Missing Malaysia Airlines jet carrying 239 triggers Southeast Asia search

[NanLaew]

With pings 1 hour apart and cruising at 900 kph and the possibility that the last ping could have happened immediately before the crash or the aircraft crashed just shy of the the next, un-transmitted hourly ping, that's a crash zone up to 1,000 km long and as wide whatever margin of error they deduce from this 'doppler effect' ping data analysis. Due to many data streams and pings, the Air France flight crash zone was more easily pinned to a 65 km radius and that still took over two years to find.

[Carmine6]

The series of pings gave a certain distance, which could have only happened on two sets of arcs. Or I assume 4 sets of arcs, but the west side of the satellite was not in play.

How would the Doppler effect be different on the southern track versus the northern track? The shapes of the tracks did not appear to be symmetrical on a map, so I assume their satellites are not quite over the equator. Would that have anything to do with it? Is is related to the fact that the earth is not a perfect sphere and the satellite is slightly off the equator?

I'm not sure, but I imagine the situation so that the time delay of the pings first got shorter and then got longer. If the satelites are located on the equator, then it would mean that the plane has crossed the equator. If on the other hand the time delay would have increased all the time, it would have been an indication that the plane would have headed north.

I think you're right, though it wouldn't be the time delay, but the frequency shift of the signal if they're talking Doppler. Checking a map someone had done with satellite shown as a dot (which actually is right on the equator), the the plane was north of the equator early on.

Though your observation now brings up an issue. Had they released the possible sets of arcs for all the pings, rather than just the final arcs, I wonder if it wouldn't have looked more plausible that they went south earlier. By that I mean any manner of lines can be drawn through a series of arcs, but with a speed range there's a more likely path through them and I wonder if the northern one would appear to have a less straight path. As you note it would have appeared to have been moving toward, before heading away. But I think I answer my own question with that as that would be consistent with ongoing struggle or a pilot not quite sure where he's going. Which would have led to all manner of speculation.

[coma]

Joining the search HMAS Ocean Shield

[Chicog]

With pings 1 hour apart and cruising at 900 kph and the possibility that the last ping could have happened immediately before the crash or the aircraft crashed just shy of the the next, un-transmitted hourly ping, that's a crash zone up to 1,000 km long and as wide whatever margin of error they deduce from this 'doppler effect' ping data analysis. Due to many data streams and pings, the Air France flight crash zone was more easily pinned to a 65 km radius and that still took over two years to find.

It was much more difficult terrain though. This is (mostly!) an abyssal plain.

[Chicog]

I'm not sure, but I imagine the situation so that the time delay of the pings first got shorter and then got longer. If the satelites are located on the equator, then it would mean that the plane has crossed the equator. If on the other hand the time delay would have increased all the time, it would have been an indication that the plane would have headed north.

I think you're right, though it wouldn't be the time delay, but the frequency shift of the signal if they're talking Doppler. Checking a map someone had done with satellite shown as a dot (which actually is right on the equator), the the plane was north of the equator early on.

Though your observation now brings up an issue. Had they released the possible sets of arcs for all the pings, rather than just the final arcs, I wonder if it wouldn't have looked more plausible that they went south earlier. By that I mean any manner of lines can be drawn through a series of arcs, but with a speed range there's a more likely path through them and I wonder if the northern one would appear to have a less straight path. As you note it would have appeared to have been moving toward, before heading away. But I think I answer my own question with that as that would be consistent with ongoing struggle or a pilot not quite sure where he's going. Which would have led to all manner of speculation.

I understood from the article that they got the distance of the plane to the satellite from the time the signal took to travel the distance. This requires atomic clocks or GPS synced clocks on both ends.

Then used frequency shift to determine the relative speed between the plane and satellite. Combining these two they could determine the direction and speed of the plane (provided those did not change during the flight).

They also used data from other flights in their calculations. I don't think they'd announce this if they weren't certain.

