Thai 'Red Shirts' warn of civil war if government falls

[myluckythai]

I think it will infuriate more then the supporters of Yingluck and Thaksin. There are plenty of "normal" everyday citizens in Thailand that want to vote for their leader. AKA a democracy.

Yes and they can, where is the problem?

Suthep want reforms and than immediately ELECTIONS. I think elections is that where you vote.

Beside in Thailand you don't vote for your leader (like in USA) you vote for parties and the parliament chooses the leader

..... not so sure where your idea comes from that it looks promising and democratic to ovethrow a government , hijack government offices, tv stations and install an unelected bunch of friends.....how does this tell you they want the right thing? And the red support will just go away IF sutheps will keep his word. or really it isn't suthep (puppet) but rather his masters who operate in the shadows.....sounds promising. let's trust their reform will be good for the country>>>not

[davidmann]

civil war .where do we sign up ,how much do we get paid a day ,no chance

[Equalizer]

a lot of wishful thinking on a few newbies on here - use you brain, if suthep was ever gonna be arrested, it would have happened months ago.

Exactly, would you not agree this is precisely the fuel that is lighting the fire. Like it or not the RED SHIRTS are by definition the elected party. In the eyes of the democratic world the actions of the YELLOW SHIRTS and the establishment in general is blatant political dictatorship.

[ozvenison]

The majority of the population want their democratic vote, after having it stripped from them.... again... Because they just won't vote in the 'correct' people, d@mn them.

I would like to see an election where only people that pay taxes, eligible students and senior citizens get to vote. The results would be astounding I'm sure.

Hardly 150 years ago it did work similar in Europe. Only those paying tax were allowed to vote. Obviously taxpayers had a personal stake in government as they paid tax. Of course women were not allowed to vote in those days.

And women shouldn't have the right to vote now, what do they know! should be in the kitchen getting my dinner ready

Oh shit, sorry dear I wasn't talking about you

And you can stop hitting me now ... please

[bkkjames]

a lot of wishful thinking on a few newbies on here - use you brain, if suthep was ever gonna be arrested, it would have happened months ago.

The number of posts does not mean they don't understand what's going on in Thailand. Some people have a life and don't have time to post 15,000 times like you and some may have just joined and lived here longer than you. And just because you post often doesn't mean you understand anything.

True enough i suppose, but i dont see suthep being arrested anytime soon. Send me a pm when he does....

Sent from my LG-P970

[aripengu]

In my opinion both sides are threatening and trying to get in a strong position before talks are held, civil war is not very likely since the different clans in the game mainly care about money and power, the people who support them are just a "necessary evil".

[belg]

what are they playing at / with ?

farmers are only interested in being PAID

and the rice beeing sold

politicians are only interested in filling their pockets

police is only interested in getting all possible scrapings on the side, in stead of doing their job

[Thaiready]

These repeated warnings of dire consequences from the red shirts have a whiff of desperation about them. They are in a corner and seem to know this. They have lost the battle of numbers because their core support is not motivated and seems divided. The momentum and the passion is with the other side. If the army took over tomorrow i doubt there would be much more than a few squeals. Time will tell i suppose.

The only squeals will be from the yellow pigs when they lose the next Election.....you can bank on that

[RichBKK]

Don't think enough of the PTP voting base are really bothered enough for that. The government screwed up all the policy implementations they won the election partly on the back of, especially but not exclusively the rice scheme too much to really enthuse enough numbers for anything of that sort

As for the charges against members of the cabinet, it's plus ca change for many. So what else is new?

Be another election eventually and we all have the joys of seeing the loop Thailand has been in for the past 40 years repeat itself all over again. Can't wait

[Lupatria]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

I wonder why nobody is talking about this: if there is a civil war, the winning side (majority- whoever that is or will be) needs to stage a serious cleanup, this may end up in a Pol Pot style blood bath and it will turn out to be very messy.

However, the decades long procedure only changing the top clans ruling and robbing this country may end once and for all after that.

[SICHONSTEVE]

So Jatuporn is now officially threatening the security of the state by promising a civil war. Isn't it time for the army to step in and protect the state, as they are sworn to do?

Yup.

Stepping in and aiding in the arrest of Suthep, while cleaning their thugs off the street would be most welcome by everyone.

Elections take place and let the people democratically vote in their leaders.

Yes, when the times right - but not now!!

[stoffel45]

Intelligence reports stated that 4 years ago, the man who is behind all this conflict, from start to finish, was seen talking with military leaders and arms suppliers in Cambodia.

