Investing 300k baht for 15+ years.

[Asiantravel]

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you are nervous without a buyer, as I like to put it "stuck".

There is too much emphasis on risk. I would like to say, "There is no risk or little risk, if there is knowledge and skill." Most people think investment is like a wall. What's an investment? Uhm... it's an investment...... makes money but there's risk.

Wrong. It's businesses, actual real earning businesses. If I own all the supermarkets in this country, tell me, what's the risk? Is there a crash? If there is, will I be poor? Are my supermarkets making me money (dividends) ?

The next question to ask is, which businesses do I want to be in? Just like a chameleon, when banks are good, I'm the largest bank shareholder, when I sense a shift that banks are doing poorly (like this year), I shift into other industries. It's no guessing game. It's pure financials.

Most people want to wait, sensing a crash will happen. Do I think a crash will happen? Yes. Will I sell all my stocks? No. Will I buy more when stocks crash? Of course.

My assets? First few years: Makro Second few years: Advanc Third few years: TTW Fourth few years: BTS

1 million --> 3 million ---> 8 million ----> 15 million = And so on. It's a business. I accumulate more and more. I could care less if other investors decide to crash the market, guess what? I'll accumulate even more. Till one day, we own all the shares in this world, let's see who is crying.

Go ahead and tell me how wise you are financially, and the fear of risks. Go ahead. Men make actions, judge the situation, and then speak. Do not fear and speak before even actually going the first step. Success is right in front of your eyes. Those who never invested, will never invest and will say negative things. Those who have invested and failed, will also say negative things and never blame themselves for the fault and the desire to correct. Those who have invested and are successful, continue to learn, continue to improve, continue to obtain new knowledge, and remain prosperous and rich. Yours to choose. Please "continue to be afraid, say stocks are bad, time deposits are best, say a crash is coming". You will live in the same position each year. I have made my choice and going up the ladder.

But people who think the way you do and are usually very confident that just because things have happened a certain way in the past you can safely assume things are going keep happening the same way going forward. But with abysmal economic conditions around the world and geopolitical risks.

The world is changing incredibly fast now and becoming incredibly unstable.

I might be more convinced if you could explain why that same scenario with the Nikkei in 1990 not even recovering 50% yet over more 20 years wouldn't apply to the Dow Jones today?

Like I've said, confidence is one thing. While we use the past to determine a company's behavior, we never use the past to predict the future. We just current growth and earnings to see the trend the company is going towards. Let's say banks for the past years have given 20-30% growth, but at the end of last year, TISCO gave me a flat growth around Q3 or Q4, I kicked it out of my door. Because TISCO was the first bank company that revealed their assets, I could assume other banks would have problems too, so bye bye to all bank stocks. I entered SAMART, as it had the 20-30% growth I needed. Barely a year since, I have SAMART with 30-40% capital gain. Coincidence? No. I don't sit around looking at technical charts for things to happen. I make things happen. I make the same decisions those big players make. I don't sell because others are selling, I sell because I am the one who judge this company is over, then I make the sale. And as they say, sheep follows.

So yes, the world is changing, so are we investors if we want to survive. But your assumption of end of world = get away from stocks = fail to me. Stocks run this entire planet. Not monkeys, not staffs, companies do.

One question you can't refuse.

My first question directly at you.

So after the entire world ends with the risks and whatnot, I own Advanc and Makro. Pick any amount of time, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. At the end of that time period, do you think I am richer or poorer? Will my Makro become a mom and pop shop?

"I might be more convinced if you could explain why that same scenario with the Nikkei in 1990 not even recovering 50% yet over more 20 years wouldn't apply to the Dow Jones today?"

Sorry, I am not here to convince you of anything. Like I've said many times, I don't work for this industry nor am I a sales. I am just a happy retired investor, who is happy to share my advices to those who wish to learn. I have no need to lure or attract investors.

