Army notifies Bangkok of impending tank maneuver

[Thai at Heart]

I think geriatrickid's analayis is plausible and I seriously doubt the coup rumors. Khun Yingluck's administration seems to avoid confronting the Thai military, so why would they depose a relatively supportive administration? Another coup could ignite a civil war and no one wants that.

You underestimate how much the old power brokers stand to lose if he comes back. He will dismantle their businesses and protection piece by piece.

Weren't foreign banks supposed to be able to enter the domestic market in a year or two?

[chas39]

Here's a trailer:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-oikrsZcEo

[Emptyset]

Idle speculation but IMO the Yuthasak tape was a real game changer, as it carved in stone Thaksin's aspirations to be clearly seen by all. Remember on the tape He says that upon His return that He will be above and beyond politics by assuming control of the CPB. If alarm bells didn't start ringing then...

Apologies for capitalizing the word He but I am trying to get into the habit in case He is successful.

I hope that there will not be a coup, it will allow Him to perpetualise His legend of greatness and benevolence and allow Him to continue playing the victim card. PTP must crash and burn by their own greed and stupidity. The necessary lowering of the rice pledging price at some stage in the near future, and the difficulty to blame that on Abhisit will cause unrest such that PTP may be praying for a coup as an exit strategy to save some face.

you are right. Even if it needs a crash like 1997. It is still better. If the army makes a coup, the next government will have to save money. Than they can tell under PTP everything was better. There were a lot talks from Thaksin and his son that shouldn't leave any doubts what he intents. Btw. what is the meaning of CPB?

Crown Property bureau

really he told that?

He said he'd volunteer himself as an advisor to the CPB, obviously in a bid to prove his royalist credentials. He didn't say he'd 'assume control of it', lol.

[Emptyset]

Well as one who would be in favour of a coup, I can't help feeling the signature is all wrong. Consider for a moment the way this is being done. Maybe.....maybe

- the Shin Clan preparations have been very thorough in terms of putting the right people in the right positions. Their Majesties, like many heads of state don't just decide to go to Hua Hin, they would be advised to go for health benefits, tradition etc and perhaps security, so off they go. Bangkok is now clear. Thaksin moves 'his' army out on routine manouvers with the statement that has the whole country buzzing thinking 'ha ha watch out Yingluck and Thaksin a coup is in the making', but it is really a security cordon - for Thaksin and PTP. Let red foot soldiers in, keep anyone else out. Amnesty bill passed, Thaksin fly's into Bangkok the day after. Bam! Nothing anyone else can do. Check! (not quite mate!). Commence the break-up towards civil war. The Army fractures as those loyal officers realise what their 'exercise' and 'manouvers' are all about, big struggle at the top of the armed forces to maintain control of an organization that has always been loyal to monarchy only. The rally point of course for the people and loyal army is now in Hua Hin NOT Bangkok. Thaksin is deceitful, conniving and I just can't believe that he would fall for this again, he has been meticulous in his planning so far. The wolf in sheeps clothing could be wearing the red cloak this time !!!

Intriguing thesis. I'm sure Thaksin wishes things were actually this way. Unfortunately for him, he's in exactly the same situation as he was in 2006. He's tried to 'put people in the right positions' sure, but the army and those behind the scenes who hold the real power aren't stupid either. Thaksin's got the First Army Region commander, just as he had with Gen Prin in 06. But subordinates aren't necessarily loyal to him. Gen Prawit commands loyalty right down to Col. level throughout the army. That means he holds all the cards and this would take Thaksin years to undo. Besides which, one of the returning units is the 2nd Cavalry Unit - the 'coup unit' - and the guy rumoured to be co-ordinating the anti-govt protests - behind the scenes of/c - was previously commander of that unit*. I believe he still reckons to command at least some loyalty within the unit, whether he really does or not, who knows. Also, the idea that this government had any say w/r/t the Hua Hin trip borders on the ridiculous. Though I tend to agree that this hasn't happened for unrelated reasons.

