Thailand at crossroads, foreign experts warn

[webfact]

Kingdom at crossroads, foreign experts warn
Pravit Rojanaphruk,
Kris Bhromsuthi
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Respected foreign voices invited to speak about Thailand's political footing have warned that the country faces an uncertain future.

They were speaking yesterday at the symposium "Thailand's Political Crisis in a Foreigners' Perspective: Past, Present and Future" organised by Thammasat University's Faculty of Economics.

Edward Knuth, a lecturer in British American Studies at Thammasat University, said the Kingdom was facing a vicious political cycle.

Military intervention had been used "as a political strategy" by People's Democratic Reform Committee protesters, who were calling for a coup and were expecting it, he said.

Political phenomenon

Calling for military intervention as a political strategy is a political phenomenon that emerged after Thaksin Shinawatra came to power and is part of "the vicious cycle", he pointed out.

Knuth explained that there was a five-step pattern to the cycle: dictatorship followed by a paper democracy and then a period of actual democracy followed by a political crisis that finally leads to military intervention.

He pointed out that there were better solutions for the Kingdom than staging a coup. Though the military used the potential of an escalation in violence as the reason behind the coup, Knuth said it could have upheld the democratic process by protecting election sites instead of seizing power.

He concluded his talk by asking: "What does it take to be a democracy?"

His answer: "Letting [elected] people who you don't like or trust run the country while you stay on the sidelines and fight through a democratic process."

Marc Saxer, resident director of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation - a supporter of democracy in the Kingdom since the 1970s - said what surprised him the most was it took seven months of political upheaval before the May 22 coup was staged.

"This indicates that there's a shift in the balance of power that is going on," Saxer said, adding that it's "almost impossible right now" for junta leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha to use large-scale power to suppress dissidents like Field Marshal Sarit Thanarath did in the 1960s.

The NCPO, Saxer said, had to centre itself round the notion of morality and was aware that if it resorted to brute force it might lose its hold on power.

Saxer said Thailand was facing a very long transformation crisis and a new social contract was needed through various groups compromising.

He noted however that the patronage system still governed Thailand and "runs everywhere" despite the emerging middle class in the provinces.

Claudio Sopranzetti, a post-doctoral fellow at Oxford University and an anthropologist specialising in Thailand, said the Kingdom was facing an open-ended future and could emerge either more democratic or less.

Sopranzetti cited Thai newspapers back in 1920, which were critical of the monarchy - the opposite of the situation today.

He also predicted Prayuth might run in elections in a few years and the upcoming permanent Constitution might reflect the current junta-sponsored provisional charter.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Kingdom-at-crossroads-foreign-experts-warn-30241220.html


-- The Nation 2014-08-19

[frollywolly]

Democracy as we know it coming from the West will never work in Thailand.

For Thai politicians democracy means access to 'hands in the till'

[worgeordie]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

[NongKhaiKid]

Oh No ! Crossroads tend to have traffic lights and we know how much attention Thais tend to pay to them.

[jayboy]

One important point arising from the article is the obvious but sometimes uncommented on reality is that the military coup was part and parcel of the PDRC strategy.This is not to say the Junta was directed by any source (though this of course cannot be excluded) to carry out the coup.However at our non participant level it is logically not possible to argue support for the PDRC under Suthep yet withdraw that support (or hedge it around with caveats) from the military coup and all that followed.These are of course honeymoon days for the Junta and there is fairly wide support for its reform programme.But in the nature of all honeymoons initial rapture fades as the pressure of events makes itself known.Whatever happens in the future there is no possibility of arguing that one was in favour of Suthep and the street protests but not the events which followed.Just a thought.All perhaps will be sweetness and light, the reform programme successfully implemented and Thailand launched into an age of Periclean democracy with good people at the helm.

[Roadman]

One important point arising from the article is the obvious but sometimes uncommented on reality is that the military coup was part and parcel of the PDRC strategy.This is not to say the Junta was directed by any source (though this of course cannot be excluded) to carry out the coup.However at our non participant level it is logically not possible to argue support for the PDRC under Suthep yet withdraw that support (or hedge it around with caveats) from the military coup and all that followed.These are of course honeymoon days for the Junta and there is fairly wide support for its reform programme.But in the nature of all honeymoons initial rapture fades as the pressure of events makes itself known.Whatever happens in the future there is no possibility of arguing that one was in favour of Suthep and the street protests but not the events which followed.Just a thought.All perhaps will be sweetness and light, the reform programme successfully implemented and Thailand launched into an age of Periclean democracy with good people at the helm.

