NIDA poll says trouble lies ahead of February 2 election

[webfact]

NIDA poll says trouble lies ahead of February 2 election

BANGKOK: -- The National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) says the upcoming February 2 election will not go smoothly but plagued with troubles.

The forecast of trouble ahead was a result of its survey conducted from December 17-19 on a total of 1,254 people across the country for their opinions on the upcoming February 2 election.

The poll reveals that 55.34% of people asked think the coming election will not run smoothly because it will be obstructed and derailed by protesters. But 32.70% said the election will not be affected. The rest has no comment.

On the questions of how fair and transparent the election will be if compared to previous elections, 28.79% said it will be less fair while 21.13% said it will be least fair election to date. However 28.63% said it will be fairer, and 8.29% said it will be the fairest election.

Asked about the political situation after the election, 47.21% said they believed political unrest will continue while 21.85% said conflict will widen, and 20.33% was optimistic with thought that it will improve.

On which will come first between election and national reform, 46.33% said national reform should come first, while 36.28% favored the election. Only 4.31% said both national reform and election should be carried out in parallel.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/nida-poll-says-trouble-lies-ahead-february-2-election/


-- Thai PBS 2013-12-21

[northernjohn]

Well I certainly have my suspicions of polls taken in Thailand I must admit that

"On which will come first between election and national reform, 46.33% said national reform should come first, while 36.28% favored the election. Only 4.31% said both national reform and election should be carried out in parallel."

came as a surprise to me. I realize Thailand is awaking but I did not realize they were that aware.

If the elections do go ahead the PTP will probably win but they will not have the backing they enjoyed and abused for the last 2 and 1/2 years,

If the elections are delayed to put reforms in place the PTP will probably still win but have even less power. It will take years for the red shirt supporters to be given an education and have a further understanding of what is involved in who they elect. Besides which many of the older people who were aware of the prosperity under Thaksin will slowly die off. What they never understood is that it was not Thaksin who did it. The whole world was going through s period of prosperity at that time. It was not just a Thai event.

[Nibbles48]

The poll reveals that 55.34% of people asked think the coming election will not run smoothly because it will be obstructed and derailed by protesters. But 32.70% said the election will not be affected. The rest has no comment.

The election will not run smoothly (if it ever happens at all) because it will definitely be derailed by protesters especially if the Dems boycott it, which I am hoping.

On the questions of how fair and transparent the election will be if compared to previous elections, 28.79% said it will be less fair while 21.13% said it will be least fair election to date. However 28.63% said it will be fairer, and 8.29% said it will be the fairest election.

least fair to date without reform.

Asked about the political situation after the election, 47.21% said they believed political unrest will continue while 21.85% said conflict will widen, and 20.33% was optimistic with thought that it will improve.

Conflict will widen.

On which will come first between election and national reform, 46.33% said national reform should come first, while 36.28% favored the election. Only 4.31% said both national reform and election should be carried out in parallel.

National reform must come first.

There ya go, I added my own answers. I pay tax.

[FangFerang]

NIDA poll says trouble lies ahead of February 2 election

Really? How many people were in the committee to draft this statement of august wisdom? I am glad they said it because I never would have expected it. Thanks. Great investigative journalism!

[FangFerang]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample, and it must be a random sample. If the poll was conducted by internet, the results are invalid (all Thais do not have internet). If the poll was conducted by cellphone, the sample is almost half the sample required, and is likewise invalid.

In short, how were these figures derived?

Pollsters here and abroad never show their sampling technique for a simple reason...there are lies, damn lies, and statistics (which can be easily manipulated to support any conclusion).

In short, polls are for punters. News is for newbies. And politics is for procrastinators.

[chainarong]

Regardless of what comes where or who comes first , whatever the out come , trouble lies ahead because there are people out there who are hell bent on causing trouble on both sides , if the situation dose not suit them , they will raise their ugly heads, Thailand will always, for decades to come have upheavals, and the contributing facture is none other than Mr Thaskin Shinawatra who started the ball rolling back in 2006, to you sir Thailand must be Thank-full and great-full

[Baerboxer]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample, and it must be a random sample. If the poll was conducted by internet, the results are invalid (all Thais do not have internet). If the poll was conducted by cellphone, the sample is almost half the sample required, and is likewise invalid.

In short, how were these figures derived?

Pollsters here and abroad never show their sampling technique for a simple reason...there are lies, dam_n lies, and statistics (which can be easily manipulated to support any conclusion).

In short, polls are for punters. News is for newbies. And politics is for procrastinators.

Nonsense. You need to read up on sample size determination and sample selection methodologies.

[Bpuumike]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample, and it must be a random sample. If the poll was conducted by internet, the results are invalid (all Thais do not have internet). If the poll was conducted by cellphone, the sample is almost half the sample required, and is likewise invalid.

