How do you envisage the future of Thailand?

[liddelljohn]

I was at a Thai faith healers shrine yesterday and there were thais from all over thailand visiting and openly discussing the political situation,, i noticed that the self declared red shirts were happily talking with self declared yellows and other opinions but what was most enlightening is that they all seemed to be on the same page , that reform is needed of the POLICE, JUDICARY ,ELITE POLITICIANS , many of the reds are cynical now about Taksin and his clan , the rice scheme seems the last straw on broken promises , many of the yellows are cynical of their leaders too ,, also the Legal restraints on ordinary people working class , middle class and peasant to be in the political game need reform , and both groups were fearful of underhand fanatics and agent provocateurs , finally and what they all most fear is the passing of the king he represents stability , they all worry that that will unleash chaos.

There was friendship and common cause amongst these diverse people which is the core of the Thai people , reform must come not from the elite top 2% but from the 98% of people and I believe that slow process is now in motion .modern technology is one driver .

[dighambara]

I suspect the answer has already been posted by 'Time World': http://world.time.com/2014/02/12/thailand-was-never-the-land-of-smiles/

Edited February 13, 2014 by dighambara

[geronimo]

They will survive. Thais are incredible adaptable.

[fifthcolumn]

I don't think the return of Taksin is a bad thing these factors aside:

He lied snd cheated the nation

Was held to account, found guilty of crimes

Fled the country, did not pay his debt to society

Continues to allegedly run the country from outside

But other than the extrajudical killings, the country ran very well under him.

What I see is a polarized electorate, much like in US. This is going to cause similar problems. The govt is bloated and worse, msny have paid for their jobs (corruption) so they feel entitled to keep the office as well as use it as a personal profit center. It will be impossible to det rid of this dead weight. Then you have their pensions. Govt is too militarized.

Real estate is over due for a big correction. I see condos 25% over priced, but really solid buys are going to be 50% less.

Education is a disaster. If Thais need to compete in the world for anything, its a fail.

The magic of Thailand is depressed wages and low profit margins.

Technology will disappear vast numbers of jobs in a twenty years.

Mostly, I just see creeping skeezy corruption as killing the middle class and the poor. It is already impossible to unroot. It eill become just like Philippines and Cambodia is quickly becoming, you need to pay people off to obtain basic servuces that should be readily available under normal conditions and governments.

Thais will be increasingly isolated with their inability to speak English or Chinese. In fifty years, it will be an island of ignorance. Khmer, Viets and Burmese, English will be second language.

Lots of unemployed, lots. Jobs will be moved to Africa just as soon as yhe continent can understand how it all works (eg Myanmar). It has tons of cheap labor and natural resources. At that point, Thailand will just close its doirs and brcome protectionist.

Edited February 13, 2014 by fifthcolumn

[gerrythepoet]

Your questions are serious and you are getting a fairly broad view from TV posters.

I have been living and working here for 8 years now divorced and did contemplate moving.

I am of the opinion that what lies at stake in the short term is to get this mess cleared away and as long as the outcome is acceptable to the Thai people from all backgrounds then Thailand can go forward like any other country that has been through a mess. However the eyes need to be focused on the AEC and the challenges and demands that go with that especially in Education and Infrastructure.

In the long term I am happy to pass my life here, it is better to deal with the devil you know.

Financially I think expats will get hit again perhaps with the deposits in the bank for extension of stay and regulations tighter

The students are growing up realising that Thailand is not the centre of the universe and will get to understand the need for Thailand to pick itself up and not accept sabai sabai.

It is always good to take a break visit the neighbouring countries as a tourist and get to grips with the streetwise folk and then more of your questions will become answers

Good luck

[gerrythepoet]

I suspect the answer has already been posted by 'Time World': http://world.time.com/2014/02/12/thailand-was-never-the-land-of-smiles/

Interesting article, thanks

[thailiketoo]

I suspect the answer has already been posted by 'Time World': http://world.time.com/2014/02/12/thailand-was-never-the-land-of-smiles/

Good article. This is a quote, "Discontent spread to other regions as well, peasant revolts rocked the central plains and the north in the 1970s amid crippling debt and overbearing rule from, once again, Bangkok. “By adhering to this very rigid centralized power structure, Thailand has made it difficult to manage the populations across the country,” says McCargo. “As politics becomes polarized when you have a highly centralized system, there’s not much give and take.”

