Future of Chiang Mai (regarding ASEAN / AEC)

[Dante99]

Thailand will be slow to implement all the AEC plans, they are already delaying. A lot to loose.

[richard10365]

Thailand will be slow to implement all the AEC plans, they are already delaying. A lot to loose.

Hi Dante, I think many people are not aware of what is and what is not being accomplished because what is published sometimes is not easy to find. Keep in mind AEC measurable objectives are based on the AEC Blueprint.

I have found a scorecard (see the attached file) on the AEC integration process. This only goes to 2011 so we can assume much more than is listed has been accomplished. Thailand is doing ok. According to the scorecard, Thailand is a bit slow on the free flow of investment. Other than that, they are in step with the other 9 countries.

It's not just you that seems to be uninformed, most of Thailand, to include most of the foreigners here, are like this.

AEC Scorecard 2012.pdf

[dighambara]

I suspect the greatest impact will be to the NorthEast, Udon Thani, Nong Khai and Vientienne, as China is already building infrastructure into Laos on to Vientienne. This is also the area with the best roads, Thanks to the American need for fuel, arms and ammo during the last major IndoChina War.

I am often astonished at how the population as a whole has forgotten the English language, although I do often meet older folks who speak excellent English. People who worked on the American Airbases or at nearby clubs.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Marc Faber says invest in Thailand where the best ASSets are located

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3BxL-vCp0I

I don't think this was filmed in Chiang Mai. However if I'm wrong, will someone please point me to this part of town?

Pattaya.

Good weekend trip.

[Cobragold]

It's a great question. I've been studying this own my own for a year or two now. It's good you narrowed your question down to the AEC.

Most people don't realize the AEC is only one aspect of ASEAN integration that is scheduled for 2015. Most people also don't know how extensive the AEC integration process will be. Most people think ASEAN plans to flip a switch in 2015 and shazam! Nothing could be further from the truth. The AEC started integration in 2008 and will is scheduled to finish integration in 2015.

Studying the AEC Blueprint (click here) is a great place to start. Goals and measurable objectives on the integration process can be found here. What has been accomplished can also be found on the AEC website but there is a learning curve to navigating the website and finding these nuggets of information.

According to the AEC Blueprint,

• An ASEAN single market and production base shall comprise five core elements: (i) free

  flow of goods; (ii) free flow of services; (iii) free flow of investment; (iv) freer flow of capital; and

  (v) free flow of skilled labour.

This is about as basic of an answer to your question as you can get. It's a lot more complicated than that. The good news is about 70% of the AEC's objectives have been accomplished.

The free flow of goods is mostly complete. Tariffs are 0-5%. The free flow of skilled services will have a soft launch next year and full launch in 2015.

The ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) covers investments in ASEAN. Many details of the ACIA have already been laid out and might explain the next construction in Chiang Mai with the new malls and movie theatre.

Keep in mind, reading through the ASEAN Charter will also help answer many questions about ASEAN. If you have more questions please feel free to ask. I will try to research it.The more I study, the more I know.

Hi Richard,

I cannot find the part where there will be a free flow of skilled workers within ASEAN. I am currently residing in Singapore and have not heard about this. The urgent govt. has stopped foreigners from coming here to work as they started to control the number of work permits given out.

Thanks for your good write up.

[Cobragold]

It's a great question. I've been studying this own my own for a year or two now. It's good you narrowed your question down to the AEC.

Most people don't realize the AEC is only one aspect of ASEAN integration that is scheduled for 2015. Most people also don't know how extensive the AEC integration process will be. Most people think ASEAN plans to flip a switch in 2015 and shazam! Nothing could be further from the truth. The AEC started integration in 2008 and will is scheduled to finish integration in 2015.

Studying the AEC Blueprint (click here) is a great place to start. Goals and measurable objectives on the integration process can be found here. What has been accomplished can also be found on the AEC website but there is a learning curve to navigating the website and finding these nuggets of information.

According to the AEC Blueprint,

• An ASEAN single market and production base shall comprise five core elements: (i) free

  flow of goods; (ii) free flow of services; (iii) free flow of investment; (iv) freer flow of capital; and

  (v) free flow of skilled labour.

This is about as basic of an answer to your question as you can get. It's a lot more complicated than that. The good news is about 70% of the AEC's objectives have been accomplished.

The free flow of goods is mostly complete. Tariffs are 0-5%. The free flow of skilled services will have a soft launch next year and full launch in 2015.

The ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) covers investments in ASEAN. Many details of the ACIA have already been laid out and might explain the next construction in Chiang Mai with the new malls and movie theatre.

Keep in mind, reading through the ASEAN Charter will also help answer many questions about ASEAN. If you have more questions please feel free to ask. I will try to research it.The more I study, the more I know.