However, I doubt these manouvres have anything to do with the current situation. We'll see. I suspect Thaksin's opponents with influence over the military will wait and see as far as this protest goes. If the time is right, if there's enough violence, then they'll intervene and make it worse. And they won't necessarily be in uniform. The government needn't be ousted by an official coup, with the military in full garb and official looking papers being signed. There are other ways to play it. They'll watch and wait. And if it doesn't look to be happening, if there's a lack of incident or not enough people to make anything happen, then they'll sit back and wait for another opportunity. Of course, I do think there are stragetic reasons why Thaksin's opponents might want to move as soon as possible, and those aren't necessarily related to Thaksin's imminent arrival home (that's just the way they're putting it across in public, in reality, I'm not sure they think that this bill is crucial in that respect, if that's even their main concern).

*Well, isn't there always an ageing general pulling strings behind the curtain? Or at least rumours of such. This time it's a former Senator and noted opponent of Thaksin for the last decade or so, perhaps best known for leading two failed coups in the early 80s. He had a reputation for being 'ruthess' so we'll see how that plays out (if true, of course).

[tingtongteesood]

Maybe time for a coup. After all I think Thailand leads the worlds for coups.

Yeah, this is the hub of coups, one of the few 'hub' titles it actually deserves....

[sunshine51]

I think geriatrickid's analayis is plausible and I seriously doubt the coup rumors. Khun Yingluck's administration seems to avoid confronting the Thai military, so why would they depose a relatively supportive administration? Another coup could ignite a civil war and no one wants that.

Are you sure that nobody wants a civil war? There are some groups here who look fondly on the days of the Khmer Rouge.

That may be true however the Khmer Rouge were not conducting a "civil war" on or in

LOS. Gotta go a bit East for that and after the Viets invaded in 1979.

[GrantSmith]

I noted the spike in aluminium prices over the least couple of days has spiked...

Jus' sayin'

[EyesWideOpen]

I noted the spike in aluminium prices over the least couple of days has spiked...

Jus' sayin'

???? More canned beer for army troops ?? :-)

Edited August 3, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[rubl]

Apart from their condos how many posters on here have any business interests here?

The tourism industry is recovering. Record numbers on Samui. Things are picking up.

The military budget is up so what gives?

Not going to happen

I'm not sure how relevant the 'military budget is up' really is in relation to the topic unless they're somewhat frustrated that even the PM ('s office) got a larget Baht increase proposed.for 2013/2014

In the proposal presented in April we had "The Interior Ministry got Bt320 billion, Bt20 billion more; the Public Health Ministry got Bt100 billion, Bt6.4 billion more; the PM's Office got Bt31 billion, up by Bt6.2 billion; the Defence Ministry Bt184 billion, up by Bt4.2 billion; and the Finance Ministry Bt229 billion, up by Bt4.2 billion."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/635118-thai-ministries-allowed-bigger-budgets-as-independent-agencies-have-theirs-slashed/?hl=%2Bbudget+%2Bdefence+%2Bparliament+%2B2014

[rubl]

Personally I'm really surprised that till know I haven't heard anything from our 'coup warner' k. Jatuporn or our 'always in the know' Minister of Labour Pol. Captain Chalerm. That really worries me

Edited August 3, 2013 by rubl

[zydeco]

Personally I'm really surprised that till know I haven't heard anything from our 'coup warner' k. Jatuporn or our 'always in the know' Minister of Labour Pol. Captain Chalerm. That really worries me

You think they've already skidaddled?

[GrantSmith]

Personally I'm really surprised that till know I haven't heard anything from our 'coup warner' k. Jatuporn or our 'always in the know' Minister of Labour Pol. Captain Chalerm. That really worries me

You think they've already skidaddled?

I noticed a couple of police escort convoys on Rama 2 tonight on my way home...

Again... Price of aluminium folks

[tominbkk]

Here's a trailer:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-oikrsZcEo

Wow! So here we go!

[OzMick]

I think geriatrickid's analayis is plausible and I seriously doubt the coup rumors. Khun Yingluck's administration seems to avoid confronting the Thai military, so why would they depose a relatively supportive administration? Another coup could ignite a civil war and no one wants that.

Perhaps because they are corrupt and inept. With the rice scam currently estimated at B600 billion and continuing to grow, unable to be stopped because their support base would evaporate, while at the same time looking to borrow for a spending spree that will take a lifetime to repay, and pushing through divisive legislation to suit their criminal boss - I can't see any good reason NOT to have a coup.

