Wondering about ASEAN

[Yooyung]

Hello all,

With all the hoopla surrounding ASEAN at my school, in the media and in general I was wondering if some posters that are more informed than myself could give their knowledge, ideas and opinions on whats its all about and what may happen for Thailand.

Yes, I have googled it and have a general idea but would like to hear from others as to what their thoughts are on how its all going to pan out, economically/socially etc. After all its only a bit over a year away.

Your knowledge/thoughts please.

Cheers.

[theblether]

I just answered a topic on the news thread related to CM, and ASEAN.......I've snipped it a little bit for this......

.................................................................

I think the majority of the population have heard of it, and have heard that it's coming down the road in 2015, but they don't understand or realize the implications. My ex did, as did her friends, but she was a business graduate and the majority of her friends were involved in business.

It will make a difference, of that there is no doubt. The money men will make a killing, and you'll see a flow of hot money pouring into the country causing hyper property inflation and the like.

You can be sure that there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese business people alone that will look to divest money out of the Chinese economy, and they will be looking at places like CM and thinking, cheap, cheap, cheap.

Those of us with experience in China know that the Chinese are always, I mean always, looking over their back. They rely entirely upon guanxi for advancement and protection, and if the guanxi shudders, it's a personal earthquake to them.

This is why there's an out flux of Chinese looking to secure overseas citizenship then returning to China to continue with their business. They're protecting themselves from upheaval. I personally know people that are doing exactly that.

Taking China out of the equation, you will see a river of money pouring in from the Hi-So's from Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the like too. They too will be looking to divest their wealth out of their home economies for the same reasons as the Chinese. We all know a lot of this money is ill gotten, the best thing to do with it is to legitimize it elsewhere.

This ASEAN structure is a Hi-So structure, you will be shocked at the affect it's going to have. BKK is already at London prices in many areas, I don't anticipate that in CM but there will be another surge in property costs and development, and that's why I said, but land elsewhere, hold just now, and cash in and move when the city gets over developed for you. Get one step ahead of the game.

CM in 10 years will be an entirely different place from today. I predict a Nimman belt around the moat and surrounding areas. Demolition and rebuild will be the order of the day, especially as so many buildings are coming to the end of their lives anyway due to the shocking build quality. When they get rebuilt, a nice little bill will be presented to us all.

Anyone that was here 10 or 15 years ago only will be looking on with dismay already, we will be the same people in 10 to 15 years time bemoaning losing what makes CM what it is today.

........................................................................................

Right, there seems to be a mind set among many people that the Thais will find some way out if their obligations. personally I think it's a serious Hi-So enrichment move for all Asia and it will go ahead.

[Yooyung]

Very interesting thanks.

[Yooyung]

It just seems that the level of understanding going around at the moment regarding this whole thing is pitiful...including my own i'm afraid. The other day the students went to a speaking competition titled 'Is Thailand ready for ASEAN' or something like that. I have asked a few mathayom students what they think about it all and they really don't know.

[phuketjock]

It just seems that the level of understanding going around at the moment regarding this whole thing is pitiful...including my own i'm afraid. The other day the students went to a speaking competition titled 'Is Thailand ready for ASEAN' or something like that. I have asked a few mathayom students what they think about it all and they really don't know.

Thailand has been a founder member of ASEAN ( Association of south east asia nations ) since August 1967.

You appear to be confusing ASEAN with AEC ( Asean economic community ) which is planned to happen

in 2015 and is a goal of ASEAN to have economic intigration within ASEAN by 2015.

[HardenedSoul]

I just answered a topic on the news thread related to CM, and ASEAN.......I've snipped it a little bit for this......

.................................................................

I think the majority of the population have heard of it, and have heard that it's coming down the road in 2015, but they don't understand or realize the implications. My ex did, as did her friends, but she was a business graduate and the majority of her friends were involved in business.

It will make a difference, of that there is no doubt. The money men will make a killing, and you'll see a flow of hot money pouring into the country causing hyper property inflation and the like.

You can be sure that there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese business people alone that will look to divest money out of the Chinese economy, and they will be looking at places like CM and thinking, cheap, cheap, cheap.

Those of us with experience in China know that the Chinese are always, I mean always, looking over their back. They rely entirely upon guanxi for advancement and protection, and if the guanxi shudders, it's a personal earthquake to them.

This is why there's an out flux of Chinese looking to secure overseas citizenship then returning to China to continue with their business. They're protecting themselves from upheaval. I personally know people that are doing exactly that.

