Thai poll shows over 75 percent of the people support martial law

[AleG]

Remember all those times an army takeover by any name ended peacefully with no blood spilt? Neither do I.

Short or selective memory? The 2006 coup was bloodless.

55555 good one. All coups and military intervention have begun bloodlessly or nearly so.

Would you like to try to answer the question again? I'll repeat it, and my comment, only this time with emphasis for the hard-of-reading:

Remember all those times an army takeover by any name ended peacefully with no blood spilt? Neither do I.

To put it in shorter, blunter (if less inclusive) questions. Do you remember 1973? Do you remember 1981? Do you remember 1976? Do you remember 1992? Do you remember 1985? Do you remember 2010?

So do I. And to be clear, I remember the coups/intervention that preceded them, in all their bloodless glory, some of which certainly had more than 75% approval, although polls weren't around for most of them.

Something I found interesting and probably pertinent. On Tuesday night and Wednesday night the crowds at the two main rallies in Bangkok and Thon Buri got noticeably bigger. I think those folks are quite willing to wait for a while, but even more of them are interested and invested in the outcome now. And when (not if) the outcome is not the one that one rally or both rallies want, that will start the REALLY dangerous time.

Answer me this: If a yellow or a red rally or both rallies just stand up and start marching and defy the army, what do YOU think the army will do when 10 to 50 thousand people do that defying? I'm not saying this will happen, but the mood is there. Just like it was there over and over and over again when the green-clad know-nothing humourless witless military twits got involved over the people's interests.

The army lost its one chance to break up those rallies and send people home and I think that was one of 357 stupid things that happened Tuesday. There is no chance to disperse them now, not bloodlessly.

i.e. that martial law is very popular, and where it isn't popular, it would do no harm. Clearly false, the soldiers were already on the streets before martial law, so it doesn't increase security. It just increases the military powers plus permits censorship.

Respectfully, and as one of the 11.71%, the poll did not ask IF martial law increased security, a fact no one even you and me cannot know for some time to come. The poll asked if the respondents believed it would. And if you have been in Thailand and not cooped up in a room for the last two days, there is no doubt that a huge percentage of people believe just that. I find 75% entirely credible. There always are 11.71% of us troublemakers of course.

No poll EVER tests a fact. It asks for opinions. If you don't think somewhere around 75% of Thais basically approve of this martial law declaration... well, you don't but you're wrong.

..

The 2006 coup ended when the military government held elections and PPP, another Thaksin's party, won the election. I suggest you come to grips with reality.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Lets go through these:

- 50.93 percent of 1264 = 643.76 people (644 people would be 50.95) Impossible

- 25.75 percent of 1264 = 325.48 people (325 people = 25.71%) Impossible

- 11.49 percent of 1264 = 145.23 people (145 people out of 1264 = 11.47%) Impossible

- 7.14 percent of 1264 = 90.25% ( 90 people = 7.12%) Impossible

- 4.66 percent of 1264 = 58.9 people (59 people = 4.67%) Impossible

So these numbers don't work, it represents more a message they want to portray rather than an actual poll. So what's the message they want to portray?

The poll showed that 75.95 percent agreed with the martial law because it would help prevent violence and people feel more secured whereas 12.34 percent said that with or without martial law the political conflict would not be resolved and protests would continue as normal.

i.e. that martial law is very popular, and where it isn't popular, it would do no harm. Clearly false, the soldiers were already on the streets before martial law, so it doesn't increase security. It just increases the military powers plus permits censorship.

The 11.71 percent who opposed the law said that the martial law was unjustified because there was no riot or serious violence to justify the imposition of the law. Moreover, the law will give a false impression that a coup has taken place.

Aww, those wacky academics and lawyers pointing out it's illegal to declare martial law across the country using a Section 4, and its also illegal when there is no insurghency/riots to quell. Thankfully they are a tiny minority, according to this fictional poll we just made up.

