Amnesty fallout: Thai govt unafraid

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT
Amnesty fallout: govt unafraid
Somroutai Sapsomboon,
Papinya Iamtarn
The Nation

Administration believes bill's opponents lack unity, resources; police prepared

BANGKOK: -- Buoyed by its successful crack-down on the anti-government Pitak Siam group last year and firmly backed by police, the Yingluck government is confident it can manage any possible political disturbances that might arise from its decision to push an amnesty bill through Parliament.

What has made the Yingluck government so adamant and bold to get on with the hottest political issue - an amnesty bill aimed at pardons for those imprisoned over political riots, and possibly helping ex-pm Thaksin Shinawatra return home - even though it risks rocking its stability in a volatile scenario?

The government has evaluated the manpower, resources and potential of its opponents and believed "police" would be able to put them under control, a source from the government camp said.

"We have estimated that the number of anti-government protesters would be just a little more than 10,000 people - while the Pitak Siam group mobilized 20,000 in November last year. Police are also confident of their capability and experience in handling the protesters," he said.

Government strategists also believe protest leaders would not be able to mobilise a mega rally because anti-government protesters have split into different groups, upholding different ideologies such as the white maskers, who have vowed to resort to only peaceful protests.

The government believes Worachai's bill is the best way out to bring about national reconciliation because the gist of the bill is to pardon every cause and every political colour, except those of "protest leaders".

Opponents of Worachai's bill however opposed "the generalisation approach" of the bill which pardons all, and are skeptical that the government may resort to an underhand tactic to incorporate reconciliation bills that benefit Thaksin and his supporters.

The reconciliation bill in question, for instance,is that of Labour Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, which pardons everybody, every case before the September 2006 coup and after, including cases involving Thaksin.

The Pheu Thai Party's Kokaew Pikulthong, a leader of the red shirts, insisted that Thaksin had nothing to gain from Worachai's bill.

In the past few days, Royal Thai Police under Police General Adul Saengsingkaew have rehearsed measures to keep law and order in case of any protest.

Bangkok Police Chief Pol Lt- General Camronwit Toopgrajank, who has come under fire for having Thaksin pin his insignia of rank shortly after his promotion last year, is a leader of the main troop for the mission.

"Police will not resort to force. But if protesters are going to block roads or lay siege to Parliament, that is not a democratic method. If there is any violence, it [will not be] caused by police. We will not allow police to carry weapons. They have only shields for self-defence," Camronwit said.

The political temperature in the next four months is expected to rise and the question is - will the government be able to withstand the political heat?

Contentious issues

The new Parliament session convening on Thursday is expected to confront contentious issues during its run to November.

_ Amnesty bill proposed by the Pheu Thai MP for Samut Prakan, Worachai Hema, which has been raised to lead the August 7 agenda.

_ Bt2.5 trillion budget bill for fiscal 2014, which is set for deliberation from August 14-15

_ Bt2 trillion loan bill for infrastructure projects, which will be up for its second reading

_ Three charter amendment bills covering four clauses - election of all 200 senators, dropping the ban from politics and penalties for party executives and dissolution of a party in case of election fraud by a party executive, requiring petitions related to the overthrowing of the government to be submitted for prior consideration by the Attorney General, and limiting requirements for parliamentary approval of international agreements.

_ National reconciliation bills

_ No-confidence debate

-- The Nation 2013-07-29

[chainarong]

The only thing this administration has to remember that it supports breaking the law, giving amnesty to people who have committed crimes , some violent , is beyond belief, you do the crime , you do the time, the international community must cringe with this governments about face , two faced policies, then again the prime example of a good citizen hides in Dubai, on the run from the law and pleading for a amnesty, so birthday boy can come home, the ball is in your court , the PTP brings no credit to Thailand with this sort of behaviour.

[waza]

Sounds like things are hotting up, the PTP led government will bulldoze their agenda through or self destruct trying. An agenda that has no benefit for the common Thai, but is a goldmine for the cabinet and will give Thaksin everything. Thaksin has spent a fortune of tax payers money buying support and countless hours of manipulating his family and sycophants into positions of control, he has gained control of a faction of the military and all of the RTP. His position is stronger, more confident, more determined and better organised than in 2006, strap yourselves in this has the potential to devolve into a bloody civil war.........

Edited July 29, 2013 by waza

[Mampara]

well guys, this is it. "Its all or nothing."

[Tatsujin]

Ah, the arrogance knows no bounds.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

[Skywalker69]

Sad times ahead.

[bkkgriz]

"Police will not resort to force. But if protesters are going to block roads or lay siege to Parliament, that is not a democratic method. If there is any violence, it [will not be] caused by police. We will not allow police to carry weapons. They have only shields for self-defence," Camronwit said.

Right. Only Red Shirts are allowed to do such things.

[ramrod711]

Bangkok Police Chief Pol Lt- General Camronwit Toopgrajank, who has come under fire for having Thaksin pin his insignia of rank shortly after his promotion last year, is a leader of the main troop for the mission.

"Police will not resort to force. But if protesters are going to block roads or lay siege to Parliament, that is not a democratic method. If there is any violence, it [will not be] caused by police. We will not allow police to carry weapons. They have only shields for self-defence," Camronwit said.

HUH?, blocking roads not a democratic method? This is Thailand, want more for your rice, block a road, same goes for milk, every other commodity and your government. If the police kill someone, Yingluck should be charged with murder and Camrinwit as an accomplice.

[OzMick]

Administration believes bill's opponents lack unity, resources

Perhaps they need an evil off-shore billionaire to supply funds and employ some agitators to unite them. That might get the administration worried.