[sandmike]

there's some very good posts on the subject of doppler calculations on the later pages (around pages 395 onwards) of the PPRuNe website thread on MH370 if posters are interested on reading further (apologies if mentioning other sites is not allowed).

Dopple shift is in the order of 0.00003%, but can be determined. Oilinki's post above is briefly as explained on PPRuNe

RIP all abord the flight

[khaosai]

Hi,

Regarding the cockpit voice recorder, it cannot be switched off by the pilots. It can only be erased and needs to be on the ground with the parking brake set. On the 777, it will record continuously, but only store the last two hours or flight. It therefore may or may not contain valuable information if found.

The satellite company have done a great job in narrowing down the search area, however it's still a difficult task ahead to find the wreckage. They cannot give up on the search for the data. They owe it to the families, the public and the industry.

Fire is the biggest threat to the industry as far as I am concerned, but what could possibly incapacitate a crew for 7 plus hours but allow the aircraft to continue flying ?

Fire, smoke or fumes in the flight deck will have both pilots immediately put on the oxygen masks. The autopilot will remain engaged unless it's not doing as expected. The aircraft will be pointed in the direction of the closest suitable airport. If that's not an option and the fire is uncontrollable then that decision becomes an off airport landing or ditching. The appropriate checklist will be called for. The crew will then inform the controllers of the situation. It's this lack of communication I find unusual, along with the loss of datalink and transponder information.

Having read the final report of the UPS crash on the outskirts of Dubai it certainly reminds us all of the threat posed by fire onboard. That aircraft did suffer from control issues, communication issues and subsequent loss of control so is therefore plausible with the Malaysian flight.

Has it been confirmed the aircraft tracked directly to waypoints in the north part of the straits of Mallaca ?

Did the aircraft maintain it's cruising level ?

It's been mentioned it went as high as 45000ft, low as 12000ft and flew west at an intermediate altitude of 29500ft.

So many variables which keep all scenarios plausible.

[hawker9000]

It's chilling to think of the possibility that any of the passengers might have remained conscious down to, or regained consciousness prior to, a water impact, if that's in fact what's happened. Having the overhead masks peter out with lethal levels of smoke or fumes in the cabin, or a plane full of dead bodies for several hours, or passengers awake and wondering what the heck is going on (for hours on end), all seem equally horrific. One way or the other, I'll bet Hollywood's already working on stories....

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

I simply can't imagine what the families have been going through.

[tropo]

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

If you think about it, the plane has gone down in the remotest area it could have reached in 8 hours. It's one of the most hostile, remotest areas on earth.

Coincidence? Or pointed in that direction?

[Chicog]

I simply can't imagine what the families have been going through.

Having worked with families in '04 trying to find lost loved ones in Phuket and Khao Lak, I can tell you that they will be distraught at not knowing, more than anything.

Even finding out that their relatives had died was something of a comfort as long as they had remains to bury.

Not ever knowing must be a nightmare that will never end.

My heart goes out to each and every one of them.

[3NUMBAS]

search called off due to bad weather ,planes cant take off .but ships can get there.

the under water 3d scape is alarming for a search so could give a boost to technology to find it .

obviously black boxes are no longer up to the job .

[coma]

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

If you think about it, the plane has gone down in the remotest area it could have reached in 8 hours. It's one of the most hostile, remotest areas on earth.

Coincidence? Or pointed in that direction?

It's quite obvious that there is more than meets the eye. From the time the aircraft switched from KL control to Vietnam control it has cast suspicion upon itself. It flew in a way that suggests it was being piloted manually. One cannot deny it. Switching off instruments, making controlled/evasive turns. Flown to ensure it evaded Thai airspace by flying just south of the border. Fascinatingly close in some areas. Too convenient for a auto pilot to plot by itself.

The ghost ship theory only works for me as a result of whatever went on in the skies above the Andaman Sea and the greater Bay of Bengal

I think the clue to it is working out what happened between the plane leaving Malaysian airspace to the west and the next turn it made.

No matter how one looks at it "the rat smells to high heavens".

