how much time from now will condo prices drop?

[mike2011]

(moderator edited libelous comment), I thought that at least 50% of advertizing was on condos and also visa runs. I have met over the years quite a number of foreigners who own more than one condo and living off their income from renting these out to other foreigners. Unless, they are debt-free these landlords might face a number problems due to their reduced customer base.

I take it that the visa run companies did not advertize for the sole benefit of those well-known characters mentioned above but to make some money. Obviously there were plenty of customers to sustain some of those companies for quite a few years. Their customers were longterm tourists who might now be missing. As reported elsewhere on the forum here, obtaining a tourist visa is not an option for all as THai embassies and consulates in neighboring countries use their discretion and refuse entire categories of applicants (check for PP).

With the moving in reduction of tenants it is doubtful that landlords will invest in more rental property and it is also doubtful that those longterm tourists will think of buying property given their increased cost of organizing their stay in the country.

The reference to the large number of tourist arrivals is misleading and just obscuring the issue. Those large numbers include the wave of Chinese tourists on arranged tours and the standard backpacker and vacationers. The longterm tourists form just a small part of that number and thus fluctuations in their numbers do not impact the overall statistics too much. However, it is this segment that makes all the difference for many business owners and the property market.

Talking about property prices in Thailand in relation to other property markets makes a lot of sense. Really. Without doubt people compare prices in Singapore and will be pleased that Pattaya charges less..... Such posts are welcome. It gives us an idea how sales agents work on their potential buyers with all too true statements and still talk absolute nonsense.

Denying the link between easy and cheap/no cost visa solutions and the property market is wishful thinking and reminds me of schoolboys whistling in a dark forest a night. The efforts by the real estaters here to talk up prices tells more about the market than they wish it would. Would it be all sunshine and a bright future ahead awaiting them - none would waste a second coming forward. Obviously, they do come forward and that has a reason.

Edited July 24, 2014 by petercool

[JSixpack]

What I don't get about these "housing/condo bubble" threads or the current one, is everyone charges ahead accepting the poster's premise which is an opinion that is not supported by any data.

Data? Huh? There's none available to us and would in any case just confuse matters with arguments that owners aren't really owners, a condo isn't owned unless an owner physically lives in it, fake figures unsupported by lights-on-at-night, etc. etc.

No, the point is, there's just nothing so satisfying--for a renter, especially--as knockin' back a few Changs, tokin' some good weed, and then hittin' the ol' keyboard to pound out a wise, shrewd, authoritative (ex cathedra) prophecy of DOOM.

A lot of it is just "wishin' I could get somethin' for nothin'." Disagree, observe that it wouldn't matter for a long-term owner, or simply suggest "wait and see," and, oh, you're wearin' rose-tinted glasses, you're OMG a vile real estate agent, you're an owner attempting to talk up prices (here? ) or, well, an idiot.

Read one of these threads and you're bellyin' to the beer bar to have your ear bent.

[chiang mai]

"knockin' back a few Changs, tokin' some good weed, and then hittin' the ol' keyboard to pound out a wise, shrewd, authoritative (ex cathedra) prophecy of DOOM"

Way to go JS, that one also goes into my top thirty list.

[chiang mai]

If prices do fall, it' will be a function of this and it wont just be Pattaya condo prices that fall:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10989500/IMF-fears-ultra-low-rates-are-fuelling-asset-bubbles.html

[David48]

Thailand investors tend to sit on their investments and would rather cut their own throats instead of selling under their original purchase price, seems to have a lot do do with face

Applicable to Bangkok, maybe, but most buyers in Pattaya are not Thai.

I would love to see the Data on that.

Any referance?

Thanks

[Pattaya46]

... but most buyers in Pattaya are not Thai.

I would love to see the Data on that.

Any referance?

Don't have data on that, but for many condos in Pattaya

- there is no more apartments "in foreign name" for sale : 49%

- many foreigners buy apartments "in a Thai Company name" as investment to rent them

Seems rather obvious that most buyers are not Thai, no?