If he is able to arm his Red Army, for it has become ever more communist in every way - and I mean every way - then he could easily start his war through his surrogates, like Jatuporn.

It is clear that the "Establishment" is afraid of strong action.

The anti-Democratic forces of both Suthep, whom I think is a not very bright chap overcome with vainglorious ideas of patriotism, and the Reds, should be told to disband immediately by the Army. The Police should be kept in their barracks as they are clearly heavily compromised.

What the country needs now, any country in this situation, is a period of calm and stability. I believe with great regret, that the only institution capable of doing this is the Army.

The last time the Army had established a good degree of calm. Then Thaksin set his dogs on the people of Bangkok.

If it takes 5 years for a peaceful 'interregnum" whose main objectives should be Peace and Stability and a return to Law and most of all - Order and getting the belligerents around the table, it is a short term and worthy goal.

Nobody decent wants a military Government - plainly they are just not good at it - it is not what they are trained for.

However, the current impasse paid for largely, by a bitter and jealous Taksin who is prepared to have thousands, perhaps millions die so that he can have his spot in the limelight again, is not tolerable.

Alas, in Thailand there is NO leadership of the people.

Though elections have been held - they have been compromised by corruption and such as the rice buying votes scam.

Like so many on these forums (!) I do not claim any deep insights into the Thai ways - like many I do want the very best for all of them - regardless of the colour of their shirts.

I do not believe this is possible whilst Taksin is still alive.

[slipperylobster]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

Quite easily said by someone who has no stake of claim in this land.

Even easier because you will not be on the front line.

[MaxLee]

Intelligence reports stated that 4 years ago, the man who is behind all this conflict, from start to finish, was seen talking with military leaders and arms suppliers in Cambodia.

If he is able to arm his Red Army, for it has become ever more communist in every way - and I mean every way - then he could easily start his war through his surrogates, like Jatuporn.

It is clear that the "Establishment" is afraid of strong action.

The anti-Democratic forces of both Suthep, whom I think is a not very bright chap overcome with vainglorious ideas of patriotism, and the Reds, should be told to disband immediately by the Army. The Police should be kept in their barracks as they are clearly heavily compromised.

What the country needs now, any country in this situation, is a period of calm and stability. I believe with great regret, that the only institution capable of doing this is the Army.

The last time the Army had established a good degree of calm. Then Thaksin set his dogs on the people of Bangkok.

If it takes 5 years for a peaceful 'interregnum" whose main objectives should be Peace and Stability and a return to Law and most of all - Order and getting the belligerents around the table, it is a short term and worthy goal.

Nobody decent wants a military Government - plainly they are just not good at it - it is not what they are trained for.

However, the current impasse paid for largely, by a bitter and jealous Taksin who is prepared to have thousands, perhaps millions die so that he can have his spot in the limelight again, is not tolerable.

Alas, in Thailand there is NO leadership of the people.

Though elections have been held - they have been compromised by corruption and such as the rice buying votes scam.

Like so many on these forums (!) I do not claim any deep insights into the Thai ways - like many I do want the very best for all of them - regardless of the colour of their shirts.

I do not believe this is possible whilst Taksin is still alive.

In short:

Yingluck may be out, but that doesn't really matter as long as the REAL PM aka the man in Dubai pulls the strings and replaces lil' sis with the commander of the Rice Pledging scam,... thus with the Election-Collection-Commission manipulated, bribed and bought, I don't think that the Thaksinistas will just lose so easily with enough brainwashed supporters on their side.

In short, Thaksin wins the elections and everything is back to square zero...

... like it or not, but the Legacy will never die so easily...

[MGP]

Guess who is going to support those mad people if there's a conflict. At the Red Shirt camp yesterday there were several Cambodian flags.

Not many Thai flags.

Edited May 11, 2014 by MGP

[Strangebrew]

Beware those who rattle sabers For you might get what your asking for. The Army protects the King threatning Civil War is threatning the King think about What your saying.

[Local Drunk]

Doesn't the headline tell the Red supporters here anything at all?

[IamNoone88]

As with the PRDC, such talk clearly demonstrates that they are not fit to be part of any administration. Not once have I heard of Nation building just talk of destruction. Thailand's lost decade.

[Piichai]

These repeated warnings of dire consequences from the red shirts have a whiff of desperation about them. They are in a corner and seem to know this. They have lost the battle of numbers because their core support is not motivated and seems divided. The momentum and the passion is with the other side. If the army took over tomorrow i doubt there would be much more than a few squeals. Time will tell i suppose.

