Changing China Set to Shake World Economy, Again

[SinglePot]

"Implosion in China will not be good news for anyone." folium

The free world would need to find alternatives.

And they will.

Goodnight Beijing.

[FDog]

Here is a link to the Q & A program from Australia in relation to China and the economy. Interesting, for those that can be bothered.

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3849933.htm

In relation to China it starts around the 8 minute mark.

Edited October 13, 2013 by FDog

[Publicus]

Hey pal, who's excited here?

I'm simply responding to you in kind. You're the guy who presented a post a fifth of a page long of all kinds of data, data that went far beyond anything contained in my post to which you chose to respond.

You don't answer my questions, choosing instead to try to lecture me about PPP, emerging economies and the like. Why are you non-responsive? Rather than engaging in a discussion, you choose to pontificate, and to pontificate to those who have surpassed your doctrines; the non-convertible.

Unfortunately, I need to reiterate that, while PPP is a normal and common means of measurement, it is used cynically and deviously by the CCP in Beijing. The CCP uses the inherently higher PPP figure to disguise its steadily declining GDP data. You fail to recognize this, talking past it and me.

All the same, however, the population of the PRC can and does feel, see and know the declining GDP. So it's just more of the same baloney out of Beijing, which is constantly refusing to face reality.

Hopefully you can face, recognize and accept the fact of what I say.

[SinglePot]

PPP, GDP, Rosy Futures.

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/the-chinese-dream-from-mao-to-xi/

BTW. Check out the photograph. Xi Jinping looks decidedly uncomfortable surrounded by what appears to be US military.

555

[folium]

Hey pal, who's excited here?

I'm simply responding to you in kind. You're the guy who presented a post a fifth of a page long of all kinds of data, data that went far beyond anything contained in my post to which you chose to respond.

You don't answer my questions, choosing instead to try to lecture me about PPP, emerging economies and the like. Why are you non-responsive? Rather than engaging in a discussion, you choose to pontificate, and to pontificate to those who have surpassed your doctrines; the non-convertible.

Unfortunately, I need to reiterate that, while PPP is a normal and common means of measurement, it is used cynically and deviously by the CCP in Beijing. The CCP uses the inherently higher PPP figure to disguise its steadily declining GDP data. You fail to recognize this, talking past it and me.

All the same, however, the population of the PRC can and does feel, see and know the declining GDP. So it's just more of the same baloney out of Beijing, which is constantly refusing to face reality.

Hopefully you can face, recognize and accept the fact of what I say.

If you are referring to yourself as the "non-convertible" due to the fact that you have surpassed my "doctrines" (which are?), it seems that you are not really interested in a discussion and actually what you are requiring me to do is "face, recognize and accept the fact of what (you) say".....

Interesting "discussion" strategy.

Anyhow my POV is quite simple. I have no love whatsoever for the authoritarian government of China but they are now an integral and key player in the global market, economy and increasingly the geopolitical sphere. To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties.

You are quite right to say that China is now facing a huge challenge as it moves from the initial phase of economic integration with the global market and poverty reduction, to what the government hopes is a more long-term sustainable trajectory.

This summary from the WB I would agree with 100%...

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country is without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!

As in so much else China is probably the regional or even global leader in these negative characteristics. Its recent reemergence onto the geopolitical stage is also potentially alarming.

China is now very much tied into the global economy which has been to all of us hugely advantageous. The flip side though is that a dramatic implosion and/ or violent regime change would be a global catastrophe and not one that could be quickly or simply shrugged off.

Sadly obvious alternatives are now less clear cut than in previous decades. The financial crises since 2008, the shameful smallmindedness currently on display within the Beltway, the myopic, timid ostriches of the EU and the shambles that stems from shoddy governance in India, much of Africa and Latin America, are hardly shining symbols of a better choice and actually reinforce the CCP's position.

The recent history of China has been far from perfect but its citizens have seen a marked improvement in their lives, if only in an economic sense. It would be to everyone's advantage that the political changes that should, could occur in China happen in a controlled, measured and thus most likely slow-time fashion.

We both seem to want the same outcome but differ in terms of time-scale and concern about the possible repercussions.

[SinglePot]

Much of the post from folium makes sense to me and seems to be written honestly.

I am not totally in accord with this though:

"To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties."

They've creamed it while the going has been good and a lot of people have got wealthy and many have got extremely rich.

[SinglePot]

And I remain to be convinced that the Chinese Communist Party are the financial wizards of the world.

The Original Post, the more times I read it the less convinced I am of its accuracy.

Looks a bit too much like how China would like it to be.

I am not an economist so I don't know what the cold hard money facts are...but I know the CCP are as dodgy as hell.

[LawrenceChee]

As promised by Premier Li earlier this year, the 2nd revision of the party rule book to cut red tape has begun.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-08/30/content_16932870.htm

China is establishing steps to further enhance trade with ASEAN partners being the first foreign leaders to be invited to address Thailand and Indonesian parliaments and using the recent APEC trip to seal deals with Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

This is taking full advantage of the lull happening in the rest of the world right now.

