Will the Generals Intervene Again in Thailand?

[webfact]

Will the Generals Intervene Again in Thailand?
By Bruce Einhorn

BANGKOK: -- Thai police are trying a new tactic to deal with anti-government protesters in Bangkok. On Monday they fired tear gas at protestors, but today they removed barriers in front of police headquarters, Bloomberg News reports, in a bid to defuse tensions.

The bad news is the anti-government forces seem eager for Thailand’s security forces to take sides in the conflict—no small thing in country that has had nine military coups since 1946. Suthep Thaugsuban, the protest leader who was deputy prime minister under the previous government, has called on police to support the movement to depose the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of exiled former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Pimpaka Nichgaroon, head of research for Thanachart Securities in Bangkok, warns that the current unrest could end as it often does in Thailand, with the generals intervening. Chances of a military coup are now 50-50, according to Pimpaka. The anti-Yingluck forces “want some kind of national unity government to help reform the political system before the country has a new election,” she wrote in a report published yesterday.

Full story: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-03/will-the-generals-intervene-again-in-thailand

-- BloombergBusinessweek 2013-12-04

[Somtamnication]

Can't wait for December 6th. Oh, and Constitution Day, next Tuesday. It will be an interesting 6 days.

The generals will not allow this to go on too much longer. Their allegiance is not towards a "democracy" that wants an unelected people's council. I would have thought the red shirts would want that, since some of their older leaders were maoists (Chavalit).

[millwall_fan]

The trouble is, what do the 'Generals' do if they do take over? They made a complete mess of governing the country last time and in the process galvanised the Red Shirt movement. For Prayuth it would be a poisoned chalice.

[ChrisY1]

Unfortunately for Thailand, the generals are certainly able to mount a coup...no doubt about that....but as mentioned above, they have absolutely no idea how to run a country....they have trouble managing their own forces with any form of expertise.

Where else in the world, in the modern era and outside communist countries, does the military machine get to manage their own massive budgets....blimps, bomb scanners, etc and so many other useless projests that have reeked of fraud and overspending for ages.....manage a country in this day and age.....never could and never will be able to!

[Thai at Heart]

Unfortunately for Thailand, the generals are certainly able to mount a coup...no doubt about that....but as mentioned above, they have absolutely no idea how to run a country....they have trouble managing their own forces with any form of expertise.

Where else in the world, in the modern era and outside communist countries, does the military machine get to manage their own massive budgets....blimps, bomb scanners, etc and so many other useless projests that have reeked of fraud and overspending for ages.....manage a country in this day and age.....never could and never will be able to!

I don't think they would make such a bad fist of running the country as last time. In fact for all the muck ups, the place ran ok. GDP was ok, the sun shone. The world turned.

The reds festered, the yellows relaxed, the dems screwed up and here we are.

[hellodolly]

Unfortunately for Thailand, the generals are certainly able to mount a coup...no doubt about that....but as mentioned above, they have absolutely no idea how to run a country....they have trouble managing their own forces with any form of expertise.

Where else in the world, in the modern era and outside communist countries, does the military machine get to manage their own massive budgets....blimps, bomb scanners, etc and so many other useless projests that have reeked of fraud and overspending for ages.....manage a country in this day and age.....never could and never will be able to!

Well the way I read it is if they were to take over with their uneptitude we would see no change in the government,

They learned their lesson well if they were to take over there would be no opposition to a free democracy when they left.

[kamahele]

I certainly hope not. My wish would be that any role the military would take would be to keep the people safe and not to overthrow the government. I don't have a horse in this race. I am not a Thai citizen and don't have love or support for any of their politicians, but this government was elected and should be overthrown through the ballot box. People need to stop trying to govern Thailand through mob rule and coups and grow up.

[Spalpeen]

Of course the army should intervene. They should support the democratically elected government of Thailand and clear the anti democratic mob from the streets.

[harrry]

Not sure how much change any change of Government here makes. The public service seems to continue to function on its own with its mixture of extrememly dedicated staff and a feew political no hopers. Real work is done by the staff and they leave the Pollies to get on with their hot air and outlandish ideas outside.

The longer I am here the more I am impressed with the normal running of public functions....of course budget factors such as pollies not allowing train fares to be increased for many years do hamper their work.

[Emptyset]

Can't wait for December 6th. Oh, and Constitution Day, next Tuesday. It will be an interesting 6 days.

The generals will not allow this to go on too much longer. Their allegiance is not towards a "democracy" that wants an unelected people's council. I would have thought the red shirts would want that, since some of their older leaders were maoists (Chavalit).