But with your question, I'll try my best to answer. The Nikkei is consisted of many companies, new and old, and throughout the period some companies collapse, some gets delisted for personal reasons, and some go bankrupt. The reason the Nikkei is unable to reach that new high right now, is because there isn't a lot of meat in that Nikkei. What is meat? Meat is Toyota, Nissan, Honda for example. These 3 big guys make up the meat. If each car company is worth 20 billion, that is total of 60 billion. So in 1950 whatever, you had 60 billion. During this time, one of the car companies goes bankrupt, and disappears and never comes back. In 2014, how many car companies are there? Of course only 2, where's the meat now? Only 40 billion.

So there is no such thing as recovering. You keep stressing the importance of returning to previous high, do we investors care? Not really. If you take the entire population of a country and times their intelligence, does it equate to you? Of course not, we are individuals. Same with stocks. Japan was one of the strong tigers in the Asian economy, that's why the previous high is not reached yet. What happened? Korea? Samsung? Hyundai? I remember Sony was the huge brand everyone had to have, back 15-20 years ago. Now? Just another brand sitting on that shelf. Of course that affects the valuation of Sony which affects Nikkei doesn't it? Think about it.

The answer you have been looking for. If I was in that 1950 whatever era, would I have invested in stocks let's say Japan? Of course. I would have bought sony happy with my earnings, then once that earnings dropped because of Samsung or whatever, I'm out the door, and into Samsung. I wish you learn one thing. The stock market is a vehicle, we investors are drivers. A vehicle going to crash, doesn't mean investors have to go with it. We choose how to enter and how to exit.

Cheers.

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Wow 1989, do you wish to travel back in time and purchase your shares?

Do I care what monkeys ate during those times?

Investing is a forward looking perspective. We are not historians, you could go back to 1950 all you want, that will not make you any money. Investors are only interested in today, and how it will affect tomorrow, and the potential income the future will bring. But that doesn't mean we ignore history completely, the max we go back is 10-15 years, the rest is irrelevant.

For your history interest, I opened google max years for Nikkei.

1999 16,000

Now 15,400 Not bad, even the most unlucky inexperienced investor buying at the tip, has almost broken even if he bought an index fund, not to mention the dividends.

For my personal interest, Nikkei 5 years.

2009 10,000

Now 15,400

That's what I am talking about. That's what we have been doing, money flowing in. Go ahead, keep proving to yourself how bad it is, the only person's mind you can convince is yourself and like-minded others. I'll keep earning, and you? Choice is yours. (Yes stocks are bad, very scary, stay away!)

You are missing or deliberately avoiding my point. Even if its 1989 it is still relevant because stock market investors claim it safe to simply buy sit on your investment long-term?

If someone was as bullish as you are now in 1989 had started investing in the Nikkei in 1989 as of today they would still be 50% poorer? alt=facepalm.gif>

Fair enough. But I would like to defend myself in that case, I did not say "buy sit on your investment long term". That's what "internet gurus" say. I buy good companies, if they continue to do well, they are kept, if not, I kick them out the door. It never gets personal, just like hiring a staff. In out in out, all successful to me.

So you are correct with your stance, unintelligent investors will lose money, and not all investors will make money. Period. That's it. Me and others? We don't "ride" the whole train rail. We have enter points and exit points. We are the one who started the so called crashes, we leave simply as everything is overvalued. We enter again, when things are undervalued. Simple 1 2 3. Not hard. So yes you are correct, with your firm stance on the high point and today not making it back up, yes some unintelligent investors are poorer. But you can ask me again, during those times, did I become poorer, the answer is no, richer than ever before lol. If I could do it again, will I invest? Hell yeah!!

Japan, USA and many Euro countries are approaching debt saturation among the private economy. It is game over.

[watcharacters]

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Thai people invest in land in Thailand very long term - not just 15 years. They also invest in gold for medium term, like 15 years, but I hear many losing out in that market. School/University fees in the future need something more certain to just keep pace with the rate of increase of those fees. If I was in your shoes I'd look at the history of fees and plan accordingly...

