Thai govt faces uphill battle to win back popularity

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Govt faces uphill battle to win back popularity
Samudcha Hoonsara
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The political atmosphere now is similar to that in early 2006, when there were huge street protests against then-PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Seven years ago there was widespread public outrage after his family sold shares in Shin Corp worth Bt70 billion to Singapore's Temasak Holding, without paying tax.

At the time, protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul held a rally every Friday, during which he made allegations against the government (some of which were later found to be untrue). The weekly events culminated in public anger against Thaksin, and led to a military coup on September 19, 2006 that ousted his government. Today, the government of Thaksin's sister Yingluck appears to be in a similar position to her brother before he lost power.

The controversial amnesty bill is the main reason that her administration is facing its worst crisis to date. It is widely regarded that the proposed law is aimed at helping Thaksin, who has lived in self-imposed exile overseas - after fleeing abroad in 2008 just before a two-year prison sentence was handed down for abuse of power.

Prayuth Siripanit, a politician from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, proposed a revision to the original amnesty bill so it would cover political cases resulting from the 2006 coup. He said he had met Thaksin overseas and that the former PM told him he wanted to return home.

The revised bill was rushed through the House of Representatives, spurring widespread opposition and causing the Senate to unanimously reject it. The government's four coalition parties have now promised in writing that they will not seek to reaffirm the law.

The revised bill, which would give blanket amnesty to all political cases since 2004, also upset many red-shirt supporters of Pheu Thai, although key leaders of the red-shirt movement remain loyal to the ruling party. A number of red-shirt gatherings have been held in support of the government, and a big rally in Bangkok is planned next week. However, a big concern for the government is the participation of the middle class in the anti-amnesty movement. Over the past two decades of Thai politics, the urban middle class has played an important role in street protests, which led to the former government's ouster.

Even some media organisations that have often backed this government have warned it against defying public opposition to the bill.

However, despite the bills being annulled, it is still not plain sailing for the government, as it now faces a number of legal cases. These include a case over the government-backed constitutional amendment to change Senate election procedures that was filed against its parliamentarian supporters. The Constitutional Court is due to make a ruling on the case next Wednesday.

All these political developments come amid speculation over a possible House dissolution soon from certain factions in the ruling party.

Many opponents of the amnesty bill seem to be satisfied with the government's promise not to pursue the law again. However, other groups want to transform the anti-amnesty protests into a campaign to oust the government, arguing that it has lost the public's trust and therefore has no legitimacy to stay on in power.

Meanwhile, a range of troubled government policies continue to have problems and the decline in its popularity is getting serious. Anti-government protest groups - the main one led by the opposition Democrat Party - are using these in a bid to further weaken the government's credibility. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, who resigned as a Democrat MP earlier this week along with eight other party MPs, told protesters at the Democracy Monument that "our fight will be over" at the end of this month.

It will be interesting to see how this latest confrontation will unfold. This seems to be a game of patience. A wrong move could cost either side dearly.


-- The Nation 2013-11-15

[bigbamboo]

It does seem like we've been here before......

[Patje]

Seems like no one is learning lessons from history, although every one knows that history repeats itself .....

[soi41]

Thai govt faces uphill battle to win back popularity

For starters get rid of the Shinawatra clan!!

[Thai at Heart]

It's done now. They won't come back from this.

Quit, coup or election. That's the options

[mrtoad]

It's done now. They won't come back from this.

Quit, coup or election. That's the options

The Caddy in Dubai will not allow them to quit. Too much at stake now, 2 Trllion Baht, Amnesty bill which they can sign off on in 175 days.

[hellodolly]

The revised bill was rushed through the House of Representatives, spurring widespread opposition and causing the Senate to unanimously reject it. The government's four coalition parties have now promised in writing that they will not seek to reaffirm the law.

They should have said they will not seek in any way manner or sneaky way to white wash Thaksin Shinawatra and they will not continue to try to oppress the opposition with trumped up charges so that they will be voiceless. That they will allow there members to vote their conscience.

As is we have an elected dictator who is seeking to get into a position where he can do away with real elections. Just sham elections as has been done in several African countries.

[Halion]

It does seem like we've been here before......

So many times and with monotonous regularity.

[Thai at Heart]

It's done now. They won't come back from this.

Quit, coup or election. That's the options

The Caddy in Dubai will not allow them to quit. Too much at stake now, 2 Trllion Baht, Amnesty bill which they can sign off on in 175 days.

There is no way that the govt will get 175 days. They will get broken before then. Just wait.

Sondhi is brushing off his speeches right now. He will get the crowds out.

[jdinasia]

This does not feel like 2006 to me... nor 2008 .. nor 2009 ... nor 2010. This feels somewhat different.

