Civil War in Thailand? Anyone else afraid?

[bangkapi]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

The difference in the USA is that both parties are owned by the same super rich oligarchs/plutocrats.

I do prefer a degree of civil unrest and anarchy like in Bangkok to the police state the USA has become.

[Chicken George]

Hopefully no civil war and no bloodshed. But I think this is possible the worst ghings have got before the shit hits the fan. If no civil war or big problems then that will be good but by this time next year the country will be bankrupt and have major economic problems. .. Maybe more baht for us but the poor will suffer for a long time to come.

[Showbags]

Brace it with enthusiasm.

How many times in your life do you get to live through a civil war and particularly its start up.

Something to tell the grand

[ericthai]

I don't see a civil war happening. That would mean the army is going to fight with the people. The army is the sons and those poor farmers they are not going to starting fighting and killing their own. The worst that would/could happen is a few radicals get themselves armed up and there is a short scrimmage between them and the army which would not last long going against tanks.

[silent]

To the previous post, have you not read or heard about the many surveys conducted across Thailand that document an average of upwards of 70 percent of Thais who believe various forms of corruption are OK so long as they benefit in some way?

That's just one example.

For those of us who work here, in certain professions, these types of realisations are quite important and telling.

And? If ever there's been a case.

[Loptr]

Am I the only one here who is afraid that it's just a matter of time before shit hits the fan?

In a word, no. Every few years the Thais get together to bump heads and this time is no different. After the first few times you witness it, it becomes a non-event, as long as you stay out of it's way.

[ozyjon]

I don't know where some of you are but i lived in a small village in the Isaan region near Sakon Nakhon and one time during a village festival one guy was torn to shreds for invading the festival from outside the village, it was like letting wild dogs attack an individual,, say all you want but when alcohol get into the mix and then the question is asked are you a red or yellow shirt,, i better answer the right words or i might be in trouble, yes they really don't care about the big boys in Bangkok but in this case there is money involved, the parties are paying the locals for their support (small money, 300 baht i hear) i really think it could get nasty if they decide to host rallies and demonstrations in the towns north of Bangkok. Hope i'm wrong.

[thailiketoo]

Hopefully no civil war and no bloodshed. But I think this is possible the worst ghings have got before the shit hits the fan. If no civil war or big problems then that will be good but by this time next year the country will be bankrupt and have major economic problems. .. Maybe more baht for us but the poor will suffer for a long time to come.

Ya right.

[tingtongteesood]

Nope...

[Prbkk]

No civil war. There will be a negotiated solution to this , probably before Monday. Gen Prayuth is very astute and certainly does not want to end his (fixed) term with the country in chaos and bloodshed. He will broker some kind of deal with the PM, election to proceed but with reform and another election within a year, Suthep will retire, a form of amnesty will be approved ( including Thaksin , Abhisit, military). New parties will be formed....with more national focus/policies. YL could become ambassador to UN. Someone else will be PM and try to get the basket case economy back together.

No civil war, no violence, .....I hope

[marko kok prong]

look what happened in a nieghbouring country 40 years ago,i know different times and circumstance,but when you have a dissafected majority dominated but a disinterested minority,ie;people that voted for the govt vs sutheps mob, this can easily be a catalyst for insurrection,as we have seen in syria,after this starts things start to warp,the protagonists become more and more extreme,maybe the original cause is forgotten,all that remains is the bitter well of hate and death,i pray that this does not happen as i would then have to return whence i came destitute,as i suspect would many of us,but to say thai's are to apathetic to have a civil war is to ignore history; ie in the past many small states fighting not only each other but ,burmese,khmers ect,also i would suggest thai and khmer people are not so far away in mind set and yes i know it was a different era and with the backdrop of the war in vietnam, but it could happen,albiet a typical days fighting would be interspersed with breaks for eating[5 or 6],then probably drinking and listening to mulam in the evening,so morning would be the most dangerous.

[tezzainoz]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

Excuse me

there is not Government in power in Thailand at the moment

Only a caretaker government

same when Mr. Leader Thaskin made his run for Freedom

[jackr]

Perhaps, but the average Somchai on the street would have no stomach for it and it'd unlikely end up with farangs getting targetted wholesale in any case. Just expect more of the same tit for tat--until perhaps that bloke in the that emirate is sorted--and some economic problems.

But if it all did kick-off, I'd be happy to see Isaan made a separate state... there'd be no reason for the reds to whnge at what's occurring in Bangkok then.

[hellodolly]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

[StealthEnergiser]

No civil war Yingluck will step aside by negotiation before or on the 13 th .

Thaksin won't let his sister get much more blood on her hands.

Suthep group will have his wish and will begin setting up reform Thailand will be on the right track for once .

