Average Thai household debt reaches 160,000 baht

[phitsanulokjohn]

UK household debt in 2012 was 54000 pound. So Thai debt seem minimal compared.

So do Thai earnings by comparison,with no state benefits to help them out.

[jdinasia]

http://web.nso.go.th/survey/house_seco/socio.htm past surveys ..... (and do not make the mistake as some have, that they called up random people on the phone and asked questions)

[phitsanulokjohn]

If 1 month ago you bought a condo for 3 million bhat at 30 bhat to 1 USD it cost you S100,000 USD

Now it is 32 bhat to the USD so you lost $6250.00 USD in 1 month your condo is worth $93750.00

This happened in USA and I have a very bad feeling for Thailand. My nepher bought a $375,000 home in florida for $84,000 3 years ago. I saw many people walk away from their home because they owed more on their house than it was worth.

Exactly correct.

That was all part of the US sub-prime mortgage scam that caught out a lot of the western banks who were all throwing their own savers money into it and anyone could buy a house and get a mortgage if they had a job for more than 3 months.

Then the bubble burst, the yanks walked away and threw the keys at the mortgage lenders which spelled the end for the likes of Fannie May and Freddie Mac the two most rampant lenders who file for bankruptcy on the same day which basically halved the property market prices in a month. May I add that both these organizations were US government sponsored, which is why the US taxpayer was forced to bail out the institutions.

The exact same thing is happening now and I would say we were less than a year at worst and 2 years at best from an almighty collapse.

But the Thais will not learn from the mistakes of the west. My wife regularly gets phone calls from our banks offering loans etc... We don't need any loans, but they still ask.

I just shake my head and smile, because there is nothing else I can do.

Wait till people start losing their jobs and the banks start calling their money in,or worse the banks start to collapse and the baht's not worth a toss.It's not difficult to predict what'll happen next.Banks have just announced an interest rate cut,lovely for all us farangs.

[phitsanulokjohn]

The saying pack of cards seems to be springing to mind.

[Bel Mondo]

Less than what your Thai wife or girlfriend steals from you every month.

[bunnydrops]

Locally the farmers I know are in huge debt. Some just keeping enough rice from their harvest to feed themselves, the rest goes to paying debts. The people who run the harvesters will not cut unless paid cash since many take their rice and disappear.. The woman next door, borrows from loan sharks to pay the debt she owes to the bank, just sold half her land to pay interest on the money she owes them. The wife of a man that did some construction work for me has owed money to a community fund for 3 years. Hasn't paid a baht on it. As she says "What are they going to do , Kill me?" The local government has several times tried to get the people to keep a record of what they spend Some try but don't know how and the rest just don't bother. They all know for sure that this is the year they win the lottery.

[Thai at Heart]

According to a recent NSO survey on social and economic situation of Thai households during the first 6 months of this year, 54.4% of the households were indebted. The survey says that housing loans, daily purchase of commodity products and education expenses accounted for the majority of the household debts currently averaging at 159,492 baht.

So is that 54% of houses have an average debt of 159k or ALL household debts accounted for 159k? When you consider how many cars are on loan at considerably more than 159k, and the huge amount of houses that have taken on mortgages recently, I would say that I am absolutely astounded that it isn't more. 159k? Barely makes the loan on a micro-car.

It is the average - most people in thailand don't have a vehicle or their own home and it includes them as well as those who do. That makes the debt of those who do much higher than 159000.

Well, what a ridiculous way to show a statistic. It's all very well on the average to measure it this way, but it doens't help when the absolute average number can be so skewed. That said, this is a combination of many types of debt, and the value of those in debt who have a house mortgage, would obviously be significantly higher than 159k. So all in all, a very odd set of figures, since cars and houses being the two most dangerous types of debt. If it is 160k on half, then it is 320k for those houses in debt. This is akin to the debt on one medium car on average. Hardly horrendous.

Are they really telling us that the vast majority of people living in new moobhans in the last 5 years paid cash? Or would it be better to assume that only about 15% of the people in the whole country actually have a mortgage on property? I find that very hard ot believe. If it wasn't the case, the figure for indebtedness would be much higher. A basic bungalow costs 1.5 mn, and the basic mortgage would be about 1mn minimum, so how is the average figure so low? Is private house ownership and mortgages really that low? I don't think so.