The only squeals will be from the yellow pigs when they lose the next Election.....you can bank on that

With decent reforms it'll matter a lot less who wins the elections.

Edited May 11, 2014 by Piichai

[wolf5370]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

I wonder why nobody is talking about this: if there is a civil war, the winning side (majority- whoever that is or will be) needs to stage a serious cleanup, this may end up in a Pol Pot style blood bath and it will turn out to be very messy.

However, the decades long procedure only changing the top clans ruling and robbing this country may end once and for all after that.

It's not about numbers, never is. No matter what the Red camp wish. It is all about might - the side the army eventually sides with. Sure there will be dissenting soldiers, but likely to be minor (the punishment will be too severe for many to risk). Take any revolution anywhere, ever, it has always been so.

Go back to the peasant's revolt in 1381, by far the greatest number was the peasants (military was diminished having been through both the black death and the 100 years war) - it took just 4000 soldiers to quell it though - they simply hunted down and executed the leadership (under insurrection and treason) - and it fell apart. Forward to the French Revolution (1789), it was the army turning on the aristocracy that won it - incidentally, this was caused mostly by the problems in the army at the time (officers were heavily aristocracy based and the regulars lived in very poor conditions comparatively - and often went without pay and meagre rations), and the fact that the King had disbanded the regular army from Paris - from "Under pressure from leaders in the city, who argued that the presence of the army outside Paris was a source of panic and hysteria among Parisians, the King disbanded the army."

One would expect that the army will side with whatever the government is at the time - but will not allow armed insurrection in the streets (and it would be folly to name protests recently - 2010 or now - as insurrection). There is an element of die throwing here, but the odds are stacked against a successful Red success with respect to armed insurrection - which is what it is until it is won or lost and given a fancy title by history.

[richard10365]

If the red shirts make up the majority of Thailand, compared to Bangkok's few, it will be a very short civil war.

[Thaiisnotrequired]

Any body remember Spike Milligan?

[wolf5370]

I do not argue that the PTP voters feel cheated. Regardless of their leadership's many faults and obvious transgressions, the bottom line as far as ordinary fold go is that their votes were repeatedly put aside, ignored, trashed and so on and so forth.

It is also quite obvious that unless Thailand does an about turn, their voice will become more dominant in the future. Hard to argue with demographics. It may not necessarily be as PTP or UDD, and hopefully at some point free of Thaksin's shadow.

That said, I don't recall talk about cancelling health care, and doubtful that any future government could survive politically cancelling minimum wages as well. There are probably better ways to make the two sustainable, but scraping them outright isn't all that likely.

There's much to be said about the future of democracy on a global level, but that may be a bit off topic.

The real problem is education, or lack thereof. The next government must implement real educational reform, and it must extend the entire breadth of the system from kindergarten/pre-school all the way to university level PhD and post doc. The problem is that it will take at least a generation for it to bear fruit.

In the meantime, the red shirts/UDD can solve their own problems themselves. It is actually quite easy, but it willl not bring the instant solutions they want. They need to think of the long term goals and not of the immediate instant gratification.

1: Form their own political party

2: Abandon Thaksin (they do not need him) and the color red

3: Campaign on a platform that is meaningful to the people in the provinces.

4: Find some good honest people from within their own ranks, preferably with some charisma, who will work for the people and the country and not be there simply to line their own pockets.

5: Win an election (honestly, no vote buying) and form an honest government.

They can do it. They just need to get off their asses and work for it. If they have a good platform they can rule the roost easily as the rural folks far outnumber those in Bangkok.

All it will take is a few good people to come forward and start the process. The time is now.

For pretty much the same reasons, non of the political leaderships are awfully keen on people getting better education.

Hard to see a monumental change in the making on this front, as interests remain in place.

Laying it all on the Red-shirts, or PTP voters is an easy way out.

The Democrat Party ought to do some soul searching and reform itself and the way it related to the electorate.

Maybe abandon the backing of old school elites, maybe expanding their appeal to areas beyond Bangkok and the South.

Corruption, vote buying, respecting opinion and rights of other side....both got a lot to improve.

Yet a long way to go, for Thailand.

Think you missed his point. It is not about "laying it on the Reds" - Forget the current parties out there. Many people liked the original Red policies before they became overtly Thaksin polarised and replaced with populist policy. There was, and is, need for better representation of the masses. However, the fly-in-the-ointment now is that the Reds have the deadweight of the Shins dragging them under, and the Dems are the old guard who never really did anything either - and no one want's the third choice of pre-73 junta! So, the options are a return to the cycle that has been recurring since constitutional monarchy was achieved here, or a new party of integrity for the people (what the Reds could have been).

