Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: Thailand

[webfact]

Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- On-going protests have caused the number of foreign tourist to drop by 300,000 so far, the permanent secretary for Tourism and Sports said Wednesday.

Suwat Sitthilor, the permanent secretary, said the drop of foreign tourists had caused the country to lose about Bt16 billion in what it should have received from the foreign tourists.

The damage would be higher if the protests continued until the end of next month, Suwat said.


-- The Nation 2013-11-27

[crumpled]

I'm still coming!!

[bigbamboo]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

[Gsxrnz]

I just realised that I'm not sure if the Thais use the US or UK standard in defining a billion. Is it 10⁹ or 10¹² ??

Anyway, dividing the 16 billion baht into the 300,000 lost tourists, it works out to be circa 53,000 baht per tourist on the US scale, or 5.3M Baht on the UK scale. It's a pretty good guess they use the US scale on that basis.

So the government is assuming that each tourist spends 53k Baht on their visit here on average. I guess that seems about right for a 10 day holiday.

So much for the two week millionaires - they're obviously overstating their financial position!!

[davehowden]

15 November: ATTA says protest not yet affect tourism

27 November: Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary

Come on chaps, get your story straight.

[thailiketoo]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

[A1Str8]

No worries. Quality Chinese tourists are always an option.

[jaltsc]

"On-going protests have caused the number of foreign tourist to drop by 300,000 so far, the permanent secretary for Tourism and Sports said Wednesday."

I wish they would make up their minds. One day the report is that tourism is up and continues to grow. The next day it drops by 300,000. Makes one wonder if TAT and T&S just make up these figures to suit their agenda

[rubl]

Well, didn't PM Yingluck tell the TAT to concentrate on quality tourists rather than simple numbers? Anyone spending only 53,000 Baht on a one/two weeks holiday here obviously doesn't fall in the category of 'quality tourists'.

[thailiketoo]

"On-going protests have caused the number of foreign tourist to drop by 300,000 so far, the permanent secretary for Tourism and Sports said Wednesday."

I wish they would make up their minds. One day the report is that tourism is up and continues to grow. The next day it drops by 300,000. Makes one wonder if TAT and T&S just make up these figures to suit their agenda

The government agenda is anti government riots to destroy tourism and business? Hmmmm.

[thailiketoo]

Well, didn't PM Yingluck tell the TAT to concentrate on quality tourists rather than simple numbers? Anyone spending only 53,000 Baht on a one/two weeks holiday here obviously doesn't fall in the category of 'quality tourists'.

Your point is?

[rubl]

No harm done

Well, didn't PM Yingluck tell the TAT to concentrate on quality tourists rather than simple numbers? Anyone spending only 53,000 Baht on a one/two weeks holiday here obviously doesn't fall in the category of 'quality tourists'.

Your point is?

[monkeycountry]

First of all, it is just a number the PTP government made up, they have no factual numbers to back up their statement.

Secondly, even if it was true, then big losses is usually not a concern for the PTP government, who is currently losing a similar amount of tax payer money each month on the rice scam alone. So I do not know why they are suddenly concerned about losses in the tourism industry?

[Songhua]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

[Ned]

A nuclear bomb or bubonic plague will not keep the sex tourists away. The Chinese might get a bit jittery over the prospect of civil unrest. The Russian tour companies have already warned they might redirect tourists. I'm waiting for the bombs to start going off in Bangkok.

[h90]

15 November: ATTA says protest not yet affect tourism

27 November: Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary

Come on chaps, get your story straight.

So I guess in this 12 days not a single tourist came.

[thailiketoo]

No harm done

The loss of 300,000 tourists is, "no harm done?"

[ratcatcher]

Well, didn't PM Yingluck tell the TAT to concentrate on quality tourists rather than simple numbers? Anyone spending only 53,000 Baht on a one/two weeks holiday here obviously doesn't fall in the category of 'quality tourists'.

Your point is?

His point is well taken.

[Thai at Heart]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

Edited November 27, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[monkeycountry]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

What makes you think anyone knows the correct number? Does it not strike you as odd that the government is unable to calculate rice losses, even after all this time, but suddenly manage to calculate tourism losses within days? A loss that btw is much harder to calculate, as it involves many more parameters than the rice scam.

Could it be that they do not want to calculate the rice loss, as they are to blame for the loss, but that they are very eager, and apparently capable of calculating the tourism loss due to protests, as they can blame the opposition for that?

