GBP

[rayongchelsea]

If sterling goes to 1.70 (ish) and the baht to 34/35, not unreasonable given the trend,60 baht at the top end of the range is a reasonable possibility..57 is now a fair shout..especially in q1.

Look how quick we broke 50..I remember sterling moving very quickly into the 60's before and moving down even quicker later..the window of opportunity may not be long..

Anyway that's what I am waiting for, if it goes down then so be it..

[chiang mai]

I spotted this on another site, 2014 forecasts, just for fun:

GDP +3.4%
HPI +7.0%
Unemployment 5.5%
Gold $1000
Pound/Dollar $1.70
CPI +2.5%
FTSE 100 7500
Base Rate 1.0%

Some of the numbers don't look unreasonable but I think the GDP figure is far too high and the unemployment number too low, but that's just me, you may see things differently.

[onewhowalkswithbuffalo]

I spotted this on another site, 2014 forecasts, just for fun:

GDP +3.4%

HPI +7.0%

Unemployment 5.5%

Gold $1000

Pound/Dollar $1.70

CPI +2.5%

FTSE 100 7500

Base Rate 1.0%

Some of the numbers don't look unreasonable but I think the GDP figure is far too high and the unemployment number too low, but that's just me, you may see things differently.

Nice spot

[chiang mai]

I suppose to keep things balanced we should offer up similar for the Thai side! Anyone, end 2014?

GDP - ?
HPI - N/A
Unemployment N/A
Gold - N/A
Dollar/THB - ?
CPI (Core inflation) - ?
SET - ?
Base Rate - ?

[onewhowalkswithbuffalo]

I suppose to keep things balanced we should offer up similar for the Thai side! Anyone, end 2014?

GDP - ?

HPI - N/A

Unemployment N/A

Gold - N/A

Dollar/THB - ?

CPI (Core inflation) - ?

SET - ?

Base Rate - ?

Na, we might be thrown in jail for crimes against the state.

[alfieconn]

4 - if (US) QE tapering is to continue along the lines imagined (and that's far from certain), that means a stronger USD, in that event I would look for GBP to be weaker against USD and for that to benefit the THB side of GBP/THB.

1. The US tapering was announced this week so why did GBP / USD go higher ?

2. So a stronger Dollar means a weaker pound does it ? or did you mean a stronger dollar means GBP / USD will go lower ?

3. If the markets think the Dollar will strengthen, it doesn't necesary mean that they will buy Dollars against the pound especially if they see sterling also strengthening !

Iv'e told you before, look what sterling is doing and not the US economy when determining what the GBP / THB is going to do !

Are you American by the way as you continually talk down sterling and talk up the dollar ?

[chiang mai]

4 - if (US) QE tapering is to continue along the lines imagined (and that's far from certain), that means a stronger USD, in that event I would look for GBP to be weaker against USD and for that to benefit the THB side of GBP/THB.

1. The US tapering was announced this week so why did GBP / USD go higher ?

2. So a stronger Dollar means a weaker pound does it ? or did you mean a stronger dollar means GBP / USD will go lower ?

3. If the markets think the Dollar will strengthen, it doesn't necesary mean that they will buy Dollars against the pound especially if they see sterling also strengthening !

Iv'e told you before, look what sterling is doing and not the US economy when determining what the GBP / THB is going to do !

Are you American by the way as you continually talk down sterling and talk up the dollar ?

1. Us tapering news was minimal, 10 bill only, the economic news out of the UK was of greater significance pointing to stronger growth.

2. the latter, of course,

No I'm a Brit. and it's not a case of talking down the one or the other, that's your interpretation, it's a matter of having a comparative view which changes over time. My long term view however remains that the US is far better positioned than the UK to achieve sustainable economic growth, it has all the necessary elements whereas the UK has very few and is therefore poorly positioned. The UK's current growth is based on consumer demand and real estate sales, that's the core and the population is being squeezed, as much as I would like to be able to say otherwise, that's not a sustainable strategy and the recent record deficit is proof of that.

[MJP]

Gilt yields at highest since 2011 as economic outlook improves

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/27/uk-britain-markets-gilts-idUKBRE9BQ07M20131227

[chiang mai]

To aid the GBP/THB comparison, here's one economists view of global growth in 2014, emerging markets vs UK vs the world:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/10540402/Liam-Halligan-The-worrying-threats-that-stalk-global-growth.html

I particularly liked the opening para:

"Economists aren’t very popular. Dismal scientists, after all, are the kind of experts who don’t know what they’re talking about but make you feel as if that’s your fault".

And a second article that supports earlier statements about when interest rates might rise and the impact of doing that:

"PIMCO also believes the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until 2016, as Britain’s fragile consumer confidence forces it to maintain its loose monetary policy stance for years to come.

“The Bank has made it very clear that it will only raise rates when the economy is capable of withstanding it. It is not at all clear the economy is going to be capable of [this] for another couple of years,” said Mr Amey.

He said the Bank would be “mad” to hike rates pre-emptively, and would probably wait for real wages to increase first. “[by raising rates] you are tightening the purse strings of an already stretched consumer,” he said. “The thing you don’t want to do as a central banker is pre-emptively tighten policy and get it wrong.

“At the moment you’ve got earnings growth at 1pc, and inflation at 2pc. So people’s purchasing power is being eroded. If you go and hike rates on top, it will squeeze the consumer even more..”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10540866/Eurozone-sleepwalking-into-a-decades-long-deflation-trap.html

Edited December 29, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Just wondering how the "perfect storm" is coming along, are we there yet?