PoisonedinBKK Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 As we all know Jan. 13th is going to be "D-day" in BKK, how much of an impact will it have on the FX? I've seen the THB getting weaker against the euro since April 2013. In 9 months time the difference has grown to 7 THB on the euro. Wait until things get out of hand and hope the baht will plummet further (but expecting it will rise again within 1 year) or send a large amount as soon as possible? The xe.com currency history THB vs euro during the 2010 riots shows no drop in valuation, in contrary... the THB grew stronger or the euro was having a crisis. I'm completely illiterate on forextrading, stocks etc. so i hope to hear from some of the more experienced members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maidee Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Dont bring to thailand more than you want to lose as it will be impossible to send it back home afterwards specially your profits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 So what you have learned is that in 2010 the baht was relatively stable and in 2013 it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estrada Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 (edited) Time to buy good quality stocks such as Advance Info Services, AIT, BTS. Going on past history of political unrest, coups and floods. If you buy now and hold for 3 months, you can make 20-30% upside plus these stocks pay dividends of 7-10%. In dollar terms the FX rate forecast as of today is B32/US$ by October 2014, against the current B33, a 3% upside. The EURO could also give you 3-4% FX gain. Most foreign investment funds are at the mercy of sudden changes in FX rates. That is why the Thai SET crashed due to the political unrest which forces foreign funds to sell their equities and convert to US Dollars/ Pounds/EUROs. Once the dust settles they buy back at lower prices. The money inflows cause the Baht to appreciate at the same time so they make money on the increase in value of the shares and the improvement in the exchange rate. If you are new to FX don't invest directly in currencies, invest in equities and repatriate your money when the exchange rate is attractive. Edited January 8, 2014 by Estrada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Card Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 (edited) The current troubles in Thailand are only 1 factor leading to the demise of the baht. Another major factor, if not the most important) is the tapering of quantitative easing in the US. This leads to increased yields from US government bonds so investment is moving out of asia (where it went after 2008) back into the US. Another factor is the improved economies of the west - Europe as well as USA, leading to the same thing. Another factor is the huge Thai government debt (rice pledging scheme, first car (since that was abolished the car manufacturers in Thailand are really struggling and many Thais who bought first time didn't realise how much cars cost to run, rather than buy, either reneged on their debt or can't sell their second hand cars as there is a glut), major infrastructures) and personal debt of Thais (cars, homes/condos all on bank credit). The economy is way out of kilter regarding earnings (GDP) and personal and government debt. Western investors see this as a danger signal and don't want to be around when the bubble bursts. The troubles don't help (or do depending on your point of view) but solving the political situatuion won't stop the baht from dropping. It's what's called a perfect storm when all these factors come along at the same time! personally I am waiting longer - I am buying a condo and a car soon and hope to get the car free from the increased value of the pound against the baht! For me, any value of the pound above 50 baht is a profit. Edited January 8, 2014 by Card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifeincnx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Bought a position in THD at $58 a share. It's a US-based exchange traded fund which tracks the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Thai-only equities, a bit over weighted in financial services. I sold all at $93+ in June 2013. Today, it's trading at $62, approaching a two-year low. Once the dust settles (if), I'll buy back in.But, as the saying goes, "Never invest money you can't afford to lose." http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=THD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkk_mike Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think the current slide in the baht has more to do with the costs of the rice pledging scheme and the mere possibility of the monster infrastructure loan, added to the possible end of Quantitative Easing raising the value of the dollar and pound. i.e. The rioting in 2010 had virtually no impact on the exchange rate, but the government's finances were in a better state then. After all the baht was already dropping well before the current round of protests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifeincnx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Plummeting tourism, about 6% of the Thai GDP, and foreign investment pulling out due to the current political unrest, pure and simple, have had the greatest short term impact IMHO. The SET was cresting 1650 back in May, 2013, then dropped to around 1500 by October. Now it now averaging 1270 and falling. So it's quite a stretch to tie this huge nose dive to the rice pledge or to blame it all on the tapering of QE. The plummet in the Thai SET has taken place within two months so it is directly tied to the attempted ousting of the current PM and Bangkok rallies, ad nauseam, to boycott the election. Add to that over fifty key nations and the United Nations as a body are in support the February election. In other words, political gridlock; for foreign investors that means take the money and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HerbalEd Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It is not as simple as "there's political trouble in Thailand and thus the baht weakens. If it were, I'd be a billionaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomSand Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 (edited) Buy the rumour / Sell the news. Edited January 8, 2014 by RandomSand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozyjon Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I just finished watching a program on insider trading in Germany, didn't see the beginning just the last half but what one guy said that stuck in my brain was a quote, "the real losers weren't the traders but the investors that lost it all, the traders got their money and left the small guy with nothing" i'll keep my money in the bank, i won't win big but i wont make another fat guy rich with my money either. The moral, don't play games you don't know the rules to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PattayaPhom Posted January 8, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted January 8, 2014 Dont bring to thailand more than you want to lose as it will be impossible to send it back home afterwards specially your profits Absolute rubbish. Normal tripe trotted out by those that dont have two happenies to rub together. