Thai talk: One political battle ends, another - uglier one - begins

[webfact]

THAI TALK
One political battle ends, another - uglier one - begins
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Now that the Constitutional Court has ruled the February 2 election null and void, a new election will take place. End of conflict? Problem solved?

Not really. In fact, the verdict might signal the beginning of a new round of confrontation.

In fact, a few days after the charter court handed down the 6-3 ruling to invalidate the trouble-plagued election, red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan announced that the pro-government movement would begin a march on April 5. The move was supposed to pre-empt any possible military coup - but it isn't clear where the march, which is supposed to start in Pattaya where the rally is being held, will end.

At about the same, Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Council (PDRC), came up with another major decision: A huge demonstration to be held nationwide will be launched on March 29, one day before the scheduled senatorial election.

No, the PDRC isn't going to disrupt the election of senators. But Suthep was unequivocal that a new general election of MPs for the lower house would face another round of protest like the one on February 2, insisting that unless the premier quit and a people's reform council is formed, then any election would be the target of the PDRC's movement.

The promise of a new election, therefore, doesn't offer any hope of a solution to the long drawn-out conflict. Things will get worse, much worse, before they get any better.

What follows after the court verdict is for the Election Commission (EC) to first determine how to go about holding the new election. It would first have to consult the caretaker government on how a new decree is to be promulgated to fix the new election date. Some EC members have already suggested that it may take two to three months before all the complicated details are worked out and a new round of ballot-casting can be held.

Then there is the question of how the various political parties view the upcoming election. There is little doubt that Pheu Thai will go for it, convinced that it could win again without much difficulty.

The Democrat Party, which boycotted the last election, is in a dilemma. Some senior members are said to be in favour of rejoining the election process, arguing that staying out for a second time could be seen as a negative exercise that could cause the party serious damage. But the party leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has been quoted as saying in public on several occasions that the main opposition party would rejoin the election process only if the caretaker government quits. That doesn't appear to be an imminent possibility.

The Democrats will have a difficult time deciding whether they should be seen to be in cahoots with the PDRC, despite the fact that the ruling Pheu Thai Party has always accused the opposition and the PDRC of operating under the same group of politicians anyway.

The relationship between PDRC leader Suthep and the Democrat Party's leadership is a tricky one. Suthep, a former secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has publicly stated that he is a free campaigner and doesn't work within the Democrat framework. Some Democrats have privately complained that Suthep has clashed quite often with party leaders on several vital strategic issues.

If the Democrats decide to boycott the election again, they could face public censure. A legal interpretation will also have to be made on whether the party's refusal to take part in the last election can be considered a "first" boycott, now that the court has ruled the ballot-casting invalid. Under the law, any party that boycotts a general election twice in a row faces being disbanded.

But even if the new election proceeds, the Pheu Thai Party still faces a number of potentially damaging obstacles. If caretaker PM Yingluck Shinawatra is indicted by the Anti-Corruption Commission for her role in the rice-pledging policy, she would have to stand down. That would hit the party hard, even if one of the deputy premiers could replace her. Legal experts from the opposition party have now suggested that if the caretaker premier is slapped with such a serious charge, then the whole caretaker Cabinet would have to go.

If that is the case, a political vacuum could arise, playing into the hands of the PDRC, who would cite that as an opening to seek a "non-partisan" acting prime minister.

Pheu Thai has already made known its view that the Constitutional Court didn't have the authority to rule on the validity of the February 2 election in the first place. If it continues to stick to that position, the various political scenarios for the next few months could be highly complicated - and potentially explosive.

In other words, one phase of the battle has ended only to usher in a new battle that could get uglier than the first one.


-- The Nation 2014-03-26

[noitom]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

[chainarong]

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My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

As I said yesterday, Suthep has made he's own bed , now he must lie in it, in other words he can't pull back now , to do so would let the PTP have a win , they would round up all the protest leaders , they would disappear , the ordinary goings on of Thai Democracy, get rid of the obstacle and shut the problem up.

[BillyBobThai]

This is what you get when you have 8 year olds, mentally, running the country. Children love to play games.

[renaissanc]

We should not forget who is the first cause of the problems. It's all about Thakin wanting to get home whitewashed of all his crimes, including his awaiting court cases, and to be firmly placed in the seat of power. If there was no Thaksin, Thailand would be at peace. Suthep and the PRDC are the effect of Thaksin's greed, which has spread throughout his Pheu Thai people.

