Thai Army chief orders tightened security, shed uniforms

[Thai at Heart]

The army are very split. The closest army base to Bangkok(apart from army based in Bkk) is at Sattahip (Marines), if things turn ugly they would be the first to make a move - a reliable source tells me that the man in charge there has been paid off by Thaksin, but most if not all the people under him inc the troops are ready to help the demonstrators.

Isn't that the navy?

[citizen33]

The army are very split. The closest army base to Bangkok(apart from army based in Bkk) is at Sattahip (Marines), if things turn ugly they would be the first to make a move - a reliable source tells me that the man in charge there has been paid off by Thaksin, but most if not all the people under him inc the troops are ready to help the demonstrators.

Isn't that the navy?

Indeed. And the RTA bases at Nawamindhachini and Phanatbodi Sri Uthai in Chonburi are closer. My own hunch if push came to shove is that the anti-government military would use the Eastern Tigers (Queen's Guard) as they did in 2010.

Edited January 13, 2014 by citizen33

[noitom]

Plainclothes? Not too much of a strong deterrent to violence. The idea of military presence is to show capability, uniformity and security. A thai 25 year old in shower shoes shorts and a t shirt doesn't seem to offer much of a visible show of strength.

[noitom]

Plainclothes? Not too much of a strong deterrent to violence. The idea of military presence is to show capability, uniformity and security. A thai 25 year old in shower shoes shorts and a t shirt doesn't seem to offer much of a visible show of strength.

[waza]

Rumour has it that Yingluck is actually pretty close to Prayuth and trusts him. Don't know if it's true, but makes things more complicated if so. Would also explain a few things. Then again, getting on with YL on a personal level probably won't stop Prayuth from acting against the govt if the situation seems favourable. But who knows? I don't think there will be a coup but seems no one is sure what the end game is.

Maybe Suthep doesn't actually have such a well thought out plan as he thought, if military won't intervene, the only thing he can try and do is ramp up the pressure until govt is forced to negotiate something unfavourable. They're surely not going to agree to what Suthep wants though - signing their own death warrant. So how can Suthep win without the military? It's an open question.

Suthep cannot win without the military. From my vantage point, he will need to instigate violence (using provocateurs) for the military to intervene, especially if the government (supporters) continues to show restraint. Although, that could be political suicide (if this already isn't).

My questions is that how long can this continue. And if the elections don't lead to a government being formed due to lack of enough numbers, what happens after that?

A coup would be of no advantage to Suthep as he has already won, Yingluck has dissolved the government and has no control over the treasury. The election will be void because their isn't enough registered candidates for the require MP positions and 308 PTP politicians may be disqualified. Yingluck is stalling for time and manipulating for control, her call for a round table meeting on Wednesday is to plead for concessions. The last thing they would want is for her government to resign and hand the initiative to Suthep. Consider if the election is postponed for 3 months and 308 PTP politicians are disqualified does that give the Dems the numbers to form a caretaker government? So as control is slipping from Yinglucks fingers wouldn't a coup be looking more attractive for the Thaksin proxy government? But that would take extreme violence to achieve.

Waza - The election will not be void. By-elections will be held until all seats are filled. The caretaker government continues until the next government is formed. If 308 MPs are banned, PT will surely already have a contigency plan. And since the Democrats aren't running in the election, how could they form a government after the election? Still quite a way from anyone being banned at this point. There are three stages, NACC, Senate and Court. So what if they are banned anyway? There's still no constitutional basis for the People's Council - obviously - therefore the intervention of "independent" agencies will not be enough to create one. Requires military or royal intervention per article 7, both still seem unlikely to me.