My mate in the city is busy servicing an 850k GBP mortgage. Now you want to see some rough finger nails.....

No it is not ridiculous. It is just your own lack of economic knowledge.

Everything in the OP is crystal clear to those who understand BASIC economics.

Let's say that there are a total of 20 million households in Thailand. Each has B159K of domestic debt applied to it. Now a lot may have no debt, so lets say that 40% hold this debt burden, then it is much more than the 159K.

In the countryside, one old beat up pickup can be used for 4 households and not have a shiny new car in the drive, and someone assuming that every Thai house owns a brand new car has only been in Thailand 2 weeks of has not been 1 KM from where they live..... EVER!

This is a huge debt, and interesting to see that Northeastern Thailand is the highest..... Thaksin country.

The main thing you have to consider is that all this debt is what is propping up the economy in Thailand. Once the debt bubble bursts, a lot of Thailand is going to be in severe poverty. They will ALL default and banks will go bust left, right and center.

Thailand is living on borrowed time. It is exactly the same in China and they are crapping themselves over it while Thailand is blissfully ignorant because the government are taking the credit for all this wealth that is all false. When China's bubble bursts, Thailand will follow within 2 weeks.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats have to clear all the mess up.

Your explanation states that those houses in debt are actually double the 160k in debt because half ate not

So if one house was in debt for 10000000 baht, would that represent a risk to society when expressed across 1000000 houses? The average number means nothing unless compared to the income of those houses.

Rolling mortgage, cars and other loans into one global number shows very little. If one house borrows 5mn for a house versus 20 houses borrowing 250k for a car. Houses are necessities borrowed over 25 years, cars are luxuries for 5. I get far more concerned about people defaulting on their house than having to sell their galaxy s4.

[Thainy Tim]

'Your explanation states that those houses in debt are actually double the 160k in debt because half ate not

So if one house was in debt for 10000000 baht, would that represent a risk to society when expressed across 1000000 houses? The average number means nothing unless compared to the income of those houses.

Rolling mortgage, cars and other loans into one global number shows very little. If one house borrows 5mn for a house versus 20 houses borrowing 250k for a car. Houses are necessities borrowed over 25 years, cars are luxuries for 5. I get far more concerned about people defaulting on their house than having to sell their galaxy s4.'

The actual % of households carrying the debt burden is 34%

so you can triple the debt to around 480K baht because 66% of households are debt free.

100,000 car owners bought during the first car discount scheme have already defaulted on their loan.

All it takes is for the bubble to burst and a sharp increase in interest rates and it's goodbye Vienna.

The banks go belly up and who is there to bail them out? The government doesn't even have the money to shore up the rice scam at the detriment to the Agricultural Bank (a Thai government owned bank).

Forbes reported that 3 government owned banks were on the verge of collapse with the one above being named as one of them.

Thailand also has an import/export deficit that is out of control and getting worse by the month with exports down against imports despite Yingluck's lies yesterday that one of her government's crowning achievements was a boost in exports.... <deleted>, exports may have grown by 1% or whatever (which is piss poor) but against the surge in Imports it has dramatically decreased.

Yingluck may be able to fool a few of the people, but all those with a decent knowledge of economics will see that it's all lies.

Here is where a lot of the money is being wasted...... Populist policies to buy votes.

The rice scheme that will cost approx 270 billion baht.

A subsidy scheme for first-time home buyers that will cost the government 12 billion baht in lost revenues

A three-year debt moratorium program that will cost 1.5 billion baht per year

A 2012 corporate income tax cut from 30 percent to 23 percent, which resulted in a 52 billion baht revenue loss.

Corporate income taxes were further cut to 20 percent in 2013, which is expected to cause a 74 billion baht revenue loss

Personal income tax has been cut to promote consumption, which will result in a 32 billion baht revenue loss in 2013

A fuel subsidy that cost 90 billion baht

Free computer tablets for students that cost the government 16 billion baht in 2012 and is expected to cost 12 billion baht this year

A salary increase for government officials that cost 18 billion baht in 2012 and is expected to cost 23 billion baht in 2013

A rubber subsidy that will cost 21.2 billion baht

The 2.2 trillion baht loan that will cost the government 100 billion a year for 50 years.