[KittenKong]

Don't have data on that, but for many condos in Pattaya

- there is no more apartments "in foreign name" for sale : 49%

- many foreigners buy apartments "in a Thai Company name" as investment to rent them

Seems rather obvious that most buyers are not Thai, no?

That's my interpretation, at least for the sort of developments that most farangs would want to buy in.

Only the resort-style "weekend hotel room" developments seem to have more Thai buyers than non-Thai, and the ones sited a long way away from the seafront.

Edited July 25, 2014 by KittenKong

[numis]

My wife is conected to the property buisness as are some of my friends ,the one problem i see (apart from shoe boxes at the seafront costing a fortune) is the fact that approx 60% of condoes purchased in Pattaya are not for personal use but as investments ,now i am not saying that it will happen here but remember what happened in Dubai where it was the same scenario.

To compare the desert and sand of Dubai with Pattaya is not fair.

I have several condos and houses in Pattaya that I have bought as an investment and for rental.

I get close to 8-10% return on my condos and abouth 5-6% on the houses.

Many buy conds as an investment and at times there are too many awailible rooms to get an fair rental price.

Most seriouse renters keep their prices at a sensible rent and the professionals never dump their condos.

The construction cost of building condos is raising every year and so does the land prices.

It's also a fact that the welthy people in Bangkok is buying a lot of condos in Pattaya as they consider pattaya more "clean" now than before.

Prices might not rice in the next few years but I can not see any big risk for a great fall either.

[loppylugs1]

Personally I could not give two hoots whether they drop/do not drop,I do not want to get involved,but what I see is finished flats/condos ,not a buyer in sight. True people do not want to lose money on a sale,so they hang on in there, forever it seems,,fire sale forces the issue eventually.

Numbers of western men are down without a doubt ,Indians and Chinese up,which in time will reflect the buyers of the property. Two events I can see in the not too distant future that will weigh heavily on UK farang especially,but by that time I just do not want to be here...period

[Pattaya46]

// ,but what I see is finished flats/condos ,not a buyer in sight.

And where are supposed to be these new finished and empty condos in Pattaya ?

I often read about that on this forum,

but the empty condos I see are all still in construction.

[petercool]

one post removed for language and trolling

[loppylugs1]

l buyers walk around with a "BUYER" sticker plastered to their foreheads--that's how we know. We gotta see them stickers on 'em in the bars, restaurants, and malls. They've got to be "in sight," presumably your sight, before they exist.

True people do not want to lose money on a sale,so they hang on in there, forever it seems,,fire sale forces the issue eventually.

And let's see your stats showing the trend lines over time . . . . The men only, as Western women can't count. Do they exist?

Indians and Chinese up,which in time will reflect the buyers of the property. Two events I can see in the not too distant future that will weigh heavily on UK farang especially,but by that time I just do not want to be here...period

(deleted post)

All buyers walk around with a "BUYER" sticker plastered to their foreheads--that's how we know. We gotta see them stickers on 'em in the bars, restaurants, and malls. They've got to be "in sight," presumably your sight, before they exist.

Ha Ha see your knickers are in a twist

Yes"in sight" whos sight yours,must be falling over themselves at getting a sniff of the property ladder in Patts? from where I sit there is a 20 odd bed block empty ,up for sale last two years ,no buyers, another other side no renters, another in front oh dear! sure the owners somehow scrape by hoping for better times,but those better times sure are getting hard to come by

Funny you should mention money,yes one renter quite close has a few properties,now not exactly down to his last satang ,but getting close,...and nah, think I would pass on western women purchasing property in Pattaya,unless you know differently,which obviously you do,and as for trending,go take a look outside your door,go look-see just how dismal a supposed tourist destination can be with no tourists

Who said anything about a death spiral? agree the place is a clapped out mess,but while there are people talking it up,it will never die,living the grand life ,zombie style

[JSixpack]

Personally I could not give two hoots whether they drop/do not drop,I do not want to get involved,but what I see is finished flats/condos ,not a buyer in sight. True people do not want to lose money on a sale,so they hang on in there, forever it seems,,fire sale forces the issue eventually.