The fundamentals are fundamental -- they will always be there The trick with any "investment" - as opposed to "deposit" - is to invest in whatever you are happy with and then time your exit to perfection ! If you buy land now there might be a 3 - 5 year slump in land prices just at the crucial time in 15 years when you need your money out. This is the nub of any investment -- timing. Having a defined exit date far in the future really makes it a lottery, whereas a flexible exit date will allow you to reap the maximum. Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered and all was well again as along as you could tighten your belt and tough it out.

" Look at all the downturns over the years things always recovered" alt=blink.png>

no they they didnt ?

short term graphs of indexes or indicators is no reflection on how specific investments are doing.

Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

.

Would you kindly help the rest of us poor mortals out and show us the right path?

" Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall."

PLEAse?

[JacChang]

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Japan, USA and many Euro countries are approaching debt saturation among the private economy. It is game over.

^^^

True

This crash will be one of the worst one we have ever seen before. More violent than let's say the past 20 years.

Why? Stocks are at their record highs, and overvalued. That is already a plummet of possible 20-40%

Bonds/Debts Already at their all time highs even. Interest are so dead low, yet no where to go. Possible Plummet 10-20%

Usually when stocks crash, people can escape to bonds, but bonds are already at their peak too.

Haha, it's like a balloon exploding everywhere.

BUT, ask yourself, what will happen?

That is the true question. What will our leaders do? What will happen to certain assets? Where will the money go?

Debt is high, do you think bonds will go default? Of course they will. What are my bonds? All investment grade AAA. Now is not the time for junk bonds.

What do governments do if they go in debt? Print more money, borrow more, what else? What happens to your cash you are holding, becomes thinner and thinner.

What happens to my stocks?

What happens to that glorious factory producing goods? Does the wall become thinner? Does my McDonald's store parking gets confiscated? Does it continue to feed people French fries? Earns money?

3 ways to play the game

1) Keep your money in cash (money printing, less value in money)

2) Bonds (Defaults)

3) Stocks

I know my decision.

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Just to be sure, I had to verify his posted graph. A simple google shows that it is not up to date. The up to date technical chart shows the Nikkei has indeed "return to previous highs". An interesting note, the past 5 years graph, shows a consistent earnings over 50%. And remember it's an index, which means consist of 80 bad apples and 20 good apples. Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall.

.

Would you kindly help the rest of us poor mortals out and show us the right path?

" Investors know to get those 20 good apples, so our earnings are way better than 50% claimed by indexes. Indexes prove nothing, it's just overall."

PLEAse?

Ok, repeat after me.

*Starts a holy chant*

First thing you look at is EPS. Take the total net profit (excluding extraordinary gains) divided by the number of shares. For easy maths, 1 eps is for every share you own you get 1 baht earnings. What would the price of this stock be? Remember, I make my own price valuations before I see the market price. If EPS is 1, I would pay max 17 baht for that share. That is roughly 6-7%. Next is the growth, the better the consistent earnings growth, the higher the price I will pay.

Most of my stocks, only goes up. No surprise. If my companies are so good, why should they go down?

The reason I don't give out the stocks by name is because that is not how you will learn. I rather you start with what I've said, and look through 500 stocks using that, and filter out for me the best 20. Then my friend, you have learned.

You are all welcome to check out settrade.com All the information is there, and in English. Information is there, knowledge is how you use that information. What I can see, is also available to you. If I am earning all these years, so can you.

[jpinx]

Does this need a work permit or an Ed visa ???

[orpheus454]

I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

This is a scam. Do not touch it with a barge pole.

[monkeycountry]

A couple of things: NEVER BUY PROPERTY IN THAILAND and gold is a terrible investment. Savings accounts in Thai banks pay poorly, usually not even keeping up with inflation.

The mutual funds mentioned by Ayg above are the way to go.

Wow just about everything wrong with that statement - gold is very attractively priced at the moment with future yields predicted to grow considerably from its current low position. Funnily enough Buffet was saying only last week he expected it to double over the period the OP has quoted.

Some Aberdeen funds are ok but they are no city darlings - I can't think of an Aberdeen fund that is leading its sector. There are far far better alternative funds with identical risk producing far healthier returns than the ones quoted above AND with lower fees!