Where d'ya think the money goes?... Pop goes the weasel.

Read this article by Forbes.... It is a MUST read.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

Edited November 27, 2013 by Thainy Tim

[JSixpack]

If 1 month ago you bought a condo for 3 million bhat at 30 bhat to 1 USD it cost you S100,000 USD

It cost you 3 million baht.

Now it is 32 bhat to the USD so you lost $6250.00 USD in 1 month your condo is worth $93750.00

No. It's worth what the market says it is. That would likely be around 3 million baht. But if the owner sells to a farang, he may be able to raise the price to match the new exchange rate and possibly gain an extra B200,000. Hence owners raised prices and cleaned up in baht after the '97 crash.

But anyway you don't gain or lose anything until you sell it. Until then, you have what you paid for: your condo. You've fallen into one the most beloved fallacies on TV inevitably repeated in all real estate threads.

Why choose one month ago? Why not choose the buy at $1 = B45 as it was years ago?

Exchange rates do vary with time, yes. And the value of all investments goes up and down over time. You can't predict the future with certainty.

This happened in USA and I have a very bad feeling for Thailand. My nepher bought a $375,000 home in florida for $84,000 3 years ago. I saw many people walk away from their home because they owed more on their house than it was worth.

You mean your nepher paid in baht for real estate in the USA too? Wow. What exchange rate did he use then?

Your average Thai isn't concerned w/ exchange rates when buying a condo. He's paid in baht and buys in baht. I don't quite see how the exchange rate would affect his sale to another Thai? And if the dollar is stronger, he might be able to get more baht if selling to a farang. That'd be a win.

Farangs mostly pay in cash here 'cause it's so hard to get credit. Then they live in their condos, not walk away--they don't owe anything but monthly fees.

So overall you don't have a point.

BTW, what a great thread for good ol' fashioned doomsayin'! Yee-haw! THE END IS NEAR.

[tingtongteesood]

It says 'average Thai household' so one would assume that is the so called 'nuclear family', 2 parents and 2 kids so that average debt is between the 4 of them so more like an average of 40,000 per person. not that much really. ....

[Lobo4819]

"The survey also says that 91.6% of the debts are done within the formal banking system, 3.8% have deals with both legal and illegal creditors, and 4.6% rely on illegal money lending services. It also indicates that the average household debt made through traditional loan sources is 156,356 baht, which is 50 times higher than that made through illegal lenders."

Combining 3.8% and 4.6% gives us, according to NSO, about an 8.4% rate of illegal lending, which is most certainly a low estimate.

It sounds like they are trying to downplay the illegal lenders and 'bookies,' which if reported accurately, may dwarf the figures stated, and at 20%+ interest per month. In addition, creditors allow debtors to fall into 'friendly arrears' wherein they may pay every third or fourth payment yet still maintain their property. At 20%+ monthly interest, who wouldn't? Banks are loath to repossess, as it almost always results in a write-off. And worse, an embarrassment for all concerned. What could be worse?

[Ulic]

If that is correct and includes, the mortgage and all other debt, I think Thai households are in good shape.

Obviously many have no debt and others up to there eyeballs but it looks reasonable to me. I take it those

with greater debt, make more money and have more assets, house, car, and those with less debt, earn less

and have fewer assets. As long as Thai banks have not gone the way of US mortgage companies (Country Wide)

in accepting liars loans loans. I think things are fine. Asians are all about leverage and used to being on the edge.

[jdinasia]

"The survey also says that 91.6% of the debts are done within the formal banking system, 3.8% have deals with both legal and illegal creditors, and 4.6% rely on illegal money lending services. It also indicates that the average household debt made through traditional loan sources is 156,356 baht, which is 50 times higher than that made through illegal lenders."

Combining 3.8% and 4.6% gives us, according to NSO, about an 8.4% rate of illegal lending, which is most certainly a low estimate.

It sounds like they are trying to downplay the illegal lenders and 'bookies,' which if reported accurately, may dwarf the figures stated, and at 20%+ interest per month. In addition, creditors allow debtors to fall into 'friendly arrears' wherein they may pay every third or fourth payment yet still maintain their property. At 20%+ monthly interest, who wouldn't? Banks are loath to repossess, as it almost always results in a write-off. And worse, an embarrassment for all concerned. What could be worse?

