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Thai monthly inflation falls first time in 10 months


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Posted

Thai monthly inflation falls first time in 10 months
By Digital Content

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BANGKOK, July 1 - Ampawan Pichalai, adviser to the Ministry of Commerce, said inflation in June this year fell by 0.10 per cent compared with that in May and it was the first decline in ten months.

She attributed it to the National Council for Peace and Order's measures to control the cost of living.

Ms Ampawan cited the council's decision to freeze diesel and household cooking gas prices and its request for manufacturers and other producers to freeze their product prices for six months.

Year-on-year inflation in June rose by 2.35 per cent and inflation in the first half of this year ran at 2.23 per cent.

The Ministry of Commerce predicts that inflation will be up by 2.53 per cent in the second half of this year on condition that the crude price stands at US$110-111 per barrel and there will not be a war between Iraq and Syria.

The ministry expects inflation to run at 2.50 per cent in the third quarter and at 2.56 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year. Throughout 2014 the ministry thinks that inflation will move between 2.00 per cent and 2.80 per cent and average 2.40 per cent. (MCOT online news)

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-- TNA 2014-07-01

Posted

inflation in June this year fell by 0.10 per cent compared with that in May and it was the first decline in ten months

yet another bonus for dumping Yingluck

Posted

said inflation in June this year fell by 0.10 per cent compared with that in May

Year-on-year inflation in June rose by 2.35 per cent and inflation in the first half of this year ran at 2.23 per cent.

Huh?

I think this is a case of a little porkie pie being turned into a headline.

So inflation June year on year was 2.35%, would that logically mean that Inflation in May Year on Year was 2.45%, thus meaning that the RATE OF INCREASE was 0.1% lower, but still none the less rising.

  • Like 2
Posted

What about the lack of people spending money, that made people keep their prices down? Oil/petrol may contributed but.........?

Or just a bit more showboating?

Chris Lawrence, if you don't know the facts, don't just post your ignorant opinion... unless you have an agenda, which I suspect you do from your 'showboating' remark.

Weak Thai consumer confidence improves after coup - university survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/03/us-thailand-economy-confidence-idUSKBN0EE0CL20140603

For Thaksin sycophants, success for the Thai people is failure for Thaksin.

post-102528-0-89941300-1404222652_thumb.

[The man is possibly Jarupong Ruangsuwan, former interior minister. He recently resigned from the leadership of the Pheu Thai Party to start an anti-coup organization overseas. The boss he is talking to is Thaksin Shinawatra. As it is incredibly unlikely that a person charged to run the Pheu Thai Party (owned by the Shinawatra family) would not be taking orders directly from Thaksin, the cartoon seems to show a dejected Jarupong reporting to his boss that the military takeover remains popular with people.]

Posted

I wonder how they would describe what is going on between Iraq and Syria. Looks suspiciously like a war to me.

Syria is helping Iraq by bombing ISIS forces. How is that suspicious?

Posted

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

  • Like 1
Posted

Ampawan Pichalai says the decrease in inflation was attributable to NCPO freezing diesel and household cooking gas prices and manufacturers and other producers (encouraged by NCPO?) freezing their product prices for six months.

Well, certainly any short-term price control will slow inflation - temporaily. It wouldn't take the NCPO to try this and Venzuela is the most recent example of using price controls to slow inflation. However, when applied for a long-term (ie., greater six months) as it has in Venzuela, inflation comes back with a roar.

Long-term price controls upset supply and demand economics in a capitalistic economy. The result is short-term hoarding or wasteful use at below market prices and long-term price increases above market prices to make up the loss of profits during the price control period. Initially, domestic commodities under price controls realize a surge in demand that is good for the nation's economy while imported commodities see a slowdown in demand due to comparatively higher (albeit at market price) prices.

But price controls over the long-term decreases the supply for domestic commodities due to negligible or no profit margins realized for enterprises while cost of products continue to rise that disincentivizes continued manufacturing and distribution. The result of weakened availability of domestic commodities is a resurgence in demand for imported commodities, albeit at much higher prices than their market value before price controls were implimented.