A prime example for this - although far less extreme and important as it is now, here - was the old labour in the UK back in the early 80s and before. They were utterly unelectable because of the nightmare they wrought in the 70s, because of the block vote control of the unions and the socialist underbelly. Even when Thatcher was ousted by her own party after 17 years, John Major (same party - Conservative) still won the election, against all the polls. Along came Blaire and the New Labour party, and out go the Torries - for the next two decades nearly. Policies the people wanted, even when they were old Labour policies, but with a broken block vote (freedom from the unions) and more central line (away with the socialism).

The Reds could be an answer to the country's woes - but only if they shed the Shins, much of the UDD leadership, find some integrity and return to core values and policies. The Dems would be forced to change or disband as they would still symbolise old corruption instead of new integrity (regardless of the truthfulness or not of that fact). For this (New Reds) to be accepted, they would need new leadership, and a new name - Phoenix Party perhaps .

Many of us have said the same for a long time now - well before these troubles. Yet especially amongst the pro-Reds here, Thaksin is the answer - even though he represents all that the Reds should be against, elitist (royal blood no less), wealth, personal interest and dodgy history - and that is pre-2001, let alone what happened since.

It remains to be seen however, if the Red/UDD "party" have the ability to change and or split - that depends on just how flexible/hardline/authoritarian the leadership is - I have my suspicions that currently such change would be allowed to happen - and that is what is holding it back in my opinion.

[wolf5370]

If the red shirts make up the majority of Thailand, compared to Bangkok's few, it will be a very short civil war.

Try reading history and see if numbers make a different in insurrection. How does a hand made single shot pistol compare to a tank?

[zydeco]

I do not argue that the PTP voters feel cheated. Regardless of their leadership's many faults and obvious transgressions, the bottom line as far as ordinary fold go is that their votes were repeatedly put aside, ignored, trashed and so on and so forth.

It is also quite obvious that unless Thailand does an about turn, their voice will become more dominant in the future. Hard to argue with demographics. It may not necessarily be as PTP or UDD, and hopefully at some point free of Thaksin's shadow.

That said, I don't recall talk about cancelling health care, and doubtful that any future government could survive politically cancelling minimum wages as well. There are probably better ways to make the two sustainable, but scraping them outright isn't all that likely.

There's much to be said about the future of democracy on a global level, but that may be a bit off topic.

The real problem is education, or lack thereof. The next government must implement real educational reform, and it must extend the entire breadth of the system from kindergarten/pre-school all the way to university level PhD and post doc. The problem is that it will take at least a generation for it to bear fruit.

In the meantime, the red shirts/UDD can solve their own problems themselves. It is actually quite easy, but it willl not bring the instant solutions they want. They need to think of the long term goals and not of the immediate instant gratification.

1: Form their own political party

2: Abandon Thaksin (they do not need him) and the color red

3: Campaign on a platform that is meaningful to the people in the provinces.

4: Find some good honest people from within their own ranks, preferably with some charisma, who will work for the people and the country and not be there simply to line their own pockets.

5: Win an election (honestly, no vote buying) and form an honest government.

They can do it. They just need to get off their asses and work for it. If they have a good platform they can rule the roost easily as the rural folks far outnumber those in Bangkok.

All it will take is a few good people to come forward and start the process. The time is now.

For pretty much the same reasons, non of the political leaderships are awfully keen on people getting better education.

Hard to see a monumental change in the making on this front, as interests remain in place.

Laying it all on the Red-shirts, or PTP voters is an easy way out.

The Democrat Party ought to do some soul searching and reform itself and the way it related to the electorate.

Maybe abandon the backing of old school elites, maybe expanding their appeal to areas beyond Bangkok and the South.

Corruption, vote buying, respecting opinion and rights of other side....both got a lot to improve.

Yet a long way to go, for Thailand.

Think you missed his point. It is not about "laying it on the Reds" - Forget the current parties out there. Many people liked the original Red policies before they became overtly Thaksin polarised and replaced with populist policy. There was, and is, need for better representation of the masses. However, the fly-in-the-ointment now is that the Reds have the deadweight of the Shins dragging them under, and the Dems are the old guard who never really did anything either - and no one want's the third choice of pre-73 junta! So, the options are a return to the cycle that has been recurring since constitutional monarchy was achieved here, or a new party of integrity for the people (what the Reds could have been).

