Security agencies see limited possibility of violence today

[Lite Beer]

FEBRUARY 2 ELECTION
Security agencies see limited possibility of violence today
Pakorn Puengnetr
The Sunday Nation:

A police officer, right, attempts unsuccessfully to persuade protesters from the People

BANGKOK: -- Close watch on outskirts of Bangkok, which could be prone to clashes

Security agencies, mainly the Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order, expected no riots or severe clashes between people with different political opinions on election day today, but remain wary that the outskirts of Bangkok and provinces in the South could be vulnerable areas.

Many people might be looking beyond today's election as they believe it will be nullified. However, attention must be paid to the possibility of violence today amid the ongoing political conflict, going by the bloodshed that took place for the advance just last Sunday.

The divide is still great between people who seek national reform before the election and those who want the reforms to follow the election.

According to the security agencies, four scenarios are possible:

1 The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) undertakes a symbolic protest by rallying on the streets to make the point that a lot of Thais are boycotting the election. In this case, there is little chance of violence.

2 The PDRC obstructs the election by blocking voters at 50 district offices in Bangkok where the ballot equipments are stored. In this case, some chaos is possible but the government believes it would be able to keep it under control and the Election Commission (EC) would be able to hold by-elections.

3 Some groups instigate a situation that could lead to the election being nullified. Some clashes might happen and force the vote counting to be stopped in some areas.

4 Severe clashes lead to widespread rioting, forcing the military to take control of the situation. It will not be a military coup, though.

However, the security agencies have not seen mobilisation of people from the South to Bangkok as during the "Bangkok shutdown" on January 13 or previous mass rallies. Therefore, the first and second scenarios are more likely, a source, who asked not to be named, said.

The PDRC's strategy appears to have changed from blocking the holding of the election to poll nullification by having political groups file a case in the Constitutional Court to nullify the elections.

The PDRC would need to conserve its manpower and resources should the protests be prolonged further while awaiting the Constitutional Court rulings or other independent agencies to take action against government members as well as former government MPs and senators. The cases include the National Anti-Corruption Commission's investigation into the rice-pledging scheme and the impeachment of the 308 lawmakers who proposed or supported the Constitution amendment related to the composition of the Senate.

In Bangkok, sensitive areas include the constituencies where those supporting and opposing the election are in equal numbers. In Thon Buri, Bang Bon could be a volatile district while districts in Bangkok with scope for conflict include Min Buri, Nong Chok and Lat Phrao. These outskirts are also strongholds of the Pheu Thai Party and the red shirts.

In particular, Phra Nakhon, Dusit, Pathumwan, Pom Prap Sattru Phai, Din Daeng, Bang Sue, Chatuchak, Klong Toei, Don Muang, Lak Si, Ratchathewi, Lat Phrao and Wattana are among the vulnerable areas.

Besides Bangkok, the areas deserving special attention include the post offices in Thung Song in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Chumphon and Hat Yai of Songkhla as the party-list ballot papers have been blocked there.

The Democrats' decision to boycott the election raised hopes of Pheu Thai candidates and local parties to win in the traditional Democrat strongholds. Many of them filed only as party-list candidates. If the election is obstructed, those politicians will be angry at the lost opportunity.

Besides Bangkok, the areas deserving special attention include the post offices in Thung Song of Nakhon Si Thammarat, Chumphon and Hat Yai of Songkhla as the ballot paper has been blocked there.

To deal with any eventuality, some 130,000 police officers have been deployed nationwide, besides 47 military companies, who will be ready for rapid deployment if there is violence. Logistics that could be used to mobilise a lot of people will also be closely monitored.

-- The Nation 2014-02-02

[pookiki]

What saddens me the most is that the police and/or army has been totally ineffective in insuring the democratic right of Thai people to cast a vote in this election. The lack of effective security at District offices in Bangkok and at provinces in the south to insure the delivery of ballots and polling materials only contribute to an atmosphere of anarchy and the ability of the PDRC to act at will to hold Thai people hostage. The inability of people to vote today will be long remembered by those affected.

