US prepared to evacuate citizens from Sochi Winter Olympics

[Scott]

An off-topic post has been deleted.

[simple1]

@Folium, parts of your narrative is echoed in the Time article below.

http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2044732,00.html

An analysis, though somewhat old, regarding Russia’s challenges in its relationship with its majority Islamic near neighbour countries is interesting and again parallels your thoughts..

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55844/rajan-menon-and-graham-e-fuller/russias-ruinous-chechen-war

[IMA_FARANG]

Dont know why pentagon not preparing to evacute citizens from iraq & afgan, were there is a real need..no offence us

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Because if you visit Iraq or Afghanistan, you're presumed to be intelligent enough to be aware of the risks before you leave.

The state department has warnings still in effect (caution, travel at your own risk)

Incidentally I was working in Crete, Greece when the Olympics were held in Athens and surrounding areas.

The U.S. sent the same security team to Athens then as they are sending to Sochi now.

I know because they staged through the U.S. Navy presence in Souda Bay, Crete then.

Such security and response teams are just a routine precaution to protect and help U.S. citizens if required.

They were given access for communications back to the U.S through the U.S. Navy communications system I was working in then.

Nothing unusual, just routine for all Olympic venues.

I dare say, they same people were in London for the Olympics also last summer.

[geriatrickid]

I believe folium has made multiple salient points. There are longstanding grievances that have facilitated the terrorists maintaining their presence in the region. The Russians have some admirable qualities but they are also blighted by violent prejudice. People have short memories. It wasn't too long ago the Russians were having a grand old time with their pogroms. The nationalist movement is thriving and today, and turns its blood lust to those with dark skin or with religions not compatible with the Orthodox doctrine. This doesn't justify the terrorist attacks, nor excuse violence, but it explains the long standing reasons why some groups have turned to violence. The Russians have never been kind, nor shown much consideration to the outlying regions, especially those with muslim populations.

Personally, I don't care. The Russians are reaping what they sowed, especially with their backing of militant states like Syria and Iran. That being said, the terrorist threats are empty. There is no chance the terrorists are going to get within sniper distance of the outer Sochi fences. What they will do, is pull off something at a soft target. They've had years to prepare and to plant sleeper cells. The USN presence in the Black Sea is for show. 2 ships cannot quickly evacuate 10,000 US nationals. I think it is a certain bet that the Russians are going to keep people safe inside Sochi. There will be security everywhere. The Russians are not inept and they have managed to keep their foreign embassies safe in some hostile places, a feat western governments can't match. Putin is a secret policeman's policeman. He's as ruthless as Stalin. Anyone who has information will already have been arrested and tortured if need be, with the information extracted. The Russians are playing for keeps on this one.

[folium]

@Folium, parts of your narrative is echoed in the Time article below.

http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2044732,00.html

An analysis, though somewhat old, regarding Russia’s challenges in its relationship with its majority Islamic near neighbour countries is interesting and again parallels your thoughts..

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55844/rajan-menon-and-graham-e-fuller/russias-ruinous-chechen-war

Two excellent pieces that takes the conversation beyond the typical "bad islam", trite viewpoints.

The Foreign Affairs piece is worth a read for anyone who wants a more than binary viewpoint of the Caucasus shambles.

"Moscow's power is far from running its course. It can still destroy all of Chechnya's cities and towns and kill a large portion of the Chechen people. But it can never create a stable pro-Moscow government in Grozny. Most Chechens would regard a pro-Moscow regime as a collection of quislings; it would need the open-ended protection of Russian troops. Dependence on Moscow would only highlight the regime's illegitimacy and expose it to assassinations, kidnappings, and terrorism -- activities likely to be carried by Chechen militants into Russia proper."

Written in 2000, prophetic words indeed.

[simple1]

@Folium, parts of your narrative is echoed in the Time article below.

http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2044732,00.html

An analysis, though somewhat old, regarding Russia’s challenges in its relationship with its majority Islamic near neighbour countries is interesting and again parallels your thoughts..

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55844/rajan-menon-and-graham-e-fuller/russias-ruinous-chechen-war

Two excellent pieces that takes the conversation beyond the typical "bad islam", trite viewpoints.

The Foreign Affairs piece is worth a read for anyone who wants a more than binary viewpoint of the Caucasus shambles.

"Moscow's power is far from running its course. It can still destroy all of Chechnya's cities and towns and kill a large portion of the Chechen people. But it can never create a stable pro-Moscow government in Grozny. Most Chechens would regard a pro-Moscow regime as a collection of quislings; it would need the open-ended protection of Russian troops. Dependence on Moscow would only highlight the regime's illegitimacy and expose it to assassinations, kidnappings, and terrorism -- activities likely to be carried by Chechen militants into Russia proper."

Written in 2000, prophetic words indeed.

I believe you have a military background and an extensive interest in these matters. Accordingly you might be interested in taking a look at the analysis by Rand Corporation under the heading ‘How Terrorist Groups End’ at the URL below A quote “Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended, and few groups within this time frame achieved victory”

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9351/index1.html

[Scott]

An off-topic post has been deleted.