Civil War in Thailand? Anyone else afraid?

[MJP]

I see you missed the post where I put links up of an reputable survey on corruption in todays age. You say you have seen corruption in other places but still its just your word. No links? The dead hose is you posting your opinion and calling it fact seems to be what you are doing.

So again I openly would like to see you back some or all of your ideals with links so it can be shown not just to be a rose tinted belief...

I have run business in Chicago and Bangkok and Bangkok is less corrupt IMHO. But that has nothing to do with civil war. The civil war will not be about corruption.

India had a civil war based on religion (I’m not an expert but I think that was why) and they ended up with two countries and millions of dead.

Thailand’s civil unrest is based on laziness of the farmers and the hi so folks. The farmers want Bangkok and Rayong to pay them to drink lao khao and rock on the porch (rice subsidy and loans). Bangkok and Rayong don’t want to pay the farmers to sit on the porch and drink. Same thing in the States farmers and auto workers want to take a month off a year to go deer hunting and drink in the woods.

Both the farmers and the middle class in Bangkok want to stop paying taxes to the rich so they can go to high class clubs in Bangkok and drink expensive lao khao and run over common people in their big cars . The rich who control the army want to keep getting drunk and running over people but are tiring of paying so much money to the army .

The army has warned everyone to keep paying them or they will roll those old tanks again (they really do need new tanks).

As I see it there are three problem groups. The farmers want to sit on the porch and drink and the rich want to sit in clubs and drink and the army wants to drive tanks and drink and the middle class is tired of working to pay for all those people to sit and drink.

No one minds the corruption and thinks paying 200 baht is better than wearing a helmet anyway, homemade booze is OK and bars should really be open late and the give the girl a break she is only trying to support her family…… You get the picture?

I get the picture. Again with the spot on!

This folks, is how it is.

Thailiketoo has clearly identified the common problem here, it's not so much about feudal hierarchy or complex societal structures as it is . . . booze. The excessive consumption of which is something I think is at the heart of so many social ills here as elsewhere.

[thailiketoo]

I see you missed the post where I put links up of an reputable survey on corruption in todays age. You say you have seen corruption in other places but still its just your word. No links? The dead hose is you posting your opinion and calling it fact seems to be what you are doing.

So again I openly would like to see you back some or all of your ideals with links so it can be shown not just to be a rose tinted belief...

I have run business in Chicago and Bangkok and Bangkok is less corrupt IMHO. But that has nothing to do with civil war. The civil war will not be about corruption.

India had a civil war based on religion (I’m not an expert but I think that was why) and they ended up with two countries and millions of dead.

Thailand’s civil unrest is based on laziness of the farmers and the hi so folks. The farmers want Bangkok and Rayong to pay them to drink lao khao and rock on the porch (rice subsidy and loans). Bangkok and Rayong don’t want to pay the farmers to sit on the porch and drink. Same thing in the States farmers and auto workers want to take a month off a year to go deer hunting and drink in the woods.

Both the farmers and the middle class in Bangkok want to stop paying taxes to the rich so they can go to high class clubs in Bangkok and drink expensive lao khao and run over common people in their big cars . The rich who control the army want to keep getting drunk and running over people but are tiring of paying so much money to the army .

The army has warned everyone to keep paying them or they will roll those old tanks again (they really do need new tanks).

As I see it there are three problem groups. The farmers want to sit on the porch and drink and the rich want to sit in clubs and drink and the army wants to drive tanks and drink and the middle class is tired of working to pay for all those people to sit and drink.

No one minds the corruption and thinks paying 200 baht is better than wearing a helmet anyway, homemade booze is OK and bars should really be open late and the give the girl a break she is only trying to support her family…… You get the picture?

So here it seems that you have conceded the point that generally Thais accept and see nothing wrong with the corruption.

You also earlier confessed that corruption is bad.

I'm glad you now agree. But, I might caution you against posting overly negative views of Thais or Thailand.

Cheers

Of course there is similar corruption in most any country (where there are humans), but the degree is not always similar and the attitude towards it is not always similar. The Thai government is not reading my emails. My mayor in Thailand is not a crack smoking bully. Thais unlike some mentally underdeveloped countries know the difference between and wrong, But why do you care? It has little to do with a civil war. The Indian civil war? The American Civil war? Were they about corruption? No. The American civil war comes the closest. With the rich folks in the minority down South and the poor and middle class folks up North with the majority. You probably think the American war was about slavery but it was about something far more important; The Constitution. How many has Thailand had? Therein lies the problem.

Edited November 23, 2013 by thailiketoo

[Thai at Heart]

You trying to compare Thailand to other country makes you look a bit dull or blinded by your love for here. I am happy that you are happy but you might want to stop comparing these things you are not doing well.