It is standard practice to quote the total number of respondents in an opinion poll, and it is also normal that not every respondent answers every question. So long as every question published has enough respondents to qualify for the predetermined level of confidence, that too is fine. All that data should be available in any published report but is rarely, if ever, published by newspapers.

This doesn't mean the poll wasn't massaged or biased, it just means one can't tell from the simple arithmetic of the published percentages.

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Edited May 22, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[Strangebrew]

That poll also reflects that the 25% who don't approve are the ones who are corrupt and fear there end is near

[love1012]

It is only a coup if they cancel elections and appoint a PM. We have to wait and see.

even then......it would be preferable to leaving the corrupt PTP rabble who've bribed and threatened their way into power under the orders of a corrupt criminal and then totally made a mess of the whole thing leaving 28 dead and farmers desperate for their livelihoods - if this is martial law - it looks better than red shirt democracy!!

[love1012]

Lets go through these:

- 50.93 percent of 1264 = 643.76 people (644 people would be 50.95) Impossible

- 25.75 percent of 1264 = 325.48 people (325 people = 25.71%) Impossible

- 11.49 percent of 1264 = 145.23 people (145 people out of 1264 = 11.47%) Impossible

- 7.14 percent of 1264 = 90.25% ( 90 people = 7.12%) Impossible

- 4.66 percent of 1264 = 58.9 people (59 people = 4.67%) Impossible

So these numbers don't work, it represents more a message they want to portray rather than an actual poll. So what's the message they want to portray?

The poll showed that 75.95 percent agreed with the martial law because it would help prevent violence and people feel more secured whereas 12.34 percent said that with or without martial law the political conflict would not be resolved and protests would continue as normal.

i.e. that martial law is very popular, and where it isn't popular, it would do no harm. Clearly false, the soldiers were already on the streets before martial law, so it doesn't increase security. It just increases the military powers plus permits censorship.

The 11.71 percent who opposed the law said that the martial law was unjustified because there was no riot or serious violence to justify the imposition of the law. Moreover, the law will give a false impression that a coup has taken place.

Aww, those wacky academics and lawyers pointing out it's illegal to declare martial law across the country using a Section 4, and its also illegal when there is no insurghency/riots to quell. Thankfully they are a tiny minority, according to this fictional poll we just made up.

It is standard practice to quote the total number of respondents in an opinion poll, and it is also normal that not every respondent answers every question. So long as every question published has enough respondents to qualify for the predetermined level of confidence, that too is fine. All that data should be available in any published report but is rarely, if ever, published by newspapers.

This doesn't mean the poll wasn't massaged or biased, it just means one can't tell from the simple arithmetic of the published percentages.

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Hahaha!!! open office solver is implemented data only - go and read a software manual sometime!! A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!!!

[love1012]

Where was the poll held? Bangkok only? How do we know it is representative of the nation as a whole? I am sure most people are happy that someone has stepped in to stop the madness, it is just a shame it has to be the army. The politicians need to realise that they are voted for by the people and paid by the people and that they should have sorted this out without the need of the army intervention. They are all a bunch of self serving *******.

The PTP is a pressure group to bring back the criminal - it is NOT a Government HENCE it does not behave like a Government

[Brian Corrigan]

The number is very close to the percentage who think corruption is ok,as long as they get a piece of the action.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Hahaha!!! open office solver is implemented data only - go and read a software manual sometime!! A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!!!

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Edited May 22, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[BlueNoseCodger]

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Hahaha!!! open office solver is implemented data only - go and read a software manual sometime!! A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!!!

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

numbers-are-impossible.jpg

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Here's 966, you can see even that one fails

[casualbiker]

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Hahaha!!! open office solver is implemented data only - go and read a software manual sometime!! A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!!!

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

numbers-are-impossible.jpg

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Here's 966, you can see even that one fails

impossible-numbers-966.jpg

Go to post 30 download the PDF. Check. Then call, email or visit Dusit to find out the criteria .. good idea?