Taking China out of the equation, you will see a river of money pouring in from the Hi-So's from Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the like too. They too will be looking to divest their wealth out of their home economies for the same reasons as the Chinese. We all know a lot of this money is ill gotten, the best thing to do with it is to legitimize it elsewhere.

This ASEAN structure is a Hi-So structure, you will be shocked at the affect it's going to have. BKK is already at London prices in many areas, I don't anticipate that in CM but there will be another surge in property costs and development, and that's why I said, but land elsewhere, hold just now, and cash in and move when the city gets over developed for you. Get one step ahead of the game.

CM in 10 years will be an entirely different place from today. I predict a Nimman belt around the moat and surrounding areas. Demolition and rebuild will be the order of the day, especially as so many buildings are coming to the end of their lives anyway due to the shocking build quality. When they get rebuilt, a nice little bill will be presented to us all.

Anyone that was here 10 or 15 years ago only will be looking on with dismay already, we will be the same people in 10 to 15 years time bemoaning losing what makes CM what it is today.

........................................................................................

Right, there seems to be a mind set among many people that the Thais will find some way out if their obligations. personally I think it's a serious Hi-So enrichment move for all Asia and it will go ahead.

I'll say straight off the bat that I don't have as much knowledge on this subject but aren't all these moneyed Cambodians, Chinese, Vietnamese and Indonesians moving their money from the frying pan into the fire?

It seems to me that Thailand is pretty delicately balanced politically compared to the aforementioned.

[theblether]

That's a possibility however there are issues afoot regarding international monetary transfers and the like. These guys often need to deal with compliant banks as if they start firing multiple millions and more into Western supervised banks it will raise money laundering flags everywhere. So for some on the edge flowing capital into the West is not easy.

Don't be amazed to see ( or hear of ) sack full's of currency crossing the border, I reckon that supposedly impoverished nation of Laos will be sitting on a staggering amount of Thai baht. The natural home for that will be Thailand, and Thai property in particular.

Asians will always take the attitude that property is a good bet in the long run. So I reckon they'll accept the political risk here and go for it.

There was a spending surge before the EC went to the Euro as people had to get rid of the old cash denominations, it's not directly related but I expect a surge of black money into Thailand, along with hot speculative money. In fact, one begets the other, when this market opens.

The first beneficiaries will be the Hi-So's as usual, they'll go on a spending splurge. They'll be firing corrupt money all over the place and putting the properties into family and company names to keep the cash out of the hands of their home governments.

There's a river of money coming this way, and that will cause waves in the property markets.

[Yooyung]

Will it not mean that there will be an even bigger pouring in of cheap labour from countries like Burma and Cambodia? After all a visa will not be required. There are already Vietnamese waitresses serving in some of the restaurants/bars in my area. They come cheaper apparently. Could it mean a backlash against foreign workers if jobs start to disappear?...

Also, what about Filipino teachers? I work with a few, wont they find it easier to get in, get jobs and stay in?

Curious...

[EBlair48]

It is my understanding, and I'm no expert , but only professionals will be able work freely across borders.

I think this may have a negative impact on western foreigners, we will be even lower on the totem.

Certainly Thailand's dismal English skills will be a detriment, Thais may well find themselves the servants and minimum waged labor force of ASEAN

I wonder really how much of EAC Tailand will adhere to. It may well just ignore what doesn't benefit it.

[Yooyung]

It is my understanding, and I'm no expert , but only professionals will be able work freely across borders.

I think this may have a negative impact on western foreigners, we will be even lower on the totem.

Certainly Thailand's dismal English skills will be a detriment, Thais may well find themselves the servants and minimum waged labor force of ASEAN

I wonder really how much of EAC Tailand will adhere to. It may well just ignore what doesn't benefit it.

Ok, but with people being able to stay indefinitely with no visa restrictions surely the temptation will be there to hire more Vietnamese/Burmese or whatever to do more manual labour etc. I understand that 'officially' only certain professions are included but supply and demand, free market economics and all that....I am certainly no expert either, just very interested.

[theblether]

There are some restrictions on employment however they will have even less value than the rules currently in place. We all know illegals working in this country, there will be plenty more, and apart from a few taken arrests, life will go on.

[pinfold]

I just answered a topic on the news thread related to CM, and ASEAN.......I've snipped it a little bit for this......

.................................................................

I think the majority of the population have heard of it, and have heard that it's coming down the road in 2015, but they don't understand or realize the implications. My ex did, as did her friends, but she was a business graduate and the majority of her friends were involved in business.