A prime example for this - although far less extreme and important as it is now, here - was the old labour in the UK back in the early 80s and before. They were utterly unelectable because of the nightmare they wrought in the 70s, because of the block vote control of the unions and the socialist underbelly. Even when Thatcher was ousted by her own party after 17 years, John Major (same party - Conservative) still won the election, against all the polls. Along came Blaire and the New Labour party, and out go the Torries - for the next two decades nearly. Policies the people wanted, even when they were old Labour policies, but with a broken block vote (freedom from the unions) and more central line (away with the socialism).

The Reds could be an answer to the country's woes - but only if they shed the Shins, much of the UDD leadership, find some integrity and return to core values and policies. The Dems would be forced to change or disband as they would still symbolise old corruption instead of new integrity (regardless of the truthfulness or not of that fact). For this (New Reds) to be accepted, they would need new leadership, and a new name - Phoenix Party perhaps .

Many of us have said the same for a long time now - well before these troubles. Yet especially amongst the pro-Reds here, Thaksin is the answer - even though he represents all that the Reds should be against, elitist (royal blood no less), wealth, personal interest and dodgy history - and that is pre-2001, let alone what happened since.

It remains to be seen however, if the Red/UDD "party" have the ability to change and or split - that depends on just how flexible/hardline/authoritarian the leadership is - I have my suspicions that currently such change would be allowed to happen - and that is what is holding it back in my opinion.

FWIW, as someone who can't vote, I would buy into this. Just as long as the Reds did dump their Communist leadership and ceased with the Khmer Rouge type threats ("Get Rid of the Educated Elite"). There should be more justice for all segments of society. Suthep is NOT the answer. And Abhisit is much too smarmy and beholden to yet more trough feeders. In fact, were someone to take away all the troughs in this country, probably the entire political class would end up on the side of the road with all four in the air.

[Piichai]

If the red shirts make up the majority of Thailand, compared to Bangkok's few, it will be a very short civil war.

But they don't. Red Shirts are roughly 7% of the population.

[Greg Nixon]

That is a serious threat of violence and strongly implicates the red shirts concerning past violence.

[mikecat]

It is quite clear that a democratically elected government is slowly being undemocratically removed. Even after they offered the dummy spitters a second chance. The dummy spitters however took their dummys home and refused to play. Democracy indeed.

Two other things are clear, the army is largly staying away because they know that the majority of the nation are not sympathetic to the Yellows and clearly understand that Suthep is a power crazy fool.

If someone had a bit of courage to take this raving lunatic (Mr the final battle) Suthep of the streets a resolution of some sort would be reached.

I am waiting for someone to ask Suthep what he has done with all the money. Maybe he's stashing it away for a quick exit to Dubai.

[mrtoad]

Wow, last time I was there, was April 5th and it was a low density crowd, that peaked for the evening speeches at 50k.

Yeh, I was at that rally. I was about 700m from the front stage on the left (I'm the one in red ), sadly this also meant I was away and didn't have a computer and internet. I've only had full internet for the last few days, and been on 3G smartphone.

Peak was about 8:30pm-10pm on first day, I estimate about 50k (based on density, it was a 1.25km road, with about 2x25m wide sections, so lets say 20m+20m to allow for a bit for stalls and toilets. Low density crowd, the Bangkokpost and Nation drone photos look like a high density 4/m2 but that was density near the front stage and each of the repeater TV screens, between these it was sparse, so overall go for the low density 1/m2 = 1* 40*1250 = 50k tops.

There were some in the park, and some in the east side of the road, but I'm taking those as 0, well at least small enough not to significantly affect a total.

During the quiet of Sunday afternoon it was sparse, 5k to 10k tops. That group was the people who came from Issan, Chiang Mai and some from the South. They had come far for the whole weekend and were camping in the park. During the night it filled up with Central and Bangkok folk (I ask about 20 people, none were Burmese or Cambodia).

Now it's 6pm and it's already full and far far denser.

aska-font.jpg

And not 1 per m2, those walkways across the canal are about 1m wide, thats more like 3-4 people/m2.

The overspill areas is in the top where the circle is, and the east side of Aska road. How many do they have in those?

aksa-back.jpg

They've changed the format too, the left side has no stalls now.

1.25km road * (25+20) * 4 people/m2 = 225,000

Nice photoshop. Better than the last time.

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[The Deerhunter]

So Jatuporn is now officially threatening the security of the state by promising a civil war. Isn't it time for the army to step in and protect the state, as they are sworn to do?

And call up his bail again. He was warned to keep a low political profile by the judge, wasn't he?