[harada]

I'm sure that everything will be rosey because Suthep has already told everyone that it will be a picnic day, but unfortunately he wont be able to make it, he has a whitening appointment.

[Roadman]

What saddens me the most is that the police and/or army has been totally ineffective in insuring the democratic right of Thai people to cast a vote in this election. The lack of effective security at District offices in Bangkok and at provinces in the south to insure the delivery of ballots and polling materials only contribute to an atmosphere of anarchy and the ability of the PDRC to act at will to hold Thai people hostage. The inability of people to vote today will be long remembered by those affected.

And where have they been able to effectively manage anything in the past? Some would say that the Army's dealing to the violent protesters in 2010 was effective in that casualties, given live firing zones were in fashion, were light...while others would say it was a failure as people died. Right or wrong on that the Army has learnt this time to stay out so is that ineffective or is it being wise? I would suggest wise. What is not debatable is that the police are to be completely honest a total waste of breathing space and are totally ineffective. And that is now as they were when the other lot were at it in 2010. If the police did their job then a good chunk of Thailand's law and order issues would start being resolved. The PDRC are holding the country hostage now the same as Thaksin's mobs did in 2010. Different day, different colour but the same lawless crap.

Hopefully most will remember this day as when Thailand stood up to corrupt incompetent politicians from all corners and with the support of the courts, the Army, the business sector and all social sectors including education start on a reformed path away from this current and past undemocratic political garbage that is making them the laughing stock of not only the world but more so there supposedly lesser ASEAN neighbours.

[MaiChai]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

[noitom]

What saddens me the most is that the police and/or army has been totally ineffective in insuring the democratic right of Thai people to cast a vote in this election. The lack of effective security at District offices in Bangkok and at provinces in the south to insure the delivery of ballots and polling materials only contribute to an atmosphere of anarchy and the ability of the PDRC to act at will to hold Thai people hostage. The inability of people to vote today will be long remembered by those affected.

And the collapse of the Thai police's ability to command authority.

[EricBerg]

CMPO foresees. Chalerm and Tarit represent the shinaclan as some of their leaders. Men with vision that want to do good for Thailand. So very sad that many people up north believe that.

[harada]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Instead of continuously complaining and moaning about Yingluck/Toxin mafia, why the so called "Democrats" or "peaceful" but armed and equally corrupted PDRC try to propose a REAL alternate. I mean candidates that also have a program for the farmers/Issan. The real problem is NOT Toxin and his family. The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided, FEUDAL type. Why is Thaksin so popular with farmers? No only because of corrupted populist measures... Because he dared to listen to the farmers, he did a lot of things for them, develop infrastructures in rural areas. I am NOT a red or Thaksin supporters, but the root cause of the problem has still not been addressed. We also know that the anti-corruption campaign by Suthep is another scam. Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, Thai people have a very short memory. Democracy does not work in Thailand because politicians do not think for the people, they only think for a color; red or yellow.

WHEN someone will have the "balls" to think, speak and act ORANGE?!?! This is the critical key to a proper Democracy.

A Thai man being interviewed by an Australian reporter at yesterdays protests summed it up pretty well by saying THE SYSTEM IS EATING THE COUNTRY.

[love1012]

What saddens me the most is that the police and/or army has been totally ineffective in insuring the democratic right of Thai people to cast a vote in this election. The lack of effective security at District offices in Bangkok and at provinces in the south to insure the delivery of ballots and polling materials only contribute to an atmosphere of anarchy and the ability of the PDRC to act at will to hold Thai people hostage. The inability of people to vote today will be long remembered by those affected.

yes it will - as a strong statement against those wishing to return impeached corrupt criminals to positions of authority. By the way - the police have been ineffective because they have been ordered to be so by the puppet Government.