Most people posting on TV have a head in the sand problem but if they would read your article they would have a realistic idea of what is going on and what is going to happen.

[pkspeaker]

People who think the Shinawatra's are the problem are ignorant of what the Thai population really is. it is a patchwork of 'Lanna's' and 'Loa's' which are the majority, and the Bangkok and southern 'Tai-Thai's' which are in the minority but have dominated this country for hundreds of years. In 1932 during the fascist nation state era, a group of french educated elite fascist led by Phibun Songkram (who kept a signed photo of Benito Mussolini hanging behind his desk) overthrew the monarchy and chased the royal family out of the country, they then sided with Japan in WWII so they could get back Laos and Cambodia, even Vietnam from the french, they're mentality was empire and domination. After the war the US had this 'anything but communism' policy so Thailand the military dictatorship continued until the 1997 constitution in which a normal democracy w/o most of the parliament appointed by the elite, was put into place and Thaksin's TRT party which actually wooed northern Thailands voters, won.. by then Thailand had one of the worst disparity between rich and poor in the world.. here's what he did:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra

After a historic election victory in 2001, he became prime minister, the country's first to serve a full term.^[23] Thaksin introduced a range of policies to alleviate rural poverty; highly popular, they helped reduce poverty by half in four years.^[24][25] He launched the country's first universal healthcare program,^[26] the 30-baht scheme, as well as a highly notorious drug suppression campaign.^[27] Thaksin embarked on a massive program of infrastructure investment, including roads, public transit, and Suvarnabhumi Airport. Nevertheless, public sector debt fell from 57% of GDP in January 2001 to 41% in September 2006.^[28][29] Levels of corruption were perceived to have fallen, with Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index improving from 3.2 to 3.8 between 2001 and 2005.^[30] The Thai Rak Thai party won an unprecedented landslide in the 2005 general election, which had the highest voter turnout in Thai history.^[3

THIS, the bangkok elite decided was 'vote buying and corruption' they can't handle looking bad after their policies in the 1990s led to the 1997 Asian financial crises which was caused by Thailand. They hate it that this 'new money' family from the north became so popular after taking the initiative to improve the lives of the majority of the population, rather then re-engaging with the voters and offering something better they started crying like a bitch and decided the democracy is 'corrupt' because it prevents the former dictators from easlily winning elections and they would have to actually work for their jobs.

[cup-O-coffee]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

Two brothers are sitting around at night drinking whiskey. A fight develops. One brother tells the other brother his performance is poor. Out comes the machete and results in one dead brother.

A hi-so is sitting at a street-side restaurant, eating. The owner comes out and accidentally spills fish sauce on the Hi-so. The hi-so is infuriated and returns later to fire shots into the restaurant owner's establishment.

A Thai man rapes and murders a babysitter, and then goes on to murder the two babies who were being tended. The mother of the murderer claims she could never control her son.

The stories are endless and unique in their own way.

--------------------

As the days of reading the media turn into weeks and months and years, I am becoming more and more aware of what these people are capable of at any given moment; ...homicide being the ultimate end of their bestial rages.

The thing is, here in Thailand, nothing bad rarely goes on that long, It usually flashes and goes away quite rapidly; but when it does flash, you don't want to be there, or to be the object of their passion.

I see the future the same as the past. Whatever bad is going to happen (even with these current events) will most likely not go on that long, and a semblance of peace will be restored after the thirst for blood and necks is satiated.

Scapegoats will be sacrificed... excuses will be given - and believed - certain people will disappear, and the spark taken out of the masses... and life will go on as it has been going on for thousands of years.

As the old geezer said, "Always have a way out... a haven for when the storm comes... as well as a plan to protect yourself and yours."

Thai social problems are not like hurricanes, they are more like tornadoes. If you are quick, you can see the path and avoid a lot. If you aren't quick, then have a hole to crawl in to until it passes over quickly.

Just my thoughts; and no, I am not too concerned because I have my bases covered.

[chrisinth]

I am probably the only one on this thread who appreciated the good things that Thaksin did for Thailand. I moved to Phuket here in 2002 and until the coup of 2006, it was the most stable time for the country.

I readily acknowledge that Thaksin was/is corrupt, but so are ALL the other politicians of ALL flavours in this country.

At least Thaksin was not an idiot, but a businessman, who ran the country as a profitable and successful business, (whilst creaming off some of the proceeds for himself).

I fear for the future of Thailand, because the current bunch of politicians (on all sides), do not have his business acument. They are simply corrupt without intelligence or common sense.