Next stop just arriving in Hanoi today where Premier Li is again going to reinforce the importance of dialogue with Vietnam over its territorial disputes.

I know the west judge China to engage themselves in talk diplomacy...however those who understand the Asian ways know the importance of talk and being patient at talking over vague points is the Asian way of avoiding conflict.

Would take a while for the western powers to understand this is how Asians have been doing it for centuries and will not change for more to come.

[LawrenceChee]

And I remain to be convinced that the Chinese Communist Party are the financial wizards of the world.

The Original Post, the more times I read it the less convinced I am of its accuracy.

Looks a bit too much like how China would like it to be.

I am not an economist so I don't know what the cold hard money facts are...but I know the CCP are as dodgy as hell.

Maybe of interest for those who hail from the UK as China's investments continue to grow in numbers in UK.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24494892

[Loptr]

China ratcheting up the rhetoric about the disgrace which become of the US.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513431/20131013/china-debt-ceiling-shutdown-xinhua-de-emericanised.htm

China's official news agency has called for the creation of a "de-Americanised world", saying the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a hypocritical nation with a dysfunctional government.

Heaping criticism and caustic ridicule on Washington, the Xinhua news agency called the US a civilian slayer, prisoner torturer and meddler in others' affairs, and said the 'Pax Americana' was a failure on all fronts.

Edited October 13, 2013 by Loptr

[NeverSure]

China ratcheting up the rhetoric about the disgrace which become of the US.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513431/20131013/china-debt-ceiling-shutdown-xinhua-de-emericanised.htm

China's official news agency has called for the creation of a "de-Americanised world", saying the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a hypocritical nation with a dysfunctional government.

Heaping criticism and caustic ridicule on Washington, the Xinhua news agency called the US a civilian slayer, prisoner torturer and meddler in others' affairs, and said the 'Pax Americana' was a failure on all fronts.

This simply proves that China doesn't understand a government of and by the people, or what a family squabble aired in public but which will get solved looks like. In a totalitarian government, everything is hidden including its true and gruesome finances.

China is a failure on all fronts. It is a copier and not an innovator - certainly not in modern world technology. That includes manufacturing techniques and products. We did not get the computer, the internet, the smartphone or anything else in this modern age from China. They got it from the West, and the West makes the big profits on what China manufactures for it while China picks up the scraps by providing cheap labor.

As costs rise in China, and the West outpaces China in automated manufacturing techniques, it won't be long before China isn't needed. With the rising cost of oil and other things making shipping more expensive - especially when the raw materials have to first be shipped to China, any cost benefits further erode. There is also the cost of Western management in China to assure quality because left to itself, China manufactures crap.

More and more Western countries are declining to outsource manufacturing to Asia except for products to be sold in Asia. In fact, some companies are repatriating manufacturing because the West is far more efficient, and can make up enough difference due to the high cost of shipping, management, and increasing wages in China.

China is yesterday's news. It's just that the first card in their house of cards hasn't fallen yet.

[Publicus]

Hey pal, who's excited here?

I'm simply responding to you in kind. You're the guy who presented a post a fifth of a page long of all kinds of data, data that went far beyond anything contained in my post to which you chose to respond.

You don't answer my questions, choosing instead to try to lecture me about PPP, emerging economies and the like. Why are you non-responsive? Rather than engaging in a discussion, you choose to pontificate, and to pontificate to those who have surpassed your doctrines; the non-convertible.

Unfortunately, I need to reiterate that, while PPP is a normal and common means of measurement, it is used cynically and deviously by the CCP in Beijing. The CCP uses the inherently higher PPP figure to disguise its steadily declining GDP data. You fail to recognize this, talking past it and me.

All the same, however, the population of the PRC can and does feel, see and know the declining GDP. So it's just more of the same baloney out of Beijing, which is constantly refusing to face reality.

Hopefully you can face, recognize and accept the fact of what I say.

If you are referring to yourself as the "non-convertible" due to the fact that you have surpassed my "doctrines" (which are?), it seems that you are not really interested in a discussion and actually what you are requiring me to do is "face, recognize and accept the fact of what (you) say".....

Interesting "discussion" strategy.

Anyhow my POV is quite simple. I have no love whatsoever for the authoritarian government of China but they are now an integral and key player in the global market, economy and increasingly the geopolitical sphere. To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties.

You are quite right to say that China is now facing a huge challenge as it moves from the initial phase of economic integration with the global market and poverty reduction, to what the government hopes is a more long-term sustainable trajectory.

This summary from the WB I would agree with 100%...

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country is without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!

As in so much else China is probably the regional or even global leader in these negative characteristics. Its recent reemergence onto the geopolitical stage is also potentially alarming.

China is now very much tied into the global economy which has been to all of us hugely advantageous. The flip side though is that a dramatic implosion and/ or violent regime change would be a global catastrophe and not one that could be quickly or simply shrugged off.

Sadly obvious alternatives are now less clear cut than in previous decades. The financial crises since 2008, the shameful smallmindedness currently on display within the Beltway, the myopic, timid ostriches of the EU and the shambles that stems from shoddy governance in India, much of Africa and Latin America, are hardly shining symbols of a better choice and actually reinforce the CCP's position.