Hi Richard,

I cannot find the part where there will be a free flow of skilled workers within ASEAN. I am currently residing in Singapore and have not heard about this. The urgent govt. has stopped foreigners from coming here to work as they started to control the number of work permits given out.

Thanks for your good write up.

Sorry,

Urgent should be current govt. also note that if free flow of skilled workers should become a reality, why would the workers want to go to CM or Thailand in the first place, being the only first world country in the region, it would be more logical for them to come to Singapore, a waiter or server as it is called here would be earning easily S1500 or B37500 a month not including tips. Cost of living is high ,but they would rough it out for a few years then go home and open some business or buy land to work on. Locals here are trying to find another place to retire as the cost here is way too high.

[Dante99]

Thailand will be slow to implement all the AEC plans, they are already delaying. A lot to loose.

Hi Dante, I think many people are not aware of what is and what is not being accomplished because what is published sometimes is not easy to find. Keep in mind AEC measurable objectives are based on the AEC Blueprint.

I have found a scorecard (see the attached file) on the AEC integration process. This only goes to 2011 so we can assume much more than is listed has been accomplished. Thailand is doing ok. According to the scorecard, Thailand is a bit slow on the free flow of investment. Other than that, they are in step with the other 9 countries.

It's not just you that seems to be uninformed, most of Thailand, to include most of the foreigners here, are like this.

Thanks, I certainly do not claim to be well informed about it but recall reading about Thai delays in recent years, after 2011. The article mentioned one delay and expectations of more but that was in a newspaper.

[richard10365]

It's a great question. I've been studying this own my own for a year or two now. It's good you narrowed your question down to the AEC.

Most people don't realize the AEC is only one aspect of ASEAN integration that is scheduled for 2015. Most people also don't know how extensive the AEC integration process will be. Most people think ASEAN plans to flip a switch in 2015 and shazam! Nothing could be further from the truth. The AEC started integration in 2008 and will is scheduled to finish integration in 2015.

Studying the AEC Blueprint (click here) is a great place to start. Goals and measurable objectives on the integration process can be found here. What has been accomplished can also be found on the AEC website but there is a learning curve to navigating the website and finding these nuggets of information.

According to the AEC Blueprint,

• An ASEAN single market and production base shall comprise five core elements: (i) free

  flow of goods; (ii) free flow of services; (iii) free flow of investment; (iv) freer flow of capital; and

  (v) free flow of skilled labour.

This is about as basic of an answer to your question as you can get. It's a lot more complicated than that. The good news is about 70% of the AEC's objectives have been accomplished.

The free flow of goods is mostly complete. Tariffs are 0-5%. The free flow of skilled services will have a soft launch next year and full launch in 2015.

The ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) covers investments in ASEAN. Many details of the ACIA have already been laid out and might explain the next construction in Chiang Mai with the new malls and movie theatre.

Keep in mind, reading through the ASEAN Charter will also help answer many questions about ASEAN. If you have more questions please feel free to ask. I will try to research it.The more I study, the more I know.

Hi Richard,

I cannot find the part where there will be a free flow of skilled workers within ASEAN. I am currently residing in Singapore and have not heard about this. The urgent govt. has stopped foreigners from coming here to work as they started to control the number of work permits given out.

Thanks for your good write up.

Sorry,

Urgent should be current govt. also note that if free flow of skilled workers should become a reality, why would the workers want to go to CM or Thailand in the first place, being the only first world country in the region, it would be more logical for them to come to Singapore, a waiter or server as it is called here would be earning easily S1500 or B37500 a month not including tips. Cost of living is high ,but they would rough it out for a few years then go home and open some business or buy land to work on. Locals here are trying to find another place to retire as the cost here is way too high.

Hi CobraGold, I should have said the freer movement of skilled labor. It's not totally a free for all. As the skilled labor part implies, you will need to be certified properly.

I hadn't heard that the current government is stopping foreigners from coming there. However, it does seem smart. Singapore has the highest GDP/Capita in all of the ASEAN countries. It is a very attractive labor market for foreigners from ASEAN to come work. Once the process described in the AEC Blueprint is implemented, Singapore will be able to source labor in a more efficient way from ASEAN so it should be easy to meet labor shortages with skilled labor at lower princes than hiring western labor.

The question about Chiang Mai is, will labor in Chiang Mai look to economies that can pay better wages outside Chiang Mai, either in Bangkok or countries like Singapore?

The other comment someone made, why would someone want to come to Chiang Mai? Because Chiang Mai still pays better than where they come from. 300 baht a day is still better than some countries. Part of the agreement is these workers will get the same salaries as Thai workers. This is much less than what you have to hire westerners. This is why westerners need to be concerned if they are working here. From a business point of view, it makes good business sense not to hire westerners because there is enough available talent that can be sourced from an ASEAN population of 600 million people.