Double over 16 years is what, appx. 4.5% increase per year? Not much better than putting your money in a bank account, where the increase (interest) is guaranteed unlike gold, and not much more than inflation either. If Mr. Buffet is right, I would stay away from both gold and bank accounts. Note as well, I am quite sure Mr. Buffet has earlier proclaimed gold to be a bad investment, and also that he does not invest in it.

[Deacon Bell]

I will probably go:

5 Baht of gold: 100k.

BAY 2.35% (or something similar): 100k. Until I decide to put it someplace else.

Mutual Fund: 100k.

Not a lot by any means, but will be interesting over the next 16 years or so, and should help fund their university fees a bit.

Thanks for all the input.

Expect a 'Starting a Mutual Fund for absolute beginners' thread soon.

Edited September 1, 2014 by Deacon Bell

[monkeycountry]

I actually trust this big Asian firm more than the bank in Laos. Everything is a risk. You want to keep it minimal. 6% return a month is more than 60% annually. They invest it for you.. I'm joining up because I seen it with my own eyes. The return and bank statement. A lady invested $50000 she is receiving $4000 every month. Above 30k is 8% return monthly. No black jack gambling. All legal

Well give us the name then.

8% monthly return is simply not even remotely possible.

I don't even think Bernard Madoff's "investors" got that much when times were good

[meand]

I will probably go:

5 Baht of gold: 100k.

BAY 2.35% (or something similar): 100k. Until I decide to put it someplace else.

Mutual Fund: 100k.

Not a lot by any means, but will be interesting over the next 16 years or so, and should help fund their university fees a bit.

Thanks for all the input.

Expect a 'Starting a Mutual Fund for absolute beginners' thread soon.

I really think you are buying way too much gold. I have made this mistake. I will never touch gold again, but I don't condemn the classic "5 or 10% of your port" advice, that is great advice I think. It is not about what I have made money with, and what I have lost with either, I just don't view gold as a good, solid long term investment. Look at the historic gold prices to see what I mean.

I think you have a good base for your decisions, what I would do is subtract from the gold amount, and add it to bay account and perhaps put it into the mutual funds when the prices are a little more attractive. Either that or just put it straight into the mutual funds. It isn't that much money, and on a 15 year time scale the numbers are really on your side going the mutual fund route.

Edited September 1, 2014 by meand

[AyG]

I will probably go:

5 Baht of gold: 100k.

BAY 2.35% (or something similar): 100k. Until I decide to put it someplace else.

Mutual Fund: 100k.

Not a lot by any means, but will be interesting over the next 16 years or so, and should help fund their university fees a bit.

Thanks for all the input.

Expect a 'Starting a Mutual Fund for absolute beginners' thread soon.

I really think you are buying way too much gold.

You're spot on with that. Gold is a lousy investment. It's little more than "a legalized Ponzi scheme"*.

In 1850 the price was 18.93 USD/Oz. eventually soaring to the giddy heights of 19.95 in 1919 - that's a rise of 5.4% in 69 years - a return of roughly 0.09%/year (simple interest).

From 1934 to 1966 it went from 34.69 to 35.13 - a rise of 1.3% in 32 years - 0.04%/year.

People have short memories and think of the spectacular rise (and subsequent fall) of gold over recent years, but something that can go for decades without gaining in value and/or providing income is, to me, a lousy investment - in fact, not an investment at all.

* Quote from http://citywire.co.uk/money/reynolds-brands-gold-legalised-ponzi-scheme/a768203

[Deacon Bell]

I may forgo the gold. We bought some at her birth which is set to be her 21st birthday present. Though some of it is a nice Buddha amulet and a nice simple ring, so hopefully will be kept as something meaningful to her that she will keep and perhaps pass on, rather than things to be sold for cash.

[monkeycountry]

Keep in mind when investing with/for Thai family that the average Thai does not know anything about funds, bonds, stocks etc., hence their investment preferences are land/house, gold and bank accounts, simply because that is the only investment options they know of.