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[winstonc]

hope it continues to fall every little helps the cause..more bad news by the hour it seems ..well atleast the racist thais will be happy to see less win,win then..

[thailiketoo]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

What makes you think anyone knows the correct number? Does it not strike you as odd that the government is unable to calculate rice losses, even after all this time, but suddenly manage to calculate tourism losses within days? A loss that btw is much harder to calculate, as it involves many more parameters than the rice scam.

Could it be that they do not want to calculate the rice loss, as they are to blame for the loss, but that they are very eager, and apparently capable of calculating the tourism loss due to protests, as they can blame the opposition for that?

There is a correct number. But you are saying any number the Thais come up with will be wrong. Rice has nothing to do with it. My question was, how do you know the correct number. If you know that the Thai number is wrong you must logically know what the correct number is. Or am I correct in assuming you think anything the Thais do is wrong?

[thailiketoo]

hope it continues to fall every little helps the cause..more bad news by the hour it seems ..well atleast the racist thais will be happy to see less win,win then..

You should be ashamed of yourself trying to convert a thread about loss of tourism into a Thai racist rant.

[monkeycountry]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

What makes you think anyone knows the correct number? Does it not strike you as odd that the government is unable to calculate rice losses, even after all this time, but suddenly manage to calculate tourism losses within days? A loss that btw is much harder to calculate, as it involves many more parameters than the rice scam.

Could it be that they do not want to calculate the rice loss, as they are to blame for the loss, but that they are very eager, and apparently capable of calculating the tourism loss due to protests, as they can blame the opposition for that?

There is a correct number. But you are saying any number the Thais come up with will be wrong. Rice has nothing to do with it. My question was, how do you know the correct number. If you know that the Thai number is wrong you must logically know what the correct number is. Or am I correct in assuming you think anything the Thais do is wrong?

You are correct in assuming that I think Thai logic is very different from actual logic.

To continue your analogy. You are saying that if I know that a given number is wrong, then I must logically know the right number. This has nothing to do with actual logic, but sounds about right for Thai logic. To help you understand that there is no actual logic in your statement, have a look at the following examples.

I know the sun is not 1 meter in diameter. However, it does not mean I know the actual diameter.

I know you are not 800 years old. However, it does not mean I know how old you actually are.

I know there is not a billion baht on my bank account. However, it does not mean I know how much there is on my bank account.

I know there is not 100 million tourists (or tourist cancellations) in Thailand this year. It does not mean I know how many tourists (or tourist cancellations) there is.

I can keep going, but I'm sure you get the point

[thailiketoo]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

Edited November 27, 2013 by thailiketoo

[monkeycountry]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[SolarGolf]

Number of cancellations we've had: 0

I think he may be picking numbers out his arse there...

[thailiketoo]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

[Gsxrnz]

The numbers of arrivals and departures at international airports are known and (arguably) finite. The system is established and computerised and probably rivals any other system in use at most international airports.

Most countries (and I believe Thailand is no different) compare the number of foreign arrivals and departures at international airports over a defined period, with those numbers for the same period/s in prior years, probably using a weighted average.

Apply an algorithm for projected growth over prior years (both actual and forecasted, depending on the timeframe being measured), and that will drop out a calculated loss/gain from prior years actuals and current year projected.

Simple mathematics really. The numbers are relatively easy to calculate. Most countries are able to accurately produce this data and net migration gain/loss is a major indicator for financial and social policy decision making.

The political benefits of saying there are 300,000 lost tourists versus zero lost tourists is however, another question.

[thailiketoo]

The numbers of arrivals and departures at international airports are known and (arguably) finite. The system is established and computerised and probably rivals any other system in use at most international airports.

Most countries (and I believe Thailand is no different) compare the number of foreign arrivals and departures at international airports over a defined period, with those numbers for the same period/s in prior years, probably using a weighted average.

Apply an algorithm for projected growth over prior years (both actual and forecasted, depending on the timeframe being measured), and that will drop out a calculated loss/gain from prior years actuals and current year projected.

Simple mathematics really. The numbers are relatively easy to calculate. Most countries are able to accurately produce this data and net migration gain/loss is a major indicator for financial and social policy decision making.

The political benefits of saying there are 300,000 lost tourists versus zero lost tourists is however, another question.

One could say 100,000 or 200,000 whatever it is still very damaging to the Thai economy. The folks in this thread are trying to bury that fact. For what reason I don't know? Same reason as they forget about which side closed the airport causing billions in damage.