It will make a difference, of that there is no doubt. The money men will make a killing, and you'll see a flow of hot money pouring into the country causing hyper property inflation and the like.

You can be sure that there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese business people alone that will look to divest money out of the Chinese economy, and they will be looking at places like CM and thinking, cheap, cheap, cheap.

Those of us with experience in China know that the Chinese are always, I mean always, looking over their back. They rely entirely upon guanxi for advancement and protection, and if the guanxi shudders, it's a personal earthquake to them.

This is why there's an out flux of Chinese looking to secure overseas citizenship then returning to China to continue with their business. They're protecting themselves from upheaval. I personally know people that are doing exactly that.

Taking China out of the equation, you will see a river of money pouring in from the Hi-So's from Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the like too. They too will be looking to divest their wealth out of their home economies for the same reasons as the Chinese. We all know a lot of this money is ill gotten, the best thing to do with it is to legitimize it elsewhere.

This ASEAN structure is a Hi-So structure, you will be shocked at the affect it's going to have. BKK is already at London prices in many areas, I don't anticipate that in CM but there will be another surge in property costs and development, and that's why I said, but land elsewhere, hold just now, and cash in and move when the city gets over developed for you. Get one step ahead of the game.

CM in 10 years will be an entirely different place from today. I predict a Nimman belt around the moat and surrounding areas. Demolition and rebuild will be the order of the day, especially as so many buildings are coming to the end of their lives anyway due to the shocking build quality. When they get rebuilt, a nice little bill will be presented to us all.

Anyone that was here 10 or 15 years ago only will be looking on with dismay already, we will be the same people in 10 to 15 years time bemoaning losing what makes CM what it is today.

........................................................................................

Right, there seems to be a mind set among many people that the Thais will find some way out if their obligations. personally I think it's a serious Hi-So enrichment move for all Asia and it will go ahead.

I'll say straight off the bat that I don't have as much knowledge on this subject but aren't all these moneyed Cambodians, Chinese, Vietnamese and Indonesians moving their money from the frying pan into the fire?

It seems to me that Thailand is pretty delicately balanced politically compared to the aforementioned.

After just viewing the BBC documentary made a couple of years ago regarding Thailand and the uncertainty that will prevail in forthcoming events I would not describe Thailand as "delicately balanced" but as the ice most definitely getting thinner under its feet. Hope Im wrong but the future of farang in Thailand is most decidedly "delicately balanced"

[Yooyung]

Interesting Pinfold, where can I view that documentary?

[pinfold]

Will it not mean that there will be an even bigger pouring in of cheap labour from countries like Burma and Cambodia? After all a visa will not be required. There are already Vietnamese waitresses serving in some of the restaurants/bars in my area. They come cheaper apparently. Could it mean a backlash against foreign workers if jobs start to disappear?...

Also, what about Filipino teachers? I work with a few, wont they find it easier to get in, get jobs and stay in?

Curious...

Downloaded it from PB quite a while ago,have to dig it out,,focused mainly on 2010 and the aftermath, bit late now Ill give it to you tomorrow.

Think you know yourself what the developments will mean for Thailand,already manufacturing is being lost,to neighbouring countries,not just the rice subsidy fiasco facing it, but look at just one surrounding country,Burma,the country is one vast rice paddy, cheap land cheap labour,..the rubber tree plantations are so vast that railroad lines were laid around them,all past staple products of Thailand. Thailand ,as one poster stated does not realise what it is getting itself into

[NeverSure]

With all due respect to theblether, I don't think Thailand will integrate into AEC. Here is the short list from their web site: Link

"The AEC areas of cooperation include human resources development and capacity building; recognition of professional qualifications; closer consultation on macroeconomic and financial policies; trade financing measures; enhanced infrastructure and communications connectivity; development of electronic transactions through e-ASEAN; integrating industries across the region to promote regional sourcing; and enhancing private sector involvement for the building of the AEC. In short, the AEC will transform ASEAN into a region with free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labour, and freer flow of capital."

First, I don't see Thailand becoming transparent with "closer consultation on macroeconomic and financial policies" ever. That would require removing corruption.

Second, I don't see Thailand allowing "free movement of goods, services, investment, skilled labour, and freer flow of capital." That would mean relieving the tariffs and eliminating corruption in the duty department. It would mean allowing some non-Thais to work and Thailand is VERY protectionist rather than cooperative.