You're way off, Scotty. Sometimes it's absolutely relevant, and perhaps even necessary to make these kinds of comparisons. Most of the negative remarks about Thailand made on this forum invariably comes with the implication that it only happens here and no where else. Or it's worse here. Or it's more frequent here. Whatever. So Thailiketoo's arguments are pretty sound, much more so than yours. If you even have an argument.

Indeed, if you don't compare then what is the point? Possibly Thais don't want to get rid of corruption. Then the next question would be "why"? And the next, so what do you want?

Problem is Thais have a problem understanding the "law of unintended consequence". Maybe it's fatalism, but there seems to be a fundamental inability to predict the likely outcome, should it be bad.

So, the possibility that should thaksin come back and the country turn into a dictatorship doesn't seem to have registered as an issue on any of his supporters minds. And the possibility that he is blatently lying even less.

[Thai at Heart]

I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit.

Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them.

There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy.

Can you please explain in detail how this was achieved?

I mean, I am not disregarding it, but how does one milk a region to fund another?

How would you set about achieving it?

Rice exports were taxed up until the late 90s and this is widely credited with providing significant revenue for government to start developing bangkok and the eastern seaboard.

This tax was removed but the revenue not redistributed to the growing areas but was pocketed by the exporters.

[thailiketoo]

I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit.

Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them.

There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy.

Can you please explain in detail how this was achieved?

I mean, I am not disregarding it, but how does one milk a region to fund another?

How would you set about achieving it?

Rice exports were taxed up until the late 90s and this is widely credited with providing significant revenue for government to start developing bangkok and the eastern seaboard.

This tax was removed but the revenue not redistributed to the growing areas but was pocketed by the exporters.

And you tax the middle class and working poor in Bangkok/Rayong through payroll deductions and give to the farmers in the form or rice subsidies.

[DrTuner]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

[a99az]

Providing they can get there rice and the sun still shines peace will prevail.

[thailiketoo]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

Get with it gramps. Rayong is the richest province in Thailand.

[DrTuner]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

Get with it gramps. Rayong is the richest province in Thailand.

Ok, thanks for the enlightenment. Didn't know that, the place looks pretty bleak when driving through. But is it the industry estates that churn the money there or is the place full of "middle class" folks paying income tax ?

[stiggy]

Nope.

[fish fingers]

right now the main players are waiting for the Accession, then it will all kick off. I expect the country to be in deep shit for a year or more and the baht to go above 60 to the £

[thailiketoo]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

Get with it gramps. Rayong is the richest province in Thailand.

Ok, thanks for the enlightenment. Didn't know that, the place looks pretty bleak when driving through. But is it the industry estates that churn the money there or is the place full of "middle class" folks paying income tax ?

Folks work in factories and pay income tax. Google richest and poorest provinces in Thailand,

[meom]

There are certain factors why I believe this that I cannot mention on Thai visa, because in the future events may transpire when the different factions may start battling for power, a sort of free for all where the best man wins.

I'm under the impression what they're doing now is more like juggling for position for when the inevitable happens.

Things will heat up after that is my guess.

[Water Buffalo]

It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

[DrTuner]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

Get with it gramps. Rayong is the richest province in Thailand.

Ok, thanks for the enlightenment. Didn't know that, the place looks pretty bleak when driving through. But is it the industry estates that churn the money there or is the place full of "middle class" folks paying income tax ?

Folks work in factories and pay income tax. Google richest and poorest provinces in Thailand,

I did. Didn't know factory workers are middle class. The per capita also brings another problem, factory workers are most likely still in the Isaan Thabian Baans.

Anyway, besides the point. It won't be a class war, it will be a fight for a sudden power vacuum by men who have no troubles ordering others executed roadside by excuses such as "war on drugs". Clash of clans.

[thailiketoo]

I did. Didn't know factory workers are middle class. The per capita also brings another problem, factory workers are most likely still in the Isaan Thabian Baans.

Anyway, besides the point. It won't be a class war, it will be a fight for a sudden power vacuum by men who have no troubles ordering others executed roadside by excuses such as "war on drugs". Clash of clans.

They change because of voting and home ownership and medical care from Issan to Rayong.

Why would there be a sudden power vacuum is Abhisit and all his folks and the army and all their folks going to be exiled to Dubai?

[Thai at Heart]

I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit.

Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them.

There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy.

Can you please explain in detail how this was achieved?

I mean, I am not disregarding it, but how does one milk a region to fund another?

How would you set about achieving it?