P.S Malaysian daily brief on live shorly

[Chicog]

search called off due to bad weather ,planes cant take off .but ships can get there.

the under water 3d scape is alarming for a search so could give a boost to technology to find it .

obviously black boxes are no longer up to the job .

They haven't found them yet so how do you draw that conclusion?

Or are you talking about the ELT?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Has anybody canvased the idea of what happened to Egyptair Flight 667 in 2011 had also happened to MH370 at 35,000ft?

An electrical fire (ie arcing) in the avionics bay occurred at the gate on Flight 667. This burned through an oxygen feed line beside the co-pilot's position.

Oil rig worker Mike McKay sighted an aircraft to the west of his position in flames for 10-15 seconds before the fire went out.

What if pilots had already turned back due to an electrical fault and took a heading for Djakarta or Singapore and whilst dealing with electrical failure were suddenly confronted by fire in the cockpit?

Such a fire could have melted the fuselage skin like a blow torch and evacuated the pilot's emergency oxygen in seconds. This is like a cascading failure where pilots were pre-occuppied with one failure followed by a different type of failure.

[tropo]

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

If you think about it, the plane has gone down in the remotest area it could have reached in 8 hours. It's one of the most hostile, remotest areas on earth.

Coincidence? Or pointed in that direction?

It's quite obvious that there is more than meets the eye. From the time the aircraft switched from KL control to Vietnam control it has cast suspicion upon itself. It flew in a way that suggests it was being piloted manually. One cannot deny it. Switching off instruments, making controlled/evasive turns. Flown to ensure it evaded Thai airspace by flying just south of the border. Fascinatingly close in some areas. Too convenient for a auto pilot to plot by itself.

The ghost ship theory only works for me as a result of whatever went on in the skies above the Andaman Sea and the greater Bay of Bengal

I think the clue to it is working out what happened between the plane leaving Malaysian airspace to the west and the next turn it made.

No matter how one looks at it "the rat smells to high heavens".

P.S Malaysian daily brief on live shorly

I saw a comment by an experienced (Australian) pilot saying that it was very likely on auto-pilot once it headed south-west over the Indian Ocean.

[tropo]

search called off due to bad weather ,planes cant take off .but ships can get there.

the under water 3d scape is alarming for a search so could give a boost to technology to find it .

obviously black boxes are no longer up to the job .

It did surprise me that black boxes still only have power to last about 4 weeks - especially in the aftermath of the Air France crash.

[coma]

Has anybody canvased the idea of what happened to Egyptair Flight 667 in 2011 had also happened to MH370 at 35,000ft?

An electrical fire (ie arcing) in the avionics bay occurred at the gate on Flight 667. This burned through an oxygen feed line beside the co-pilot's position.

Oil rig worker Mike McKay sighted an aircraft to the west of his position in flames for 10-15 seconds before the fire went out.

What if pilots had already turned back due to an electrical fault and took a heading for Djakarta or Singapore and whilst dealing with electrical failure were suddenly confronted by fire in the cockpit?

Such a fire could have melted the fuselage skin like a blow torch and evacuated the pilot's emergency oxygen in seconds. This is like a cascading failure where pilots were pre-occuppied with one failure followed by a different type of failure.

That sort of damage I don't think it would have survived a journey to the Southern Indian Ocean

[steven100]

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

If you think about it, the plane has gone down in the remotest area it could have reached in 8 hours. It's one of the most hostile, remotest areas on earth.

Coincidence? Or pointed in that direction?

It's quite obvious that there is more than meets the eye. From the time the aircraft switched from KL control to Vietnam control it has cast suspicion upon itself. It flew in a way that suggests it was being piloted manually. One cannot deny it. Switching off instruments, making controlled/evasive turns. Flown to ensure it evaded Thai airspace by flying just south of the border. Fascinatingly close in some areas. Too convenient for a auto pilot to plot by itself.

The ghost ship theory only works for me as a result of whatever went on in the skies above the Andaman Sea and the greater Bay of Bengal

I think the clue to it is working out what happened between the plane leaving Malaysian airspace to the west and the next turn it made.