Edited September 1, 2014 by monkeycountry

[Deacon Bell]

Keep in mind when investing with/for Thai family that the average Thai does not know anything about funds, bonds, stocks etc.,

So pretty much the same as me then.

[JacChang]

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I will probably go:

5 Baht of gold: 100k.

BAY 2.35% (or something similar): 100k. Until I decide to put it someplace else.

Mutual Fund: 100k.

Not a lot by any means, but will be interesting over the next 16 years or so, and should help fund their university fees a bit.

Thanks for all the input.

Expect a 'Starting a Mutual Fund for absolute beginners' thread soon.

There are some people who will tell you gold is an investment, that's why most people put so much into it. But it's not. It's simply a hedge against risk when other asset classes fail. It's an insurance. Gold itself does not bring value, and most would argue that it is the "true value of money" where our currency money loses value. But it isn't anymore, there is no direct correlation.

Simply put, in a 10 year time, stocks will do poorly 2-3 years. People who need money in that exact 2-3 years may lose their principal money. During those 2-3 years, stocks value drop and other assets may drop, and in theory, everyone escapes to gold as the safety haven, thus having the gold price rocket up. Think of it as a see saw, when one goes down, the other goes up, merely through expectations and the need for safety. In other words, during this 2-3 bad years, if you really needed to use money, if you convert your shares into money, you will incur losses. But during this time, if you convert your gold to money, you will most likely incur huge gains.

Gold is simply a hedge when others have failed.

Personally I suggest 5-10% of total portfolio, but keep in mind, if you do not need to use any of this money, I suggest 0% gold. Each of these investment are tools, you need to understand their purpose and how you will use them. Some people think "Oh I must have gold in my portfolio". That is a wrong perception. Just because you buy a bit of everything doesn't mean you are successful at asset allocation.

So what types of people should buy gold?

Those that live off their investments and are dependent on it OR those that will need the money in a short time frame.

Let's say this person has 5,000,000 in stocks paying 7% dividend. That's 350,000 per year.

He earns that amount happily and spends it normally.

However on the "stock crash year" his dividends decrease, or he just had to buy a car.

If he were to use the 1,000,000 of the 5,000,000 to convert into cash, he would be only getting 600,000 of his real principal 1,000,000.

If he had prepare gold of 1,000,000 of the 5,000,000 to convert into cash during that year, he would be getting 1,400,000 of his real principal 1,000,000.

But in your case 16-17 years, there's really no need for gold. As you say this is for university use, so during this time any medical bills, new car purchase, etc. You do have funds prepare for those right? And you will never touch this university fund? Then leave gold out. Having it, won't make your investment portfolio any safer, but guarantee a waste in your portfolio sitting there doing nothing. It also pulls your returns down. 300,000 earning 5% makes you 15,000 per year. In 17 years you will have 255,000 extra, totaling 85% returns if you didn't reinvest the dividends.

With 100,000 gold, your actual investment is only 200,000. Because gold is not value producing, it is worthless sitting there. 200,000 earning 5% makes you 10,000 per year. 10,000 out of your total portfolio of 300,000 is 3.33% Do you see the importance of this? With this asset allocation, you earn the same as any high interest deposit, BUT your risk is equivalent to "higher risk asset classes". What's the point? I just bought a 42 month A-grade thai bonds for 3.5% interest. Asset allocation is like cooking, you mix the right amount of salt and sugar and sauces for the dish and situation. Do it wrong, and it's a failure. More is not necessary better. It's the ability to choose what is needed in the portfolio during this time.

If you need your money this year or next year, of course buy gold. Other than that long term? No.

During this years, you would have gone through "3 stock crash cycles". Just don't panic or sell during this time, keep it, it will go up after like it always have, yawn, nothing new.

[Deacon Bell]

Great, thanks.

[Asiantravel]

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I will probably go:

5 Baht of gold: 100k.

BAY 2.35% (or something similar): 100k. Until I decide to put it someplace else.

Mutual Fund: 100k.