[love1012]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Instead of continuously complaining and moaning about Yingluck/Toxin mafia, why the so called "Democrats" or "peaceful" but armed and equally corrupted PDRC try to propose a REAL alternate. I mean candidates that also have a program for the farmers/Issan. The real problem is NOT Toxin and his family. The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided, FEUDAL type. Why is Thaksin so popular with farmers? No only because of corrupted populist measures... Because he dared to listen to the farmers, he did a lot of things for them, develop infrastructures in rural areas. I am NOT a red or Thaksin supporters, but the root cause of the problem has still not been addressed. We also know that the anti-corruption campaign by Suthep is another scam. Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, Thai people have a very short memory. Democracy does not work in Thailand because politicians do not think for the people, they only think for a color; red or yellow.

WHEN someone will have the "balls" to think, speak and act ORANGE?!?! This is the critical key to a proper Democracy.

Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided,

You need to some reading i think and not put forwarded unsupported statements - If you have evidence of Suthep being impeached and hiding billions of baht and murdering 300 people in the South as well as murdering inoocent bystanders in 2010 PLEASE present it. Or else research before posting and dont claim not to be a biased red as your post betrays you!!!! Remember this society was divided by Shianwatra between 2006 and 2008!!

[toonsai]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Instead of continuously complaining and moaning about Yingluck/Toxin mafia, why the so called "Democrats" or "peaceful" but armed and equally corrupted PDRC try to propose a REAL alternate. I mean candidates that also have a program for the farmers/Issan. The real problem is NOT Toxin and his family. The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided, FEUDAL type. Why is Thaksin so popular with farmers? No only because of corrupted populist measures... Because he dared to listen to the farmers, he did a lot of things for them, develop infrastructures in rural areas. I am NOT a red or Thaksin supporters, but the root cause of the problem has still not been addressed. We also know that the anti-corruption campaign by Suthep is another scam. Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, Thai people have a very short memory. Democracy does not work in Thailand because politicians do not think for the people, they only think for a color; red or yellow.

WHEN someone will have the "balls" to think, speak and act ORANGE?!?! This is the critical key to a proper Democracy.

Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided,

You need to some reading i think and not put forwarded unsupported statements - If you have evidence of Suthep being impeached and hiding billions of baht and murdering 300 people in the South as well as murdering inoocent bystanders in 2010 PLEASE present it. Or else research before posting and dont claim not to be a biased red as your post betrays you!!!! Remember this society was divided by Shianwatra between 2006 and 2008!!

Do not take the audience for tourists please... Suthep has come under fire during his political career before, most notably in 1995 when he was accused of giving the rich land rights under a land reform programme meant for the poor. As part of the Sor Por Kor 4-01 (สปก.4-01) land reform scheme, Suthep gave title deeds to 592 plots of land in Khao Sam Liam, Kamala and Nakkerd hills of Phuket province to 489 farmers. It was later found that members of 11 wealthy families in Phuket were among the recipients. Suthep addressed a huge crowd in his Surat Thani constituency a month before a no-confidence debate and called on his supporters to march on Bangkok in the hundreds of thousands to defend his reputation.[5] The scandal led Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai of the Democrat Party to dissolve the House of Representatives in July 1995 in order to avoid the no-confidence debate.

Don't you call this collusion and at the end corruption? Stop your demagogic propaganda and look at the roots causes, not only the politicians who are ALL corrupted; red or yellow. All this is just another game between powerful families to get a bigger share of the cake.

[focus27]

The Nation forgot this...

5) The Election Commission and its agents shut down as many polling stations as possible to avoid violence and voting. Job done!

Just look at the news snippets in the Live News thread - polling stations closed due to lack of staff or EC directors!

[geriatrickid]

What saddens me the most is that the police and/or army has been totally ineffective in insuring the democratic right of Thai people to cast a vote in this election. The lack of effective security at District offices in Bangkok and at provinces in the south to insure the delivery of ballots and polling materials only contribute to an atmosphere of anarchy and the ability of the PDRC to act at will to hold Thai people hostage. The inability of people to vote today will be long remembered by those affected.