The opposition party needs to really be getting information out there. Particularly how much this failed rice pledging scheme has cost the country and how their plan would have actually put more money in the farmers' pockets instead of the brokers. They need to be discussing budgets for upcountry schools and education. Most importantly they need to be showing who will profit from the proposed high speed rail, what it will cost the country, and how that money could be used to improve education across the country.

Then they need to focus on corruption and point out how much THAT is costing the country and propose laws that would make any new case of corruption have a minimum 10 year sentence and corruption by an elected official a mandatory 20 year sentence minimum.

PTP could do these things too, but they cannot afford for their electorate to be educated.

[JoeThePoster]

Nothing that 500 baht per head cannot reset.

[Robby nz]

A matter of trust isn't it?

PT seems to be fast running out of those who trust anything they say, for instance an item in todays news :

48.5% of people polled by NIDA believes govt will bring back amnesty bill after 180-day suspension period following Senate's rejection of bill /The Nation

I wonder if a poll was conducted on here what percentage would believe the same thing ?

[ginjag]

Mt. Everest comes to mind.

[Crushdepth]

The public mood is nowhere near as bad as it was in 2006, although a lot of reporters are trying to make it sound that way. The pre-coup tension was palpable.

Not saying we couldn't end up back there though.

[h90]

The public mood is nowhere near as bad as it was in 2006, although a lot of reporters are trying to make it sound that way. The pre-coup tension was palpable.

Not saying we couldn't end up back there though.

In Bangkok not, but in the south yes

[Nickymaster]

Seems like no one is learning lessons from history, although every one knows that history repeats itself .....

For most Thai politicians it's steal as much as you can as long as you are in power. And if the public doesn't rotate them, the PM will. Remember we are at Yingluck's cabinet 6 I believe. Better be transferred than be caught.

[Neilly]

Prayuth Siripanit, a politician from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, proposed a revision to the original amnesty bill so it would cover political cases resulting from the 2006 coup. He said he had met Thaksin overseas and that the former PM told him he wanted to return home.

...a free man, and sod the consequences

[winstonc]

i think it might well quieten down after the wk/end..175 days it might well get very nasty..plenty of people from both sides of the political divide deeply unhappy with this..i predict a riot....just an amusing after thought.....

[fab4]

It's done now. They won't come back from this.

Quit, coup or election. That's the options

The Caddy in Dubai will not allow them to quit. Too much at stake now, 2 Trllion Baht, Amnesty bill which they can sign off on in 175 days.

There is no way that the govt will get 175 days. They will get broken before then. Just wait.

Sondhi is brushing off his speeches right now. He will get the crowds out.

He might have a problem with that - 5 or 6 bail bonds and a 20 year corruption sentence hanging over his head,what do you think the chances of that happening? He is specifically banned from attending political rallies under the bail condition set over the occupation of the airports.

http://khamerlogue.wordpress.com/tag/sondhi-limthongkul/

Or as Chamlong, spokesman for the PAD delicately put it,

"He said that for tactical reasons, Sondhi would not join the rally, but the media outlets under his Manager Group would fully support the rally."

[jdinasia]

It's done now. They won't come back from this.

Quit, coup or election. That's the options

The Caddy in Dubai will not allow them to quit. Too much at stake now, 2 Trllion Baht, Amnesty bill which they can sign off on in 175 days.

There is no way that the govt will get 175 days. They will get broken before then. Just wait.

Sondhi is brushing off his speeches right now. He will get the crowds out.

He might have a problem with that - 5 or 6 bail bonds and a 20 year corruption sentence hanging over his head,what do you think the chances of that happening? He is specifically banned from attending political rallies under the bail condition set over the occupation of the airports.

http://khamerlogue.wordpress.com/tag/sondhi-limthongkul/

Or as Chamlong, spokesman for the PAD delicately put it,

"He said that for tactical reasons, Sondhi would not join the rally, but the media outlets under his Manager Group would fully support the rally."

Fabby,

Are you certain that the bail conditions mentioned in a 2008 article are still in effect? I am fairly sure they are not, and your uncited quote does not match this one from Chamlong

He added that the amendment would allow the government to sign contracts with foreign countries without seeking prior approval from Parliament. "I've asked Sondhi not to join the fight now, but to wait and become my substitute later," Chamlong said. "If anything happens to me, Sondhi will become the last arrow against the government."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/681001-chamlong-sondhi-urge-thais-to-reject-icj-verdict/

whicj implies the exact opposite of what you are stating.

Edited November 15, 2013 by jdinasia

[Thainy Tim]

i think it might well quieten down after the wk/end..175 days it might well get very nasty..plenty of people from both sides of the political divide deeply unhappy with this..i predict a riot....just an amusing after thought.....