The recent history of China has been far from perfect but its citizens have seen a marked improvement in their lives, if only in an economic sense. It would be to everyone's advantage that the political changes that should, could occur in China happen in a controlled, measured and thus most likely slow-time fashion.

We both seem to want the same outcome but differ in terms of time-scale and concern about the possible repercussions.

1) You fail to address the issues presented in the following link I provided in a post to you a couple of days ago:

Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy to Brink

Illicit capital outflows in the trillions, fake foreign investment and real estate speculation fueled by corruption and money laundering have driven the Chinese economy to the brink of collapse, experts say.

Since its economic reforms in the late 1970’s, China has relied heavily on foreign investment to pump up its GDP.

But today, massive capital that has been drained out of China through illicit outflows is often invested back into China, masquerading as foreign direct investment (FDI). (emphasis added)

http://www.theepocht...onomy-to-brink/

Which puts you behind on your reading and response to it because as of now you also have the following new newsclip to read:

China’s Economy on the Verge of Collapse

http://chineseeconomictrend.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinas-economy-on-verge-of-collapse.html

2) You said::

"This summary from the WB I would agree with 100%."..

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

First, the summary you attribute to the World Bank (WB) is in fact a link to the World Trade Organization, the WTO. It is the WTO Annual Report of 2011. Congratulations on agreeing with the entire annual report of the WTO, 2011. You can read the entire annual report of the WTO but you remain silent about one article I linked to you, above in Item #1, "Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy To Brink"?

3) You state in your quoted post above:

"Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country is without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!"

To which I state that no other Asian country, save North Korea, approaches the CCP-PRC in its extremely negative traits and characteristics and in its dangerous ideology and nature. The fact is the CCP-PRC is a Marxist-Maoist-Leninist dictatorship that, in the 21st century is a censoring, punishing, elitist single party state and fascist dictatorship that detests democracy and human rights, and believes literally it has the inherent birthright to lord over all of the world irrespective of the rule of consensual international law.

You, good sir, do stand corrected.

4) You state:

"China is now very much tied into the global economy which has been to all of us hugely advantageous. The flip side though is that a dramatic implosion and/ or violent regime change would be a global catastrophe and not one that could be quickly or simply shrugged off."

The CCP-PRC has, during the past 30 years of its radical economic development, benefited immensely from the stable and peaceful international order of rules and the organizations where rules of international intercourse are developed and applied, such as the WTO, the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea, among others, to include APEC, Asean.

Yet since 2010 the "Peaceful Development" of the CCP-PRC has been exposed as a fraud which is both dangerous and menacing to the established international order, a long respected international code which is predicated on commonly developed and accepted standards that are articulated in and by the rule of law, and by processes and procedures whose integrity is honored and respected.

Since 2010 and increasingly, Beijing asserts without any legal or moral justification territorial sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea. In so doing, Beijing would steal the rights in international law of countries' 200 mile territorial coastal waters and everything under their legally possessed territorial economic sea zones. Beijing's assertions would also endanger freedom of navigation of the high seas in one of the most commercially traversed seas of the world.

Beijing claims the sovereign nation of Taiwan as a province, having 800 short range missiles aimed at it from the mainland side across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing militarily menaces Japan over sovereign territories possessed by Japan. Beijing threatens India by claiming sovereign ownership of a large section of northern India. Beijing has militarily conquered and occupied Tibet and the territory of the Uigher peoples in their region of central Asia that Beijing has forcefully incorporated into itself as the westernmost PRC it calls Xin Jiang.

Beijing is deliberately campaigning militarily to upset and overturn the peaceful international order East Asia has enjoyed and by which it has prospered. The same is true of Southeast Asia, of South Asia, of Central Asia. The cold fact is that Beijing well knows that, before it can become a global power, it must first become a regional power. And, to become a regional power, the CCP-PRC must subdue Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Asean, Australia, New Zealand, India. This is dangerous and extreme stuff as none of these countries or groupings of countries are ever going to submit to domination by a 21st century fascist dictatorship that is hell bent on lording over all of the world.

5) You state:

"The recent history of China has been far from perfect but its citizens have seen a marked improvement in their lives, if only in an economic sense. It would be to everyone's advantage that the political changes that should, could occur in China happen in a controlled, measured and thus most likely slow-time fashion."

The new leadership of the CCP is seriously and severely hard core Marxist-Leninist-Maoist. CCP Chairman Xi Jinping has arrested dissidents, political liberals and democracy advocates at an unprecedented pace and rate since assuming power early this year. The CCP-PRC is the only country and government that has imprisoned a Nobel Peace Laureate (2010), Dr Liu Jiaobo because he advocates a transition to democracy that is peaceful, gradual, deliberate, effective. The CCP spends more on internal security forces than it spends on its armed forces. Political change in the CCP-PRC remains absolutely prohibited - the CCP despises Mikhail Gorbachev because of his Glasnost, i.e., political liberalism, which it regards as directly responsible for the downfall of the CCCP.

6) You state:

"We both seem to want the same outcome but differ in terms of time-scale and concern about the possible repercussions."