Rice exports were taxed up until the late 90s and this is widely credited with providing significant revenue for government to start developing bangkok and the eastern seaboard.

This tax was removed but the revenue not redistributed to the growing areas but was pocketed by the exporters.

And you tax the middle class and working poor in Bangkok/Rayong through payroll deductions and give to the farmers in the form or rice subsidies.

The policy was widely lauded and gave rice farmers a small stake in building the country.

There are so few tax payers in Thailand, and so many people diddle their taxes it barely figures.

Companies pay taxes. Vat gets paid, excise gets paid. These days there are millions of working Thais who will never pay a cent of income tax and thousands of businesses that will never pay vat.

The disgruntled middle class will have till prove to me that they pay all they should before they moan about it go m getting nicked.

[Thai at Heart]

What is it with the Rayong ? I get BKK middle class, that's the hip thingy now, but Rayong ??

Get with it gramps. Rayong is the richest province in Thailand.

Ok, thanks for the enlightenment. Didn't know that, the place looks pretty bleak when driving through. But is it the industry estates that churn the money there or is the place full of "middle class" folks paying income tax ?

Folks work in factories and pay income tax. Google richest and poorest provinces in Thailand,

Factory labour would have to be on a pretty good whack to get into income tax. Just look at the allowances.

[DrTuner]

I did. Didn't know factory workers are middle class. The per capita also brings another problem, factory workers are most likely still in the Isaan Thabian Baans.

Anyway, besides the point. It won't be a class war, it will be a fight for a sudden power vacuum by men who have no troubles ordering others executed roadside by excuses such as "war on drugs". Clash of clans.

They change because of voting and home ownership and medical care from Issan to Rayong.

Why would there be a sudden power vacuum is Abhisit and all his folks and the army and all their folks going to be exiled to Dubai?

You do know that to be in a Thabian Baan you need to be the owner of the house or get the owner to put you in ? Most are probably renting, not going to happen.

I can't answer your question, sorry. Forum rules.

[icare999]

Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens

Haha. You think if the army comes in, those up in isaan won't fight them up country? Burn down a few city halls and the rest.

The biggest potential Areas that could blow up is isaan

no they won't or not enough of them. If theirs enough of a crackdown they will 99% just go home and give up especially if theirs no money in it. If army cracked down totally at start in 2010 it would have been over in a day.

[Thai at Heart]

Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens

Haha. You think if the army comes in, those up in isaan won't fight them up country? Burn down a few city halls and the rest.

The biggest potential Areas that could blow up is isaan

no they won't or not enough of them. If theirs enough of a crackdown they will 99% just go home and give up especially if theirs no money in it. If army cracked down totally at start in 2010 it would have been over in a day.

You did notice the rampage through khon Kaen, ubon and a few other places whilst they burnt down city hall. So what you going to do?

If they come out and sit on the centre of town and start attacking government buildings? Quell them with love and persuasion?

You can't have a coup and allow political protest so this ends with a curfew and no protests or, the reds are going to put up stages and start rallying.

How does one overcome a coup?, with love and persuasion?

They can get thousands in a city in isaan if they want. I would say 10s of thousands of they really want to, at the drop of a hat.

Edited November 23, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[Latikaa]

Lighten up Francis.

l should we all?

[thailiketoo]

I did. Didn't know factory workers are middle class. The per capita also brings another problem, factory workers are most likely still in the Isaan Thabian Baans.

Anyway, besides the point. It won't be a class war, it will be a fight for a sudden power vacuum by men who have no troubles ordering others executed roadside by excuses such as "war on drugs". Clash of clans.

They change because of voting and home ownership and medical care from Issan to Rayong.

Why would there be a sudden power vacuum is Abhisit and all his folks and the army and all their folks going to be exiled to Dubai?

You do know that to be in a Thabian Baan you need to be the owner of the house or get the owner to put you in ? Most are probably renting, not going to happen.

I can't answer your question, sorry. Forum rules.

There are thousands upon thousands of new houses in the Rayong area. Yes I know. You can see most driving on the main streets but from the air even more impressive. Not apartments or condo buildings but single family homes (tens of thousands).

[Thai at Heart]

I did. Didn't know factory workers are middle class. The per capita also brings another problem, factory workers are most likely still in the Isaan Thabian Baans.

Anyway, besides the point. It won't be a class war, it will be a fight for a sudden power vacuum by men who have no troubles ordering others executed roadside by excuses such as "war on drugs". Clash of clans.

They change because of voting and home ownership and medical care from Issan to Rayong.

Why would there be a sudden power vacuum is Abhisit and all his folks and the army and all their folks going to be exiled to Dubai?