Venzuela strict price controls on basic commodities over an eight year period resulted in the world's highest inflation rate. The other effect was to reduce the availability of staple goods and foods. Fortunately, Venzuela was able to use its oil exports to subsidize purchase of foreign goods and foods to make up the shortfall of domestic goods and foods. Unfortunately, Thaiand does not have that luxory.

So the military junta may not appreciate Pichalai's kudos and may want to assure any price control policies are very short-term, ie., end when a new government is elected in October 2014 when it can get the most favorable publicity. Pursuing a price control policy well into 2014 could well become the "wolf in sheep's clothing."

  • Like 1
Posted

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Posted (edited)

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

Edited by Thai at Heart
Posted

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

An inflation rate of between 2.5% and 5% is good for consumer capitalist societies as it promotes a sustainable level of spending. Deflation is bad as everyone stops spending; waiting for the price to go down further. Too high an inflation rate and those on fixed wages and pensions are badly hurt as their spending power decreases. High inflation also causes speculation in the stock and housing markets causing bubbles that will pop soon or later.

  • Like 1
Posted

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

An inflation rate of between 2.5% and 5% is good for consumer capitalist societies as it promotes a sustainable level of spending. Deflation is bad as everyone stops spending; waiting for the price to go down further. Too high an inflation rate and those on fixed wages and pensions are badly hurt as their spending power decreases. High inflation also causes speculation in the stock and housing markets causing bubbles that will pop soon or later.

Deflation is falling prices and no one wants that. Everything stalls if that happens. 5% is to much because it punishes savers.

2 to2.5% is good. The rate of change of inflation fell. Prices are not falling, they are just increasing a little less quickly. That was in economics high school lower VI.

Posted (edited)
The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

An inflation rate of between 2.5% and 5% is good for consumer capitalist societies as it promotes a sustainable level of spending. Deflation is bad as everyone stops spending; waiting for the price to go down further. Too high an inflation rate and those on fixed wages and pensions are badly hurt as their spending power decreases. High inflation also causes speculation in the stock and housing markets causing bubbles that will pop soon or later.

No inflation of 2.5 - 5% is not sustainable unless wages keep pace, which they dont. Deflation is not bad, only for business and bankers, not regular people with a weekly pay packet.

I have watched since a child the spin put on inflation being a good thing whilst deflation is considered bad, this is merely spin since the invention of credit and debt, ergo slavery and is a reversal of the real truth tied up in economic policies and denied by economists for decades. Inflation to be sustainable whilst improving standard of living for regular people must be 0

Deflation is actually a good thing. In a deflation prices drop and money becomes more valuable, so deflation encourages people to save money. Deflation rewards the prudent saver and punishes the profligate borrower. The way a society, like an individual, becomes wealthy is by producing more than it consumes. In other words, by saving, not borrowing. And during a deflation, when money becomes more valuable, everybody wants money. They want to save. Whereas during an inflation, you want to get rid of the money. You want to consume. You want to spend. But you don’t become wealthy by spending and consuming; you usually become wealthy by producing and saving. Inflation is a friend of business and banking not people on regular wages.

Deflation is not inherently bad,yes deflation creates a great number of losers, and many of these losers are perfectly innocent people but deflation also creates many winners, and it also punishes many ‘political entrepreneurs’ who had thrived on their intimate connections to those who control the production of fiat money. Deflation puts at the very least a temporary break on further concentration and consolidation of power in the hands of the government and in particular in the corporate world. It dampens the growth of the welfare state, if it does not lead to its outright implosion. In short, deflation is at least potentially a great liberating force. It not only brings the inflated monetary system back to rock bottom, it brings the entire society back in touch with the real world, because it destroys the economic basis of the social engineers, spin doctors, and brain washers.