In short, how were these figures derived?

Pollsters here and abroad never show their sampling technique for a simple reason...there are lies, dam_n lies, and statistics (which can be easily manipulated to support any conclusion).

In short, polls are for punters. News is for newbies. And politics is for procrastinators.

Very true. In no way are 1254 people (a very strange number) a representative sample in a country of what, some 60 million.

[Costas2008]

As....we don't know!!!!!

[indyuk]

Well I certainly have my suspicions of polls taken in Thailand I must admit that

"On which will come first between election and national reform, 46.33% said national reform should come first, while 36.28% favored the election. Only 4.31% said both national reform and election should be carried out in parallel."

came as a surprise to me. I realize Thailand is awaking but I did not realize they were that aware.

If the elections do go ahead the PTP will probably win but they will not have the backing they enjoyed and abused for the last 2 and 1/2 years,

If the elections are delayed to put reforms in place the PTP will probably still win but have even less power. It will take years for the red shirt supporters to be given an education and have a further understanding of what is involved in who they elect. Besides which many of the older people who were aware of the prosperity under Thaksin will slowly die off. What they never understood is that it was not Thaksin who did it. The whole world was going through s period of prosperity at that time. It was not just a Thai event.

Just how deep in the sand do you intend to bury your head John?

[White Tiger]

Well I certainly have my suspicions of polls taken in Thailand I must admit that....

Me too

[White Tiger]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample...

You've made that bit up haven't you. Another poster recommended you do some reading on this. You could do worse than to start here as this is a beginners guide to choosing sample sizes:

http://www.tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/

Fully agree that a sample needs to be random.

In the UK there is a national watchdog that oversees polls. It's called the British Polling Council. Amongst other things it ensures standards of disclosure that provide consumers of survey results that enter the public domain the confidence to judge the reliability and validity of the results. You can read about the watchdog here:

http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/

All that said I fully agree with your sentiments that this particular survey probably isn't worth the paper it's written on. It was carried out in Thailand, and it's about politics, that tells me all I need to know.

[Ulic]

Always be leery of polls unless you know the questions and the way they were phrased. That said I do think

this pole basically states the obvious. There will be trouble with demonstrations and disruptions until the

election, and after as well when Suthep does not win.

[harrry]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample...

You've made that bit up haven't you. Another poster recommended you do some reading on this. You could do worse than to start here as this is a beginners guide to choosing sample sizes:

http://www.tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/

Fully agree that a sample needs to be random.

In the UK there is a national watchdog that oversees polls. It's called the British Polling Council. Amongst other things it ensures standards of disclosure that provide consumers of survey results that enter the public domain the confidence to judge the reliability and validity of the results. You can read about the watchdog here:

http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/

All that said I fully agree with your sentiments that this particular survey probably isn't worth the paper it's written on. It was carried out in Thailand, and it's about politics, that tells me all I need to know.

http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4

may help with this too.

I do not know where you got the definitive 2000 number. Other factors do also apply.

[northernjohn]

Well I certainly have my suspicions of polls taken in Thailand I must admit that

"On which will come first between election and national reform, 46.33% said national reform should come first, while 36.28% favored the election. Only 4.31% said both national reform and election should be carried out in parallel."

came as a surprise to me. I realize Thailand is awaking but I did not realize they were that aware.

If the elections do go ahead the PTP will probably win but they will not have the backing they enjoyed and abused for the last 2 and 1/2 years,

If the elections are delayed to put reforms in place the PTP will probably still win but have even less power. It will take years for the red shirt supporters to be given an education and have a further understanding of what is involved in who they elect. Besides which many of the older people who were aware of the prosperity under Thaksin will slowly die off. What they never understood is that it was not Thaksin who did it. The whole world was going through s period of prosperity at that time. It was not just a Thai event.

Just how deep in the sand do you intend to bury your head John?

Was there some thing in particular you disagreed with.

If so spit it out.

You have as much right as I do to post your opinion.

[Anon999]

According to Social Science, any poll needs to have at least 2000 respondents to be a good sample, and it must be a random sample. If the poll was conducted by internet, the results are invalid (all Thais do not have internet). If the poll was conducted by cellphone, the sample is almost half the sample required, and is likewise invalid.

In short, how were these figures derived?

Pollsters here and abroad never show their sampling technique for a simple reason...there are lies, dam_n lies, and statistics (which can be easily manipulated to support any conclusion).

In short, polls are for punters. News is for newbies. And politics is for procrastinators.

Polls in the UK often use a sample of less that 2,000 people.

[Greer]

I think the overall sentiment here seems to be a resounding "Duh!"...