Russia/Ukraine fiasco - Another nail in Thailand's coffin?

[fifthcolumn]

Russian economy seems to continue a generally negative trend.

Ruble also in negative downward trend, rather than up against thb and usd.

Seems last five years entire tourism industry has been kept afloat by the Russians and sex tourists.

What impact will coming sanctions have on the ruble, can't be good for Thailand.

Past high season pretty much a hard fail. Thailand will need ton weather a low season full of virtually no tourism and huge intractable political issues. While some of the smaller, immediate issues may be resolved by next November, the larger issues are here to stay.

Investors are getting out of emerging markets as well. Thailand at the fore. Govt debt, household debt, nation very overleveraged. Unlike other nations, Thailand really lacks ability to service debts or raise taxes. Watch condo market, already in a bit of crises.

[Naam]

keep on dreaming

[NeverSure]

keep on dreaming

Come on, Naam. You know a lot, especially internationally.

I would really appreciate your thoughts, and why.

[edwardandtubs]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

[NeverSure]

Russia like China is communist. In those countries there are the privileged few, and the poor masses.

In a capitalist country like the US, a poor man can rise to riches with an idea and hard work. The founders of Google were college kids as was Bill Gates - a college dropout. The founders of KFC, McDonald's, Walmart, etc. were all working stiffs with an idea and a strong work ethic.

What if strife in Russia caused even more well-off (by Russian standards) Russians to leave and come to Thailand?

[whoisyourdaddy]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

[edwardandtubs]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

So the arrival numbers are all part of a conspiracy? Do you have any statistics to back up your claims or did you just make them up on the spot?

[KittenKong]

As with any country, any significant drop in the value of the Russian currency or stock market, or slow-down of the general economy there, should in theory result in fewer Russians travelling abroad. (Though it may also result in some who used to go to more expensive destinations moving down-market and coming here instead.)

If fewer of them travel to Thailand I will certainly not suffer. Like soi dogs they just get in the way, make a lot of pointless noise and leave crap everywhere and if I never saw another one in my entire life it would be no loss to me. The same applies to every other nationality of mass market tourist also.

[MeowBundit]

Yesterday my friend sold some condo units in Pattaya to Russian buyer. Final price agreed with developer is 60.000.000 THB, which is nearly 2M USD. This was one-time payment by cashier cheque.

While a lot of cheap tourists can stop their "invasion" because currency fluctuation, a lot of investors will continue to withdraw money from Russia and invest here, and in anther countries too.

Even I personally dislike cheap tourists, I must to say they are one and only tourism-drivers especially in Pattaya. Mass market, nothing more than. And worries about currency is nothing, really. Anything determined by oil prices, so, exchange rate increased last year from 28 rub / usd to 40 rub /usd will be compensated by printing more russian banknotes... There is no any real problem until West need russian oil...

The only one real problem can be a progressing mental illness of Putin, who is trying to restore USSR at all cost. Steel curtain and no-travel for Russians still possible. But I hope he will go away soon to Hell. war with Ukraine is pointless suicide.

[djayz]

It's not the number of tourists that's important, but the amount of money they spend (or don't) while on holiday that is the main factor.

[Berkshire]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

Tourists are down in the short term due to the protests in Bangkok. Has nothing to do with the Ukraine. Chiang Mai has been inundated with tourists the past few months and signs are that the trend will continue. As for the OP's bizarre claim that the Russia/Ukraine crisis will somehow negatively impact Thailand--utter nonsense.

[Pib]

Durn, based on the OP's gloom and doom report on the Thai economy I'm packing up and leaving Thailand ASAP. Plus, I heard there are couple of countries in Africa with terrible economies and civil wars right now which will surely be the final nails in the Thai economy. Yeap, I hope to sell-off everything I own and catch a plane out by this weekend.

[Naam]

keep on dreaming

Come on, Naam. You know a lot, especially internationally.

I would really appreciate your thoughts, and why.

i'm not willing to waste time with people who present assumptions without any hard facts. in olden times it used to be fun to "cross swords" with the brigade which waves the banner "hopefully Thailand will go down the drain soon then my <insert currency> will buy more Chang."

but after 7½ years, dozens of threads and hundreds of postings "any time soon..." it got really boring

[hanno]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

So the arrival numbers are all part of a conspiracy? Do you have any statistics to back up your claims or did you just make them up on the spot?

My girlfriend works for a big OTA and, whilst numbers are down in BKK, they are up everywhere else. No much how this displeases the Thai bashers here, this is just a fact. And no, I am not connected to TAT or the tourism business in LOS.

[Berkshire]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

So the arrival numbers are all part of a conspiracy? Do you have any statistics to back up your claims or did you just make them up on the spot?

My girlfriend works for a big OTA and, whilst numbers are down in BKK, they are up everywhere else. No much how this displeases the Thai bashers here, this is just a fact. And no, I am not connected to TAT or the tourism business in LOS.

5th column, who'surdaddy et al are typical expat failures who can only hope and pray that Thailand fails. Then in their little pea-size brains, they can blame Thailand for their miserable lot in life.