Sent from my XT1032 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Scamper]

For those who are feeding Thai polling surveys into a computer programme designed to mete out inconsistencies - congratulations, you've just earned yourself a degree in the jolly obvious. It doesn't matter what the poll says. Martial law is a reality. It has brought down the political temperature considerably. There is safety on the streets of Bangkok for the first time in ages. Pheu Thai, the UDD, the Democratic party, and the PDRC actually all sat down in the same room together yesterday for the very first time. We don't need a poll to verify the success of that, and we don't need a poll to verify that people are happy about all these consequences. The parties are sitting down and talking, and the violence on the streets has ceased. What's not to be happy about that ?

[BlueNoseCodger]

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

numbers-are-impossible.jpg

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Here's 966, you can see even that one fails

impossible-numbers-966.jpg

Go to post 30 download the PDF. Check. Then call, email or visit Dusit to find out the criteria .. good idea?

Sent from my XT1032 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

There's the proof, its question 1 they faked. The second and third questions behave as expected with solid green lines as 1264 respondents.

(Note that does not mean Q2 and Q3 are real, it just means the statistician put the blatant tell in Q1).

Edited May 22, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[casualbiker]

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

numbers-are-impossible.jpg

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Here's 966, you can see even that one fails

impossible-numbers-966.jpg

Go to post 30 download the PDF. Check. Then call, email or visit Dusit to find out the criteria .. good idea?

Sent from my XT1032 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

There's the proof, its question 1 they faked. The second and third questions behave as expected with solid green lines as 1264 respondents.

question-1-rigged.jpg

(Note that does not mean Q2 and Q3 are real, it just means the statistician put the blatant tell in Q1).

Hilarious

Sent from my XT1032 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[BlueNoseCodger]

For those who are feeding Thai polling surveys into a computer programme designed to mete out inconsistencies - congratulations, you've just earned yourself a degree in the jolly obvious. It doesn't matter what the poll says. Martial law is a reality. It has brought down the political temperature considerably. There is safety on the streets of Bangkok for the first time in ages. Pheu Thai, the UDD, the Democratic party, and the PDRC actually all sat down in the same room together yesterday for the very first time. We don't need a poll to verify the success of that, and we don't need a poll to verify that people are happy about all these consequences. The parties are sitting down and talking, and the violence on the streets has ceased. What's not to be happy about that ?

Well firstly there's supposed to be a Suthep protest today, so no it might reduce the perception of the political temperature, but not the actuality, Suthep is supposed to be escalating today (a strike by the state enterprises unions), and even marching outside his zone on 26th.

Reds are as ever running their protest, (from one of the live feed):

Look, either we live in a fantasy land, or we face up to the hard truth. Getting the pair to sit in a room is not new, and when Suthep refuses elections again, do we have another fake poll telling us we don't want an election poll?

Of course not, that would be dumb. Time for the elite to face the truth, this coup has failed, move on.

Edited May 22, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[thesweetsoul]

If Martial Law was a good thing, UN and other Countries wouldnt be expressing concern, and everyone would do.it.

Its a last resort, and takes away MANY personal freedoms.

Its hardly ever looked upon as a good thing.

[rabas]

Then provide the link to the full report.

If I take this data, stick it in a spreadsheet, and then put it through the solver to minimize the error by changing the count, it gives me a minimum error (of

0.5998) at 1262 people.

50.93% of 1262 people is 642.7366 still impossible.

But it could be a fault in my OpenOffice solver, so please tell me the number if its not 1264 that makes these numbers work.

Also standard practise is to list "don't knows", not to adjust each question to a different total!

Hahaha!!! open office solver is implemented data only - go and read a software manual sometime!! A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!!!

No, the numbers are impossbile, even if I assume OpenOffice solver is not good, a manual check shows there is no number instead of 1264 that makes the numbers work:

numbers-are-impossible.jpg

For there to be a correct number, there should be a line of solid green through them (green means the cell converted to people, rounded and back to percentage to 2 decimal places is the number listed by Dusit).