[Robby nz]

I don't see a civil war happening. That would mean the army is going to fight with the people. The army is the sons and those poor farmers they are not going to starting fighting and killing their own. The worst that would/could happen is a few radicals get themselves armed up and there is a short scrimmage between them and the army which would not last long going against tanks.

Have you noticed what is happening in the south ?

Should Thaksin get his way and a civil war starts then that's what it would be like all over the country.

It would be the radical armed faction of the reds fighting against the army with the whole country suffering as a consequence.

But they wouldn't actually come out and fight the army they would be picking out easy targets with bombs and hit and run grenade and rifle fire attacks.

After enough blood the man in Dubai would see himself coming back as the great peace maker who would reunite the country.

All other doors have now been closed to him and this is his last desperate attempt, deaths of others mean nothing to him, as he has shown in the past .

But the army chiefs understand and have told Yingluck and Thaksin they are having none of it.

[lazygourmet]

[trigger571]

I think it would be unwise to completely rubbish the possibility of a civil war happening. Many of the elements which could lead to it are already present. One of the major concerns which many overlook is the possible split within the military and the power struggle which I cannot discuss. It's no secret that this time the military base is not a united front, and if a coup did happen (I can never really understand how even on TV people think this is a solution) there is a real danger that they split - and that would trigger the civil war.

As things stand, there is relatively little chance of a full blown war. Lot's of violence probably, but without a military split or interference from third countries (Cambodia - Thaksins friends anyone?) then highly unlikely it will last.

In any case worrying about it will not help. What will help is getting prepared. What would you do if things get nasty and you had to be evacuated within 10 minutes? I hear many say it's far fetched but you tell that to my Aunt who was an expat in Syria and had literally 15 minutes to evacuate. No one ever imagined a few protests could turn into a civil war in that country, like many here don't think this crisis could in Thailand.

So yes, I am not worrying about it, but I am getting prepared for it. Passports and all important documents are all set together with some basic necessities, cash, map, torch and batteries etc.

[geriatrickid]

They'll bicker on for years. But as far as central and northern Thais are concerned, they've got more in common than not. There's always a 'middle path'. There's probably more of a divide in the south, based on religion not politics.

One thing that will unite the south, and I mean all the south. Is their hatred of all things Shinawatra, especially the one "in exile".

Really? In the heartland of corruption, Phuket, I would expect it would be money. Only money.

In the deep south, what unites the population is a hatred of all things non deep south and the potential to return to "independence" as a sultanate.

There are two souths: The Suthep stronghold Surat Thani- krabi-Phuket and the Muslim influenced deep south.

There is a distinct possibility that the deep south could change loyalties if it is in its best interests particularly if the ultra nationalist Suthep backers decide they want to make the deep south "more Thai".

Edited January 9, 2014 by geriatrickid

[thailiketoo]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

The House of Representatives has 500 members. 375 members are directly elected in single constituency elections by first-past-the-post voting. The 375 constituencies are divided by population according to the census and tambons. The other 125 members are voted based on ‘proportional representation’ it is actually in truth a parallel voting system or more precisely the Mixed Member Majoritarian system (MMM). In Thai general elections, the voters have two votes: one to select their Member of Parliament for their constituencies and the second to choose which party they prefer. Seats are assigned to parties as a result through d'Hondt method.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_%28Thailand%29#Elections.

With a turnout of 75.03%,^[5]populist Pheu Thai Party won a majority with 265 seats.^[6] Its leader Yingluck Shinawatra became the first female prime minister in the history of Thailand.^[7] The Democrat Party therefore became the main opposition party with a total of 159 seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2011

I think that should answer your question.

Let me know if you require it to be explained further.

Edited January 9, 2014 by thailiketoo

[geriatrickid]

I don't see a civil war happening. That would mean the army is going to fight with the people. The army is the sons and those poor farmers they are not going to starting fighting and killing their own. The worst that would/could happen is a few radicals get themselves armed up and there is a short scrimmage between them and the army which would not last long going against tanks.

Have you noticed what is happening in the south ?

Should Thaksin get his way and a civil war starts then that's what it would be like all over the country.

It would be the radical armed faction of the reds fighting against the army with the whole country suffering as a consequence.

But they wouldn't actually come out and fight the army they would be picking out easy targets with bombs and hit and run grenade and rifle fire attacks.

After enough blood the man in Dubai would see himself coming back as the great peace maker who would reunite the country.

All other doors have now been closed to him and this is his last desperate attempt, deaths of others mean nothing to him, as he has shown in the past .

But the army chiefs understand and have told Yingluck and Thaksin they are having none of it.

Your assessment of the deep south is wrong.

The violence predated Thaksin. It has been restless with outburst of violence ever since Thailand annexed the sultanates.

