what is the future of the construction industry in CM

[ericpasansai]

I had a chat with an architect and builder yesterday and they said that their Burmese workers will all head back to Burma in a couple of years. The Burmese government is strongly suggesting that they return and work to rebuilding the infrastructure of Burma.

What will happen to the housing construction business in Thailand. Will the small construction industry grind to a halt with no skilled labor? Will the price of existing inventory sky rocket ?

Is that why there is so much building going on now before the labor pool dries up?

[elektrified]

The bubble will have burst by then and it won't really matter as the recovery will take time - probably several years. After the recovery, they will return.

There will be so many properties available that will never sell, unfinished homes, condos, etc. It will take years to sort out the mess.

[jaideeguy]

Maybe the Thais will have to do their own dirty work for a change??

[Greenside]

I've also heard that theory and, while it applies particularly to construction workers who have acquired and developed their skills in Thailand, it seems to me that there is likely to be a broader effect as Burma opens its doors to the world and jobs at home become more plentiful. Domestic staff and those who do the basic wage (or below) in hotels will be out of here in a flash if it means they can work near their families, and will unskilled Thais step in to take the jobs that they felt weren't worth doing which created the opportunities for the migrant workers in the first place? It's more than likely lower end wages will have to increase which will affect the hospitality industry at the very least. I heard that many of the stalls at the Night Market are staffed by Burmese too...

It may still be a way off, but second hand houses must benefit from the continually rising costs. Bigger plots on developments closer to the city must start to overcome the local preference for new build at some point.

Edited October 9, 2013 by Greenside

[beau thai]

I've also heard that theory and, while it applies particularly to construction workers who have acquired and developed their skills in Thailand, it seems to me that there is likely to be a broader effect as Burma opens its doors to the world and jobs at home become more plentiful. Domestic staff and those who do the basic wage (or below) in hotels will be out of here in a flash if it means they can work near their families, and will unskilled Thais step in to take the jobs that they felt weren't worth doing which created the opportunities for the migrant workers in the first place? It's more than likely lower end wages will have to increase which will affect the hospitality industry at the very least. I heard that many of the stalls at the Night Market are staffed by Burmese too...

It may still be a way off, but second hand houses must benefit from the continually rising costs. Bigger plots on developments closer to the city must start to overcome the local preference for new build at some point.

Agree with your last para too. Traffic will get even worse and folks wont want to be outside town in a costly newbuild with dubious build quality.

As with most big cities there will always be demand for homes close to the city centre- even if a downturn does appear, which seems unlikely to me in Ching Mai just yet.,

[elektrified]

It's the same thing that happened in Europe. Skilled craftsmen from Poland (in particular), as well as other European countries flocked to the U.K. and Spain during their real estate boom. Poles began to accumulate wealth from all the top-end carpentry and other custom work they were doing. Then, the U.K. and Spanish economies collapsed and at the same time the Polish economy began to boom. Skilled craftsmen working in the U.K. and Spain suddenly became in demand back in Poland. They returned to Poland with considerable wealth and began to buy and develop properties back in their home country. In turn, those jobs that the Brits and Spaniards did not care to do when their economy was good, happily took back the jobs.

Economies as they go up and down, and building booms are funny things.

Edited October 9, 2013 by elektrified

[beau thai]

It's the same thing that happened in Europe. Skilled craftsmen from Poland (in particular), as well as other European countries flocked to the U.K. and Spain during their real estate boom. Poles began to accumulate wealth from all the top-end carpentry and other custom work they were doing. Then, the U.K. and Spanish economies collapsed and at the same time the Polish economy began to boom. Skilled craftsmen working in the U.K. and Spain suddenly became in demand back in Poland. They returned to Poland with considerable wealth and began to buy and develop properties back in their home country. In turn, those jobs that the Brits and Spaniards did not care to do when their economy was good, happily took back the jobs.

Economies as they go up and down, and building booms are funny things.

Actually, Spain took in many South Americans with whom they have a strong affinity and common language in most cases-and over the last 2 years have paid them to go back to SA! There is still virtually no construction work in Spain.

And it is still very difficult for skilled trades people to get work in the uk unless they are willing to work for the same pittance that immigrants accept-and there will be a load more going to the UK from Romania when they join EU on 1 JAN 2014 - politicians estimate 10k, I estimate well over 100k. We shall see.

As Burmese return, I would like to think that Thai workers will then get at least the minimum wage which many dont of course now, but I guess Government will keep business happy by bringing in more from Lao and Cambodia to replace the Burmese-and hold down labour rates.

[elektrified]

It's the same thing that happened in Europe. Skilled craftsmen from Poland (in particular), as well as other European countries flocked to the U.K. and Spain during their real estate boom. Poles began to accumulate wealth from all the top-end carpentry and other custom work they were doing. Then, the U.K. and Spanish economies collapsed and at the same time the Polish economy began to boom. Skilled craftsmen working in the U.K. and Spain suddenly became in demand back in Poland. They returned to Poland with considerable wealth and began to buy and develop properties back in their home country. In turn, those jobs that the Brits and Spaniards did not care to do when their economy was good, happily took back the jobs.

Economies as they go up and down, and building booms are funny things.

Actually, Spain took in many South Americans with whom they have a strong affinity and common language in most cases-and over the last 2 years have paid them to go back to SA! There is still virtually no construction work in Spain.

And it is still very difficult for skilled trades people to get work in the uk unless they are willing to work for the same pittance that immigrants accept-and there will be a load more going to the UK from Romania when they join EU on 1 JAN 2014 - politicians estimate 10k, I estimate well over 100k. We shall see.

As Burmese return, I would like to think that Thai workers will then get at least the minimum wage which many dont of course now, but I guess Government will keep business happy by bringing in more from Lao and Cambodia to replace the Burmese-and hold down labour rates.

Right, the Colombians have been in Spain for m any years now. Almost every maid in Spanish hotels are Colombians or from other SA countries. Romania has been a member of the EU since 2007. They are already everywhere in Europe.

[isanbirder]

Back to Chiangmai.... the construction industry will do fine, apart from the occasional temporary slowdown. Two reasons.... building standards are so low that most buildings need replacing after 20-30 years, and Thais on the whole don't like secondhand houses, partly for the first reason, and partly because they're unwilling to buy a house where someone has died.

[khwaibah]

Back to Chiangmai.... the construction industry will do fine, apart from the occasional temporary slowdown. Two reasons.... building standards are so low that most buildings need replacing after 20-30 years, and Thais on the whole don't like secondhand houses, partly for the first reason, and partly because they're unwilling to buy a house where someone has died.

Just do some research on the second hand housing market in Chiang Mai and you'll see that the market is already swamped.

[Sparkles]

Try booking a decent hotel in Burma,not an easy task,huge shortage of rooms.With the opening up of the country there is going to be massive amount of building activity. hotels,shopping centres etc.and they will need skilled construction workers. Some Burmese folk who do work for us, and are now skilled, are considering returning with the benefit of being close to their families again

[hellodolly]

Try booking a decent hotel in Burma,not an easy task,huge shortage of rooms.With the opening up of the country there is going to be massive amount of building activity. hotels,shopping centres etc.and they will need skilled construction workers. Some Burmese folk who do work for us, and are now skilled, are considering returning with the benefit of being close to their families again

Well said.

It is also my understanding that the majority of the skilled workers are Burmese. Bringing in workers from Laos or Cambodia is not going to assure you of a skilled worker. Is Cambodia not in a bit of a building boom now?

Thailand will be in a bind if the bubble does not burst before the Burmese open up full tilt to build the necessities for tourists.