Clearly, there will probably be a major event within the next 10 years that will strike home to ALL Thais. I cannot say more.

The country staggers on with inept and corrupt politicians. I cannot see that changing....

Simon

No Simon, not the only one with your views, I can agree with most of them. It is very true that people have short term memory, especially regarding what Thaksin achieved economically for Thailand. Even though his 'war on drugs' could have been addressed a lot better, at least he had a go. That he was using his position of power to his advantage cannot be argued.

Unfortunately, his ego destroyed him, and his legacy has been left with Thai politics. I wouldn't condemn the coup, I believe a change at that time was needed. IMHO, until he decides to come back and face the charges against him, not much will change. People on both sides have been allowed to carry on unhindered with their childishly organized protests to a point now where it is a 'tit-for-tat' situation which, if left will carry on for years to come.

Just for clarity, I have no affiliation to any political party, neither in Thailand or elsewhere, the above are simply observations.

[GOLDBUGGY]

Since absolute monarchy was dissolved in Thailand in 1932 there has been 12 Coups in Thailand, with the last one being in 2006. In World History of the total Coups per country, only Bolivia, which hasn't had a coup in 30 years, Haiti, and Afghanistan, had have more. So it leaves me to wonder why everyone is making such a big deal of this political unrest that is going on right now.

I think history repeats itself. So to guess where Thailand will be 10 years from now you need to look 10 years backward first. More modernisation, especially in farming communities. Tractors and Private Trucks, instead of Water Buffalo. More Modern Appliances, like Washing Machines, instead of Scrub Boards. Mostly because of more opportunity to get credit from bank then ever before.

Thailand will remain strong in the Manufactory Sector, having skilled labour working for lower wages. But these wages will come up as a result of a shortage, and although not near as high as the West, this will increase the cost of living here. Just as it has done these past 10 years. Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially.

With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages. Leaving a shortage of skilled workers here. Taking over the Family Farm will be a thing of the past, so I expect to see larger, more efficient farms in the next 10 years or so.

There will be more migration to Retire to Thailand, as the Baby Boomers continue to retire in the next 10 years. Also more Russians and Chinese. More money being spent on luxury items and medical care. Also, with more money coming home from Overseas, I again expect to see the cost of living to go up and up. Not to the level of what Singapore is now, but perhaps on some items, higher than the West. .

You wrote, "With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages"

Japan, Korea and China are not members of ASEAN.

You wrote, "Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially."

Perhaps you could list the resources of Japan and Singapore?

True in what you say about the lack of Natural Resources for both Japan and Singapore, and this has weighted heavily on both of them. Even today they used Nuclear Power, to save on imported gas, and we all know how that turned out. But Japan was not always a rich nation. If you go back to the 1960's anything bought from Japan was considered cheap junk. Do you remember those toys plastic shoulders from Japan? Even Japanese Oranges where a great buy at Christmas Time back then.

Japan struggled for many years to get out of poverty even though it opened its doors to the West in 1886, and became an industrial nation ever since. Importing raw material and exporting manufactured goods. But it was only in the late 1980's that Japan moved from a low-wage to high wage economy. So even thought they experienced rapid growth post WW 2, the people per say did not benefit much from this other then having steady employment.

What helps Japan along now is that they are the words 3rd largest auto maker, the largest producer of electronic goods, and are leaders in high-tech and precision goods, like Optical Instruments, Hybrid Vehicles, and Robotics. Comparing Thailand to Japan is like comparing and Apple to and Orange, Be the worlds largest seller of Electronic Goods certainly puts more money in your pocket and Nation, then being the worlds largest seller of Rice.

Singapore also lacks resources and imports many. But it is also the worlds top 3 export refining centres with many refineries, and is also has a huge Chemical Industry. Singapore is a highly developed trade oriented country having one of the busiest ports in the world. It also has a low population compared to many others countries in ASEAN.

True that Japan, Korea, and China are not part of ASEAN. But it does open the door for migration between countries and this was the point I was trying to make. I never said Thailand can not be a huge financial success in the future. I just said it won't do that in 10 years. It took Japan about 40 years. In the manufacture sector, when the raw materials go up in price to produce a product, the outcome is that this product also goes up in price.