The violence we see today is largely opportunistic, taking advantage of Thailand's general instability. The number of violent incidents has always had its ups and downs. 2012 was quieter than 2010- 2011, but 2013 marked a return to the level of violence of 2011. Are you aware that some of the quietest years were during the first Thaksin term? With your logic, Thaksin should be hailed as the man who made the south peaceful. The reality is that he had not yet antagonized the south. The deep south will continue to show violence until Thailand deals with the issue. In the past 25 years, not one government has been able to deal with the situation because it has been the Royal Thai Army running the counter insurgency strategy and not the government. Anytime the civilian government tries to do something it has to filter it through the army.

In respect to your notion that the "redshirts" will engage in guerrilla attacks, you are again incorrect. Have a look at the make up of the current army.

One is more likely to have a mutiny or counter coup than anything else. Many people in Thai Visa rant on about corruption in the civilian government. I suggest they have a close look at the business activities of the military . Is it really appropriate that officers are involved in real estate development and infrastructure investments? Why does the military hold so many "recreational" facilities such as resorts and golf courses? How do some of the officers afford to live in their expensive homes and drive luxury cars on their salaries? How do the massive amounts of yaba continue to make it across the border when the military has complete authority over border security? How is it that the Rohingya trafficking continues and there is no transparency in the matter when it is the military in charge of the issue? Why is he Royal Thai Navy taking legal action against a local Phuket newspaper for reprinting a story that highlighted the corruption and human rights abuses associated with the plight of the Rohingya?

[Prbkk]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

The House of Representatives has 500 members. 375 members are directly elected in single constituency elections by first-past-the-post voting. The 375 constituencies are divided by population according to the census and tambons. The other 125 members are voted based on proportional representation it is actually in truth a parallel voting system or more precisely the Mixed Member Majoritarian system (MMM). In Thai general elections, the voters have two votes: one to select their Member of Parliament for their constituencies and the second to choose which party they prefer. Seats are assigned to parties as a result through d'Hondt method.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_%28Thailand%29#Elections.

With a turnout of 75.03%,^[5]populist Pheu Thai Party won a majority with 265 seats.^[6] Its leader Yingluck Shinawatra became the first female prime minister in the history of Thailand.^[7] The Democrat Party therefore became the main opposition party with a total of 159 seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2011

I think that should answer your question.

Yes, for the 6,000th time in the past 3 months. Got it Doll?

[alex8912]

I am not really standing up for Thai cops but a large percentage of USA big city cops get well over 100K per year and growing. Does anyone know what a full time BKK cop who has been on the job 10 plus years get?

[jimbeam1]

Will take a lot more than a few hundred baht a day and free drinks and rice to get them to raise up and fight the army!

Given that a large proportion of the army are conscripts from the North/North East I would be unsure how stable the army would be if things deteriorated significantly.

That is exactly what I thought last time. As luck would have it, it didn't go any further that time. But who can really say how it will all play out.

jb1

[nomimusic]

War, god god yal, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

Say it again.......

[alex8912]

As a basis for comparison, the red and blue shirts in America (read Rep/Dem) are constantly at each others throats. But we don't worry much about a Civil War. Same same Thailand.

The difference in the USA is that both parties are owned by the same super rich oligarchs/plutocrats.

I do prefer a degree of civil unrest and anarchy like in Bangkok to the police state the USA has become.

Oh yea, have you been to Colorado this week???????? Maybe Thailand should do the same thing. What an awesome way to make tons of tax dollars. Other states and Europe will follow....just watch

[hellodolly]

Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election.

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

The House of Representatives has 500 members. 375 members are directly elected in single constituency elections by first-past-the-post voting. The 375 constituencies are divided by population according to the census and tambons. The other 125 members are voted based on ‘proportional representation’ it is actually in truth a parallel voting system or more precisely the Mixed Member Majoritarian system (MMM). In Thai general elections, the voters have two votes: one to select their Member of Parliament for their constituencies and the second to choose which party they prefer. Seats are assigned to parties as a result through d'Hondt method.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_%28Thailand%29#Elections.

With a turnout of 75.03%,^[5]populist Pheu Thai Party won a majority with 265 seats.^[6] Its leader Yingluck Shinawatra became the first female prime minister in the history of Thailand.^[7] The Democrat Party therefore became the main opposition party with a total of 159 seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2011

I think that should answer your question.

Let me know if you require it to be explained further.

You have described the parlamentarian system not the democratic sysstem. Well done.

[devaram]

Reds are in the most political favor in my area, as the rice Farmers want a slice of the political pie, but they are not the wild eye radicals that you are accustom to seeing demonstrating in Bangkok.

Civil war, I think not, I would be more afraid of a civil war in the US as a result of Anglo's becoming a minority, than a like war in Thailand.

While I am not a backer of the Red Shirts they have the backing of those that matter politically in my area and my opinion does not matter in a country I am a guest in.

Cheers

Why would there be a civil war in the us if anglos became a minority ? I have always felt safer in racially mixed areas, its the all white areas that scare me.