Numbers of western men are down without a doubt ,Indians and Chinese up,which in time will reflect the buyers of the property. Two events I can see in the not too distant future that will weigh heavily on UK farang especially,but by that time I just do not want to be here...period

Sorry, owing to a change in the weather, I can no longer have a good laugh as I explain the irrationality of some posts, including yours. Hence, not worth responding to. I'll be posting less often (good news for some). Cheers!

[loppylugs1]

Personally I could not give two hoots whether they drop/do not drop,I do not want to get involved,but what I see is finished flats/condos ,not a buyer in sight. True people do not want to lose money on a sale,so they hang on in there, forever it seems,,fire sale forces the issue eventually.

Numbers of western men are down without a doubt ,Indians and Chinese up,which in time will reflect the buyers of the property. Two events I can see in the not too distant future that will weigh heavily on UK farang especially,but by that time I just do not want to be here...period

Sorry, owing to a change in the weather, I can no longer have a good laugh as I explain the irrationality of some posts, including yours. Hence, not worth responding to. I'll be posting less often (good news for some). Cheers!

Looking forward to it

[Thaiberius]

As far as I remember the only property boom in places like Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Pattaya and Jomtien has been in the imagination of developers. Just look at all the building going on, supply is massively exceeding demand.

[MrWorldwide]

This thread reminds me of the 'Why is the damned baht so strong when tourism is clearly down ?' gems we seem to enjoy on a regular basis. Second largest economy in SE Asia and apparently its powered by package tours out of Shenzhen and families from Vladivostok - who knew ......

[96tehtarp]

The condominium market in Pattaya is dominated by Thai money.

Foreigners overestimate their effect on the market.

Edited July 27, 2014 by 96tehtarp

[JesseFrank]

My wife is conected to the property buisness as are some of my friends ,the one problem i see (apart from shoe boxes at the seafront costing a fortune) is the fact that approx 60% of condoes purchased in Pattaya are not for personal use but as investments ,now i am not saying that it will happen here but remember what happened in Dubai where it was the same scenario.

To compare the desert and sand of Dubai with Pattaya is not fair.

I have several condos and houses in Pattaya that I have bought as an investment and for rental.

I get close to 8-10% return on my condos and abouth 5-6% on the houses.

Many buy conds as an investment and at times there are too many awailible rooms to get an fair rental price.

Most seriouse renters keep their prices at a sensible rent and the professionals never dump their condos.

The construction cost of building condos is raising every year and so does the land prices.

It's also a fact that the welthy people in Bangkok is buying a lot of condos in Pattaya as they consider pattaya more "clean" now than before.

Prices might not rice in the next few years but I can not see any big risk for a great fall either.

There is investment and investment.

What you do is investing for the long term, which isn't a bad thing.

What happened in Dubai, and i have the feeling in Pattaya as well, is investing with the purpose of selling the property at a profit before the building is completed.

The economic downturn which happened in Europe and the US, and is currently going on in Thailand, came to bite those investors in the arse.

The reason that developers keep building is that this is a planning that was made a few years ago, before the crisis was palpable, so difficult to turn back the time.

Remember the 2 years before the 1997 crisis the construction industry was at it's peak.

[KittenKong]

The condominium market in Pattaya is dominated by Thai money.

Yeah, right. But how do you explain that the farang quota invariably sells out before the Thai quota in all but the cheapest buildings, and why are so many units sold to farangs in Thai company name?

Or are you suggesting that all the farang buyers are in fact buying with money borrowed from their Thai wives or girlfriends, or indeed from Thai banks and money-lenders? Or that the Thai companies are all financed by the Thai nominee shareholders, and the farang is just a mascot?

[MrWorldwide]

JS, dont leave us - you are one of the few sane people in these threads - you just need to take a step back and consider what we're dealing with on TV.

[chiang mai]

JS, dont leave us - you are one of the few sane people in these threads - you just need to take a step back and consider what we're dealing with on TV.

+1

[KittenKong]

What happened in Dubai, and i have the feeling in Pattaya as well, is investing with the purpose of selling the property at a profit before the building is completed.