Not a lot by any means, but will be interesting over the next 16 years or so, and should help fund their university fees a bit.

Thanks for all the input.

Expect a 'Starting a Mutual Fund for absolute beginners' thread soon.

There are some people who will tell you gold is an investment, that's why most people put so much into it. But it's not. It's simply a hedge against risk when other asset classes fail. It's an insurance. Gold itself does not bring value, and most would argue that it is the "true value of money" where our currency money loses value. But it isn't anymore, there is no direct correlation.

Simply put, in a 10 year time, stocks will do poorly 2-3 years. People who need money in that exact 2-3 years may lose their principal money. During those 2-3 years, stocks value drop and other assets may drop, and in theory, everyone escapes to gold as the safety haven, thus having the gold price rocket up. Think of it as a see saw, when one goes down, the other goes up, merely through expectations and the need for safety. In other words, during this 2-3 bad years, if you really needed to use money, if you convert your shares into money, you will incur losses. But during this time, if you convert your gold to money, you will most likely incur huge gains.

Gold is simply a hedge when others have failed.

Personally I suggest 5-10% of total portfolio, but keep in mind, if you do not need to use any of this money, I suggest 0% gold. Each of these investment are tools, you need to understand their purpose and how you will use them. Some people think "Oh I must have gold in my portfolio". That is a wrong perception. Just because you buy a bit of everything doesn't mean you are successful at asset allocation.

So what types of people should buy gold?

Those that live off their investments and are dependent on it OR those that will need the money in a short time frame.

Let's say this person has 5,000,000 in stocks paying 7% dividend. That's 350,000 per year.

He earns that amount happily and spends it normally.

However on the "stock crash year" his dividends decrease, or he just had to buy a car.

If he were to use the 1,000,000 of the 5,000,000 to convert into cash, he would be only getting 600,000 of his real principal 1,000,000.

If he had prepare gold of 1,000,000 of the 5,000,000 to convert into cash during that year, he would be getting 1,400,000 of his real principal 1,000,000.

But in your case 16-17 years, there's really no need for gold. As you say this is for university use, so during this time any medical bills, new car purchase, etc. You do have funds prepare for those right? And you will never touch this university fund? Then leave gold out. Having it, won't make your investment portfolio any safer, but guarantee a waste in your portfolio sitting there doing nothing. It also pulls your returns down. 300,000 earning 5% makes you 15,000 per year. In 17 years you will have 255,000 extra, totaling 85% returns if you didn't reinvest the dividends.

With 100,000 gold, your actual investment is only 200,000. Because gold is not value producing, it is worthless sitting there. 200,000 earning 5% makes you 10,000 per year. 10,000 out of your total portfolio of 300,000 is 3.33% Do you see the importance of this? With this asset allocation, you earn the same as any high interest deposit, BUT your risk is equivalent to "higher risk asset classes". What's the point? I just bought a 42 month A-grade thai bonds for 3.5% interest. Asset allocation is like cooking, you mix the right amount of salt and sugar and sauces for the dish and situation. Do it wrong, and it's a failure. More is not necessary better. It's the ability to choose what is needed in the portfolio during this time.

If you need your money this year or next year, of course buy gold. Other than that long term? No.

During this years, you would have gone through "3 stock crash cycles". Just don't panic or sell during this time, keep it, it will go up after like it always have, yawn, nothing new.

" But in your case 16-17 years, there's really no need for gold "

JacChang must know something that two thirds of the world's population doesn’t ( i.e. The Indians, Chinese, Russian must all be wrong )

Edited September 2, 2014 by Asiantravel

[mccw]

^ regards to the above also;

What if when uni time comes it's at the point in cycle when stocks are down and gold is up? Not like he can ask the kids to hold off on uni for 3 years or so until the market swings back.

Also look at Japan past example - some times the market doesn't recover for extremely long or at all.

If price stocks in gold then "new highs" or "record highs" in dollar terms doesn't look so great either.

Even so- If buying at peak and then crash and riding it through to next peak then your just about back where you started 5 to 7 years later.