[Gunna]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid

The EC told YS & PT several times that an election on 02 Feb would end up being invalid, but they refused to listen because TS told them to go ahead anyway. He doesn't care if B3.8bt of the Governments money is wasted.

It was the Constitutional Court that ruled it invalid

They all from the judiciary and of course you know more about Thailands laws than the judges

[silent]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

Solution: Take out an arrest warrant for Suthep to bore him to death.

[h90]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

Maybe because most of the press also agrees that reforms are necessary and that it isn't the best idea to hand over everything to the Shinawatra clan.

[Chao Lao Beach]

The Sun come up, The sun goes down, Thailand self destructs and looses its post WW2 / Vietnam war investment advantage and the other ASEAN countries say thank you all the way to the bank.

[rreddin]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

That is not, and never has been, the function of a newspaper despite what they say to the contrary. Their functions are to sell advertising and earn revenue for the proprietor and to promote the proprietor's political and business interests. The Nation has a very clear political leaning, so it is not going to "call out" the Supreme Leader in waiting because they support him and his objectives.

Despite carefully managing the appearance of neutrality, the army has let slip they also support PRDC or at least their main objectives, but that revelation surprised nobody. It suits the Nation's political views to play up fears of violent confrontation and civil war because that helps make it more likely the army will intervene to bring about the result the Nation's proprietor supports.

[harkish]

The Sun come up, The sun goes down, Thailand self destructs and looses its post WW2 / Vietnam war investment advantage and the other ASEAN countries say thank you all the way to the bank.

True, true. ASEAN integration couldn't come at a worse time, as Thailand's bus is stuck in the mud, and Vietnam and others zoom ahead. It is a shame, as Thailand's democracy, flawed though it is, is much more developed than any of its neighbors. So democracy's poster child isn't looking so pretty for the neighbors, autocracy is looking just fine, thank you. And while the elites here may think it time to get back to a bit of good ole fashioned quasi-dictatorship, the genie is out of the bottle and trying that route will really just lead to disaster. They should look outside the sub-region, realize that broad-based development is dependent on dramatically improved education and social services, a more equitable sharing of power and wealth, and that the resulting rising tide would raise all boats, including those of the Bangkok elite. Sounds lovely, doesn't it. I just don't see the powers that be on either side figuring this out.

[harkish]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

That is not, and never has been, the function of a newspaper despite what they say to the contrary. Their functions are to sell advertising and earn revenue for the proprietor and to promote the proprietor's political and business interests. The Nation has a very clear political leaning, so it is not going to "call out" the Supreme Leader in waiting because they support him and his objectives.

Despite carefully managing the appearance of neutrality, the army has let slip they also support PRDC or at least their main objectives, but that revelation surprised nobody. It suits the Nation's political views to play up fears of violent confrontation and civil war because that helps make it more likely the army will intervene to bring about the result the Nation's proprietor supports.

This comment is dead on in terms of our local English language press - particularly with regard to the promotion of proprietor's political perspectives. Relying on The Nation or BKK Post as your main source of info for what the heck is going on in Thailand is really like Alice trying to figure out reality by studying the world through her looking glass. The Jabberwocky they speak in these papers is really all in some code, a code that leaves reality to the side. Both papers - and while I don't read Thai, I suspect the local language press is even less reality-based on any side - are highly tilted, with occasional and surprising exceptions. While I read the blogs and overseas views, talk to folks, and try to form my own vision of what is really going on, it is hard to know. So in the end, we move day to day, wondering and amazed at what happens next, in our Thai Wonderland.

[lemonjelly]

My lord, don't these Thais and these news writers see how foolish this entire circus is? Why doesn't the press just call them out? The press is making a drama about something like this preposterous ruling by the EC that an election was invalid. Suthep pontificates that there will be no election until reform is determined. Why doesn't the press call him out on this anti-democratic nonsense. He is dangerous to Thailand and the region. The Thai press should say so.

Try google..... "press freedom + Thaksin ....... they were dark days my friend.

[Why ask]

What if the PDRC were in alliance with the Democrats? PTP is in alliance with the red-shirts... so be it! What's the problem?