You do know that to be in a Thabian Baan you need to be the owner of the house or get the owner to put you in ? Most are probably renting, not going to happen.

I can't answer your question, sorry. Forum rules.

There are thousands upon thousands of new houses in the Rayong area. Yes I know. You can see most driving on the main streets but from the air even more impressive. Not apartments or condo buildings but single family homes (tens of thousands).

I lived in Rayong until 2 years ago. Where are these thousands of new houses?

[thailiketoo]

They change because of voting and home ownership and medical care from Issan to Rayong.

Why would there be a sudden power vacuum is Abhisit and all his folks and the army and all their folks going to be exiled to Dubai?

You do know that to be in a Thabian Baan you need to be the owner of the house or get the owner to put you in ? Most are probably renting, not going to happen.

I can't answer your question, sorry. Forum rules.

There are thousands upon thousands of new houses in the Rayong area. Yes I know. You can see most driving on the main streets but from the air even more impressive. Not apartments or condo buildings but single family homes (tens of thousands).

I lived in Rayong until 2 years ago. Where are these thousands of new houses?

Check real estate Rayong. I don't think on topic. I know we all want to not acknowledge the Thai economic boom but google richest and poorest Thai provinces. After that you can attack the statistics.

The fact is the success of Rayong, the richest province in Thailand will make any attempt at a civil war difficult. Too many people doing too well to mess with politics beyond a local level.

There is a path to go from the lowest Thai class to middle class through the employment opportunities in Rayong and the industrial East Coast of Thailand.

Edited November 24, 2013 by thailiketoo

[DrTuner]

Somehow I too find the thought of Rayong PTT office employees getting pissed off about paying 20% income tax and raiding the nearby naval base for M-16s in order to invade BKK a bit far fetched. The eastern seaboard is a bit of Kunplome area anyway, not so interested in skirmishes between Isaan and BKK.

But even they will get ticked off when a power hungry megalomaniac in exile finally manages to create a hole in legislation for him to worm his way through.

[thailiketoo]

Somehow I too find the thought of Rayong PTT office employees getting pissed off about paying 20% income tax and raiding the nearby naval base for M-16s in order to invade BKK a bit far fetched. The eastern seaboard is a bit of Kunplome area anyway, not so interested in skirmishes between Isaan and BKK.

But even they will get ticked off when a power hungry megalomaniac in exile finally manages to create a hole in legislation for him to worm his way through.

Sattahip is Marines, Navy and Air Force with some army thrown in. The town itself is mixed factions. The Navy owns the airport if I remember correctly and the Navy and the Army are on different sides. So I don't see a civil war starting there. Too confused who is on which side. I bow to anyone with more expertise on the area.

[plachon]

Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens

Haha. You think if the army comes in, those up in isaan won't fight them up country? Burn down a few city halls and the rest.

The biggest potential Areas that could blow up is isaan

no they won't or not enough of them. If theirs enough of a crackdown they will 99% just go home and give up especially if theirs no money in it. If army cracked down totally at start in 2010 it would have been over in a day.

You did notice the rampage through khon Kaen, ubon and a few other places whilst they burnt down city hall. So what you going to do?

If they come out and sit on the centre of town and start attacking government buildings? Quell them with love and persuasion?

You can't have a coup and allow political protest so this ends with a curfew and no protests or, the reds are going to put up stages and start rallying.

How does one overcome a coup?, with love and persuasion?

They can get thousands in a city in isaan if they want. I would say 10s of thousands of they really want to, at the drop of a hat.

You mean if Thaksin wants........and is prepared to pay for their attendance. These days, that is no longer a given.....either his munificence or the Red Shirts willingness to turn up en masse, given the past experience of often not being paid for showing up (disgruntled Reds) or being jailed for their 2010 looting and burning spree and then being spurned by their hero (severely pissed Reds). So, these days, I would seriously doubt if he could get more than a couple of thousand to turn up in his loyalist hometowns, such as Khon Kaen, Udon or Ubon. Simply put, Thaksin seems to have had his day in the sun and now it's a gradual fizzle out. That's not to say that there won't be the odd flare up or bang here and there, but it's not going to be like the 2010 fireworks I suspect.

[MJP]

Interesting to read on another thread that following Thaksin's deportation from the UK he vowed on his return to Thailand to cancel all British peoples visas.

This figures. I remember a few years back being in an awkward situation at a Thai friends (big time Red Shirt) house when the Red Shirts were having a debate on the television and were so racist about the British my sister-in-law (very pro-British, lived there and loved the open culture) became extremely vocal in denouncing the Reds because of it.

It's all very precarious.

[Somtamnication]

A falang's Thai friend? Do they really exist?