No perfect investment but worth considering where you think we are right now in the cycle. You have time so no rush to invest the money. Your 30-30-40 is ok I think and then when next major crash occurred then move the gold and cash in to the stocks.

Bond right now in my view for example have lost all account of proving risk and purely lead by chasers of yield/ income.

To me it looks like bound for something to go wrong and trigger a turn. Could be Ukraine / Russia causing EU US sanctions to top the euro zone in to deflationary tail spin; who knows. Multiple risk factors across the world.

I'm in a similar dilemma; but decided to keep out of the stock & bond / funds until the next clear crash occurred. Preferring land; but this is quite specialist with choosing areas; catching best prices and developing infrastructure and subdivisions to add value; bit of a different ball game to buy what you fancy and just hold on to it with a wish for caps growth. But holding land on a decent location over such a long term period still a good bet I think.

3 senarios:

1) western / Thai/ global economy down turn- retirees and global peoples still wishing to move to Thailand for nicer life than home country, live here helping to push up prices- boomer generation exacerbating it especially; leading to continued growth despite say export problems. Plus in ten years ish the Thai wealthy generation starting to retire on mass also.

2) western economy and Thai economy does well too; rebounds- people still want to come here and with more money - pushing up prices.

3) everything falls apart- at least kids still have Åland to build a modest house on; small biz and garden; live a simple life- better than broke and landless. Paper assets can literally become worthless while land can still be useful even if can't sell at huge profit. Gold will still retain some value but maybe no use and small value if wrong time; where as land can always have a use. Even if just to live on it i

[jpinx]

To the OP -- Here's a couple of historical gold price graphs -- just don't forget the effect of inflation.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/gold/all/

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

[AyG]

if]" But in your case 16-17 years, there's really no need for gold[/font] "

JacChang must know something that two thirds of the world's population doesnt ( i.e. The Indians, Chinese, Russian must all be wrong )

JacChang does know something that many people in backwards countries don't know. For them, they have until recently only had access to money and precious metals to store value long term, so buying gold, which doesn't corrode and has the advantage of being yellow and shiny was for them a good option. The vast majority of peoples in those countries are poorly educated, and most certainly not experienced investors. People now have access to far better investments than gold, but tradition dies hard.

Personally I think JacChang was being generous when he suggested an allocation of 5-10%, apart from that what he wrote was spot on.

[Asiantravel]

if]" But in your case 16-17 years, there's really no need for gold[/font] "

JacChang must know something that two thirds of the world's population doesnt ( i.e. The Indians, Chinese, Russian must all be wrong )

JacChang does know something that many people in backwards countries don't know. For them, they have until recently only had access to money and precious metals to store value long term, so buying gold, which doesn't corrode and has the advantage of being yellow and shiny was for them a good option. The vast majority of peoples in those countries are poorly educated, and most certainly not experienced investors. People now have access to far better investments than gold, but tradition dies hard.

Personally I think JacChang was being generous when he suggested an allocation of 5-10%, apart from that what he wrote was spot on.

Now that's an entirely new one………….. India, China and Russia are “ backward countries “ with a population who’s vast majority “ are poorly educated “who have only recently had “ access to money “

I would say the ones that are poorly educated are those around the world who want to downplay the substantial growing risks of a financial system which is based on central bankers printing money like it's confetti............

Anyway I prefer to believe the version that the reason so many Asians choose to buy physical gold as a vehicle in which to store their wealth is because so many of them have little trust in the value of paper money

India has a history of gold ownership, spurred by long-term experience of a weak rupee. Only a fool leaves rupees on deposit, because they usually buy less and less every year. Alternative stores of value, such as equities, have only entered the mainstream on the back of the economic boom, and their performance on the whole has been nowhere as good or certain as gold.

http://www.goldmoney.com/research/research-archive/the-indian-governments-gold-folly

Edited September 2, 2014 by Asiantravel

[AyG]

Now that's an entirely new one.. India, China and Russia are backward countries with a population whos vast majority are poorly educated who have only recently had access to money

Please don't twist my words. The point I made was that to store value for a long time the vast majority of people in those countries had to choose between money or precious metals. They didn't have the choice of equity or bond markets.