Chavalit was neither a Maoist nor a red shirt leader. I think he'd take objection to that. lol. That said, he was one of those responsible for bringing communists in from the maquis via negotiation and amnesty. He was also apparently influenced by a group of relatively left-wing people during his time as army chief, though not too much of that was seen during his political career.

[Emptyset]

The trouble is, what do the 'Generals' do if they do take over? They made a complete mess of governing the country last time and in the process galvanised the Red Shirt movement. For Prayuth it would be a poisoned chalice.

Yeah. And I think Prayuth knows that. Only way I can see this People's Council thing happening is if they cut a deal with Thaksin, possibly involving amnesty. But that won't necessarily stop red shirts from acting independently against any undemocratic take-over. The whole thing is highly implausible.

[MILT]

Unfortunately for Thailand, the generals are certainly able to mount a coup...no doubt about that....but as mentioned above, they have absolutely no idea how to run a country....they have trouble managing their own forces with any form of expertise.

Where else in the world, in the modern era and outside communist countries, does the military machine get to manage their own massive budgets....blimps, bomb scanners, etc and so many other useless projests that have reeked of fraud and overspending for ages.....manage a country in this day and age.....never could and never will be able to!

I don't think they would make such a bad fist of running the country as last time. In fact for all the muck ups, the place ran ok. GDP was ok, the sun shone. The world turned.

The reds festered, the yellows relaxed, the dems screwed up and here we are.

Said perfectly!

[Bakseeda]

I certainly hope not. My wish would be that any role the military would take would be to keep the people safe and not to overthrow the government. I don't have a horse in this race. I am not a Thai citizen and don't have love or support for any of their politicians, but this government was elected and should be overthrown through the ballot box. People need to stop trying to govern Thailand through mob rule and coups and grow up.

They certainly were elected by a bought selection of this country, on false promises and out and out lies. Then this elected government attempted to push new laws through parliament just to help their leader return from his self imposed exile to help his family, friends and cronies spend, as they liked, the 2.2 trillion baht loan that they have also bulldozed through the house. Thank God a section of the Thai peoples had the guts to take to the streets and call a halt to this massive abuse of power. And......And...the tablets DON'T work ..

[Colabamumbai]

Unfortunately for Thailand, the generals are certainly able to mount a coup...no doubt about that....but as mentioned above, they have absolutely no idea how to run a country....they have trouble managing their own forces with any form of expertise.

Where else in the world, in the modern era and outside communist countries, does the military machine get to manage their own massive budgets....blimps, bomb scanners, etc and so many other useless projests that have reeked of fraud and overspending for ages.....manage a country in this day and age.....never could and never will be able to!

I don't think they would make such a bad fist of running the country as last time. In fact for all the muck ups, the place ran ok. GDP was ok, the sun shone. The world turned.

The reds festered, the yellows relaxed, the dems screwed up and here we are.

And not so many trains went off the tracks.

[David Mault]

I agree with you Bakseeda. This is not a truly honest elected government. The only reason they are in power is because they bought their way into it. Taksin must have spent Millions if not Billions of Baht to get in knowing that he and his cronies would be able to take more than double what ever they paid out.

[Nickymaster]

Yes they will because they are forced to by this self serving, corrupt and lying government.

[Torrens54]

Funny thing, but I tend to think as a guest in this country, I should keep my nose out of Thai politics.

I have had many a verbal dust-up with Premiers and Prime Ministers in my own country and as a journalist, was at times accused by both sides of the political fence, of "being in the pocket" of the other one. (Simply proved my lack of bias in reporting the facts.) But if you are a guest in someone's home, would you start telling them all the things you think they are doing wrong? Would you tell them how hopeless you think they are at managing their family and finances?

I think not!

So why do so many Farang (and no I'm not offended by that term unless it is uttered as an intended insult) persist in trying to tell the Thai people how to run their country. Didn't we come here, at least in part, because we didn't like some aspects of how our homeland was being run?

[mikemac]

A lot of things have surprised me in the eight years since I first arrived in Thailand. Far too many to list here. But the one that stands out the most, is that there are so many foreigners here who support the Thaksin regime. I have always thought that either they have black hearts, are village idiots, or are forum trolls.

Funny thing is when I am out and about in Chiang Mai I run into lots of expats and I never seem to encounter PTP supporters, only strike them on forums like this.

I wonder..............................................................

[DGIE]

I want to see if the number of protesters will increase or decrease as others may have realized that

they need to do a living

[apetley]

Funny thing, but I tend to think as a guest in this country, I should keep my nose out of Thai politics.

 

I have had many a verbal dust-up with Premiers and Prime Ministers in my own country and as a journalist, was at times accused by both sides of the political fence, of "being in the pocket" of the other one. (Simply proved my lack of bias in reporting the facts.) But if you are a guest in someone's home, would you start telling them all the things you think they are doing wrong? Would you tell them how hopeless you think they are at managing their family and finances?