I think if they are still around, then they are going to pull something out of the bag around 30 days before the suspension of the bill expires to fake some form of 'public demand' for a re-visit to the bill. Then show that as a justification of ramming it through.

That 30ish day period is when Bangkok will be like a tinderbox. It is definitely the last chance saloon for Thaksin, they must ram this through, and a lot of people already know this.

Plain and simple, they need this government OUT.

In the interim... come December 12th when Abhisit and Suthep are formerly charged with incitement to comit mass murder (or whatever the charges will be). This will draw out a fury of protest from supporters, and be in no doubt, there are millions of them, especially around Bangkok.

This is also a tinderbox situation looming.

With regard to the government having to win back popularity. They don't have a snowball's chance in hell.

[GeorgeO]

Seems like no one is learning lessons from history, although every one knows that history repeats itself .....

and everyone is also very much aware that there is very little evidence of "learning" going on in government circles in this country...!!

[GeorgeO]

i think it might well quieten down after the wk/end..175 days it might well get very nasty..plenty of people from both sides of the political divide deeply unhappy with this..i predict a riot....just an amusing after thought.....

I think if they are still around, then they are going to pull something out of the bag around 30 days before the suspension of the bill expires to fake some form of 'public demand' for a re-visit to the bill. Then show that as a justification of ramming it through.

That 30ish day period is when Bangkok will be like a tinderbox. It is definitely the last chance saloon for Thaksin, they must ram this through, and a lot of people already know this.

Plain and simple, they need this government OUT.

In the interim... come December 12th when Abhisit and Suthep are formerly charged with incitement to comit mass murder (or whatever the charges will be). This will draw out a fury of protest from supporters, and be in no doubt, there are millions of them, especially around Bangkok.

This is also a tinderbox situation looming.

With regard to the government having to win back popularity. They don't have a snowball's chance in hell.

As I have said on many occasions before, we are clearly on the brink of serious civil unrest in this country, indeed, potential civil war, and I wholeheartedly agree with you TT that the only way to avoid this is by ensuring that this government is ousted.

Setting aside the nonsensical, irrelevant and diversionary arguments of 'fab4' and his ilk, there are many of us on this forum who have a very good insight into the political precipice that Thailand currently faces, and it is to be hoped that ordinary Thai citizens can also start to gain some understanding of the very dangerous position that the self-exiled criminal has put everyone in.

It is time, once and for all, to shun the puppet master, and his puppet, and strive for an effective working government capable of clearing up the mess that the PTP have left behind, which might then allow this country to reap the potential benefits of its position in Southeast Asia.

There is no doubt that if Thailand were to be run by politicians with integrity, concern for the welfare of its people and a will to stamp out corruption at all levels, the whole country could be transformed into a REAL hub within a single generation. That would of course also necessitate the disbandment and reinvention of the country's police force...!!

[Showbags]

I disagree very much, the Thai people are very shallow and will do what they are told, if they do not do as they are told, they will follow someone that has been told.

[Chrisswe]

Yes in Bangkok for sure !!!!

[Siripon]

A big problem for the government is the utter failure of their trumpeted policies,

The rice mortgage scheme, 18 million tonnes slowly rotting in the warehouses and another 10 million tonnes being harvested this month!!

The first car tax rebate scheme- so many repossessions

The tablets for schools- it's not really happening.

So if they call an election please tell me what populist policies they can ply next time?

And who will be leader- the sweet,' reconcile not revenge' image of Yingluck is shattered- just the image of a hopelessly out of her depth PM remaining.

Big problems for Thaksin's minions.

[Bagwan]

Mt. Everest comes to mind.

I expect the price of crampons and other mountaineering gear to rise sharply. Maybe the Sherpas of Tibet see an opportunity to make a few shekels here.

[Bagwan]

YL. have you ever learned anything from history?

Leo Amery echoed Oliver Cromwell's words on dissolving the Long Parliament: "You have sat here too long for any good you are doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!

[Ricardo]

A big problem for the government is the utter failure of their trumpeted policies,

The rice mortgage scheme, 18 million tonnes slowly rotting in the warehouses and another 10 million tonnes being harvested this month!!

The first car tax rebate scheme- so many repossessions

The tablets for schools- it's not really happening.

So if they call an election please tell me what populist policies they can ply next time?

And who will be leader- the sweet,' reconcile not revenge' image of Yingluck is shattered- just the image of a hopelessly out of her depth PM remaining.

Big problems for Thaksin's minions.

"And who will be leader"

I suspect the Big Boss will wheel out the Big Whopper, to tell big whoppers on his behalf, at the next election !