As time goes by and people realise their savings are being eroded faster than they rise it will become a world problem that cannot be ignored any longer. It is just a matter of changing economists thinking, we are about done with never ending inflation outstripping wages the world over and it IS unsustainable.

Recognition of the possibility of benign deflation should have a salutary effect on the thinking of the world’s central bankers. By helping them to overcome their fear of falling prices, it will encourage them to deal a deathblow to the worldwide scourge of inflation. It is simply a cycle that must happen to let out some wind in an economy. But that is only the beginning. Once the possibility of benign deflation is fully appreciated, zero inflation itself will come to be recognized as an overly expansionary policy.

That is the only ultimate type of sustainable inflation there is.

No im not a Keynesian tongue.png

Edited by englishoak
Posted
Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

An inflation rate of between 2.5% and 5% is good for consumer capitalist societies as it promotes a sustainable level of spending. Deflation is bad as everyone stops spending; waiting for the price to go down further. Too high an inflation rate and those on fixed wages and pensions are badly hurt as their spending power decreases. High inflation also causes speculation in the stock and housing markets causing bubbles that will pop soon or later.

No inflation of 2.5 - 5% is not sustainable unless wages keep pace, which they dont. Deflation is not bad, only for business and bankers, not regular people with a weekly pay packet.

I have watched since a child the spin put on inflation being a good thing whilst deflation is considered bad, this is merely spin since the invention of credit and debt, ergo slavery and is a reversal of the real truth tied up in economic policies and denied by economists for decades. Inflation to be sustainable whilst improving standard of living for regular people must be 0

Deflation is actually a good thing. In a deflation prices drop and money becomes more valuable, so deflation encourages people to save money. Deflation rewards the prudent saver and punishes the profligate borrower. The way a society, like an individual, becomes wealthy is by producing more than it consumes. In other words, by saving, not borrowing. And during a deflation, when money becomes more valuable, everybody wants money. They want to save. Whereas during an inflation, you want to get rid of the money. You want to consume. You want to spend. But you don’t become wealthy by spending and consuming; you usually become wealthy by producing and saving.

Deflation is not inherently bad,yes deflation creates a great number of losers, and many of these losers are perfectly innocent people but deflation also creates many winners, and it also punishes many ‘political entrepreneurs’ who had thrived on their intimate connections to those who control the production of fiat money. Deflation puts at the very least a temporary break on further concentration and consolidation of power in the hands of the government and in particular in the corporate world. It dampens the growth of the welfare state, if it does not lead to its outright implosion. In short, deflation is at least potentially a great liberating force. It not only brings the inflated monetary system back to rock bottom, it brings the entire society back in touch with the real world, because it destroys the economic basis of the social engineers, spin doctors, and brain washers.

As time goes by and people realise their savings are being eroded faster than they rise it will become a world problem that cannot be ignored any longer. It is just a matter of changing economists thinking, we are about done with never ending inflation outstripping wages the world over and it IS unsustainable.

Recognition of the possibility of benign deflation should have a salutary effect on the thinking of the world’s central bankers. By helping them to overcome their fear of falling prices, it will encourage them to deal a deathblow to the worldwide scourge of inflation. It is simply a cycle that must happen to let out some wind in an economy. But that is only the beginning. Once the possibility of benign deflation is fully appreciated, zero inflation itself will come to be recognized as an overly expansionary policy.

That is the only ultimate type of sustainable inflation there is.

No im not a Keynesian tongue.png

If everybody saves their money and no one spends, we will all be unemployed. For my business to succeed, some people need to buy my services. Without money being in circulation, no one can earn a living as no one is spending. Just as the Sun heats the tropical waters and drives World sea currents (circulation) a little inflation drives sustainable spending and circulates money which we can all get a piece of.