[thailiketoo]

Since absolute monarchy was dissolved in Thailand in 1932 there has been 12 Coups in Thailand, with the last one being in 2006. In World History of the total Coups per country, only Bolivia, which hasn't had a coup in 30 years, Haiti, and Afghanistan, had have more. So it leaves me to wonder why everyone is making such a big deal of this political unrest that is going on right now.

I think history repeats itself. So to guess where Thailand will be 10 years from now you need to look 10 years backward first. More modernisation, especially in farming communities. Tractors and Private Trucks, instead of Water Buffalo. More Modern Appliances, like Washing Machines, instead of Scrub Boards. Mostly because of more opportunity to get credit from bank then ever before.

Thailand will remain strong in the Manufactory Sector, having skilled labour working for lower wages. But these wages will come up as a result of a shortage, and although not near as high as the West, this will increase the cost of living here. Just as it has done these past 10 years. Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially.

With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages. Leaving a shortage of skilled workers here. Taking over the Family Farm will be a thing of the past, so I expect to see larger, more efficient farms in the next 10 years or so.

There will be more migration to Retire to Thailand, as the Baby Boomers continue to retire in the next 10 years. Also more Russians and Chinese. More money being spent on luxury items and medical care. Also, with more money coming home from Overseas, I again expect to see the cost of living to go up and up. Not to the level of what Singapore is now, but perhaps on some items, higher than the West. .

You wrote, "With joining ASEAN, I expect to see more migration from younger educated Thai's to countries like Japan, Korea, and even perhaps China, for better wages"

Japan, Korea and China are not members of ASEAN.

You wrote, "Thailand lacks the Resources to become a rich nation. Oil, Natural Gas or Coal (for Cheap Power Generation), Gold, Iron or Copper. So they will remain reliant on this which will hold them back financially."

Perhaps you could list the resources of Japan and Singapore?

True in what you say about the lack of Natural Resources for both Japan and Singapore, and this has weighted heavily on both of them. Even today they used Nuclear Power, to save on imported gas, and we all know how that turned out. But Japan was not always a rich nation. If you go back to the 1960's anything bought from Japan was considered cheap junk. Do you remember those toys plastic shoulders from Japan? Even Japanese Oranges where a great buy at Christmas Time back then.

Japan struggled for many years to get out of poverty even though it opened its doors to the West in 1886, and became an industrial nation ever since. Importing raw material and exporting manufactured goods. But it was only in the late 1980's that Japan moved from a low-wage to high wage economy. So even thought they experienced rapid growth post WW 2, the people per say did not benefit much from this other then having steady employment.

What helps Japan along now is that they are the words 3rd largest auto maker, the largest producer of electronic goods, and are leaders in high-tech and precision goods, like Optical Instruments, Hybrid Vehicles, and Robotics. Comparing Thailand to Japan is like comparing and Apple to and Orange, Be the worlds largest seller of Electronic Goods certainly puts more money in your pocket and Nation, then being the worlds largest seller of Rice.

Singapore also lacks resources and imports many. But it is also the worlds top 3 export refining centres with many refineries, and is also has a huge Chemical Industry. Singapore is a highly developed trade oriented country having one of the busiest ports in the world. It also has a low population compared to many others countries in ASEAN.

True that Japan, Korea, and China are not part of ASEAN. But it does open the door for migration between countries and this was the point I was trying to make. I never said Thailand can not be a huge financial success in the future. I just said it won't do that in 10 years. It took Japan about 40 years. In the manufacture sector, when the raw materials go up in price to produce a product, the outcome is that this product also goes up in price.

Compared to neighboring nations Thailand is a magnificent success right now.

You wrote, "True that Japan, Korea, and China are not part of ASEAN. But it does open the door for migration between countries and this was the point I was trying to make." No. There are no changes in immigration scheduled for Japan and Korea and who would want to go to China that would be a step down for most Thais that I know.

I realize you are trying to make Thailand look bad but they have done much better than Vietnam, Laos, Burma and Cambodia and that is the neighborhood they live in.

[iancnx]

I was at a Thai faith healers shrine yesterday and there were thais from all over thailand visiting and openly discussing the political situation,, i noticed that the self declared red shirts were happily talking with self declared yellows and other opinions but what was most enlightening is that they all seemed to be on the same page , that reform is needed of the POLICE, JUDICARY ,ELITE POLITICIANS , many of the reds are cynical now about Taksin and his clan , the rice scheme seems the last straw on broken promises , many of the yellows are cynical of their leaders too ,, also the Legal restraints on ordinary people working class , middle class and peasant to be in the political game need reform , and both groups were fearful of underhand fanatics and agent provocateurs , finally and what they all most fear is the passing of the king he represents stability , they all worry that that will unleash chaos.