Working from a flawed premise there .... while very many may have small amounts out from illegal sources (most at 10% not 20%) the overall amount per person would be small compared to credit cards, cars, motorcycles, mortgages which would all be in the 91.6%

As far as repossessions go ....

[Thai at Heart]

If that is correct and includes, the mortgage and all other debt, I think Thai households are in good shape.

Obviously many have no debt and others up to there eyeballs but it looks reasonable to me. I take it those

with greater debt, make more money and have more assets, house, car, and those with less debt, earn less

and have fewer assets. As long as Thai banks have not gone the way of US mortgage companies (Country Wide)

in accepting liars loans loans. I think things are fine. Asians are all about leverage and used to being on the edge.

I think everything has to be measured very low. Essentially it has to mean that the amount of mortgages in total across the country is extremely low. Otherwise, the average value would have to be greater than this figure.

It's impossibly low or mortgages are impossibly low.

[Torrens54]

'All Thais will be rich within six months', unfortunately it will all be on-credit, and you'll have to pay interest too !

Oh, and the government will have mortgaged you & your childrens' future, for the next 50 years, as well !

Yay for Red Finance !

Sounds like they've been taking tips from that OBAMA guy in the USA.

[robsamui]

The saying pack of cards seems to be springing to mind.

Whose mind?

To my mind springs the saying 'house of cards'.

R

[robsamui]

most thai people i know don't know how interest works... i've explained it to numerous "puan" that a 40000TB wave will cost them 55000. they look at me like i'm einstein...

I think they are not interested how it works at all! The total repayment is of no importance.

That astonished look you interpreted as due to you being Einstein-like is probably their surprise as to why anyone should be so silly even to bother thinking about this.

They work out if they can afford to pay the monthly payments, and that's that!

End of story.

Edited November 27, 2013 by robsamui

[NeverSure]

It's interesting that I didn't notice a comment about all of the empty condos and houses, many of which are financed by banks. Yes, some are financed by offshore money, but I still see a huge bubble.

I quit posting about all of this in the financial forum here some time ago because I got tired of people just defending Thailand and its marvelous economy and growth. I decided to just sit back and let them see for themselves.

I still warn. I wouldn't have more money invested in a Thai condo or in Thai stocks or in banks than I could afford to lose. The link to Forbes above is a must read. The question isn't "if" Thailand will crash, but "when."

[wooloomooloo]

I hate to say it, but I'm waiting for the bubble to burst. I have cash to invest.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Thai at Heart]

I hate to say it, but I'm waiting for the bubble to burst. I have cash to invest.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

If Thailand isn't sorted out and interest rates in the USA Europe and the uk start rising, the baht will devalue.

But by then Thailand will probably be sorted. The USA controls the baht/USD rate with their monetary policy far more than anything Thailand can do. The baht floats these days so move is gradual instead of 97.

[Thai at Heart]

Note today, they cut interest rates. There you go, baht should go down a bit today.

[japatee]

 

 

 

According to a recent NSO survey on social and economic situation of Thai households during the first 6 months of this year, 54.4% of the households were indebted. The survey says that housing loans, daily purchase of commodity products and education expenses accounted for the majority of the household debts currently averaging at 159,492 baht.

 

 

 

So is that 54% of houses have an average debt of 159k or ALL household debts accounted for 159k?   When you consider how many cars are on loan at considerably more than 159k, and the huge amount of houses that have taken on mortgages recently, I would say that I am absolutely astounded that it isn't more.  159k?  Barely makes the loan on a micro-car.

 

 

It is the average - most people in thailand don't have a vehicle or their own home and it includes them as well as those who do. That makes the debt of those who do much higher than 159000.

 

 

 

 

Well, what a ridiculous way to show a statistic.  It's all very well on the average to measure it this way, but it doens't help when the absolute average number can be so skewed.  That said, this is a combination of many types of debt, and the value of those in debt who have a house mortgage, would obviously be significantly higher than 159k.  So all in all, a very odd set of figures, since cars and houses being the two most dangerous types of debt.  If it is 160k on half, then it is 320k for those houses in debt.  This is akin to the debt on one medium car on average.  Hardly horrendous.  