There's no "we" involved here. It is fact however that you and I differ and that you and I differ radically.

Edited October 13, 2013 by Publicus

[SinglePot]

China ratcheting up the rhetoric about the disgrace which become of the US.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513431/20131013/china-debt-ceiling-shutdown-xinhua-de-emericanised.htm

China's official news agency has called for the creation of a "de-Americanised world", saying the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a hypocritical nation with a dysfunctional government.

Heaping criticism and caustic ridicule on Washington, the Xinhua news agency called the US a civilian slayer, prisoner torturer and meddler in others' affairs, and said the 'Pax Americana' was a failure on all fronts.

Can the SInglePot news agency call for the creation of a de-Chineseised world because the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a dysfunctional nation with a toxic government?

Or is that too close to the truth for the power freaks from Beijing?

Edited October 14, 2013 by SinglePot

[SinglePot]

China ratcheting up the rhetoric about the disgrace which become of the US.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513431/20131013/china-debt-ceiling-shutdown-xinhua-de-emericanised.htm

China's official news agency has called for the creation of a "de-Americanised world", saying the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a hypocritical nation with a dysfunctional government.

Heaping criticism and caustic ridicule on Washington, the Xinhua news agency called the US a civilian slayer, prisoner torturer and meddler in others' affairs, and said the 'Pax Americana' was a failure on all fronts.

This simply proves that China doesn't understand a government of and by the people, or what a family squabble aired in public but which will get solved looks like. In a totalitarian government, everything is hidden including its true and gruesome finances.

China is a failure on all fronts. It is a copier and not an innovator - certainly not in modern world technology. That includes manufacturing techniques and products. We did not get the computer, the internet, the smartphone or anything else in this modern age from China. They got it from the West, and the West makes the big profits on what China manufactures for it while China picks up the scraps by providing cheap labor.

As costs rise in China, and the West outpaces China in automated manufacturing techniques, it won't be long before China isn't needed. With the rising cost of oil and other things making shipping more expensive - especially when the raw materials have to first be shipped to China, any cost benefits further erode. There is also the cost of Western management in China to assure quality because left to itself, China manufactures crap.

More and more Western countries are declining to outsource manufacturing to Asia except for products to be sold in Asia. In fact, some companies are repatriating manufacturing because the West is far more efficient, and can make up enough difference due to the high cost of shipping, management, and increasing wages in China.

China is yesterday's news. It's just that the first card in their house of cards hasn't fallen yet.

+1.

This post needs to be congratulated for its simple truth.

There is the bright side though. China has got 1.3 billion people who can do financial services, tourism and stuff.

Oh yeh.

[Publicus]

China ratcheting up the rhetoric about the disgrace which become of the US.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513431/20131013/china-debt-ceiling-shutdown-xinhua-de-emericanised.htm

China's official news agency has called for the creation of a "de-Americanised world", saying the destinies of people should not be left in the hands of a hypocritical nation with a dysfunctional government.

Heaping criticism and caustic ridicule on Washington, the Xinhua news agency called the US a civilian slayer, prisoner torturer and meddler in others' affairs, and said the 'Pax Americana' was a failure on all fronts.

This simply proves that China doesn't understand a government of and by the people, or what a family squabble aired in public but which will get solved looks like. In a totalitarian government, everything is hidden including its true and gruesome finances.

China is a failure on all fronts. It is a copier and not an innovator - certainly not in modern world technology. That includes manufacturing techniques and products. We did not get the computer, the internet, the smartphone or anything else in this modern age from China. They got it from the West, and the West makes the big profits on what China manufactures for it while China picks up the scraps by providing cheap labor.

As costs rise in China, and the West outpaces China in automated manufacturing techniques, it won't be long before China isn't needed. With the rising cost of oil and other things making shipping more expensive - especially when the raw materials have to first be shipped to China, any cost benefits further erode. There is also the cost of Western management in China to assure quality because left to itself, China manufactures crap.

More and more Western countries are declining to outsource manufacturing to Asia except for products to be sold in Asia. In fact, some companies are repatriating manufacturing because the West is far more efficient, and can make up enough difference due to the high cost of shipping, management, and increasing wages in China.

China is yesterday's news. It's just that the first card in their house of cards hasn't fallen yet.

I've seen some of the replicas presented in the superb photo collection at the link below. The sites are popular attractions to both foreign and PRChinese tourists in an industry, tourism, that is growing at a rapid pace in the CCP-PRC.

While there's a great deal to be said for precision work and the exactness of the entire project and its associated effort, it also has to be said that an inveterate and compulsive copier is, well, an inveterate and compulsive copier.

Here's an excellently done photo display of some remarkable places and sights:

26 Things That China Ripped Off

China accounted for 70% of all counterfeit goods between 2008 and 2010, according to a report released by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime earlier this year.

But China doesn't just have a thriving counterfeit industry with fake luxury goods.