[richard10365]

I can't remember if I posted this or not. Attached is the AEC Blueprint.

ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2008.pdf

[femi fan]

Well, chiang mai will be affected uniquely because it's chiang mai, but probably the main influence of the AEC will be how it impacts on thailand in general.

The best way perhaps to predict how things will pan out for thailand and chiang mai is to investigate how things went/are going in the EC over in europe. Countries like spain, italy, greece, portugal, cyprus all have had problems with the common currency and their citizens have lost their formerly leisurely laid-back inexpensive fun lifestyle. Much like what is happening in thailand these years, even without a common currency yet.

Instead new words like economy, profit, leaner workforce, more competitive, come into play, guiding the life and culture of a people. It's all about money, finance, profit for the corporations, and a citizenry who have to work longer hours to get less spending money. A few at the top will benefit, will earn a lot more than now, but in general an easy culture for the mass of the people gets replaced by a less humane one where people become numbers and nobody cares about their neighbours any more.

Beware debt, it comes back to haunt you. Individuals and nations.

[richard10365]

Well, chiang mai will be affected uniquely because it's chiang mai, but probably the main influence of the AEC will be how it impacts on thailand in general.

The best way perhaps to predict how things will pan out for thailand and chiang mai is to investigate how things went/are going in the EC over in europe. Countries like spain, italy, greece, portugal, cyprus all have had problems with the common currency and their citizens have lost their formerly leisurely laid-back inexpensive fun lifestyle. Much like what is happening in thailand these years, even without a common currency yet.

Instead new words like economy, profit, leaner workforce, more competitive, come into play, guiding the life and culture of a people. It's all about money, finance, profit for the corporations, and a citizenry who have to work longer hours to get less spending money. A few at the top will benefit, will earn a lot more than now, but in general an easy culture for the mass of the people gets replaced by a less humane one where people become numbers and nobody cares about their neighbours any more.

Beware debt, it comes back to haunt you. Individuals and nations.

That's what I am writing my thesis on.

Well, part of it is the EU/ASEAN comparision. The other is the actual research in Chiang Mai on my specific topic.

Edited September 14, 2013 by richard10365

[Cobragold]

I can't remember if I posted this or not. Attached is the AEC Blueprint.

Thanks Richard, this really helps me. I don't understand why this is not a hot topic in Singapore and Malaysian news as it will have a real big impact on the two nations. Malaysia currently has a big problem with illegal workers from Indonesia. Estimate about 1 million over there and when they are out of work, they resort to crime. Giving Malaysia a bad reputation.

Singapore govt. started to control the number of workers from outside as they caused an artificial wage cap here as employers could hire them cheaper then locals. So come 2015, even skilled workers would have a hard time to work in Singapore with work permit quota in place.

[LarryBird]

Thailand will get crushed by the hungrier countries with fewer barriers to entry for business.

[femi fan]

Thailand will get crushed by the hungrier countries with fewer barriers to entry for business.

Thailand will never get crushed. It's far too strong, and that's a consequence of the strength and spunk of its people. The only danger is that the thai people become too globalised or westernised.

The great thing about thailand is that its people are pragmatic, well-meaning, and live in a country that has abundance and beauty.

The bad thing is that they will be unnecessarily influenced by the AEC, and the EC that is the warning for the AEC, which is unlikely to be heeded. The bad thing for thailand, as for most nations, is the the politicians that run the nation. They simply rubber-stamp the desires of the corporations.

[LarryBird]

LOL, where do you live?

If you think the politicians are of no result of the actions and decisions of the citizens, than I don't know what to say.

[femi fan]

Assuming you're talking to me, chiang mai is where i live.

I don't really know what you're trying to say here. I didn't make any link between the politicians and the citizens.

But what i will say is that citizens in a country are given two or three main choices at election time. And that's the limit of their choice. If they're all bad, then that's a bit of a rum do for everybody. Because if there's no-one good to vote for, then we're left to vote for the less-bad option, or nobody.

Some choice.

[Mapguy]

FF,

Is that really correct?! Not that I disagree with your assertion about rum choices! Nonetheless, have you looked at a lot of ballots in many countries?

People are often presented many choices, often a confusing array of choices, but because of lack of education, interest, too diversely-segmented beliefs, or just laziness, the level of effective participation can be low. Democratic initiatives often fail because of this.

But I do hope we get back to the point of this thread. PM me if you wish to chat about the asides!

Also, can we talk here about ASEAN impact upon Chiang Mai, please ?!

Edited September 17, 2013 by Mapguy

[Mapguy]

Is this thread getting off point? WHat about ASEAN and its impact upon Thailand, please!