[whoisyourdaddy]

5th column, who'surdaddy et al are typical expat failures who can only hope and pray that Thailand fails. Then in their little pea-size brains, they can blame Thailand for their miserable lot in life.

Sometimes i do not know what is funnier

People with "my girlfriend/wife says" or those without a single clue making statements which are clearly way over their heads.

For your information, i am a business owner and a pretty successful at that.

Have more money invested in Thai banks than you ever earned in your entire life, so if you going to talk about failures, i suggest you look in the mirror before opening your mouth again:thumbsup:

[whoisyourdaddy]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

So the arrival numbers are all part of a conspiracy? Do you have any statistics to back up your claims or did you just make them up on the spot?

My girlfriend works for a big OTA and, whilst numbers are down in BKK, they are up everywhere else. No much how this displeases the Thai bashers here, this is just a fact. And no, I am not connected to TAT or the tourism business in LOS.

Really, so your gf has access to all financial data? and statistics? I would love to see that, please do post it.

I do not work for big OTA, only have a number of businesses across hospitality and tourism sector and have endless emails from Priceline, Expedia, Asiarooms and few others, asking to offer some promotions to fill the rooms.

When doing availability checks across 4 major destinations, most hotels have plenty of availability.

When speaking to my drivers, all state "less business than before"

So i would really love to see the statistics to which your girlfriend who works for big OTA is referring to? especially for this year.

[hanno]

Really, so your gf has access to all financial data? and statistics? I would love to see that, please do post it.

I do not work for big OTA, only have a number of businesses across hospitality and tourism sector and have endless emails from Priceline, Expedia, Asiarooms and few others, asking to offer some promotions to fill the rooms.

When doing availability checks across 4 major destinations, most hotels have plenty of availability.

When speaking to my drivers, all state "less business than before"

So i would really love to see the statistics to which your girlfriend who works for big OTA is referring to? especially for this year.

They are her sales statistics and I sure as hell am not going to share them with, Mr. successful business man. Why do you become so personal so quickly ("People with "my girlfriend/wife says")? You must be really good in the tourism business accosting people like that. Maybe your customer base is falling, but maybe the Russians, Indians, and Chinese make more than up for it?

[whoisyourdaddy]

Really, so your gf has access to all financial data? and statistics? I would love to see that, please do post it.

I do not work for big OTA, only have a number of businesses across hospitality and tourism sector and have endless emails from Priceline, Expedia, Asiarooms and few others, asking to offer some promotions to fill the rooms.

When doing availability checks across 4 major destinations, most hotels have plenty of availability.

When speaking to my drivers, all state "less business than before"

So i would really love to see the statistics to which your girlfriend who works for big OTA is referring to? especially for this year.

They are her sales statistics and I sure as hell am not going to share them with, Mr. successful business man. Why do you become so personal so quickly ("People with "my girlfriend/wife says")? You must be really good in the tourism business accosting people like that. Maybe your customer base is falling, but maybe the Russians, Indians, and Chinese make more than up for it?

sales statistics

Nothing further needs to be said

If she is an account manager or associate, she would have access to sales of rooms filled for specific area ONLY.

If she is customer service, she would have no access to anything

If she is in accounting, she would not have a clue at all, as all payments to hotels and invoices are automated.

So what is her job?

Russian, Chinese and Indians are hardly any benefit to Thailand or its businesses.

They come on prepaid tours, do not spend any money and money they do spend, are spend in shops owned by their countrymen or the tour company itself and again ends up going back to origin.

Edited March 4, 2014 by whoisyourdaddy

[KittenKong]

Yesterday my friend sold some condo units in Pattaya to Russian buyer. Final price agreed with developer is 60.000.000 THB, which is nearly 2M USD. This was one-time payment by cashier cheque.

While a lot of cheap tourists can stop their "invasion" because currency fluctuation, a lot of investors will continue to withdraw money from Russia and invest here, and in anther countries too.

One man's investor may be another man's money-launderer or mafia refugee.

[Deez]

There must be several thousand nails in Thailand's coffin judging by thaivisa threads, yet the number of tourists just keeps on growing.

The number of tourists keeps on growing ONLY according to TAT and you , according to business owners and number of businesses closing down , numbers are decreasing

So the arrival numbers are all part of a conspiracy? Do you have any statistics to back up your claims or did you just make them up on the spot?

Arrival numbers and tourists are not the same. (except according to TAT). Arrivals include passengers arriving in thailand and catching a connecting flight. Ask anyone who's business relies on tourists if last year was better than 5+ years ago.

[geriatrickid]

I don't think the past high season was a "hard fail". It was packed in Hua Hin. My friends who work in Phuket said Samui, Krabi and Phuket had more people than last year and they were spending "big". As for the Russians, the issue with the Ukraine is nothing. Unless sanctions are imposed on Russia, and it is doubtful that will happen, the Russians will continue to travel. So what if there is a bit of a dip in the Russian economy? It won't hurt most of the people who are wealthy enough to travel. There are hundreds of thousands of wealthy Russians who won't be affected. The reality is that the EU is addicted to Russian natural gas and can't do without it. The London and Swiss bankers are addicted to Russian investors' money and won't do anything to upset the golden goose. Russia has everyone by the balls and they know it. Despite all the rhetoric, the USA needs Russia when it comes time to deal with Syria and Iran.