The country has gone on to make life-size replicas of European towns.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/things-that-china-copied-from-the-world-2013-8?op=1#ixzz2hfkcIAXX

And then there's always the Chinese historical equivalent of Murphy's Law (Mao's Law?!). This is another fascinating, if a sometimes somewhat blood-curdling, photo collection:

10 Things That Could Go Horribly Wrong In China »

REUTERS/China Daily

Fellow workers, a firefighter and doctors work together to cut steel bars which were pierced through a worker's body, during an operation at a hospital in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, June 12, 2012.

The world has watched in awe for three decades as China emerged from obscurity to become the second largest economy in the world.

However, an economy that is so large and growing so quickly is inherently fragile.

The tiniest catalyst could trigger wars, bring down the government, or launch protectionist policies that could send shock waves through the global economy.

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-could-go-wrong-in-china-2013-8

Prominent among the things that can go horribly wrong is last month's 3.1% rate of CPI. As CPI increases, PRChinese workers demand wage increases, which employers cannot afford to pay. The expected result is social unrest, as its called - also called riots.

China CPI +3.1% On Year In September

RTT News Sunday 13th October, 2013

Consumer prices in China were up 3.1 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

That topped forecasts for an increase of 2.8 percent, and climbed from 2.6 percent in August

- See more at: http://www.beijingnews.net/index.php/sid/217710906/scat/55582c89cb296d4c#sthash.obzzTgM7.dpuf

Edited October 14, 2013 by Publicus

[Publicus]

The United States has its crazy aspects, such as the horrible mass shooting that seem to be a regular part of life, and presently there is the chaos in Washington that has brought US consumer confidence down to its lowest level since the financial and economic crash of 2008.

The CCP-PRC, which has ten times the population of the US, also has its crazy aspects, to include those that directly affect or derive from its command and corruption economy and financial system, which stands teetering and tottering on the brink of disaster.

Here neatly compiled in excellent photos are 29 of those that occur uniquely in the CCP-PRC:

29 Crazy Things That Only Happen In China

China's rapid economic growth rate has helped create problems that are very unique to China.

Its emphasis on speed over safety, poor environmental track record, use of substandard construction materials, harsh regulations, and the propaganda aimed at protecting the image of the Communist party, are all part of the problem.

Couples are getting divorced to avoid taxes, buildings and bridges have collapsed, and dead pigs are floating around in rivers.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/crazy-things-happening-in-china-2013-3?op=1#ixzz2hg79MeRj

Edited October 14, 2013 by Publicus

[folium]

Hey pal, who's excited here?

I'm simply responding to you in kind. You're the guy who presented a post a fifth of a page long of all kinds of data, data that went far beyond anything contained in my post to which you chose to respond.

You don't answer my questions, choosing instead to try to lecture me about PPP, emerging economies and the like. Why are you non-responsive? Rather than engaging in a discussion, you choose to pontificate, and to pontificate to those who have surpassed your doctrines; the non-convertible.

Unfortunately, I need to reiterate that, while PPP is a normal and common means of measurement, it is used cynically and deviously by the CCP in Beijing. The CCP uses the inherently higher PPP figure to disguise its steadily declining GDP data. You fail to recognize this, talking past it and me.

All the same, however, the population of the PRC can and does feel, see and know the declining GDP. So it's just more of the same baloney out of Beijing, which is constantly refusing to face reality.

Hopefully you can face, recognize and accept the fact of what I say.

If you are referring to yourself as the "non-convertible" due to the fact that you have surpassed my "doctrines" (which are?), it seems that you are not really interested in a discussion and actually what you are requiring me to do is "face, recognize and accept the fact of what (you) say".....

Interesting "discussion" strategy.

Anyhow my POV is quite simple. I have no love whatsoever for the authoritarian government of China but they are now an integral and key player in the global market, economy and increasingly the geopolitical sphere. To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties.

You are quite right to say that China is now facing a huge challenge as it moves from the initial phase of economic integration with the global market and poverty reduction, to what the government hopes is a more long-term sustainable trajectory.

This summary from the WB I would agree with 100%...

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country is without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!

As in so much else China is probably the regional or even global leader in these negative characteristics. Its recent reemergence onto the geopolitical stage is also potentially alarming.

China is now very much tied into the global economy which has been to all of us hugely advantageous. The flip side though is that a dramatic implosion and/ or violent regime change would be a global catastrophe and not one that could be quickly or simply shrugged off.

Sadly obvious alternatives are now less clear cut than in previous decades. The financial crises since 2008, the shameful smallmindedness currently on display within the Beltway, the myopic, timid ostriches of the EU and the shambles that stems from shoddy governance in India, much of Africa and Latin America, are hardly shining symbols of a better choice and actually reinforce the CCP's position.

The recent history of China has been far from perfect but its citizens have seen a marked improvement in their lives, if only in an economic sense. It would be to everyone's advantage that the political changes that should, could occur in China happen in a controlled, measured and thus most likely slow-time fashion.

We both seem to want the same outcome but differ in terms of time-scale and concern about the possible repercussions.

1) You fail to address the issues presented in the following link I provided in a post to you a couple of days ago:

Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy to Brink

Illicit capital outflows in the trillions, fake foreign investment and real estate speculation fueled by corruption and money laundering have driven the Chinese economy to the brink of collapse, experts say.