Why would a coup look more attractive to the government? How would that help them if the military sides with the protesters? If there is a coup, the military would no doubt cede power to pretty much the same people the protesters want in the Council (see some of the names Shaun Crispin mentioned), so what's the difference between the military route and the other unclear route to goal of getting this govt out? For the reasons I mention above, they're in no danger of losing control at this point UNLESS - imo - there is violence.

thecynic - well, Suthep's called for soldiers to side with the people but at the same time they've seemed ambivalent about the prospect of a coup. I still think you're right because I just can't see any other way Suthep is going to get what he wants. As for the q. about elections, as I say above, that's not as much of a problem as people assume. By-elections will take place and the parliament has 180 days to reach quorum and form a government, or a new general election must be held. It would not be easy for Suthep to block elections for 6 months, although it'd be easier if the ECT refuses to do its job and facilitate candidate registration in secure locations etc.

How long can Suthep keep this going? Good question. In Bangkok, not sure. Will be hard to maintain a shut down like this for too long, but could maintain a base in one location ala PAD in 2008. You don't need that many protesters to man these barriers, but the less there are, the easier it'll be for police to deal with them. And people will start to get more irritated the longer roads are blocked.

Blocking elections in the South, indefinitely I guess. But it gets harder to block with each by-election. In the third by-election the candidate would only require one vote to win and take his seat. As long as the ECT do their job, parliament should definitely meet quorum within the 180 days. Of course, the ECT officials might just start resigning en masse, claiming intimidation etc (think at least one guy in the South resigned claiming something like this?). That could be one way to prevent parliament meeting quorum.

Quite a long winded response Empty set, in reguards to your first point, "The election will not be void. By-elections will be held until all seats are filled."

I believe you are incorrect and rationalise it by; Firstly I would like to point out that the opposition to the election is growing and it seems unlikely that it will go ahead and more likely it will be postponed.....

"The Election Commission yesterday suggested that the government start anew the election process because of many problems that have complicated the run-up to the February 2 polls.....The EC asked the government to call for a royal decree authorising a new election date. It noted an absence of election candidates in many constituencies. The agency also pointed to concerns expressed by the Office of the Auditor-General that if the February 2 date is maintained, it could be a waste of more than Bt3 billion." http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/EC-urges-restart-of-poll-process-30224017.html

Secondly, I would like to point to the precedent of the 2006 voided election...

"Judge Ura Wangomklang said the court had decided by nine votes to five that the 2 April poll was unconstitutional.....The opposition boycotted the poll so not all the seats were filled, which meant parliament could not sit." If parliament cant sit, then how can By-elections be held?

Although I concede that Thaksin was prepared for this and employed and created other parties to fill the void he did not expect the protestors to successfully block registration as effectively as they have done. This is evident by Yinglucks cry to have registration extended. If the elections are voided PTP could loose their majority when the 308 are disqualified leaving the Dem coalition with the majority of sitting MPs and the right to form a caretaker government.

In reguards to military or royal intervention don't forget that ....."Thailand's three courts agreed to rule on the election's validity after a rare intervention by King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who described the situation as a "mess" and said any parliament with no opposition presence would be undemocratic." This statement still stands.

A coup would be more attractive to a Thaksin proxy government because if they have to loose control then at least with a coup they maintain the moral high ground and it would increase their sympathy vote. Again they can cry, "the Amart stole the peasants votes".

A coup would be undesirable for Suthep as he would be robbed of a popular uprising victory, a victory by the people over the inept, corrupt and criminal Thaksin proxy administration.

Edited January 13, 2014 by waza

[diehard60]

I don't think the red zombies dare to do anything to his daughters. He is not the guy red zombies can cope with.

Who are the "red zombies"? Do we have "yellow zombies too'?

[waza]

He looks pissed determined to counter the third hand or those that threaten his family. Well its Yinglucks (Thaksins) move now, and it sounds like the communication lines are down.

The communication lines are back open, Thaksin has issued a "no retreat" order, so its looks like a stalemate for the moment. Suthep can just keep up the pressure til Yingluck cracks or wait 3 weeks for the court and/ or EC decisions. Thaksin needs to wait Suthep out and hope for a valid election win despite, doubtful qualifications, bad publicity and bad debts dogging his election campaign. Then he could risk his new government by instituting the blanket amnesty and hoping the CC doesn't rule it unconstitutional. Or he could unleash the dogs of war and push for a coup and try a military option.

Edited January 14, 2014 by waza