There was friendship and common cause amongst these diverse people which is the core of the Thai people , reform must come not from the elite top 2% but from the 98% of people and I believe that slow process is now in motion .modern technology is one driver .

This is the most reassuring post on the thread.... Best post all week probably.

If this small gathering of diverse people from across the spectrum of the political divide is in any way representative of the majority, then there IS hope.

[stickylies]

#68 pkspeaker

jup. thailand is a classes society where people should stick to their "class", know their "place" in society/life, accept it and keep mouth shut. one of the major downsides here imo.

example: this guy i know sells shirts on the market. over the years he learned some english (from dealing with tourists) as he's ambitious, always carrying around his dictionary. then this other guy i know barely speaks a word english, works in an office, is older and comes from "better" (ie. richer) family. well, if the latter is at my house and the former comes by, the former will not speak english because that's too "bold" and could cause loss of face to the other fella. when i asked him about that in private he says: the other is more big, i must keep low-profile ...

sad.

[David48]

I was at a Thai faith healers shrine yesterday and there were thais from all over thailand visiting and openly discussing the political situation,, i noticed that the self declared red shirts were happily talking with self declared yellows and other opinions but what was most enlightening is that they all seemed to be on the same page , that reform is needed of the POLICE, JUDICARY ,ELITE POLITICIANS , many of the reds are cynical now about Taksin and his clan , the rice scheme seems the last straw on broken promises , many of the yellows are cynical of their leaders too ,, also the Legal restraints on ordinary people working class , middle class and peasant to be in the political game need reform , and both groups were fearful of underhand fanatics and agent provocateurs , finally and what they all most fear is the passing of the king he represents stability , they all worry that that will unleash chaos.

There was friendship and common cause amongst these diverse people which is the core of the Thai people , reform must come not from the elite top 2% but from the 98% of people and I believe that slow process is now in motion .modern technology is one driver .

I'm on-board with a lot that you write above ...

[Thai at Heart]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

Two brothers are sitting around at night drinking whiskey. A fight develops. One brother tells the other brother his performance is poor. Out comes the machete and results in one dead brother.

A hi-so is sitting at a street-side restaurant, eating. The owner comes out and accidentally spills fish sauce on the Hi-so. The hi-so is infuriated and returns later to fire shots into the restaurant owner's establishment.

A Thai man rapes and murders a babysitter, and then goes on to murder the two babies who were being tended. The mother of the murderer claims she could never control her son.

The stories are endless and unique in their own way.

--------------------

As the days of reading the media turn into weeks and months and years, I am becoming more and more aware of what these people are capable of at any given moment; ...homicide being the ultimate end of their bestial rages.

The thing is, here in Thailand, nothing bad rarely goes on that long, It usually flashes and goes away quite rapidly; but when it does flash, you don't want to be there, or to be the object of their passion.

I see the future the same as the past. Whatever bad is going to happen (even with these current events) will most likely not go on that long, and a semblance of peace will be restored after the thirst for blood and necks is satiated.

Scapegoats will be sacrificed... excuses will be given - and believed - certain people will disappear, and the spark taken out of the masses... and life will go on as it has been going on for thousands of years.

As the old geezer said, "Always have a way out... a haven for when the storm comes... as well as a plan to protect yourself and yours."

Thai social problems are not like hurricanes, they are more like tornadoes. If you are quick, you can see the path and avoid a lot. If you aren't quick, then have a hole to crawl in to until it passes over quickly.

Just my thoughts; and no, I am not too concerned because I have my bases covered.

Getting the shins out isn't the problem. It will be the total in ability for democrats to move their focus from the urban areas to the rural areas.

Agriculture and land need reform desperately.

[thailiketoo]

Getting the shins out isn't the problem. It will be the total in ability for democrats to move their focus from the urban areas to the rural areas.

Agriculture and land need reform desperately.

Land reform like North Vietnam?

[TheUsualGarbage]

Getting the shins out isn't the problem.

It's part of the problem. But if you knew why, and if you really understood what goes on behind the scenes, you'd see the futility of discussions such as these.

Quick question: what was the real reason for the coup which ousted Thaksin? If you think the answer is something that can be discussed in depth on a public forum, you don't know the answer.