Third and most striking to me, is Thailand's belief and attitude that it is The Hub. I don't think its corrupt government or even its people will acquiesce to rules laid down by a multi-national organization. I think Thailand thinks its the best just as it is. I think the corrupt powers that enrichen themselves by running Thailand as they please are not going to truly cooperate.

I don't see any change coming at all in Thailand as a result of AEC.

Edited July 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[Yooyung]

Yes Burma could boom I guess, tourism as well will be a big draw card there ( and away from Thailand)

[Salapoo]

Unfortunately I foresee Thailand trying to take what it can, then cheat and lie on what it is supposed to give.

[WitawatWatawit]

Unfortunately I foresee Thailand trying to take what it can, then cheat and lie on what it is supposed to give.

This will be the reality, for sure. Also, couple the influx of other Asians with Thai xenophobia, and you got a powder keg waiting to explode. Rivalry between the states is well known (Preah Vihear, the border with Malaysia, Burma's traditional hatred of the Thai militia, Thai pride at getting their backside kicked by Laos, etc). There will be a lot of tears over this. In fact I'm stunned that anyone thinks it's going to go smoothly.

[EBlair48]

^^ Indeed, Thailand could become so isolationist with its selfish and non- cooperative policies, , it becomes the new Burma !!

[pinfold]

Yes Burma could boom I guess, tourism as well will be a big draw card there ( and away from Thailand)

Tourism in Burma will be a long time a'comin',its a dump,but it will cut the feet from under Thailand with rubber/rice production. Yingluk is on her travels to Africa,signing trade deals,while just signing free trade agreements with India <deleted> a country that has seen its currency collapse by 40% to a country that's appreciated by 40%.,it will be trade flowing one way

There are scenes and interviews in the BBC documentary that are not acceptable to be shown in this country( Thailand,its illegal),but the live interview shown on Thai television I was shocked by his appearance.

How many military coups in Thailand since inception? is it six or sixty?,many more to come no doubt. The military are not going to stand around and let farang witness a country tearing itself apart,think an exit strategy may be well thought out

[manhattan55]

Officially, the start data of AEC has been pushed back to 31 December 2015, so effectively 2016 or in 2.5 years.

[IMA_FARANG]

Yes I know it is the AEC (Asian Economic Community) not ASEAN.

But that's just terminology.

On thing I will say is that the AEC will (as all things do) bring a set of challenges and opportunities at the same time.

Certainly Thailand will face more competition with the implementation of AEC rules.

That could be a disadvantage for those who have become lazy with the old status quo, but it also presents new opportunities for those with the foresight to see them.

I personally think the one thing the Thais have to watch out for is Vietnam.

Half the population of Vietnam is under 30 years of age, The population is increasingly well educated, eager, and willing to work hard to succeed.

They are going to give old stodgy Thailand a run for the money. Many of their products ... particularly rice .... are very competitive with Thai products.

You can latterly sit in a bar or restaurant in Ho Chi Minh city and talk to a bargirl for an hour or two and NOT be asked to buy her a drink.

All she wants is to practice her newly learned English with you .... because many Vietnamese think speaking English well is the key to success.

Compare that with a bargirl in Patyaya.

In a decade or so, I really think Vietnam will be a rising economic power in Southeast Asia .... while I'm afraid Thailand is on the decline already.

The difference between Thailand and Vietnam is that Thailand is the old and complacent while Vietnam is the new and the eager.

The AEC will just make that fact more clear and sooner.

[IMA_FARANG]

Yes I know it is the AEC (Asian Economic Community) not ASEAN.

But that's just terminology.

On thing I will say is that the AEC will (as all things do) bring a set of challenges and opportunities at the same time.

Certainly Thailand will face more competition with the implementation of AEC rules.

That could be a disadvantage for those who have become lazy with the old status quo, but it also presents new opportunities for those with the foresight to see them.

I personally think the one thing the Thais have to watch out for is Vietnam.

Half the population of Vietnam is under 30 years of age, The population is increasingly well educated, eager, and willing to work hard to succeed.

They are going to give old stodgy Thailand a run for the money. Many of their products ... particularly rice .... are very competitive with Thai products.

You can latterly sit in a bar or restaurant in Ho Chi Minh city and talk to a bargirl for an hour or two and NOT be asked to buy her a drink.

All she wants is to practice her newly learned English with you .... because many Vietnamese think speaking English well is the key to success.

Compare that with a bargirl in Patyaya.

