Editorial: Early election is no longer to Pheu Thai's advantage

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EDITORIAL
Early election is no longer to Pheu Thai's advantage
The Nation

Amnesty uproar has given the ruling camp a dilemma over dissolving the House

BANGKOK: -- The Senate's rejection of the amnesty bill is anything but the end of the matter. It springs the much more complex question of what lies ahead for the ruling party - and Thai politics as a whole.

As many analysts see it, Thaksin Shinawatra has been dealt the heaviest blow regarding his hope of returning home a free man anytime soon. He had talked about the amnesty bill "setting Thailand back to zero", but it's his own ambition that now seems back at Square One.

Is Thaksin losing the war after winning the battle? Even if the Senate had approved the bill, would he have been able to return and reclaim "his" money? Any politician in his right mind would be deterred by the widespread outrage and opt to steer clear of its epicentre. In the space of a fortnight, Thaksin has seen the legislative door all but slam shut on his legal absolution.

The original amnesty bill was already controversial. The altered version would still have triggered mass protest even if the House of Representatives had spent a week, not a day, deliberating it. But the uproar might not have been this strong had Thaksin and his Pheu Thai Party chosen not to flex their parliamentary superiority so outrageously to rush it through. The pro-Thaksin content of the bill, plus the manner in which the draft was rammed down the public's throat, has suddenly changed the complexion of Thai politics.

Pheu Thai had been in total control before the bill's third reading and passage wreaked political havoc. The Budget Bill had cleared obstacles, the military was being far friendlier and the opposition Democrats had been little more than parliamentary boo-boys. The ruling camp would have scored an easy victory had the House been dissolved and an early election called. Their biggest worry had been how to push the massive Bt2-trillion borrowing plan through Parliament.

Things have changed drastically. The Democrats are now revitalised. The military, while underlining its no-coup pledge, is watching political developments intently. An early election would almost certainly strip Pheu Thai of at least a few seats. In other words, dissolving the House and calling an election now would not give the ruling party a rejuvenating mandate even if it won. Without a strong mandate from a convincing election victory, any controversial, divisive agenda would be even harder to push than it is now.

To have the House of Representatives reconfirm the Senate-rejected bill after 180 days would be nothing short of disastrous. The mass protests have sent an unmistakable message to Thaksin that what is easy inside Parliament might not be so outside, in the wider political world. It leaves him with a dilemma. If he can't push for an amnesty now, then when? It looks like a dead end. Going for broke will very likely be catastrophic, while being patient doesn't provide any real hope, either.

In a recent media interview, a defiant Thaksin said he couldn't even spell the word "lose". Perhaps what he can't spell is "remorse", which would give him a more realistic chance of forgiveness and the return home he craves. If those plans are now doomed, as many people believe, it's because he mistakenly blames his enemies for Thailand's crisis and chooses to ignore his own role in events. After all, "being doomed" is usually a judgement made by one's own ego, not by others.

-- The Nation 2013-11-16

[Thainy Tim]

Their biggest worry had been how to push the massive Bt2-trillion borrowing plan through Parliament.

I think this is still one of their big worries. People are very much against this massive borrowing, and they certainly don't want it in the hands of this particular government.

The people just need to be told that the repayments of that loan is going to be 274 million baht a day every day for the next 50 years.

What a great debt you saddle your/our children and grandchildren with. I can't see how their spending will bring anywhere near that amount back into the country.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Thainy Tim

[EricBerg]

Large groups of the electorate are rapidly being educated. The blind, unconditional love for the missunderstood fugitive is fading. People now can have a more clear image of political leaders and developments. Things are slowly improving.

[JRSoul]

The catalyst to convert idealism to cynicism is called experience.

[NongKhaiKid]

Their biggest worry had been how to push the massive Bt2-trillion borrowing plan through Parliament.

I think this is still one of their big worries. People are very much against this massive borrowing, and they certainly don't want it in the hands of this particular government.

The people just need to be told that the repayments of that loan is going to be 274 million baht a day every day for the next 50 years.

What a great debt you saddle your/our children and grandchildren with. I can't see how their spending will bring anywhere near that amount back into the country.

Leave this to TAT as they are getting tourists to absolutely flock here.

[h90]

Large groups of the electorate are rapidly being educated. The blind, unconditional love for the missunderstood fugitive is fading. People now can have a more clear image of political leaders and developments. Things are slowly improving.

They started with the red shirts. Many who believed in the propaganda first, got really interested in politics ans changed away from Thaksin.

[Mampara]

Their biggest worry had been how to push the massive Bt2-trillion borrowing plan through Parliament.

I think this is still one of their big worries. People are very much against this massive borrowing, and they certainly don't want it in the hands of this particular government.

The people just need to be told that the repayments of that loan is going to be 274 million baht a day every day for the next 50 years.

What a great debt you saddle your/our children and grandchildren with. I can't see how their spending will bring anywhere near that amount back into the country.

GO BIG OR GO HOME

[winstonc]

maybe since the ordinary punter in the street has finally realised their being buggered big style.the pipe dream has faded into black...maybe just maybe.they will wise up...but nothing will change.until the dems get off there equally arrogent <deleted>.and come forward with a better more sustainable alternative.along with the anti-amnesty bill they should have been pushing there.plan.not just anti thaksin agenda.man up wise up and grow up