Plodprasop: Overall flooding situation is not worrisome

[ResX]

The existing dams do not hold 80% of the rainfall for the whole of Thailand as one TV poster has stated. In 2011, much of the rain fell in the Yom River basin, most of the existing dams did not receive excessive storm flows. A major dam was recommend to be built to regulate the flow of Yom River under the King's Master Plan, put forward by J.I.C.A., 30 years ago. Because of aggressive action by locals and so called environmentalists, there is still no dam to control major flows coming from the Yom river catchment area. Until this dam is completed they will not control the excessive flows during prolonged monsoon conditions. When Plodprasop says that the overall flood situation is not worrisome, he means the following:

1. His constituency is unaffected. 2. His home is not affected. 3. His brother has opened a boat factory

Hi,

Just go to Bangkok pundit that is where i got my information from there they state how much water these dams hold. I am not trying to make Plop look good here. I am quite anti him and the PTP but as someone who was affected by the last flood bad its hard to get any accurate news.

I liked to contribute so those that could get affected could get some good news. i know that now I am a bit more relaxed.. its not good being on edge based on incomplete news.

I am a consultant in Water and Waste Management. I have the advantage I have been involved in various studies over the last 30 years and have given presentations to the Government officials, and various organisations including American Chamber of Commerce. We had to make a study for many foreign companies, who at the time of the floods needed accurate information on which to base their decision to move their factories to another Country or to stay in Thailand. My study tracks the flooding back to the 17th Century when the Capital was moved from Ayutthaya to Thonburi because of flooding. It was then moved across the river to its present position due to flooding, and it is still flooding. I also was involved in writing the Bangkok Solid Waste Master Plan so I know that the statistics given by politicians in Thailand are mostly inaccurate. The Government web site stops reporting daily figures for air pollution for instance when the levels exceed International Standards. During the last floods the government refused to give permission from the U.S. to carry out accurate meteorological studies using aircraft to have been based in Sattahip.

I wonder how they operate the 150MW pump storage turbine in the North. The capacity of that turbine can alter flood characteristic at its downstream if it is not correctly operated.

[slapout]

I would question any numbers, regarding capacity, bandied about in rerard to the resivors/lakes throughtout Thailand. They have failed to keep the rivers and canels dredged on a regular basis, let alone the lakes and water catchment areas.

With the destruction of forests, (which results in more erosion, thus silt deposits in lower areas) add the building/concrete construction in old drainage areas, diversion of water from industrial areas/cities, we can expect more prolonged flooding during the normal rainfall years. Even normal rainfall flooding seems to be a surprise to the leaders and the people in the trenches who might have some real experience/knowledge, would not dare try to correct the situation in this face protective society.

[wilcopops]

"Under control" "Not worrisome" - It seems K. Plodprasop likes to dress up as legendary king's perhaps he might consider a King Canute outfit?

Edited October 5, 2013 by wilcopops

[wilcopops]

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

[ResX]

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

[wilcopops]

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

Nonsense - any dam has a limit and a purpose if that limit is reached - then water has to be released. Most of the flooding is caused because the estimates for rainfall extremes are being exceeded - they frequently don't take into account the deforestation that occurs before during and after construction. Government figures are potentially hugely unreliable as those compiling them all have axes to grind. n the long term most dams fail in their declared purpose due to poor planning and calculations that are political rather than scientific and the margins of error ae proved increasingly to be insufficient.​

it is unfortunate that many fail to look beyond "official" government figures for these structures and fail to take in the broader ramifications they may have on the environment.

[robblok]

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

Nonsense - any dam has a limit and a purpose if that limit is reached - then water has to be released. Most of the flooding is caused because the estimates for rainfall extremes are being exceeded - they frequently don't take into account the deforestation that occurs before during and after construction. Government figures are potentially hugely unreliable as those compiling them all have axes to grind. n the long term most dams fail in their declared purpose due to poor planning and calculations that are political rather than scientific and the margins of error ae proved increasingly to be insufficient.​

it is unfortunate that many fail to look beyond "official" government figures for these structures and fail to take in the broader ramifications they may have on the environment.

Actually he is right and you are not.. please look at where those dams are located and the capacity. Just educate yourself like me I had to last time i was flooded. It was mismanagement of the dams that made a normal flood worse. These dams can make and break a flood if used right. Right now the two large dams don't have to discharge the water there is still loads of room left. But they are discharging and the rate these dams can discharge is real great.

Just read up about it then you can come back with good data. Bangkok pundit had a nice article and there are many others.

[ResX]

Dams seldom reduce flooding over long periods as at some point they have to release water - this is far more dramatic than the natural flow of water.

It depends what the dams are good at and how they make good use of them. Bhumibol dam for example can store greater than one year average rainfall if its storage the draw down plan is well managed. What chance that you can think of to get the total accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 30 days that is equal to accumulation of rainfall & runoff in 365 days? Note that it is possible scenario..but to be more specific what is the probability? I would say smaller than than 1 in 200 years. So Bhumibol dam is in better position to keep most of its inflow during Oct -Nov every year with probability that it is going to fail as small as 1/200.

Bhumibol dam is good to stop surging of flow as high as 3billion cubic meter that might fall in 7 days, at the right time. Such flow if not mitigate will contribute close to 5000m3/s additional discharge to the Chao Pharaya. Peak discharge of the Chao Pharaya in 2011 was just about 4900m3/s...

Over the last few weeks the dams accumulated close to 2 billion cubic meter. I really hope the dam took most of it since it is in position to take at least 4 billion cubic meter more

Nonsense - any dam has a limit and a purpose if that limit is reached - then water has to be released. Most of the flooding is caused because the estimates for rainfall extremes are being exceeded - they frequently don't take into account the deforestation that occurs before during and after construction. Government figures are potentially hugely unreliable as those compiling them all have axes to grind. n the long term most dams fail in their declared purpose due to poor planning and calculations that are political rather than scientific and the margins of error ae proved increasingly to be insufficient.​

it is unfortunate that many fail to look beyond "official" government figures for these structures and fail to take in the broader ramifications they may have on the environment.

True. All dams have their storage limits. And so do flood sizes. Moreover with dams flood flow can be averaged up to ensure peak discharge can be suppressed.