Optimisim?

OK who are you and what have you done with Jayboy?

One can choose to be not in favour of Suthep but in favour of what followed / is following.

[drand11]

The only reason Democracy is difgicult in Thailand is due to the Dem/ Military "Allegiance". Its an obvious pattern time & time agsin. Dems are minority/ wamt power/ Cause political turmoil as a setup/ prelude for the "Brother" military to step in. It it endless!!

[EmptyHead]

They aren't ready for democracy.

[trogers]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

Now it is the one promising the most of the country's money, cash or future debts, will win.

[h90]

Where can I registered as "Expert".

I don't know much, but that doesn't seem to be important anyway.

[jayboy]

One important point arising from the article is the obvious but sometimes uncommented on reality is that the military coup was part and parcel of the PDRC strategy.This is not to say the Junta was directed by any source (though this of course cannot be excluded) to carry out the coup.However at our non participant level it is logically not possible to argue support for the PDRC under Suthep yet withdraw that support (or hedge it around with caveats) from the military coup and all that followed.These are of course honeymoon days for the Junta and there is fairly wide support for its reform programme.But in the nature of all honeymoons initial rapture fades as the pressure of events makes itself known.Whatever happens in the future there is no possibility of arguing that one was in favour of Suthep and the street protests but not the events which followed.Just a thought.All perhaps will be sweetness and light, the reform programme successfully implemented and Thailand launched into an age of Periclean democracy with good people at the helm.

Optimisim?

OK who are you and what have you done with Jayboy?

One can choose to be not in favour of Suthep but in favour of what followed / is following.

You could do that but it wouldn't make any sense because what happened is exactly as demanded by Suthep and his mobs (and their shadowy backers).

[jaapfries]

They aren't ready for democracy.

They ARE ready for a 'Benevolent Dictatorship' - - - Enter > > General Prayuth and what you get is a man of the highest integrity, who plays NO favorites and who is hell-bent on cleaning-up the "Rotten-through-The-Core" Thai society.

I don't know where he came from, but Thailand should be utterly grateful that this man stepped-up to the plate and is, by force, cleaning-up where there's dirt; - and creating honesty, where there's deceit; - and creating equality, where there's none ! ! !

Thailand applauds Gen. Prayuth

[alexanderkaufman]

While elections can be monitored, those of us that have Thai relatives in rural areas know political canvassers pay people to vote at their homes not at voting centers. As such, does anyone have a good suggestion on how this can be avoided/prevented? Seems that there needs to be a major paradigm shift. Which will require positive changes in the school system - and in all government bureaucracies. This will take a successive stream (over several generations) of work influenced by a free-thinking society not money-politics.

They aren't ready for democracy.

They ARE ready for a 'Benevolent Dictatorship' - - - Enter > > General Prayuth and what you get is a man of the highest integrity, who plays NO favorites and who is hell-bent on cleaning-up the "Rotten-through-The-Core" Thai society.

I don't know where he came from, but Thailand should be utterly grateful that this man stepped-up to the plate and is, by force, cleaning-up where there's dirt; - and creating honesty, where there's deceit; - and creating equality, where there's none ! ! !

Thailand applauds Gen. Prayuth

[sscsamui]

They aren't ready for democracy.

They ARE ready for a 'Benevolent Dictatorship' - - - Enter > > General Prayuth and what you get is a man of the highest integrity, who plays NO favorites and who is hell-bent on cleaning-up the "Rotten-through-The-Core" Thai society.

I don't know where he came from, but Thailand should be utterly grateful that this man stepped-up to the plate and is, by force, cleaning-up where there's dirt; - and creating honesty, where there's deceit; - and creating equality, where there's none ! ! !

Thailand applauds Gen. Prayuth

I agree That Gen. Prayuth Is the Best thing that has and could have happened to Thailand in a long time... 3 cheer for the General... And peace and prosperity to Thailand

[jonclark]

Edward Knuths' five step pattern clearly is the blueprint for "Thai-style Democracy".