Since its economic reforms in the late 1970’s, China has relied heavily on foreign investment to pump up its GDP.

But today, massive capital that has been drained out of China through illicit outflows is often invested back into China, masquerading as foreign direct investment (FDI). (emphasis added)

http://www.theepocht...onomy-to-brink/

Which puts you behind on your reading and response to it because as of now you also have the following new newsclip to read:

China’s Economy on the Verge of Collapse

http://chineseeconomictrend.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinas-economy-on-verge-of-collapse.html

2) You said::

"This summary from the WB I would agree with 100%."..

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

First, the summary you attribute to the World Bank (WB) is in fact a link to the World Trade Organization, the WTO. It is the WTO Annual Report of 2011. Congratulations on agreeing with the entire annual report of the WTO, 2011. You can read the entire annual report of the WTO but you remain silent about one article I linked to you, above in Item #1, "Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy To Brink"?

3) You state in your quoted post above:

"Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country is without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!"

To which I state that no other Asian country, save North Korea, approaches the CCP-PRC in its extremely negative traits and characteristics and in its dangerous ideology and nature. The fact is the CCP-PRC is a Marxist-Maoist-Leninist dictatorship that, in the 21st century is a censoring, punishing, elitist single party state and fascist dictatorship that detests democracy and human rights, and believes literally it has the inherent birthright to lord over all of the world irrespective of the rule of consensual international law.

You, good sir, do stand corrected.

4) You state:

"China is now very much tied into the global economy which has been to all of us hugely advantageous. The flip side though is that a dramatic implosion and/ or violent regime change would be a global catastrophe and not one that could be quickly or simply shrugged off."

The CCP-PRC has, during the past 30 years of its radical economic development, benefited immensely from the stable and peaceful international order of rules and the organizations where rules of international intercourse are developed and applied, such as the WTO, the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea, among others, to include APEC, Asean.

Yet since 2010 the "Peaceful Development" of the CCP-PRC has been exposed as a fraud which is both dangerous and menacing to the established international order, a long respected international code which is predicated on commonly developed and accepted standards that are articulated in and by the rule of law, and by processes and procedures whose integrity is honored and respected.

Since 2010 and increasingly, Beijing asserts without any legal or moral justification territorial sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea. In so doing, Beijing would steal the rights in international law of countries' 200 mile territorial coastal waters and everything under their legally possessed territorial economic sea zones. Beijing's assertions would also endanger freedom of navigation of the high seas in one of the most commercially traversed seas of the world.

Beijing claims the sovereign nation of Taiwan as a province, having 800 short range missiles aimed at it from the mainland side across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing militarily menaces Japan over sovereign territories possessed by Japan. Beijing threatens India by claiming sovereign ownership of a large section of northern India. Beijing has militarily conquered and occupied Tibet and the territory of the Uigher peoples in their region of central Asia that Beijing has forcefully incorporated into itself as the westernmost PRC it calls Xin Jiang.

Beijing is deliberately campaigning militarily to upset and overturn the peaceful international order East Asia has enjoyed and by which it has prospered. The same is true of Southeast Asia, of South Asia, of Central Asia. The cold fact is that Beijing well knows that, before it can become a global power, it must first become a regional power. And, to become a regional power, the CCP-PRC must subdue Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Asean, Australia, New Zealand, India. This is dangerous and extreme stuff as none of these countries or groupings of countries are ever going to submit to domination by a 21st century fascist dictatorship that is hell bent on lording over all of the world.

5) You state:

"The recent history of China has been far from perfect but its citizens have seen a marked improvement in their lives, if only in an economic sense. It would be to everyone's advantage that the political changes that should, could occur in China happen in a controlled, measured and thus most likely slow-time fashion."

The new leadership of the CCP is seriously and severely hard core Marxist-Leninist-Maoist. CCP Chairman Xi Jinping has arrested dissidents, political liberals and democracy advocates at an unprecedented pace and rate since assuming power early this year. The CCP-PRC is the only country and government that has imprisoned a Nobel Peace Laureate (2010), Dr Liu Jiaobo because he advocates a transition to democracy that is peaceful, gradual, deliberate, effective. The CCP spends more on internal security forces than it spends on its armed forces. Political change in the CCP-PRC remains absolutely prohibited - the CCP despises Mikhail Gorbachev because of his Glasnost, i.e., political liberalism, which it regards as directly responsible for the downfall of the CCCP.

6) You state:

"We both seem to want the same outcome but differ in terms of time-scale and concern about the possible repercussions."

There's no "we" involved here. It is fact however that you and I differ and that you and I differ radically.

Not sure why you seem to prefer the hectoring monologue approach rather than an exchange of opinions and views, anyone would think that only you have all the answers...!

The story about counterfeit FDI is all fine and dandy, a little spoilt by being from Epoch Times with its Falun Gong agenda. Do you have similar from more mainstream sources, or do you also share Steely Dan's aversion to MSM?

Here's the missing WB summary for your edification...