[Berkshire]

I know less about the inner workings of Thailand than I do my home country of America. And I don't have a clue of what will become of the USA in 10 years, let alone Thailand. So the OP is asking for guesses from a bunch of foreigners who know less than I do. Understand.

What the Thais need is one visionary leader to come along, one who crosses party-lines, is incorruptible, wise, respected by young and old, strong yet compassionate, modern yet traditionalist, bold yet pragmatic, etc. I'm dreaming, I know.

[thailiketoo]

I know less about the inner workings of Thailand than I do my home country of America. And I don't have a clue of what will become of the USA in 10 years, let alone Thailand. So the OP is asking for guesses from a bunch of foreigners who know less than I do. Understand.

What the Thais need is one visionary leader to come along, one who crosses party-lines, is incorruptible, wise, respected by young and old, strong yet compassionate, modern yet traditionalist, bold yet pragmatic, etc. I'm dreaming, I know.

Madonna.

[TheUsualGarbage]

I know less about the inner workings of Thailand than I do my home country of America. And I don't have a clue of what will become of the USA in 10 years, let alone Thailand. So the OP is asking for guesses from a bunch of foreigners who know less than I do. Understand.

What the Thais need is one visionary leader to come along, one who crosses party-lines, is incorruptible, wise, respected by young and old, strong yet compassionate, modern yet traditionalist, bold yet pragmatic, etc. I'm dreaming, I know.

Madonna.

Keith Richards.

[Berkshire]

I know less about the inner workings of Thailand than I do my home country of America. And I don't have a clue of what will become of the USA in 10 years, let alone Thailand. So the OP is asking for guesses from a bunch of foreigners who know less than I do. Understand.

What the Thais need is one visionary leader to come along, one who crosses party-lines, is incorruptible, wise, respected by young and old, strong yet compassionate, modern yet traditionalist, bold yet pragmatic, etc. I'm dreaming, I know.

Madonna.

Well we are living in a material world.

[cup-O-coffee]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

Two brothers are sitting around at night drinking whiskey. A fight develops. One brother tells the other brother his performance is poor. Out comes the machete and results in one dead brother.

A hi-so is sitting at a street-side restaurant, eating. The owner comes out and accidentally spills fish sauce on the Hi-so. The hi-so is infuriated and returns later to fire shots into the restaurant owner's establishment.

A Thai man rapes and murders a babysitter, and then goes on to murder the two babies who were being tended. The mother of the murderer claims she could never control her son.

The stories are endless and unique in their own way.

--------------------

As the days of reading the media turn into weeks and months and years, I am becoming more and more aware of what these people are capable of at any given moment; ...homicide being the ultimate end of their bestial rages.

The thing is, here in Thailand, nothing bad rarely goes on that long, It usually flashes and goes away quite rapidly; but when it does flash, you don't want to be there, or to be the object of their passion.

I see the future the same as the past. Whatever bad is going to happen (even with these current events) will most likely not go on that long, and a semblance of peace will be restored after the thirst for blood and necks is satiated.

Scapegoats will be sacrificed... excuses will be given - and believed - certain people will disappear, and the spark taken out of the masses... and life will go on as it has been going on for thousands of years.

As the old geezer said, "Always have a way out... a haven for when the storm comes... as well as a plan to protect yourself and yours."

Thai social problems are not like hurricanes, they are more like tornadoes. If you are quick, you can see the path and avoid a lot. If you aren't quick, then have a hole to crawl in to until it passes over quickly.

Just my thoughts; and no, I am not too concerned because I have my bases covered.

Getting the shins out isn't the problem. It will be the total in ability for democrats to move their focus from the urban areas to the rural areas.

Agriculture and land need reform desperately.

Understood, but beg to differ. I take much more simplistic approach; the human element. The civilized, developed decent approach. I am sick of government, politics and religion these days. They all have absolutely nothing to do with helping your fellow man, or being man enough to tell a lazy bastard to get off his ass and help himself, and then helping him when he finally does do that.

Screw these political labels and let's begin acting like human beings. It doesn't take a committee to pay people, or build roads, or get aid to the sick, etc.

As Johnny Storm said, "Flame off".

[Thai at Heart]

Getting the shins out isn't the problem.

It's part of the problem. But if you knew why, and if you really understood what goes on behind the scenes, you'd see the futility of discussions such as these.

Quick question: what was the real reason for the coup which ousted Thaksin? If you think the answer is something that can be discussed in depth on a public forum, you don't know the answer.