[hellodolly]

I don't see a civil war happening. That would mean the army is going to fight with the people. The army is the sons and those poor farmers they are not going to starting fighting and killing their own. The worst that would/could happen is a few radicals get themselves armed up and there is a short scrimmage between them and the army which would not last long going against tanks.

Have you noticed what is happening in the south ?

Should Thaksin get his way and a civil war starts then that's what it would be like all over the country.

It would be the radical armed faction of the reds fighting against the army with the whole country suffering as a consequence.

But they wouldn't actually come out and fight the army they would be picking out easy targets with bombs and hit and run grenade and rifle fire attacks.

After enough blood the man in Dubai would see himself coming back as the great peace maker who would reunite the country.

All other doors have now been closed to him and this is his last desperate attempt, deaths of others mean nothing to him, as he has shown in the past .

But the army chiefs understand and have told Yingluck and Thaksin they are having none of it.

Your assessment of the deep south is wrong.

The violence predated Thaksin. It has been restless with outburst of violence ever since Thailand annexed the sultanates.

The violence we see today is largely opportunistic, taking advantage of Thailand's general instability. The number of violent incidents has always had its ups and downs. 2012 was quieter than 2010- 2011, but 2013 marked a return to the level of violence of 2011. Are you aware that some of the quietest years were during the first Thaksin term? With your logic, Thaksin should be hailed as the man who made the south peaceful. The reality is that he had not yet antagonized the south. The deep south will continue to show violence until Thailand deals with the issue. In the past 25 years, not one government has been able to deal with the situation because it has been the Royal Thai Army running the counter insurgency strategy and not the government. Anytime the civilian government tries to do something it has to filter it through the army.

In respect to your notion that the "redshirts" will engage in guerrilla attacks, you are again incorrect. Have a look at the make up of the current army.

One is more likely to have a mutiny or counter coup than anything else. Many people in Thai Visa rant on about corruption in the civilian government. I suggest they have a close look at the business activities of the military . Is it really appropriate that officers are involved in real estate development and infrastructure investments? Why does the military hold so many "recreational" facilities such as resorts and golf courses? How do some of the officers afford to live in their expensive homes and drive luxury cars on their salaries? How do the massive amounts of yaba continue to make it across the border when the military has complete authority over border security? How is it that the Rohingya trafficking continues and there is no transparency in the matter when it is the military in charge of the issue? Why is he Royal Thai Navy taking legal action against a local Phuket newspaper for reprinting a story that highlighted the corruption and human rights abuses associated with the plight of the Rohingya?

True the violence predated Thaksin. But it was relativly mild until Thaksin came along. He shall we say super charged it. The violence has nothinng to do with the instability of the government today.

Read your own post you admit it has been going on for a long time before Thaksin.

I agree with you the red shirts will not resort to gurrila attacks. The reason being that there is not enough leaders and Thaksin is not willing to spend the money nessecary to get qualified leaders.

I can see them breaking down into gangs of thugs with no aim other than to do what they do best. Thugarey. I would not be one bit surpprised to see them killimng each other in gang wars.

Has anty one else got a windows 7 thatt has no spell checker. Sorry about the spelling.

[thailiketoo]

What a brillant idea you should have told her about it.

I know the present government was legally elected.

Can yiou explain how in a democracy 48% wins.

48% telling 52% what to do.

I await your explanation.

The House of Representatives has 500 members. 375 members are directly elected in single constituency elections by first-past-the-post voting. The 375 constituencies are divided by population according to the census and tambons. The other 125 members are voted based on ‘proportional representation’ it is actually in truth a parallel voting system or more precisely the Mixed Member Majoritarian system (MMM). In Thai general elections, the voters have two votes: one to select their Member of Parliament for their constituencies and the second to choose which party they prefer. Seats are assigned to parties as a result through d'Hondt method.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_%28Thailand%29#Elections.

With a turnout of 75.03%,^[5]populist Pheu Thai Party won a majority with 265 seats.^[6] Its leader Yingluck Shinawatra became the first female prime minister in the history of Thailand.^[7] The Democrat Party therefore became the main opposition party with a total of 159 seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2011

I think that should answer your question.

Let me know if you require it to be explained further.

You have described the parlamentarian system not the democratic sysstem. Well done.

. Parliamentary democracy - a democracy having a parliament

republic, democracy, commonwealth - a political system in which the supreme power lies in a body of citizens who can elect people to represent them.

A parliamentary system is a system of democratic governance of a state in which the executive branch derives its democratic legitimacy from, and is held accountable to, the legislature (parliament); the executive and legislative branches are thus interconnected. In a parliamentary system.

Do you get it now?

A democracy and a parliament can exist together. A democracy and a parliament are not mutually exclusive terms.

I would suggest you google democracy and parliament.

If you require further information don't hesitate to ask.