If you want an example of a rather large economy with deflation and no inflation for the last 20 - 25 years, study the economy of Japan. It has been stagnant, even with zero percent loans, because no one will get off their savings and stimulate the economy. The US has and now Thai government will spend large sums of money to stimulate the economy. No growth equals no wealth creation, which keeps the lower classes from migrating to the middle class and the middle class from migrating to the upper class. Wealth creation cannot occur in a zero growth or deflationary economy. This forum is not the place to argue this and the subject is too large to be adequately explained (economics lessons fill huge textbooks), so I will leave it to you to have the last word.

One last question. Who are the winners when deflation is the norm?

deflation creates a great number of losers, and many of these losers are perfectly innocent people but deflation also creates many winners,

Posted (edited)

Your right its not the place for here. "the norm" as you put it has cycles up and down, you cant keep pumping created cash into a system without creating imbalances ergo inflation. Deflation is one of two options, the other being debasement which is finite and has the same result as inflation. Deflation is the only yang to inflations ying and IS equally so, not consistent inflation which just errodes savings and wages further than they can rise. The natural balance like all things lays at 0 or rather small swings above and below. Economics isnt rocket science.

You want to go PM we can debate all you like id be very happy to.

PS ive read that book or something like it on Japan and a whole lot of others.

Edited by englishoak
Posted

A post containing an acronym for an unrecognized political party has been removed, posts containing this acronym have been removed previously and will continue to be removed.

Posted

I expect the shock of the military coup and those several weeks of curfew is what suppressed inflation for June as it suppressed overall economic activity...yep, just a short term blip on the screen.

Posted

The Swiss franc has risen in value against the Baht from 31, at the beginning of the year, to over 36 now (16% increase). If your Lindt bar came from LindtUSA, someone is price gouging you as the Dollar/Baht exchange rate has been steady since the coup. You didn't mention the time frame for the price rise. Is it ten years or one month? In any case, it is probably not considered an essential food item by poor Thai families so, what is the point you're trying to make? Are you suggesting Gen. P caused your chocolate bar to rise in price? 555555

In general I think the point hes trying to make, deflation of 0.10% is meaningless. Overall theres inflation, just like everywhere else... which makes this news just showboating guff,period

Its not deflation. Year on year its up 2.something %.

Its just its increasing a little slower than it was last month. Yearly inflation is still positive. Very disingenuous headline.

If the target was 2.5% they would have exceeded it by miles.

An inflation rate of between 2.5% and 5% is good for consumer capitalist societies as it promotes a sustainable level of spending. Deflation is bad as everyone stops spending; waiting for the price to go down further. Too high an inflation rate and those on fixed wages and pensions are badly hurt as their spending power decreases. High inflation also causes speculation in the stock and housing markets causing bubbles that will pop soon or later.

No inflation of 2.5 - 5% is not sustainable unless wages keep pace, which they dont. Deflation is not bad, only for business and bankers, not regular people with a weekly pay packet.

I have watched since a child the spin put on inflation being a good thing whilst deflation is considered bad, this is merely spin since the invention of credit and debt, ergo slavery and is a reversal of the real truth tied up in economic policies and denied by economists for decades. Inflation to be sustainable whilst improving standard of living for regular people must be 0

Deflation is actually a good thing. In a deflation prices drop and money becomes more valuable, so deflation encourages people to save money. Deflation rewards the prudent saver and punishes the profligate borrower. The way a society, like an individual, becomes wealthy is by producing more than it consumes. In other words, by saving, not borrowing. And during a deflation, when money becomes more valuable, everybody wants money. They want to save. Whereas during an inflation, you want to get rid of the money. You want to consume. You want to spend. But you dont become wealthy by spending and consuming; you usually become wealthy by producing and saving. Inflation is a friend of business and banking not people on regular wages.

Deflation is not inherently bad,yes deflation creates a great number of losers, and many of these losers are perfectly innocent people but deflation also creates many winners, and it also punishes many political entrepreneurs who had thrived on their intimate connections to those who control the production of fiat money. Deflation puts at the very least a temporary break on further concentration and consolidation of power in the hands of the government and in particular in the corporate world. It dampens the growth of the welfare state, if it does not lead to its outright implosion. In short, deflation is at least potentially a great liberating force. It not only brings the inflated monetary system back to rock bottom, it brings the entire society back in touch with the real world, because it destroys the economic basis of the social engineers, spin doctors, and brain washers.