So the nearest number that works is 966, but then 25.75 of 966 = 248.75 (249 is 25.78), so even that one fails.

So no, these numbers are fake made up numbers.

Here's 966, you can see even that one fails

impossible-numbers-966.jpg

Bluenose, go get the original poll as suggested in post 30. There were 3 independent questions, do them all.

You have one error in your analysis of Question 1, the second largest percentage is 25.78, not 25.75. Fix that, then change your spreadsheet so that it accounts for rounding errors. There are at least 2 rounding errors to consider, 1) the Dusit Poll, and 2) your spreadsheet. Computers can round in different ways (closest, up, or down) so each error should be +/- 0.01, or a total of +/- 0.02 as mentioned in post 30. Change your spread sheet to highlight all cells within +/- 0.02 of the calculated ratio. Can you find the bar? Then report back. One suspicious point is that the poll numbers always add to 100.00%, this is often not the case with real rounding.

[wandasloan]

even then......it would be preferable to leaving the corrupt PTP rabble who've bribed and threatened their way into power under the orders of a corrupt criminal and then totally made a mess of the whole thing leaving 28 dead and farmers desperate for their livelihoods - if this is martial law - it looks better than red shirt democracy!!

Let's examine this in words of no more than four letters:

.

[trigger571]

While I personally support the current martial law provided it does not escalate into a Coup, this poll is unreliable at best. Small sample size and no mention of methodology so we can hardly deduce it is an accurate representation of the country. For instance, was the poll carried out nation-wide or just in Bangkok. What were the questions? How was the poll conduced (telephone, mobile, interviews)? How was the selection made. Until these and more questions are answered this poll is just a PR stunt for the feeble minded.

[wandasloan]

While I personally support the current martial law provided it does not escalate into a Coup, this poll is unreliable at best. Small sample size and no mention of methodology so we can hardly deduce it is an accurate representation of the country. For instance, was the poll carried out nation-wide or just in Bangkok. What were the questions? How was the poll conduced (telephone, mobile, interviews)? How was the selection made. Until these and more questions are answered this poll is just a PR stunt for the feeble minded.

Do you not have your own opinion of the feelings of the nation, at least your area? If it doesn't come close to this poll, how do you think your neighbours/region feel differently, and why? If it comes close, who cares about the specific poll from a known distrustful polling outfit? (Remember the Bangkok governor's elections?)

My own feeling is that the poll results seem to be about right for the places I've been, the people I've talked to. And that includes both the main mobs, for whatever that's worth.

.

Edited May 22, 2014 by wandasloan

[NangrongJ]

It's absolutely hideous to refer to this as a survey. Unless there is a proportional survey in every region then you will not get an accurate or balance return.

It seems 75% of turkeys voted for Christmas.

[rayw]

Way too small a sample of the population to be a valid poll. Also was it taken across the country or just around Bangkok area say ?? Mind you I would agree with the poll result as a good thing as I too fully agree that this temporary imposition of martial law right now is a good thing and has more chance of mending or reducing the divide in the long term. I certainly feel safer and more secure here now and if i was a tourist I would be more likely to come here now for a holiday.

Quite simply the problems will not be cured until we can rid Thailand of Thaksin and his obviously corrupt selfish right wing family and all their pond life cronies. Sure the PTP have the best policies for the people, at least on paper, and without the unacceptable Shinawatra clan it could work out well for the country. Sure most folk do not want further control by the elite ruling class as we slip back to the bad old days then, so I can understand that fully. What I want to see is what i am sure 75% or more of Thais want to see a fairer less corrupt society run by the people for the people.

[ghazel53]

75% Of Bangkok people.. is not a valid poll....

[khunken]

It's pretty simple. One doesn't have to use software and extreme petty semantics to take any poll in Thailand with a large dollop of salt. Anyone who remembers the polls prior to the election of the Bangkok governor would know that all but one poll got it seriously wrong. The one that came close was NIDA.

