Protests to slow Thai economy but no ratings downgrade: Moody's

[webfact]

Protests to slow Thai economy but no ratings downgrade: Moody's

SINGAPORE, January 16, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's political unrest could slow down the economy but the current situation does not merit a ratings downgrade, credit rating agency Moody's said Thursday.

The anti-government protests have so far been limited to the capital Bangkok and have not reached a point where they threaten the country's fiscal position, Moody's sovereign risk analyst Steffen Dyck said.

"If political instability develops to a degree that these credit fundamentals really weaken deeply we will take a rating action," he told AFP.

"Or if we will see any deviation from fiscal discipline that will result in the massive widening of fiscal deficit and the ramp up in public debt, this will trigger a negative rating action," he added.

However Moody's, which has assigned Thailand a Baa1 rating with a stable outlook, raised concerns about the impact of the protests on the country's economic growth.

Tens of thousands of opposition protesters have occupied major streets in Bangkok since Monday in an attempt to "shut down" the capital and force Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to quit.

Tourism, the government's planned infrastructure spending and overall economic growth could be hurt, said Dyck.

Moody's has slashed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Thailand in 2013 to around 3.0 percent from 3.7 percent because of the impact of the protests in the final quarter of the year.

Dyck said the effect of the unrest is also likely to be felt in the first half of 2014, with Moody's projecting the Thai economy to grow 3-4 percent instead of 4.5 percent during the year.

This year's forecast "is subject to how long this protest drags on and how they develop because so far I think we've seen them very much confined to Bangkok", Dyck said.

"We don't see them affecting the airport... we don't see them disrupting the manufacturing and supply chain," he said.

Dyck said "political instability is not new to Thailand" and noted that even a coup in 2006 and political unrest in 2010 did not trigger a ratings downgrade from Moody's.

The firm had assigned a "negative" outlook for Thailand in 2008 when anti-government protesters occupied the capital's international airport for days.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-01-16

[Prbkk]

GDP growth forecast 3-4% 2014. Many countries would love that level of growth

[rubl]

GDP growth forecast 3-4% 2014. Many countries would love that level of growth

some countries are seen as 'developed economies', others still have some catching up to do.

[poisonus]

"Or if we will see any deviation from fiscal discipline that will result in the massive widening of fiscal deficit and the ramp up in public debt, this will trigger a negative rating action," he added.

Erm... someone needs to tell this lot about the rice scam, the water management scam and the plot to borrow 2.2 trillion baht saddling Thailand with up to 6 trillion baht to pay back over the next 50 years. With the government's insistence to press on with all this.

[chiang mai]

I am shocked at the news of the OP!

[fab4]

GDP growth forecast 3-4% 2014. Many countries would love that level of growth

"Or if we will see any deviation from fiscal discipline that will result in the massive widening of fiscal deficit and the ramp up in public debt, this will trigger a negative rating action," he added.

But, but, but, I read lots of posts on TVF that the Shinawatra regime has already bankrupted the nation. How can this be?

[Basil B]

However Moody's, which has assigned Thailand a Baa1 rating with a stable outlook

Stable = always in crisis...

May be a new rating for Thailand "Bra1" = TiT

[surangw]

moody's rating take a while, not an overnight rating service.

check back next month

[rreddin]

"Or if we will see any deviation from fiscal discipline that will result in the massive widening of fiscal deficit and the ramp up in public debt, this will trigger a negative rating action," he added.

Erm... someone needs to tell this lot about the rice scam, the water management scam and the plot to borrow 2.2 trillion baht saddling Thailand with up to 6 trillion baht to pay back over the next 50 years. With the government's insistence to press on with all this.

Now you are being silly. These are the same people who gave the repackaged US toxic housing loans a AAA rating that was instrumental in the financial crash of 2008.

[noitom]

They throw "concerns," "if," and "howevers" in to this story in between only one comment that says political turmoil is not new to Thailand. This story actually augurs poorly for Thailand's ratings. Moody's is not the only credit rating service.

[Prbkk]

They throw "concerns," "if," and "howevers" in to this story in between only one comment that says political turmoil is not new to Thailand. This story actually augurs poorly for Thailand's ratings. Moody's is not the only credit rating service.

The risk comes from a continuation of disruption, chaos, confusion, undermining stemming from an illegal shutdown of the city by people who are not elected , have no policies, a history of corruption,...and some vague vision of running a country through an unlected council . You think that is going down well with ratings agencies? With IMF? With anyone outside Thailand? Everyone knows the answers. What a sham!

[belg]

im not in the MOODY

a++ credit ratings when the crash hit all of us

i guess they got some rice berg to not downgrade the country