 

Are they really telling us that the vast majority of people living in new moobhans in the last 5 years paid cash?  Or would it be better to assume that only about 15% of the people in the whole country actually have a mortgage on property?  I find that very hard ot believe.  If it wasn't the case, the figure for indebtedness would be much higher.  A basic bungalow costs 1.5 mn, and the basic mortgage would be about 1mn minimum, so how is the average figure so low?  Is private house ownership and mortgages really that low?  I don't think so.

 

My mate in the city is busy servicing an 850k GBP mortgage.  Now you want to see some rough finger nails.....

 

 

No it is not ridiculous. It is just your own lack of economic knowledge.

 

Everything in the OP is crystal clear to those who understand BASIC economics.

 

Let's say that there are a total of 20 million households in Thailand. Each has B159K of domestic debt applied to it. Now a lot may have no debt, so lets say that 40% hold this debt burden, then it is much more than the 159K.

 

In the countryside, one old beat up pickup can be used for 4 households and not have a shiny new car in the drive, and someone assuming that every Thai house owns a brand new car has only been in Thailand 2 weeks of has not been 1 KM from where they live..... EVER!

 

This is a huge debt, and interesting to see that Northeastern Thailand is the highest..... Thaksin country.

 

The main thing you have to consider is that all this debt is what is propping up the economy in Thailand. Once the debt bubble bursts, a lot of Thailand is going to be in severe poverty. They will ALL default and banks will go bust left, right and center.

 

Thailand is living on borrowed time. It is exactly the same in China and they are crapping themselves over it while Thailand is blissfully ignorant because the government are taking the credit for all this wealth that is all false. When China's bubble bursts, Thailand will follow within 2 weeks.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats have to clear all the mess up.

 

 

Does anyone know which banks, if any, would be safest given this likely bubble burst?

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[planr]

It's interesting that I didn't notice a comment about all of the empty condos and houses, many of which are financed by banks. Yes, some are financed by offshore money, but I still see a huge bubble.

I quit posting about all of this in the financial forum here some time ago because I got tired of people just defending Thailand and its marvelous economy and growth. I decided to just sit back and let them see for themselves.

I still warn. I wouldn't have more money invested in a Thai condo or in Thai stocks or in banks than I could afford to lose. The link to Forbes above is a must read. The question isn't "if" Thailand will crash, but "when."

I hate to say it, but I'm waiting for the bubble to burst. I have cash to invest.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

There is no bubble. Are prices for new condo projects too high? Yes. Is there more supply in the marketplace than there is demand? Yes. However these two facts alone do not a bubble make.

Developers are already putting the brakes on new condo projects in Bangkok and tightening their lending practices. Commercial banks are already tightening lending in both the mortgage and project finance sectors. All of this is being done because both developers and lenders realize the market is getting less liquid and cannot be sustained.

As to your point about empty condos/houses... it is certainly valid to say that a not insignificant portion of units are not currently being lived in, but again, that fact alone doesn't indicate a bubble. If you look at the rate of NPL's in the mortgage sector, it has increased slightly in recent years, but it isn't ballooning, and there is no indication that it will.

I don't browse the finance sub-forum, but if you care to share some salient, fact-based evidence of a pending bubble, I'm all ears.

[MobileContent]

I think compared to the US and Western countries the average household debts for Thai's looks good.

[waza]

Some very salient point here........

Thailand’s household debt grew at an alarming 13.6 percent per year since 2008, bringing the country’s household debt-to-GDP ratio to 77 percent from 55 percent, which is up radically from just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at a blistering 27 percent annual rate. Thailand now has one of the highest household debt-to-GDP ratios in Asia:................

Credit and property bubbles go hand-in-hand, and Thailand’s current bubble economy is no exception in this regard. Thailand’s property bubble is most acute in the condo market, the predominant type of dwelling that most of Bangkok’s residents live in, and is the primary asset of choice for foreign speculators, many of whom hail from Singapore and Hong Kong (which are experiencing bubbles of their own, http://www.indopacificreview.com/sk_portfolio/thailands-bubble-economy-heading-1997-style-crash/

Edited November 28, 2013 by waza

[DrTuner]

Perhaps a real life story would bring some ground contact to the situation. A Thai family well known to me, working white collar jobs, went on the credit train and bought not only the house, but also a new Pajero in almost one shot. I looked at the sudden change of their lifestyle with a bit of worry but kept my mouth shut since they were making face and all that jazz.