[IMA_FARANG]

Thailand and it's so-called Democracy are stuck in the trap of two almost equal "political" parties ......both of whom believe they are completely "right" and there opponents are completely "wrong".

Such a two party political system with only two confrontational parties always lead to a "me and my friends are good" but "you and your friends are bad" type of situation that we saw in the streets of Bangkok before the junta took over,

Thailand desperately needs a third political party that is a choice other than the two big political parties.

Then the Thai people can come to understand that:

• Politics is not really important They can and do live their daily lives without politicians.
• All politicians are in fact losers who become politicians because they can't do anything else to earn a living.
• That politicians do not run the government, they should be regarded as "hired servants" of the people who elect them.
• And that as "hired servants" of the people they can be "fired" by the people if they do not do the job they were hired for properly.
• And most of all Politicians are not "Rock Stars" to be idolized and worshiped, they are losers who got their jobs because they couldn't do anything else to make a living.

When Thai voters get that attitude, that all politicians are losers that they hire to work for them with their vote and NOT their leaders but their followers, only then will a real Democracy of the people become possible.

Until a third party with enough strength to influence elections against the other two major parties is in place, Thai politics will remain trapped in that "two almost equal political parties trap" I referred to at the beginning of this post.

In such a trap, the military is left as the only "last resort" to maintain the rule of law against the inevitable trap of the two opposing parties and the "my party good, Your party bad" mentality that Thai politics is today.

Five years with no elections,

Five years of Military Rule.

Five years to cool down,

Five years without politics to solve the "crises".

Only then will "Democracy" without hate be a possibility

Edited August 19, 2014 by IMA_FARANG

[ianf]

The only reason Democracy is difgicult in Thailand is due to the Dem/ Military "Allegiance". Its an obvious pattern time & time agsin. Dems are minority/ wamt power/ Cause political turmoil as a setup/ prelude for the "Brother" military to step in. It it endless!!

What utter and complete rubbish! Democracy is dependent on the rule of law. Without the rule of law there is no democracy, either here or in any other country. From the simple refusal to don motorbike helmets to the massive corruption that runs all the way through the Thai system, you can see that the rule of law is sadly lacking. And why is that? Perhaps it is because of the Thai characteristic? Or perhaps because of the failed education system. Whichever, when you have a system as corrupt as the system in Thailand it will extend all the way through to the political management of the country. Corruption is counter democracy: at the local level nothing moves until you've slipped someone a backhander. Try running a business here. Everything is licensed and in order to obtain that licence you have to pay the Government officers under the counter cash. All Thaksin did at the end of the day was to exploit this sytem. In order for him and his cronies to remain at the top of the corrupt tree, they had to manage the politics. There was no, and there never has been, any democracy under the Shins because it was simply not in their financial interests to run a free and fair elctoral system and they were very good at manipulating everything. Sadly, some Dem politicians have also been caught up in this process. However, Abhisit tried to run an open and honest system and he even faced opposition from within his own party. There was never a Dem/Military alliance as you claim and there is no evidence at all to suggest that. It's just an idea that you have due to the lack of understanding of the whole business/political/cultural process in Thailand. Sadly, I can't see much changing. Corruption now is worse than ever. Due to the coup's strengthening of controls and application of existing laws, it just means that the price of corruption has risen. By that I do not suggest that the army is part of this process, but those that have run licensing committees and the like are still demanding bribes and increasing their price.

[AGareth2]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

Then why have the Democrats not won an election in ages?

[h90]

Thailand and it's so-called Democracy are stuck in the trap of two almost equal "political" parties ......both of whom believe they are completely "right" and there opponents are completely "wrong".

Such a two party political system with only two confrontational parties always lead to a "me and my friends are good" but "you and your friends are bad" type of situation that we saw in the streets of Bangkok before the junta took over,

Thailand desperately needs a third political party that is a choice other than the two big political parties.

Then the Thai people can come to understand that:

• Politics is not really important They can and do live their daily lives without politicians.
• All politicians are in fact losers who become politicians because they can't do anything else to earn a living.
• That politicians do not run the government, they should be regarded as "hired servants" of the people who elect them.
• And that as "hired servants" of the people they can be "fired" by the people if they do not do the job they were hired for properly.
• And most of all Politicians are not "Rock Stars" to be idolized and worshiped, they are losers who got their jobs because they couldn't do anything else to make a living.