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview

Your well and truly "stand corrected" pleasantries are also a little misplaced and fail to take into account what I actually wrote:

"Correct me if I am wrong but there is no Asian country without its fair share of elements of authoritarianism, cronyism, shaky regard for human rights, nepotism, corruption or an absence of the impartial rule of law, and some countries exhibit all these traits!

As in so much else China is probably the regional or even global leader in these negative characteristics. Its recent reemergence onto the geopolitical stage is also potentially alarming."

To simplify, all Asian countries exhibit a host of material, negative traits and in most of these traits China leads the pack. We seem to agree on this point, if that's permitted of course.

Similarly I am well aware of the geopolitical games currently being waged by the PRC in the SCS and globally. They are potentially alarming if and when they get their force projection capability really up and running.

You seem to overlook the comment that China's entry in to the global market has proved to be very advantageous for much of the world at least in economic terms. Similarly if there was to be an implosion of the CCP and civil conflict in China this would have a very detrimental impact on all of us, though perhaps a global economic collapse is a small price to pay to facilitate a touch of regime change in China...?

Thanks for the reminder that China's record on human rights and civil liberties is less than stellar, but that again is the point I was trying to make. The unwritten deal has been economic improvement for the vast majority but at the expense of individual liberties. Similar setup to South Korea during the military dictatorship years 1961-91.

Sorry that there is no place for any mutual agreement, but not quite clear what your preferred outcomes for China are. Personally I would like to see a change in the political status quo in China along the lines of that achieved in S.Korea, but precipitous change will be a global economic negative on a vast scale and if civil conflict breaks out I would not want to wish a rerun of the 1946-50 Civil War on the people of China.

PS Without wishing to open another can of the proverbial, Taiwan's status is more than a little controversial but strictly speaking it is not a sovereign nation. But that of course depends on which version of the One China Policy you buy into.

[SinglePot]

@folium

'We drown, you go down with us' is another of the implications of your long spiel containing praise and criticisms for the CCP-PRC, that I could take issue with.

I remind you of my previous concern regarding accuracy.

"To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties."

They've creamed it while the going has been good and a lot of people have got wealthy and many have got extremely rich.

To avoid any ambiguity of communication with a westerner it is advisable to talk out the front of your mouth.

[folium]

@folium

'We drown, you go down with us' is another of the implications of your long spiel containing praise and criticisms for the CCP-PRC, that I could take issue with.

I remind you of my previous concern regarding accuracy.

"To date the CCP have operated the simple deal of improved economic conditions for the average person at the cost of individual liberties."

They've creamed it while the going has been good and a lot of people have got wealthy and many have got extremely rich.

To avoid any ambiguity of communication with a westerner it is advisable to talk out the front of your mouth.

Please feel free to take issue, that what forums should be all about. I don't pretend I know all the answers and if you know better and have the evidence to back it up we all learn.

The point I was trying to make is fairly simple and I don't believe that controversial, namely that by many economic and social measurements life for the average person in China has improved markedly in the last 20 years and the move away form the doctrinaire policies of Mao et al.

eg Life expectancy 1960 32: 2011 75

Child mortality 1960 309/1000 births: 2011 15/1000

84% of China's population lived in extreme poverty (<$1.25/day) in 1981: in 2011 13%

and so on.

Before such positive data triggers any "wailing and gnashing of teeth", let me reiterate the point that such advances have been achieved in a society largely devoid of civil liberties, up to and including reproductive rights via the shocking and largely unnecessary OCP.

[SinglePot]

Looking at your statistics folium from 1960 to 1981 we really are talking about a disastrous nation in the modern world aren't we?

I hadn't realised quite how bad it was. Japan at the same time for example was flourishing.

No wonder that Mrs Jinping is impressed with Japanese cities.

Couldn't fail not to be by comparison.

CCP has a legacy of disaster.

Recent performance and the future? I fail to be impressed.

[folium]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Prc1952-2005gdp.gif

The change in crude stats such as nominal GDP since the late 1970's is pretty impressive.

Edited October 14, 2013 by folium

[SinglePot]

GDP nominal Per Capita 2012. IMF data. US dollar.

85 Iraq 6,305

86 Turkmenistan 6,263

87 China 6,071

Yep. China with 86 countries in the world above them.

[folium]

GDP nominal Per Capita 2012. IMF data. US dollar.

85 Iraq 6,305

86 Turkmenistan 6,263

87 China 6,071

Yep. China with 86 countries in the world above them.

And from the same source Thailand is ranked 94th

India is ranked 138th on $1501

That's out of 185 nations.

In 1980 the straight GDP ( none of that dodgy PPP business !!) for China was $307 per capita.

https://knoema.com/pjeqzh/gdp-per-capita-by-country-1980-2012#China

[SinglePot]

GDP nominal Per Capita 2012. IMF data. US dollar.

85 Iraq 6,305

86 Turkmenistan 6,263

87 China 6,071

Yep. China with 86 countries in the world above them.

And from the same source Thailand is ranked 94th

India is ranked 138th on $1501

That's out of 185 nations.

In 1980 the straight GDP ( none of that dodgy PPP business !!) for China was $307 per capita.

https://knoema.com/pjeqzh/gdp-per-capita-by-country-1980-2012#China

Nobody is claiming that Thailand is going to be the next world superpower.