[rosst]

This is truly tragic, I could not think of a bigger potential trigger for civil war. Their arrogance may bring them down, they may underestimate the vast number of ordinary people who may see this for what it is.

There can be no benefit to the people of Thailand from this nonsense.

[Neilly]

the Yingluck government is confident it can manage any possible political disturbances that might arise from its decision to push an amnesty bill through Parliament.

The fact that it is morally wrong is neither here nor there

[Baerboxer]

the Yingluck government is confident it can manage any possible political disturbances that might arise from its decision to push an amnesty bill through Parliament.

The fact that it is morally wrong is neither here nor there

PTPs top agenda item from day one has been to whitewash Thaksin of his conviction and get rid of the more serious outstanding charges. They initially underestimated the strength of the opposition or the complexity of bending round exisiting legislation. Now, after 2 years of careful planning they have undermined the opposition to a point where they feel confident to go ahead. YL becomig DM, and the "neutral" comments coming out from senior military officials are finial pieces in their jigsaw. YLs ignoring of the Ombudsman's question on the illegal passport, pushing ahead with the water management project after paying lip service to the courts directives for EIAs etc, continuing with the rice scam, and getting their hands on 2.2 trillion that can be spent without parliaments approval are signs of confidence. They aren't worried about all the problems of a few weeks ago anymore for some reason.

Interesting to see if a whitewashed fugitive can return and become (formally) head of a government without being elected in any capacity. Or maybe just continue to pull the strings and make all the decisions without any formal title.

PTP will only feel threatend by the military. If they believe the military are neutral, or worse still, under there control, then Thailand's in for a very rough ride.

[bigbamboo]

You would think that for any government to override the law there would have to at least be a national referendum on the issue. With all the nonsense figures bandied about who knows exactly what percentage of the country agrees with the amnesty proposals now.

I would be very surprised if it was anywhere near fifty per cent.

[waza]

You would think that for any government to override the law there would have to at least be a national referendum on the issue. With all the nonsense figures bandied about who knows exactly what percentage of the country agrees with the amnesty proposals now.

I would be very surprised if it was anywhere near fifty per cent.

Considering there is only about 77 redshirts in prison (and they have all been financially compensated for it) its hard to believe that the average Thai has anything to gain from the amnesty proposal, its the politicians that will be the main beneficiaries. Puah through the amnesty bill, then its the 2.5 trillion baht loan to pay off Thaksin's debts and constitutional changes to erase his conviction. Ta da Thaksin dictatorship.

Edited July 29, 2013 by waza

[marell]

You would think that for any government to override the law there would have to at least be a national referendum on the issue. With all the nonsense figures bandied about who knows exactly what percentage of the country agrees with the amnesty proposals now.

I would be very surprised if it was anywhere near fifty per cent.

Doesn't matter what the country thinks. And after the Amnesia Program is enacted it really won't matter.

[Robby nz]

Of course they are afraid.

If they are not then why are they mobilizing the police and sucking up to the army?

This stuff is going out on the Thai media and is designed to put people off coming out and protesting.

And what about; 'not going to let people come in from other parts of the country', another sign of fear.

And the police wont be armed, only shields, the lumps of wood that go with them and their normal side arms.

[Sunderland]

" ... forgive them (the populace who stand by and do nothing) for they do not know what they are doing."

[HoudiniXLogic]

Seeing as how angry Thai people can be and how many have taken more extreme measures lately, Thaksin would need his own Popemobile equivalent if he ever wants to do anything in Thailand if and when he returns.

[robblok]

This is truly tragic, I could not think of a bigger potential trigger for civil war. Their arrogance may bring them down, they may underestimate the vast number of ordinary people who may see this for what it is.

There can be no benefit to the people of Thailand from this nonsense.

I hope you are right but personally I think this will just be pushed through and there wont be enough resistance. The yellows are not united and are not a big force. Also they don't protest like the reds they never come up in large numbers as they are not paid to do so.

My prediction.. nothing will happen. (i hope i have to eat those words)

[ratcatcher]

" ... forgive them (the populace who stand by and do nothing) for they do not know what they are doing."

To borrow Oz Mick's signature, let us not forget these words.

"In order for evil to flourish, all that is required is for good men to do nothing." Edmund Burke.

The mere fact that all these forces are ready to be arrayed against an unknown opposition of Thai people who do not agree with PTP's amnesty bills, shows just how scared the government really is.

I hope many people show their true feelings and show up and support the opposition to this madness.

[annabel]

You would think that for any government to override the law there would have to at least be a national referendum on the issue. With all the nonsense figures bandied about who knows exactly what percentage of the country agrees with the amnesty proposals now.

I would be very surprised if it was anywhere near fifty per cent.

I don't know if my memory is failing me but was there not suppose to be a referendum agreed to months ago when this issue was very hot then too...? And if I remember correctly it was suppose to be that first a referendum and if was positive then ok the green light to make all the changes they want ... ??? Or is that just another bad dream I had ...

[robblok]

You would think that for any government to override the law there would have to at least be a national referendum on the issue. With all the nonsense figures bandied about who knows exactly what percentage of the country agrees with the amnesty proposals now.

I would be very surprised if it was anywhere near fifty per cent.

I don't know if my memory is failing me but was there not suppose to be a referendum agreed to months ago when this issue was very hot then too...? And if I remember correctly it was suppose to be that first a referendum and if was positive then ok the green light to make all the changes they want ... ??? Or is that just another bad dream I had ...

Of course no referendum that would mean they could loose or not get the majority they wanted.

[billd766]

the Yingluck government is confident it can manage any possible political disturbances that might arise from its decision to push an amnesty bill through Parliament.

The fact that it is morally wrong is neither here nor there

What have morals and the PTP government have in common?

Err, nothing at all.