I understand your point, and it is valid. Unfortunately, we have to accept the reality in that there are not enough police officers to keep the peace and the army is hanging back. If the army deployed it would have a PR fiasco on its hands, as the army is neither trained nor equipped for civilian policing.If deployed it would raise the hackles of those who believe that the military should not involve itself in an election, and we'd have the coup rumour growing longer legs. You are right, but the responsibility for peaceful lawful protest lies with the PDRC. It is up to the PDRC to choose between right and wrong.

[Ulysses G.]

You need to some reading

You need to follow your own advice. BOTH sides are corrupt. Both sides are buying votes. Both sides are manipulating the little people. There is no good choice.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Ulysses G.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Not just Isan, a lot of Thailand. In Mochit bus station its very busy, as you know you vote in your house document province, which is why so many migrant Bangkok folk are returning home to vote. Them dam_n voters are in your capital, spoiling your eliteness! It's just that their votes count in the provinces because they can't afford to live full time in the capital. They likely far outnumber you.

Look at the attachment (Attribution Wikipedia Sharealike licence).

Notice Yingluk won 265 seats to Abhisits 159, up 76 seats. That's 76 seats that rejected the Democrats and their friends.

Second thing to notice is the 'Last Elections'. With PT as "did not contest". That's actually only half true, they contested, won, Abhisits yellows did the same as Suthep is doing now, trying to grab power by mob + media lies, the elite then banned a bunch of reds, Abhisit then paid a party to switch sides so he could form a coalition enough to put himself in power, a soft coup as its known.

He ran one of the most disastrous governments ever, so bad that it needed a massive censorship law, and even now you yellows won't admit what really happened in 2010.

PT rose from the ashes at the next election and promptly won the election easily. Voters booted Democrats out again, including previously democrat seats, LOTS OF THEM!

So now we seem to be on the same track. Elites making noises consistent with soft coup. Suthep fighting battles with pro-voter mobs. The key thing about yesterday is without his gunmen, his mob would have been driven off the office where the ballots were held.

He didn't even have enough people to hold one station.

Edited February 2, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[BlueNoseCodger]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Instead of continuously complaining and moaning about Yingluck/Toxin mafia, why the so called "Democrats" or "peaceful" but armed and equally corrupted PDRC try to propose a REAL alternate. I mean candidates that also have a program for the farmers/Issan. The real problem is NOT Toxin and his family. The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided, FEUDAL type. Why is Thaksin so popular with farmers? No only because of corrupted populist measures... Because he dared to listen to the farmers, he did a lot of things for them, develop infrastructures in rural areas. I am NOT a red or Thaksin supporters, but the root cause of the problem has still not been addressed. We also know that the anti-corruption campaign by Suthep is another scam. Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, Thai people have a very short memory. Democracy does not work in Thailand because politicians do not think for the people, they only think for a color; red or yellow.

WHEN someone will have the "balls" to think, speak and act ORANGE?!?! This is the critical key to a proper Democracy.

Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided,

You need to some reading i think and not put forwarded unsupported statements - If you have evidence of Suthep being impeached and hiding billions of baht and murdering 300 people in the South as well as murdering inoocent bystanders in 2010 PLEASE present it. Or else research before posting and dont claim not to be a biased red as your post betrays you!!!! Remember this society was divided by Shianwatra between 2006 and 2008!!

When did Yingluk do any of that?

Really you lot flip between two modes:

1) "Yingluk is too dumb to run the country, she's just a red-skirt"

2) "Yingluk isn't running the country, Thaksin is"

You can't even keep to a consistent lie.

[Alwyn]

I'm sure that everything will be rosey because Suthep has already told everyone that it will be a picnic day, but unfortunately he wont be able to make it, he has a whitening appointment.

I heard about that, he's having his ass bleached to ensure his reception in prison is not too rough

[simon43]

All of issan will vote for PT

Why is that? I know that ALL political sides are corrupt, but is it perhaps that Issan has benefited more from the role of Thaksin and PT over the years, than from other political parties.