When Thai voters get that attitude, that all politicians are losers that they hire to work for them with their vote and NOT their leaders but their followers, only then will a real Democracy of the people become possible.

Until a third party with enough strength to influence elections against the other two major parties is in place, Thai politics will remain trapped in that "two almost equal political parties trap" I referred to at the beginning of this post.

In such a trap, the military is left as the only "last resort" to maintain the rule of law against the inevitable trap of the two opposing parties and the "my party good, Your party bad" mentality that Thai politics is today.

Five years with no elections,

Five years of Military Rule.

Five years to cool down,

Five years without politics to solve the "crises".

Only then will "Democracy" without hate be a possibility

Not complete right: The Democrats are almost a normal party, right. But PTP is a one man show not a party.

[h90]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

Then why have the Democrats not won an election in ages?

Because they are relatively poor. They don't have a super rich owner.

[somo]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

Then why have the Democrats not won an election in ages?

Because they are relatively poor. They don't have a super rich owner.

Rubbish. The democrats have a multitude of super rich supporters who collectively have far more money and influence than just the one man.

In any case vote buying has long since been shown to be irrelevant to the election results. The democrats have become serial losers because they ignored the majority of voters for too long and are now playing catch up. The odd coup now and again just slows the democratic process down enabling them to do so faster.

[Utley]

13 British colonies were not ready for democracy in 1776 but it was implemented anyway. Over the next 200 years "American style democracy" has been severely challenged, altered, changed and some would argue fine-tuned but never overturned by a coup.

So what makes Thais so different from the American colonialists? I would argue that the foreign immigrants who founded the original American colonies were fiercely independent people predominantly from Europe who preferred to think for themselves, stand on their own two feet and be responsible for their own well being and destiny. Americans' famous "right to bear arms" comes from a deep mistrust of central government and a belief that individuals have the inherent right to always be free - even with the use of force if necessary. A point in fact is that the U.S. military does not swear allegiance to the commander in chief but rather to upholding the constitution.

In contrast, Asian culture seems to prefer a strong central government that makes decisions for the populace, rewards supporters with wealth (some call this corruption) and prohibits many individual freedoms that Westerners take for granted because it is expedient to do so. That preference probably has something to do with Buddhist/Hindu beliefs vs. Judeo/Christian beliefs. Asians want someone to take care of them. In contrast, most Westerners want to take care of themselves.

"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny." (quote attributed to Thomas Jefferson) Many Westerners truly believe that; for most Asians that thought is truly frightening - hence "Thai style democracy".

[Baerboxer]

Democracy as we know it coming from the West will never work in Thailand.

For Thai politicians democracy means access to 'hands in the till'

Do you think Democracy, as we know it, still really exist in the West?

It would be incredibly difficult to challenge the main political parties in the UK. Expensive deposits to stand, expensive campaigns. Anyone not mainstream will be monitored by the police and security services and may have undercover police infiltrating them. All in the "countries" interests of course. The main parties policies have moved closer. More tax, more rules and less basic freedoms, more powers for the police, and less rights for the individual. Now you will pay tax on the money you earn, if you try hard and save some you will be taxed again on the interest earned and if the government needs to steal some of your savings, your property, due to their or others mismanagement and greed they will do. The middle classes are being hammered back down so the elite very wealthy few can increase their wealth and power.Check out the family histories and wealth of those in power and main opposition in the UK - makes interesting reading.

Each country has its rich, powerful, socially connected elite - and these people operate like family clubs, the old boy network and make sure they work together to keep it so.

Not so overt hands in the til but they ain't running the country for anyone's benefit but their own,

Edited August 19, 2014 by Baerboxer

[Baerboxer]

13 British colonies were not ready for democracy in 1776 but it was implemented anyway. Over the next 200 years "American style democracy" has been severely challenged, altered, changed and some would argue fine-tuned but never overturned by a coup.

So what makes Thais so different from the American colonialists? I would argue that the foreign immigrants who founded the original American colonies were fiercely independent people predominantly from Europe who preferred to think for themselves, stand on their own two feet and be responsible for their own well being and destiny. Americans' famous "right to bear arms" comes from a deep mistrust of central government and a belief that individuals have the inherent right to always be free - even with the use of force if necessary. A point in fact is that the U.S. military does not swear allegiance to the commander in chief but rather to upholding the constitution.