[hanuman2543]

Russia like China is communist. In those countries there are the privileged few, and the poor masses.

When Russia was part of the USSR but that was more than 20 years ago. Today it is a Constitutional Republic.

[Berkshire]

5th column, who'surdaddy et al are typical expat failures who can only hope and pray that Thailand fails. Then in their little pea-size brains, they can blame Thailand for their miserable lot in life.

Sometimes i do not know what is funnier

People with "my girlfriend/wife says" or those without a single clue making statements which are clearly way over their heads.

For your information, i am a business owner and a pretty successful at that.

Have more money invested in Thai banks than you ever earned in your entire life, so if you going to talk about failures, i suggest you look in the mirror before opening your mouth again:thumbsup:

Aaah, another TV billionaire. If you guys ever decided to pool your imaginary wealth, you could start a whole new country! Don't be hurt if I don't believe you, because I don't. All I know is that in real life, the farangs I've come across who have the most contempt and vile hatred of all things Thai almost always have financial problems. Of course, that wouldn't be you...according to you.

Back on topic, I suggested that the current tourism hit in BKK has more to do with internal political unrest than the "Russia/Ukraine fiasco." You seem to disagree. I'll leave it at that.

[Lancelot]

Thai tourisim is like a Gucci bag- a brand name with strong demand

What is the world's population? 7 billion? Thailand only needs a tiny fraction of that number to keep enjoying record setting tourist arrivals.

I recently saw an economic statistic from (Reuters If I recall correctly) that purports tourisim now contributes 10% to the Thai GDP. That's a sweet spot and a real money maker, you sell it and you've still got it

Sound familiar? And how about the gig for that little money maker?

Elasticity of demand

[Senechal]

I recently saw an economic statistic from (Reuters If I recall correctly) that purports tourisim now contributes 10% to the Thai GDP.

8% actually. But there's a positive downstream effect in retail which adds a bit more.

[whoisyourdaddy]

5th column, who'surdaddy et al are typical expat failures who can only hope and pray that Thailand fails. Then in their little pea-size brains, they can blame Thailand for their miserable lot in life.

Sometimes i do not know what is funnier

People with "my girlfriend/wife says" or those without a single clue making statements which are clearly way over their heads.

For your information, i am a business owner and a pretty successful at that.

Have more money invested in Thai banks than you ever earned in your entire life, so if you going to talk about failures, i suggest you look in the mirror before opening your mouth again:thumbsup:

Aaah, another TV billionaire. If you guys ever decided to pool your imaginary wealth, you could start a whole new country! Don't be hurt if I don't believe you, because I don't. All I know is that in real life, the farangs I've come across who have the most contempt and vile hatred of all things Thai almost always have financial problems. Of course, that wouldn't be you...according to you.

Back on topic, I suggested that the current tourism hit in BKK has more to do with internal political unrest than the "Russia/Ukraine fiasco." You seem to disagree. I'll leave it at that.

For anyone with half a brain, it makes no difference for the cause of less tourists, as question asked and answered was that there are less tourists instead of more.

As for my wealth, you do not need to concern yourself with that, stick to simple things you can comprehend

[MeowBundit]

Russia like China is communist. In those countries there are the privileged few, and the poor masses.

When Russia was part of the USSR but that was more than 20 years ago. Today it is a Constitutional Republic.

Exacly a one Great Ruler domain with his subordinates. All others just eat near table what falling from this table.

[sustento]

Russia like China is communist. In those countries there are the privileged few, and the poor masses.

Russia is theoretically a federal republic with two houses in the Federal Assembly although it's really an oligarchy.

[MeowBundit]

Yesterday my friend sold some condo units in Pattaya to Russian buyer. Final price agreed with developer is 60.000.000 THB, which is nearly 2M USD. This was one-time payment by cashier cheque.

While a lot of cheap tourists can stop their "invasion" because currency fluctuation, a lot of investors will continue to withdraw money from Russia and invest here, and in anther countries too.

One man's investor may be another man's money-launderer or mafia refugee.

Of course, but LD do not ask sources of origin in FET from Western clients too. When I move out of Russia, I sold all my assets. A lot of, if not almost all businessman's, regardless of wealth size and just a good well-payed employees, they all do not believe in the future and do not intend to keep money in Russia. Last year when I travel to HK, I saw nice lightbox in HK CBD, big enough and not cheap regarding cost of advertising in HK... This is about law firm who is help to open accounts and transfer money, all in Russian language. And this is HK, where rules are strict, in Thailand almost everyone can easily open account and transfer millions. A lot of ordinary tourists bought "shoeboxes" for 999.999 THB, just to save money. Nowadays real estate companies in Pattaya sells to Russians most of new projects, regardless of cost.