It is also a shame to see lies posted here about the 2006 coup. It was bloodless. Including the 2010 riots as a part of the coup is totally dishonest.

[peecee]

It is only a coup if they cancel elections and appoint a PM. We have to wait and see.

If you want to issue such loose criteria for what you consider a coup, then so be it... it's a coup.... who cares?

When a country is in tatters and most of it at the hands of the current government, and if it takes a coup to get rid of them and save that country from suffering any more, then coups should be the fashion of the day...... globally.

When a government fails to deliver on its mandate to the people on multiple fronts, corruption is openly obvious and they intimidate anyone with an opposing opinion and accuse them of treason, break articles of the constitution, rig lower and upper house votes......then they are no longer democratically legitimate in the principles of democracy and a coup is justifiable as a 'democratic removal'.

Most of the world prefers to choose it's government via the ballot box. Once elected and appointed, any minister who breaks the law is removed and prosecuted. There would then be an election for their vacant seat.

Any government who feels that serious disorder required the implementation of martial law has the right to order its military onto the streets, to assist the police in the capture and prosecution of the law breakers. The judiciary then has the power to punish said law breakers.

I think it was a serious miscalculation by the government in not protecting the the rights of its citizens to vote and I hope that the military is used to maintain order at all polling stations at the next general election.

The judiciary must act equally, without fear or favour against all. The prevention of the democratic process in the last election and other transgressions such as the invasion at the airport leaves me feeling that the judiciary act without impartiality This cannot be right and its not how the constitution of a solid democracy should function.

I sincerely hope that one day Thailand can learn to function under the tried and tested democratic processes with a constitution that is fair to all members of society.

[crazykopite]

WOW that was one hell of a poll in 48 hours how many millions took part or was it just 100 who were stopped in the local shopping mall !

[max72]

It is happening exactly what i had forecasted.

The elite has ordered his slave, the mercenary pluriconvicted plurisassissin Suthep to destroy Thai economy, to kill people, to put Thailand on its knees in order to create chaos, desperation amongst Thais, so this would pave the way for the elite's right wing (the army) to step in and

keep their absolute powers as ever. They want people to be desperate in order to accept the martial law to put an end of the chaos and their suffering. Myanmar and Cambodia are paradises of democracy compared to Thailand. Thai elite is abominable. I was surprised in China to read how even Chinese newspapers hint at the disgusting Thai regime. China has a very strict and merciless one party system, it's true, but Chinese regime main target is to put the country forward, not to just keep the power of an elite. Every 10 years all bureocrats in China are replaced.

In some ways (some, not all) China is more democratic than Thailand, because in China there is a rotation inside the party and the decisions are not taken by few families and one 90 years old general, but amongst 500-600 people. Sorry for the OT.

Thailand is a lost case. I wish it would be different, but I don't see any chance of a bright future , all the opposite. This is just the appetizer of bigger problems ahead on the road.

[DubaiIsCalling]

At least polls can be held without being obstructed by a bunch of Anarchistic clowns. I sense some improvement is coming up.

[DubaiIsCalling]

WOW that was one hell of a poll in 48 hours how many millions took part or was it just 100 who were stopped in the local shopping mall !

Dear Gaysorn customer, can I ask you a question. Do you like the coup which is not a coup?

[millwall_fan]

These polls tend to be conducted by university students and are invariably skewed toward Bangkok and the middle classes. Thus they do not accurately represent Thai opinion. Too many academics opinions aresought and not enough Isaan farmers - but then that is what this dispute is all about.

[inutil]

I think regardless of the sample, this poll has been made irrelevant by the seizing of power by the Army. I think both sides were relatively happy that there was the prospect of some kind of progress through martial law in removing the disruptions in Bangkok, and allowing for the prospect of a secure election to finally take place. This will have been completely undermined now by the army now holding civil power. Those red shirts who would have been cautiously optimistic that there would be a fair compromise will be under few illusions now. As soon as the real shots ring out, then youll see how this plays out and just how many people support it.