In contrast, Asian culture seems to prefer a strong central government that makes decisions for the populace, rewards supporters with wealth (some call this corruption) and prohibits many individual freedoms that Westerners take for granted because it is expedient to do so. That preference probably has something to do with Buddhist/Hindu beliefs vs. Judeo/Christian beliefs. Asians want someone to take care of them. In contrast, most Westerners want to take care of themselves.

"When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny." (quote attributed to Thomas Jefferson) Many Westerners truly believe that; for most Asians that thought is truly frightening - hence "Thai style democracy".

Agree with you in the main. But many European countries are becoming more like the Asian model. The state rules not the electorate. Central government is omnipotent. Follow all the rules or else.

The people who drew up the American constitution were wise as well as brave. Nothing is perfect but despite erosion Americans still enjoy more freedoms than most others. They recognized the need for the people to have rights that would prevent central government slowly changing things to get total control.

Maybe that's why Americans have given so much to the world in the fields of science, the arts, sports, and been one of, if not the most innovative country over the last century or so.

[VegasVic]

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The only reason Democracy is difgicult in Thailand is due to the Dem/ Military "Allegiance". Its an obvious pattern time & time agsin. Dems are minority/ wamt power/ Cause political turmoil as a setup/ prelude for the "Brother" military to step in. It it endless!!

Drand, You hit the nail on the head my friend The fools on this board who post that Thailand is not ready for democracy are not only clueless wonders, but very insulting to the Thai people.

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

They aren't ready for democracy.

They ARE ready for a 'Benevolent Dictatorship' - - - Enter > > General Prayuth and what you get is a man of the highest integrity, who plays NO favorites and who is hell-bent on cleaning-up the "Rotten-through-The-Core" Thai society.

I don't know where he came from, but Thailand should be utterly grateful that this man stepped-up to the plate and is, by force, cleaning-up where there's dirt; - and creating honesty, where there's deceit; - and creating equality, where there's none ! ! !

Thailand applauds Gen. Prayuth

alt=clap2.gif> alt=clap2.gif> alt=clap2.gif>

I agree That Gen. Prayuth Is the Best thing that has and could have happened to Thailand in a long time... 3 cheer for the General... And peace and prosperity to Thailand

I guess we will see just how many cheers Gen. Prayuth gets after the upcoming tourist season is over!

[phoenixdoglover]

In most of these threads regarding the state of the Thai government, and the prospects for democracy in Thailand, there is very little mention of the Press, and the Judicial System. I don't see how Thailand can have a functioning democracy without strengthening these two institutions. Both act as referees for the democratic process: the Press does so through protected expression of free speech; and the Judiciary does so through transparency and adherence to written law.

I don't see the Press and the Judiciary as strong enough in Thailand to fulfill their roles. The Press is barely curious. Look at the news articles posted here; they typically skim the surface, take official pronouncements as gospel, and raise more questions than they answer. As for the Judiciary, it appears to me as a "black box". How many judicial decisions are reached is something of a mystery.

So Democracy has the main litigants: the political parties, their candidates, and their conflicting ideas. But Democracy also has the referees: the Press and the Judiciary. It is with these latter institutions that you get the corrective forces in play. And I think the strength of these is lacking in Thailand.

[SoFarAndNear]

This country is sitting in a huge amount of money because of the massive foreign investments brought by the huge tourism sector and expat sector over decades. But the country is not able to handle with it. Social injustice is at it's peaks.

It is like a guy who has no idea on economics wins a lottery jackpot of a million Dollar and then funding a company and is loosing everything because of no knowledge and arrogance....

[useronthenet]

Vote buying will never lead to democracy,and thats a very

big problem in Thailand.it means the side with the most

money wins,

regards Worgeordie

I know many examples of other countries political campaigning, which is principally governed by the amount of money you have, rather than your intellectual prowess. Like the US, which prides itself in the illusion of being democratic.

[iReason]

"...a five-step pattern to the cycle: dictatorship followed by a paper democracy and then a period of actual democracy followed by a political crisis that finally leads to military intervention."

Repeat.

(Every three to four years)

As I have stated before, once this current circus folds it's tents, it will be back to business as usual.