Ah well. There are a myriad of reasons why they got rid of him.. Mostly centred around insuring their place at the trough for the future.

[Thai at Heart]

I think any serious attempt to "get the Shins" out will result in some pretty major violence, suppressing those deep genuine feelings of loyalty with violence will just make things worse and deepen the rifts long-term.

The best path forward is for the opposition to figure out that they need to get in the game, marshal their not inconsiderable skills and resources to manipulate a pseudo-democracy as the elites of our home countries do.

They just need to coordinate with each other better in order to outspend and outmaneuver the Shin machine, rather than remaining fragmented.

However unfortunately I think they're too arrogant to stoop to pandering to the common people, so can't see much stability unless they back down for another few years, at some point every empire crumbles. . .

Two brothers are sitting around at night drinking whiskey. A fight develops. One brother tells the other brother his performance is poor. Out comes the machete and results in one dead brother.

A hi-so is sitting at a street-side restaurant, eating. The owner comes out and accidentally spills fish sauce on the Hi-so. The hi-so is infuriated and returns later to fire shots into the restaurant owner's establishment.

A Thai man rapes and murders a babysitter, and then goes on to murder the two babies who were being tended. The mother of the murderer claims she could never control her son.

The stories are endless and unique in their own way.

--------------------

As the days of reading the media turn into weeks and months and years, I am becoming more and more aware of what these people are capable of at any given moment; ...homicide being the ultimate end of their bestial rages.

The thing is, here in Thailand, nothing bad rarely goes on that long, It usually flashes and goes away quite rapidly; but when it does flash, you don't want to be there, or to be the object of their passion.

I see the future the same as the past. Whatever bad is going to happen (even with these current events) will most likely not go on that long, and a semblance of peace will be restored after the thirst for blood and necks is satiated.

Scapegoats will be sacrificed... excuses will be given - and believed - certain people will disappear, and the spark taken out of the masses... and life will go on as it has been going on for thousands of years.

As the old geezer said, "Always have a way out... a haven for when the storm comes... as well as a plan to protect yourself and yours."

Thai social problems are not like hurricanes, they are more like tornadoes. If you are quick, you can see the path and avoid a lot. If you aren't quick, then have a hole to crawl in to until it passes over quickly.

Just my thoughts; and no, I am not too concerned because I have my bases covered.

Getting the shins out isn't the problem. It will be the total in ability for democrats to move their focus from the urban areas to the rural areas.

Agriculture and land need reform desperately.

Understood, but beg to differ. I take much more simplistic approach; the human element. The civilized, developed decent approach. I am sick of government, politics and religion these days. They all have absolutely nothing to do with helping your fellow man, or being man enough to tell a lazy bastard to get off his ass and help himself, and then helping him when he finally does do that.

Screw these political labels and let's begin acting like human beings. It doesn't take a committee to pay people, or build roads, or get aid to the sick, etc.

As Johnny Storm said, "Flame off".

Well, firstly, it is imperative for the social distance between bangkok and the rest of the country to be reduced.

People were telling me that bangkok looked down on the countryside 20 years ago. Now, its even worse.

[3NUMBAS]

basket case status .a lot of retirees do eventually go home and don't live out their days ,many have age related health problems and are forced to return home because health insurance gets higher as they get older .

or their money runs out

[wym]

Getting the shins out isn't the problem. It will be the total in ability for democrats to move their focus from the urban areas to the rural areas.

Agriculture and land need reform desperately.

Well, firstly, it is imperative for the social distance between bangkok and the rest of the country to be reduced.

People were telling me that bangkok looked down on the countryside 20 years ago. Now, its even worse.

No matter what anyone (Thais never mind we outsiders) think "needs" doing, bottom line IMO is simply that any group wanting to govern must make the common people FEEL like they are being at least listened to and progress being made toward making their lives a LITTLE better.

That's the genie's been let out of the bottle.

No need for real substantive changes, much less any fundamental re-working of how Thailand's society actually works, just the normal bread and circuses, go through the motions, PR spin pretend-democracy our own populations back home settle for.

As long as the opposition makes the tiniest efforts to pander to the rural poor they too can seize and hang onto the reigns of power and keep their snouts to the trough.

The fundamental problem is that they seem to think following the usual coup/rigged constitution pattern will continue to work. I personally don't think it will anymore, and that they are really playing with fire thinking that way.