No matter how one looks at it "the rat smells to high heavens".

P.S Malaysian daily brief on live shorly

I tend to agree , logic is ... the plane was deliberately turned left , then right then left & so on .. so the pilot or an experienced civilian flew the plane , then after that , why has it flown 6 hrs south ? was there an intention to continue west .. however an altercation followed which resulted in the turn south and the plane filled up with toxic fumes but continued on auto pilot until plunging into the sea ? this is my theory.

Sent from my TR736 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Halion]

Aviation incidents of aircraft downing over water is not uncommon as this earth has water covering near 70% of its mass. There are, at any given time literally hundreds of aircraft both passenger,commercial and military flying over these seas and oceans with many flying in approximated positions for a period of time.

With the incredible technical development in this industry over the past few decades why has the potential location problems of a downed aircraft not been addressed.

In this technological world we live in today downed aircraft over water are located by primitive means, last know position, debris field and any eye witness accounts from vessels at sea.

Causative analysis of the crash relies very significantly on the Black Box recorders which are superbly manufactured and constructed to withstand physical abuse and water pressure and they are the key to definite cause on may occasions and the key to operational conditions up to the point of impact.

Why have the aviation industry not recognized the potential difficulty presented when an aircraft makes a crash landing in open water and in most cases it disintegrates and sinks taking this vital information to the bottom of the ocean.

The difficulties of recovery can be most significant dependent on several factors such as weather,depth and ocean topography, however, the most serious challenge is to locate the aircraft.(wreckage)

Why can aircraft not be fitted with a very miniature cylinder similar to the missile launch tube in a nuclear submarine .

The launch tube would contain a high frequency emitter which would be activate by water ingress and remotely ejecting this emitter buoy which is connected by a spooling devise so that the emitter would rise to the surface tethered to the aircraft wreckage. Such signals would be much easier to locate and the wreckage field would be in the direct vicinity.

A signal from a transmission on the surface would be significantly more traceable than a sub surface signal perhaps at significant depth. I can see no reason why in the technological world that this would not be a fairly simply innovation and would pay dividends in the reduction of asset implementation, search time and physiological stress resulting from a protracted ocean search. Just Thinking.

On a 200 + foot aircraft such a device could be contained in a protective launch tube less than a meter in length with a diameter of around 120 mm and weigh less than the average hand carry.

[canuckamuck]

Also why isn't the black box data on a cloud?

[EyesWideOpen]

Interesting tidbit from Yahoo news regarding the hard drive of the captain. Seems pretty important,

but have not seen this in other media outlets yet. From what I have read the FBI has been very

quiet about contents on the hard drive.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-plane-mh370-captains-wife-faces-interrogation-132703796.html#nwdzHxV

"The hard drive of his flight simulator seized from his home was being examined. It emerged that programs on it were deleted and that he used it to practice extreme landings, including on remote Indian Ocean islands, such as the US air base in Diego Garcia."

[Longtooth]

Joining the search HMAS Ocean Shield

Looks like that recovery vessel they built to recover the sunken Russian Nuke Sub. It was moored in the Carquinez Straights of California for a while after the mission. Can't remember the name, it was private to begin with. Did the US sell this to them?

[EyesWideOpen]

Joining the search HMAS Ocean Shield

Looks like that recovery vessel they built to recover the sunken Russian Nuke Sub. It was moored in the Carquinez Straights of California for a while after the mission. Can't remember the name, it was private to begin with. Did the US sell this to them?

This is an amazing looking ship. As a former captain, I am impressed by the 4000 horsepower stern thruster... The recovery ship for the Russian sub was the famous Glomar Explorer...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSF_Explorer

[Chicog]

Also why isn't the black box data on a cloud?

[canuckamuck]

Also why isn't the black box data on a cloud?