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ebenezer Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The current troubles in Thailand are only 1 factor leading to the demise of the baht. Another major factor, if not the most important) is the tapering of quantitative easing in the US. This leads to increased yields from US government bonds so investment is moving out of asia (where it went after 2008) back into the US. Another factor is the improved economies of the west - Europe as well as USA, leading to the same thing. Another factor is the huge Thai government debt (rice pledging scheme, first car (since that was abolished the car manufacturers in Thailand are really struggling and many Thais who bought first time didn't realise how much cars cost to run, rather than buy, either reneged on their debt or can't sell their second hand cars as there is a glut), major infrastructures) and personal debt of Thais (cars, homes/condos all on bank credit). The economy is way out of kilter regarding earnings (GDP) and personal and government debt. Western investors see this as a danger signal and don't want to be around when the bubble bursts. The troubles don't help (or do depending on your point of view) but solving the political situatuion won't stop the baht from dropping. It's what's called a perfect storm when all these factors come along at the same time! personally I am waiting longer - I am buying a condo and a car soon and hope to get the car free from the increased value of the pound against the baht! For me, any value of the pound above 50 baht is a profit. I entirely agree with your view Card. FX trading is very complex and depends on many factors. It is impossible to predict with any certainty but my opinion, for what it is worth, is that in the short term the USD, GBP and EUR will all increase against the baht. There are factors affecting the USD in particular that I think will cause it to rise in the medium term in its own right so I think buying USD/THB is probably the best trade. Rates are very volatile though so this will not be a smooth change. There are some interesting articles about the Thai economy in Forbes.com if you want to study about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight8 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 One thing you need to understand in the financial world.. If its too good to be true.... but I understand your logic behind it, but so do they!! The big boys can make it turn against you in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 One thing you need to understand in the financial world.. If its too good to be true.... but I understand your logic behind it, but so do they!! The big boys can make it turn against you in an instant. 'Little boys' should keep their money in the post office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdanielmcev Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Learning forex is like learning a new language. You need to learn what each country reacts to in order to see where each currency is headed. The baht may(?) fall (dollar rise) well into next month. Also, do you want to do this long- or short-term? I stick to USD-JPY myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWorldwide Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Learning forex is like learning a new language. You need to learn what each country reacts to in order to see where each currency is headed. The baht may(?) fall (dollar rise) well into next month. Also, do you want to do this long- or short-term? I stick to USD-JPY myself. I could see this becoming just as dangerous an obsession as the bars - if anything, it could empty my bank account even more quickly - but I'm 'fortunate' in that I have a few other hobbies that threaten to do that long before the money reaches the FX market http://www.piyanas.com/showroom/en/product.html?page=shop.product_details&flypage=eny_fly_default.tpl&product_id=2486&category_id=898 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasun Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The baht strengthened with the coup, it strengthened following the parliamentary overthrow, and it strengthened during the riots. So if things get really bad, it should go through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I would not buy THD now. The American ETF always freaks out when they start seeing CNN headlines about chaos in Bangkok. These protest are going to turn into a big long ordeal as they ALWAYS do... and THD will overreact as it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedtripler Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Dont bring to thailand more than you want to lose as it will be impossible to send it back home afterwards specially your profits Why? There is plenty of ways to get money out of Thailand Officially or unofficially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I just finished watching a program on insider trading in Germany, didn't see the beginning just the last half but what one guy said that stuck in my brain was a quote, "the real losers weren't the traders but the investors that lost it all, the traders got their money and left the small guy with nothing" i'll keep my money in the bank, i won't win big but i wont make another fat guy rich with my money either. The moral, don't play games you don't know the rules to. The money you deposit in a bank is loaned out at higher risk. It doesn't just sit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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