Rather than being 'anti-democracy' and trying to stop everyone from voting, (and many will want to vote for parties other than the PT), perhaps Suthep and his mob could actually come up with some policies that appeal to the Issan voters, rather than trying to take the vote away from them.

Simon

[Scamper]

Suthep's resolution not to block the vote is very important and key to the success of the movement's stand. Indeed, all this is heading to the courts.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Scamper

[marko kok prong]

not sure how they see limited possibilities, was there not a 2 hour gun battle yesterday,or does that not count.

[Phuketboy]

Ah yes Thai democracy. All of issan will vote for PT and we will have another 3 years of inept Yingluck, corrupt PT policies, more rice scams, getting Taksin off the hook, and trillions of baht loans off the books that the tax payers will take 50 years to pay off. What a great day for democracy and a great future for Thailand!

Instead of continuously complaining and moaning about Yingluck/Toxin mafia, why the so called "Democrats" or "peaceful" but armed and equally corrupted PDRC try to propose a REAL alternate. I mean candidates that also have a program for the farmers/Issan. The real problem is NOT Toxin and his family. The REAL problem is that the Thai Society is heavily divided, FEUDAL type. Why is Thaksin so popular with farmers? No only because of corrupted populist measures... Because he dared to listen to the farmers, he did a lot of things for them, develop infrastructures in rural areas. I am NOT a red or Thaksin supporters, but the root cause of the problem has still not been addressed. We also know that the anti-corruption campaign by Suthep is another scam. Suthep is as corrupted as Thaksin, Thai people have a very short memory. Democracy does not work in Thailand because politicians do not think for the people, they only think for a color; red or yellow.

WHEN someone will have the "balls" to think, speak and act ORANGE?!?! This is the critical key to a proper Democracy.

A Thai man being interviewed by an Australian reporter at yesterdays protests summed it up pretty well by saying THE SYSTEM IS EATING THE COUNTRY.

Australia should concentrate on their own issues. The Australian government has f%$ed Australia, selling off assets, too many rules and regulations, ridiculous over pricing and tax. Just as corrupt but not out in the open like Thailand. People however are beginning to see this as the country is almost being run like communist country. More people are moving overseas, the people who are moving to Australia arn't staying long before moving back home and travellers are not returning because its so expensive now. Maybe the Australian reporter should concentrate on reporting on Australian issues before the same thing happens there.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Phuketboy

[rubl]

So, all suggestions seem to put the blame on the anti-government protesters already.

Next we'll get someone to state that id all just went home there would be no problem. Welcome to the Land of Democracy.

PS walked past a few polling stations in my district 5 Dusit here in Bangkok. Very relaxed,Saw a police man having his second breakfast, most stations just the one or two policemen (in uniform)..

Edited February 2, 2014 by rubl

[Mr Yim]

I find some of the attitudes towards the police as insulting. We are approaching the anniversary where 2 brave policemen were killed tackling an imbecile with a grenade at a festival at Na Dun. Two of many who are killed annually in the line of duty. The generalisation by some posters is pathetic. The police were told to keep a low profile by the army. They are simply complying with orders from the all powerful general. If they had been given a free hand to deal with the situation, Suthep would be behind bars and this whole farce would have ended months ago. The army are to blame for the lack of law enforcement.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Mr Yim

[Halion]

The ineptitude and partisan mentality of the RTP is simply ludicrous. Yesterday, I witnessed a gun battle at Laksi while the police just stood around or hid themselves in positions of safety. What possible use is this defunct collection of misfits and morons with regard to public safety. When there are altercations they are nowhere to be seen, In In Silom in 2010 they were no where to be seen. They and their commanders are a total disgrace to both the nation and the public.

In other countries which experience social unrest the local law enforcement undergoes significant casualties in the execution of their duties however this is not the case for the lily livered local heroes in brown. All they are good for is strutting around and scamming the public for tea money.