The economic downturn which happened in Europe and the US, and is currently going on in Thailand, came to bite those investors in the arse.

Indeed. I suspect that teeth are being honed at this very moment.

[loppylugs1]

Chinese ,Thais whoever love gambling,it is in their souls,probably why it is heavily regulated in this country,could not even imagine the murder rate if it was allowed.

Condo purchasing is a form of gambling,thousands pouring money into it to make a quick buck,even for a Thai to use cash for a purchase the money had to be borrowed ,stolen or whatever.

The developers too are gambling that their ever increasing concrete boxes are going to be picked up. The artistic licence given to these developers is a godsend "venetian nights" gondolia sailing majestically under a bridge,the bloody place with a huge sailing boat stuck in the middle of a vast lake <deleted> , Fart "Art on the Hill" Boutique hotel stuff.

Sure you never lose,the place is still there come hell or high water,just the thought of a quick turnaround gets a diminishing thought though,the rents that were expected get knocked back by 50% to find an occupier.

Rents here are cheap,and they are getting cheaper,like a free giveaway,so damned cheap it is a waste of time giving it a slice of cash to own Rents should when all this building is complete be such a bargain that the owners will be paying guests to stay in their apartments ,if only to turn the lights on at night time.

It is the time the owners of these multi rise shoe boxes realise there is no money to be made here that the problems start,no maintenance money paid,just farang holding the fort.

Love it when Thai sees the quick buck, the K bank adverts few years ago "cash for cars" beaming out,two years later on it was "cars for cash" then being led into a gold shop boggle eyed at another outstanding purchase...gold,just as gold prices took a nose dive.

For my part,yes did it all,and got out when the the going was good. 40 bed condo place,a third not paying their way in maintenance fees,will happen here for sure,when Thai meets farang , farang will always lose out

[i claudius]

We could also have a discusion about shop houses ,thousands of those that get built and no one ever lives in or has a shop in one.

[petercool]

a flame post deleted

[JSixpack]

JS, dont leave us - you are one of the few sane people in these threads - you just need to take a step back and consider what we're dealing with on TV.

Turning the asylum over to the lunatics . Thank you. Personally I think the forum benefits by having some check on the large number of haters, doomsayers, bickerers, and blusterers. Facts and history are useless w/ this crowd, and there usually aren't any anyway--personal, worm's-eye view anecdotes are the coin of the realm--so satire is about the only way reach them, demonstrating the silliness, and the only way to have a good laugh. I never troll, BTW. In fact I hate trolls and try to manipulate them into getting themselves banned whenever possible.

No opinion is ever changed here, but I may have been able to discourage some of the doomsayin'--I seem to see less of it. Yet the HATE CONDOS, CONDO GLUT, FOOLS BUY REAL ESTATE, IMMINENT ECONOMIC DISASTER!!!, COLLAPSING INFRASTRUCTURE!!!, DYING PATTAYA, FLEEING EXPATS, RUDE STUPID THAIS, and HATE RUSSIANS AND AMERICANS will always be recurring themes--as most of them were in the Pattaya Mail long before there was any thaivisa.com. To discourage this noise is actually not optimal for the business model. Remember,

If You're Not Paying for It You're the Product

More product the better. Anyway the recent extreme turn towards further granny-fication of the forum means no more satirical entertainment, the only thing that for me makes it worth posting in the "belly up to the beer bar" nonsensical topics. Can't even say the p-word any more except for something like "on Soi Diana there is a bar named "Pussy Bar"--true!

Me, I'm blessed w/ a good life here in Pattaya, one that I earned early the old-fashioned way, and have plenty of interest to do, so wasting less time here is probably a good thing. Cheers!

Edited July 28, 2014 by JSixpack

[loppylugs1]

Loved a "con" a while ago.Condo for sale c/w sitting tenant. Now the sitting tenant was paying one hell of an amount to be that sitting tenant.

Just a thought would that sitting tenant be checking out as soon as the gullible purchaser signed on the dotted line? No maybe not,supposed he was glad to be rid of his ill gotten cash before he turned his toes up.