BTW. My figures are GDP just like yours.

$307 in 1980 was abysmal.

[SinglePot]

Not sure you'll grasp this folium because it's not statistics or money, but let's have a go:

Maybe it comes down to whether you love China or America more.

[folium]

Not sure you'll grasp this folium because it's not statistics or money, but let's have a go:

Maybe it comes down to whether you love China or America more.

Strewth you make me sound like an economist, a proponent of the "dismal science".

Actually it has nothing to do with loving the US or China more.

My view is very simple. China's economic rise has not been all bad for the "West" as it is had a very beneficial impact on our inflation rates, has added a huge chunk to the world available market, and has allowed us to export much of our polluting activities to the Orient. Similarly hundreds of millions of Chinese people have been lifted out of abject poverty.

Recognizing that the PRC is not 100% evil however does not imply "love" for the country or its regime.

The problem is that if there is a swift, uncontrolled implosion in the CCP the rest of the world will pay a very high price, as will the population of China. Unplanned, un thought out, rapid attempts at regime change can have very nasty unforeseen circumstances, however much the initial concept of removing the bad guys at the top may have been a good idea at the outset. See Iraq, Syria and Diem in S.Vietnam as classic examples of how "good" ideas go bad.

Obviously the US is far preferable to the PRC for all the obvious reasons but sadly China is the classic pachyderm in the room and is now too important (at the very least economically!) to be overlooked and its sudden demise would create one heck of a mess for the rest of us to clean up and deal with.

[Scott]

Troll post and replies have been deleted.

[antfish]

Obviously the US is far preferable to the PRC for all the obvious reasons but sadly China is the classic pachyderm in the room and is now too important (at the very least economically!) to be overlooked and its sudden demise would create one heck of a mess for the rest of us to clean up and deal with.

I don't see these obvious reasons why the US should be far more preferable, but true it is a fact that China is there and that cannot talked away with some anti-Chinese propaganda and sinophobe posts.

[SinglePot]

Not sure you'll grasp this folium because it's not statistics or money, but let's have a go:

Maybe it comes down to whether you love China or America more.

Strewth you make me sound like an economist, a proponent of the "dismal science".

Actually it has nothing to do with loving the US or China more.

My view is very simple. China's economic rise has not been all bad for the "West" as it is had a very beneficial impact on our inflation rates, has added a huge chunk to the world available market, and has allowed us to export much of our polluting activities to the Orient. Similarly hundreds of millions of Chinese people have been lifted out of abject poverty.

Recognizing that the PRC is not 100% evil however does not imply "love" for the country or its regime.

The problem is that if there is a swift, uncontrolled implosion in the CCP the rest of the world will pay a very high price, as will the population of China. Unplanned, un thought out, rapid attempts at regime change can have very nasty unforeseen circumstances, however much the initial concept of removing the bad guys at the top may have been a good idea at the outset. See Iraq, Syria and Diem in S.Vietnam as classic examples of how "good" ideas go bad.

Obviously the US is far preferable to the PRC for all the obvious reasons but sadly China is the classic pachyderm in the room and is now too important (at the very least economically!) to be overlooked and its sudden demise would create one heck of a mess for the rest of us to clean up and deal with.

I would be quite happy to see the Chinese economy go kaput.

The CCP might learn some humility.

If it did go kaput the free world would adapt.

[FDog]

Not sure you'll grasp this folium because it's not statistics or money, but let's have a go:

Maybe it comes down to whether you love China or America more.

Strewth you make me sound like an economist, a proponent of the "dismal science".

Actually it has nothing to do with loving the US or China more.

My view is very simple. China's economic rise has not been all bad for the "West" as it is had a very beneficial impact on our inflation rates, has added a huge chunk to the world available market, and has allowed us to export much of our polluting activities to the Orient. Similarly hundreds of millions of Chinese people have been lifted out of abject poverty.

Recognizing that the PRC is not 100% evil however does not imply "love" for the country or its regime.

The problem is that if there is a swift, uncontrolled implosion in the CCP the rest of the world will pay a very high price, as will the population of China. Unplanned, un thought out, rapid attempts at regime change can have very nasty unforeseen circumstances, however much the initial concept of removing the bad guys at the top may have been a good idea at the outset. See Iraq, Syria and Diem in S.Vietnam as classic examples of how "good" ideas go bad.

Obviously the US is far preferable to the PRC for all the obvious reasons but sadly China is the classic pachyderm in the room and is now too important (at the very least economically!) to be overlooked and its sudden demise would create one heck of a mess for the rest of us to clean up and deal with.

I would be quite happy to see the Chinese economy go kaput.

The CCP might learn some humility.

If it did go kaput the free world would adapt.

Wow, showing your true colours, you would be happy the economy would go kaput, causing grief to millions and millions of people, just so the CCP might learn some humility. That wouldn't be all, many other countries would suffer very badly if that happened, Australia would go into recession very quickly and many would suffer. But that's ok, as long as you would be happy someone learnt a lesson.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. Quite pathetic really.