[Thai at Heart]

Korn just flashed a message up on his facebook, that he is holed up in hospital somewhere with dengue.

puts him nicely away from being accused of any wrongdoing whatsoever. What odds Abhisit takes a trip to the Uk tomorrow, and decides not to return for a while. Now that would stymie Thaksin 110%. Abhisit is British after all, also.

[EyesWideOpen]

Personally I'm really surprised that till know I haven't heard anything from our 'coup warner' k. Jatuporn or our 'always in the know' Minister of Labour Pol. Captain Chalerm. That really worries me

I think you are right, odd not to hear from Chalerm... I guess the next most important thing to look for would be Thaksin relatives fleeing to Hong Kong for " sudden" shopping trips... :-)

Korn with dengue fever?? Wow, what are the odds.......

Edited August 3, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[brd]

Army Notifies Bangkok Of Impending Tank Maneuver

KHAOSOD English

BANGKOK: -- The Royal Thai Army has confirmed it was about to roll tanks into streets of Bangkok, but don′t panic, it would be merely part of routine work, according to the statement released by the army.

Apparently conscious of the rumour about possible military coup circulating around the country, the army took pain to announce in advance the plans of various armoured divisions to move their armaments for field work practice outside of Bangkok throughout the month.

On 6 August, the 1st Division King′s Guard will move their armaments from 4th Cavalry Division in Dusit district to Phahonyothin Train Station, via Kiak Kai intersection route, the statement reads.The equipment will then be transported to Kanchanaburi Train Station.

"The troop will come back to Bangkok with their armaments on 17 August via the same route," it says.

Later, the army announced, the 2nd Chivalry Division King′s Guard will move their armaments back from the training ground in Lopburi Province to Phahonyothin Train Station on 9 August, before transporting the equipment to the barracks on Kiak Kai Road and Sanam Pao area.

Another series of maneuver will occur on 19 August, according to the army. On that day, the Antiaircraft Division will transport equipments from their Pahonyothin Barrack to Kiak Kai Barrack by train, then continue toward Lopburi Province on army vehicles. The armaments is scheduled to return to Bangkok on 23 August.

A spokeswoman of the military apologised for inconvenience that may occur from the transportation of troop and armaments.

“This is not a preparation for a coup d’état”, she said.

As anti-government protests were set to take place in Bangkok and fears about possible unrest returned to the capital city, many are whispering that the military might take advantage of the situation and put an end to the elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, similar to what happened to her brother Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra in September 2006.

Full story: http://www.khaosod.co.th/en/view_newsonline.php?newsid=TVRNM05UUTFNVFk0TVE9PQ==

-- KHAOSOD English 2013-08-03

would the Thai Army starting to be fed up with the Thai Politicians and prepare a repeat of what they did to oust Thaksin ? same in the summer they moved in BKK the tanks discreetly....!

[BhaktaJosh]

Hua Hin real estate just went up in value!

[NanLaew]

This thread has gone a bit quiet but then again, it IS Sunday after all. Everyone with a viewpoint must be down the pub for the carvery I guess.

[harrry]

Message has been sent...then reinforced. We can only wait to see if it has been received.

[ajarnpot]

Don't let the cambodians know though. Not many countries out there let everyone know about troop movements.

Hello people of Gaza, please fear not, our tanks are undertaking a troop movement , we will be taking the road through the Negev. sorry to startle you

[thinkingofhow]

Of course you do. You are probably one of the paid government employees on here all day, paid to cover up the truth, and support the army, while discrediting the government.

You think we are not aware of the armies disinformation online.

Sent from my HTC One using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[hawker9000]

Of course you do. You are probably one of the paid government employees on here all day, paid to cover up the truth, and support the army, while discrediting the government.

You think we are not aware of the armies disinformation online.

Sent from my HTC One using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

A little hard to believe the govt would expend resources to try & curry favor with foreigners & expats whose opinions only really matter to themselves... I'm all for expressing our opinions here, but I don't delude myself into thinking it carries any weight whatsoever with Thais. Besides that, I don't think either side of any question ever has any problem finding expression here. Some occasional monitoring is probably as far as it goes I'd imagine. Active disinformation? Nah.