As time goes by and people realise their savings are being eroded faster than they rise it will become a world problem that cannot be ignored any longer. It is just a matter of changing economists thinking, we are about done with never ending inflation outstripping wages the world over and it IS unsustainable.

Recognition of the possibility of benign deflation should have a salutary effect on the thinking of the worlds central bankers. By helping them to overcome their fear of falling prices, it will encourage them to deal a deathblow to the worldwide scourge of inflation. It is simply a cycle that must happen to let out some wind in an economy. But that is only the beginning. Once the possibility of benign deflation is fully appreciated, zero inflation itself will come to be recognized as an overly expansionary policy.

That is the only ultimate type of sustainable inflation there is.

No im not a Keynesian tongue.png

True deflation is the death of an economy. Inflation on its own without GDP growth is of course a bad thing too.

But true deflation where prices are falling continually creates the strange effect of people waiting to buy things knowing they will be cheaper tomorrow. This is to be seen in consumer goods such as TVs occasionally, and has led to companies trying to.shorten the development and obsolescence span.

This effects the velocity of money in the country and you end up with interest rates being very low or effectively zero and thus no incentive to save also. Borrowing has to become essentially free because deflation wipes out the incentive to borrow to invest.

One of the phenomena of the last 20 years is that China has exported deflation to the world on certain products without revaluing its currency. Prices have been kept very low for certain things for a very long time . entire industries have been moved globally to China.

All great for.consumers not so great for wage earners

Posted

My favourite chocolate bar, a small Lindt, has just gone up from 30 to 37 Baht. More than 22%

Yes. Everything I see is going up in price. I cannot pay any heed to these surveys, and anything issued by any government. All I can pay heed to is my wallet, and how much I am spending. I see prices rising rather significantly, and no matter what anyone tells me, that is what I believe.

Posted

If diesel goes up watch inflation rocket up and up and up!!!!

When everyone was crying for a cheaper baht a18 months ago, it was obvious that once the baht devalues from 27 to 33 to the USD, the first thing to go which hits everything on the high street is fuel.

Suck it in everyone, the baht is now 20% cheaper than it was, and that is feeding into every single business activity in the country because of increased fuel cost.

  • Like 1
Posted

If diesel goes up watch inflation rocket up and up and up!!!!

When everyone was crying for a cheaper baht a18 months ago, it was obvious that once the baht devalues from 27 to 33 to the USD, the first thing to go which hits everything on the high street is fuel.

Suck it in everyone, the baht is now 20% cheaper than it was, and that is feeding into every single business activity in the country because of increased fuel cost.

Yes but when the baht was strong I didn't see anything go down? now everyone is blaming it for fuel increases, and increased prices, it is just an excuse to rip every one off as all "governments" do.

Posted (edited)

If diesel goes up watch inflation rocket up and up and up!!!!

When everyone was crying for a cheaper baht a18 months ago, it was obvious that once the baht devalues from 27 to 33 to the USD, the first thing to go which hits everything on the high street is fuel.

Suck it in everyone, the baht is now 20% cheaper than it was, and that is feeding into every single business activity in the country because of increased fuel cost.

Yes but when the baht was strong I didn't see anything go down? now everyone is blaming it for fuel increases, and increased prices, it is just an excuse to rip every one off as all "governments" do.

It wouldn't be likely to. But it would be reducing to offset increases in other inputs. At the end of the day fuel cost is on the bottom line of anything and everything in the country. Electricity, transport, manufacturing, even your 7-11 slurpy need fuel to made. The USD price of fuel goes up and down with the market OUTSIDE Thailand.

And what happened to this amazing splurge in exports that was supposed to happen with the devalued baht? Hmmmmmmmmmmmn.

Still waiting.

Edited by Thai at Heart

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