A few months ago the wife of the family lost the job and very quickly it became evident they were overleveraged. They asked my wife for a loan, which she rejected. It only took a few weeks before they had to start selling their belongings, including the car. There were no apparent signs of financial distress from them before, apart from my suspicions before the sudden meltdown.

Now the question stands .. how common is my story ?

[Thai at Heart]

Perhaps a real life story would bring some ground contact to the situation. A Thai family well known to me, working white collar jobs, went on the credit train and bought not only the house, but also a new Pajero in almost one shot. I looked at the sudden change of their lifestyle with a bit of worry but kept my mouth shut since they were making face and all that jazz.

A few months ago the wife of the family lost the job and very quickly it became evident they were overleveraged. They asked my wife for a loan, which she rejected. It only took a few weeks before they had to start selling their belongings, including the car. There were no apparent signs of financial distress from them before, apart from my suspicions before the sudden meltdown.

Now the question stands .. how common is my story ?

Well that goes waaaaaaay beyond 160k.

That's why I find the number hard to believe considering how many mortgages must have been granted in the last 5 years.

[planr]

Some very salient point here........

Thailand’s household debt grew at an alarming 13.6 percent per year since 2008, bringing the country’s household debt-to-GDP ratio to 77 percent from 55 percent, which is up radically from just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at a blistering 27 percent annual rate. Thailand now has one of the highest household debt-to-GDP ratios in Asia:................

Credit and property bubbles go hand-in-hand, and Thailand’s current bubble economy is no exception in this regard. Thailand’s property bubble is most acute in the condo market, the predominant type of dwelling that most of Bangkok’s residents live in, and is the primary asset of choice for foreign speculators, many of whom hail from Singapore and Hong Kong (which are experiencing bubbles of their own, http://www.indopacificreview.com/sk_portfolio/thailands-bubble-economy-heading-1997-style-crash/

Copying a block of text from a blog that's been online since August that's simply reposted content from Forbes? That's some good detective work Lou.

1) Rising household debt will absolutely negatively impact the economy over the next year or two, but is neither a direct cause nor closely correlated with any sort of bubble.

2) Condos are NOT the predominant housing type in Bangkok. As of the 2010 Census, there 267,000 condos registered in Bangkok against a total of 2.8 million total housing units... less than 10%. The last three years has not changed this situation dramatically.

3) Condos are NOT the primary asset of choice for foreign speculators or investors. Property Funds offer much better returns than buying and flipping or buying and renting condos in Bangkok

4) There are no property bubbles in Singapore or Hong Kong either...

[waza]

Some very salient point here........

Thailand’s household debt grew at an alarming 13.6 percent per year since 2008, bringing the country’s household debt-to-GDP ratio to 77 percent from 55 percent, which is up radically from just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at a blistering 27 percent annual rate. Thailand now has one of the highest household debt-to-GDP ratios in Asia:................

Credit and property bubbles go hand-in-hand, and Thailand’s current bubble economy is no exception in this regard. Thailand’s property bubble is most acute in the condo market, the predominant type of dwelling that most of Bangkok’s residents live in, and is the primary asset of choice for foreign speculators, many of whom hail from Singapore and Hong Kong (which are experiencing bubbles of their own, http://www.indopacificreview.com/sk_portfolio/thailands-bubble-economy-heading-1997-style-crash/

Copying a block of text from a blog that's been online since August that's simply reposted content from Forbes? That's some good detective work Lou.

1) Rising household debt will absolutely negatively impact the economy over the next year or two, but is neither a direct cause nor closely correlated with any sort of bubble.

2) Condos are NOT the predominant housing type in Bangkok. As of the 2010 Census, there 267,000 condos registered in Bangkok against a total of 2.8 million total housing units... less than 10%. The last three years has not changed this situation dramatically.

3) Condos are NOT the primary asset of choice for foreign speculators or investors. Property Funds offer much better returns than buying and flipping or buying and renting condos in Bangkok

4) There are no property bubbles in Singapore or Hong Kong either...

Stating unsubstantiated verbose dribble in no way is a credible response to any documented news item, so forgive me if I total disregard your post with the distain it deserves.