 

I think not!

 

So why do so many Farang (and no I'm not offended by that term unless it is uttered as an intended insult) persist in trying to tell the Thai people how to run their country. Didn't we come here, at least in part, because we didn't like some aspects of how our homeland was being run?

 

You mean we're not allowed to talk about corruption? Even when Thais themselves recognise it is the most corrosive problem in the country. If I see something that can be improved I will say so. If I see someone doing something that is obviously wrong I will say so. To do otherwise is being irresponsible.

To finish with I am not a guest, had to apply for my visa and pay taxes so will continue to speak my mind.

[bigbamboo]

Funny thing, but I tend to think as a guest in this country, I should keep my nose out of Thai politics.

I have had many a verbal dust-up with Premiers and Prime Ministers in my own country and as a journalist, was at times accused by both sides of the political fence, of "being in the pocket" of the other one. (Simply proved my lack of bias in reporting the facts.) But if you are a guest in someone's home, would you start telling them all the things you think they are doing wrong? Would you tell them how hopeless you think they are at managing their family and finances?

I think not!

So why do so many Farang (and no I'm not offended by that term unless it is uttered as an intended insult) persist in trying to tell the Thai people how to run their country. Didn't we come here, at least in part, because we didn't like some aspects of how our homeland was being run?

You mean we're not allowed to talk about corruption? Even when Thais themselves recognise it is the most corrosive problem in the country. If I see something that can be improved I will say so. If I see someone doing something that is obviously wrong I will say so. To do otherwise is being irresponsible.

To finish with I am not a guest, had to apply for my visa and pay taxes so will continue to speak my mind.

If you're one of the farang who spend their time propping up bars and eyeing up the girls there then I would agree with your sentiments.

However many of us are stakeholders here with wives and children, businesses etc. and not only contribute to their local economies but also take a keen interest in the welfare of our families and friends.

We want the best for them and for Thailand. Unfortunately in many countries, including here, too many politicians don't.

[Jean Pierre Jacquot]

It always amazes me that on this forum many people just sit behind the argument that the present government has been elected and therefore should stay on. Do you guys really believe that an elected government can do everything just because they have been initially elected? Democracy means that an elected government still has to listen to the views of their population.

With the hard stand of Thaksin against the majority of people in Thailand, it is unfortunately inevitable that the army will have to step in. This in order to prevent blood is being shed.

Most of us are against a military intervention, so me. But if it is the only option to get rid of this terrible government which is going to indebt Thailand for many years, why not. It is purely in the interest of Thailand.

[mikemac]

It always amazes me that on this forum many people just sit behind the argument that the present government has been elected and therefore should stay on. Do you guys really believe that an elected government can do everything just because they have been initially elected? Democracy means that an elected government still has to listen to the views of their population.

With the hard stand of Thaksin against the majority of people in Thailand, it is unfortunately inevitable that the army will have to step in. This in order to prevent blood is being shed.

Most of us are against a military intervention, so me. But if it is the only option to get rid of this terrible government which is going to indebt Thailand for many years, why not. It is purely in the interest of Thailand.

Good post JPJ, you made more sense than all the deluded PTP fans who troll haunt this forum combined.

......................................."Do you guys really believe that an elected government can do everything just because they have been initially elected? Democracy means that an elected government still has to listen to the views of their population."..........................................

Actually yes, a lot of these guys on this forum do believe that. It appears to them that once you are voted in, no matter how dodgy the voting process is, you can do anything you want and the rest of the political parties, and the general population for that matter can go to hell.

And when another party wins an election and takes power these poor misguided fools will be calling for their heads and will sic the redshirts on to them.

Funny thing about coups and military intervention, most of the regimes that have been ousted over the years deserved to be, for the good of the country. The Army is simply doing what the government should be doing, serving the people.

[ginjag]

Of course the army should intervene. They should support the democratically elected government of Thailand and clear the anti democratic mob from the streets.

That sounds good on paper, but what do we have left the country ravaged to the core, by a dictatorial government, and corruption reaching the lowest of the lowest, and a while ago Yingluck said she and her cronies were fighting it. and pictures of it to prove.

which mob off the streets, a lot of your MOB are there.

[Old Man River]

Of course the army should intervene. They should support the democratically elected government of Thailand and clear the anti democratic mob from the streets.

And what is the police's job? In your opinion are they supposed to sit underneath bridges and play cards?

[ginjag]

The trouble is, what do the 'Generals' do if they do take over? They made a complete mess of governing the country last time and in the process galvanised the Red Shirt movement. For Prayuth it would be a poisoned chalice.

No, your mob made a complete mess of it in BKK.