They already have all the hardware built in for sending signals by radio and by sat. They only need a few tweeks and cloud storage account,

[Chicog]

But it's only about 11kbps. I suggested just pinging a GPS loc every minute.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Asiantravel]

It's chilling to think of the possibility that any of the passengers might have remained conscious down to, or regained consciousness prior to, a water impact, if that's in fact what's happened. Having the overhead masks peter out with lethal levels of smoke or fumes in the cabin, or a plane full of dead bodies for several hours, or passengers awake and wondering what the heck is going on (for hours on end), all seem equally horrific. One way or the other, I'll bet Hollywood's already working on stories....

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

I simply can't imagine what the families have been going through.

And I believe what is adding further to this scepticism is the extraordinary way Malaysian authorities are refusing to hand over any information or evidence to Chinese journalists regarding their conclusion that the plane went down “ beyond reasonable doubt “in that location.

The official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party, the People's Daily, said many questions remained unanswered, including why the plane ended up in the Indian Ocean and what exactly the new satellite evidence was.

China has demanded that Malaysia hand over the satellite data that led to its judgement.

In a meeting overnight, deputy foreign minister Xie Hangsheng asked Malaysia's ambassador to China, Iskandar Bin Sarudin, to provide the "detailed evidence" that led to the conclusion, China's ministry of foreign affairs said.

"We demand the Malaysian side state the detailed evidence that leads them to this judgement, as well as supply all the relevant information and evidence about the satellite data analysis," Mr Xie said, according to a statement on the ministry's website.

This has angered the Chinese journalists to such a degree, the Chinese government is sending a special envoy to Malaysia – “Chinese President Xi Jinping will send a special envoy to Kuala Lumpur to consult with the Malaysian government over the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-25/malaysian-authorities-announce-mh370-lost-southern-indian-ocean/5328552

[F430murci]

But it's only about 11kbps. I suggested just pinging a GPS loc every minute.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I cannot be critical of anyone regarding plane or tracking and data systems on the plane as this is such a rare occurrence. Look how many miles are flown yearly and how many times this has happened with a commercial jet. Perhaps this will change the way certain things are done. That is human nature and the manner in which technology and products are developed.

[Chicog]

They said that about Air France and it cost $100 million. And now this. A simple change wouldn't break the bank.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[EyesWideOpen]

It's chilling to think of the possibility that any of the passengers might have remained conscious down to, or regained consciousness prior to, a water impact, if that's in fact what's happened. Having the overhead masks peter out with lethal levels of smoke or fumes in the cabin, or a plane full of dead bodies for several hours, or passengers awake and wondering what the heck is going on (for hours on end), all seem equally horrific. One way or the other, I'll bet Hollywood's already working on stories....

Go ahead & flame me, but I'm still just a little skeptical that all this actually ended way down there west of Perth... 'Guess I'm a hard case.

I simply can't imagine what the families have been going through.

And I believe what is adding further to this scepticism is the extraordinary way Malaysian authorities are refusing to hand over any information or evidence to Chinese journalists regarding their conclusion that the plane went down “ beyond reasonable doubt “in that location.

The official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party, the People's Daily, said many questions remained unanswered, including why the plane ended up in the Indian Ocean and what exactly the new satellite evidence was.

China has demanded that Malaysia hand over the satellite data that led to its judgement.

In a meeting overnight, deputy foreign minister Xie Hangsheng asked Malaysia's ambassador to China, Iskandar Bin Sarudin, to provide the "detailed evidence" that led to the conclusion, China's ministry of foreign affairs said.

"We demand the Malaysian side state the detailed evidence that leads them to this judgement, as well as supply all the relevant information and evidence about the satellite data analysis," Mr Xie said, according to a statement on the ministry's website.

This has angered the Chinese journalists to such a degree, the Chinese government is sending a special envoy to Malaysia – “Chinese President Xi Jinping will send a special envoy to Kuala Lumpur to consult with the Malaysian government over the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, state news agency Xinhua said on Tuesday.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-25/malaysian-authorities-announce-mh370-lost-southern-indian-ocean/5328552

Getting a bit off track, but there is something truly ironic for the Chinese government to demand truthful statements from another government..... :-)