In a decade or so, I really think Vietnam will be a rising economic power in Southeast Asia .... while I'm afraid Thailand is on the decline already.

The difference between Thailand and Vietnam is that Thailand is the old and complacent while Vietnam is the new and the eager.

The AEC will just make that fact more clear and sooner.

[IMA_FARANG]

Yes I know it is the AEC (Asian Economic Community) not ASEAN.

But that's just terminology.

On thing I will say is that the AEC will (as all things do) bring a set of challenges and opportunities at the same time.

Certainly Thailand will face more competition with the implementation of AEC rules.

That could be a disadvantage for those who have become lazy with the old status quo, but it also presents new opportunities for those with the foresight to see them.

I personally think the one thing the Thais have to watch out for is Vietnam.

Half the population of Vietnam is under 30 years of age, The population is increasingly well educated, eager, and willing to work hard to succeed.

They are going to give old stodgy Thailand a run for the money. Many of their products ... particularly rice .... are very competitive with Thai products.

You can latterly sit in a bar or restaurant in Ho Chi Minh city and talk to a bargirl for an hour or two and NOT be asked to buy her a drink.

All she wants is to practice her newly learned English with you .... because many Vietnamese think speaking English well is the key to success.

Compare that with a bargirl in Patyaya.

In a decade or so, I really think Vietnam will be a rising economic power in Southeast Asia .... while I'm afraid Thailand is on the decline already.

The difference between Thailand and Vietnam is that Thailand is the old and complacent while Vietnam is the new and the eager.

The AEC will just make that fact more clear and sooner.

[Salapoo]

^^ Indeed, Thailand could become so isolationist with its selfish and non- cooperative policies, , it becomes the new Burma !!

Actually, there are other indications, that when 'the other unmentionable time comes', the Burmafication will really step in to overdrive.

It is hard to see the future of Thailand positively. It is of course in their own hands, which does nothing to inspire confidence.

[EBlair48]

Thais relegated to scrubbing floors and doing laundry is nothing more than what they deserve with their horrid treatment of foreigners and stubborn refusal to join the 21st century with feudally based libel laws and other such absurdities such as C E N S O R E D.

I shall watch with pleasure, from afar. Get out now while the getting is good.

Edited July 27, 2013 by EBlair48

[Salapoo]

I shall watch with pleasure, from afar. Get out now while the getting is good.

Yes, the joyful prediction of horror for their chosen host country has been going on for decades now, in the minds of many foreigners who choose to live here.

It's quite telling.

[EBlair48]

^ Perhaps, but for decades, Thailand had enjoyed its protectionist policies unencumbered, and the unmentionable has not occurred.

I've had nothing but harassment, lies and racism from Thailand, so yep, I hope it suffers most dramatically and shall enjoy it.

[pinfold]

^ Perhaps, but for decades, Thailand had enjoyed its protectionist policies unencumbered, and the unmentionable has not occurred.

I've had nothing but harassment, lies and racism from Thailand, so yep, I hope it suffers most dramatically and shall enjoy it.

The unmentionable is the closest to the end game I have ever seen a human being facing,totally shocking to observe a couple of days ago on Thai television. Its the fall out from that I think that will dwarf 2015/2016

[ChrisB87]

Well, if they move slowly and democratically (unlike the EU), there shouldn't be such a big problem (like in the EU).

From what i understand, it isn't yet clear just how unrestricted the movement of people will be and what industries they can work in....anyone heard anything about that?

Also, the integration of the poorer countries (for lack of a better word) isn't going to happen until a little later, which is probably a safe choice.

Thailand will have more tourism competitors - a good thing in my mind. Tourists are treated horribly here. Thailand needs to lose a few and learn to appreciate them. Except, of course, the sex tourists - good riddance to them!

I think it will be an interesting 'foody time'. The absence of Padang food in my life is.....well..words can't express

It may also be good for people here to realize that they are just the same as everyone else.

It may be good for teachers. I don't buy into the idea that it will get worse because there will be more Filipino teachers. Most schools want native speakers anyway - which makes sense. My ex was an Indonesian English teacher and one day i met one of her very good students, who learned very well, but she had ALL the errors my ex has - literally not one sentence was completely correct! Such a shame - she thought she was speaking perfectly because that's what she was told by her teacher! Why i think it could get better for teachers here is because not only will Thailand lose some tourists, they will also lose teachers and then they might (big might) start treating teachers better and paying better salaries.

Or maybe this is all just wishful thinking

All in all, i think it could be very very good for the region and Thailand.