Anyway I prefer to believe the version that the reason so many Asians choose to buy physical gold as a vehicle in which to store their wealth is because so many of them have little trust in the value of paper money

But the choice isn't just between money in the bank (or under the bed) or gold. And there are much better investments available for long term growth and income than either of them. The majority of peoplein Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives.

Edit: fixed quoting

Edited September 2, 2014 by AyG

[jpinx]

Now that's an entirely new one.. India, China and Russia are backward countries with a population whos vast majority are poorly educated who have only recently had access to money

Please don't twist my words. The point I made was that to store value for a long time the vast majority of people in those countries had to choose between money or precious metals. They didn't have the choice of equity or bond markets.

Anyway I prefer to believe the version that the reason so many Asians choose to buy physical gold as a vehicle in which to store their wealth is because so many of them have little trust in the value of paper money

But the choice isn't just between money in the bank (or under the bed) or gold. And there are much better investments available for long term growth and income than either of them. The majority of peoplein Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives.

Edit: fixed quoting

So true -- sometimes the best investment is in a business you know inside out.

[Asiantravel]

Now that's an entirely new one.. India, China and Russia are backward countries with a population whos vast majority are poorly educated who have only recently had access to money

Please don't twist my words. The point I made was that to store value for a long time the vast majority of people in those countries had to choose between money or precious metals. They didn't have the choice of equity or bond markets.

Anyway I prefer to believe the version that the reason so many Asians choose to buy physical gold as a vehicle in which to store their wealth is because so many of them have little trust in the value of paper money

But the choice isn't just between money in the bank (or under the bed) or gold. And there are much better investments available for long term growth and income than either of them. The majority of peoplein Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives.

Edit: fixed quoting

" The majority of people in Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives."

And many people everywhere who advocate investing in equities right now are simply ignorant of the mindset of the real experts and how they feel about stock-markets that have been driven virtually in a straight line up-not on the back of fundamentals but solely on the back of money printing by governments.

Example -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group manages $28.1 billion in assets but is returning money to investors because of a lack of investment opportunities .This would be only the second time Baupost will be returning money to investors in the Boston-based investment firm’s 31-year history.

He says “ If the economy is so fragile that the government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse “

Edited September 2, 2014 by Asiantravel

[AyG]

And many people everywhere who advocate investing in equities right now are simply ignorant of the mindset of the real experts and how they feel about stock-markets that have been driven virtually in a straight line up-not on the back of fundamentals but solely on the back of money printing by governments.

Example -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group manages $28.1 billion in assets but is returning money to investors because of a lack of investment opportunities .This would be only the second time Baupost will be returning money to investors in the Boston-based investment firm’s 31-year history.

Your reference to Baupost Group rather defeats your argument. Baupost runs hedge funds investing in a wide range of assets - not just equities. The fact that their returning money is because they can't find suitable opportunities in any asset class, including gold - not just equities.

Incidentally, as a manager of funds they are not an investment company, but a bunch of short-term opportunists - a very different mindset from the OP who wants to invest for 16 years.

[anon676545345]

Now that's an entirely new one.. India, China and Russia are backward countries with a population whos vast majority are poorly educated who have only recently had access to money

Please don't twist my words. The point I made was that to store value for a long time the vast majority of people in those countries had to choose between money or precious metals. They didn't have the choice of equity or bond markets.

Anyway I prefer to believe the version that the reason so many Asians choose to buy physical gold as a vehicle in which to store their wealth is because so many of them have little trust in the value of paper money

But the choice isn't just between money in the bank (or under the bed) or gold. And there are much better investments available for long term growth and income than either of them. The majority of peoplein Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives.

Edit: fixed quoting

" The majority of people in Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives."

And many people everywhere who advocate investing in equities right now are simply ignorant of the mindset of the real experts and how they feel about stock-markets that have been driven virtually in a straight line up-not on the back of fundamentals but solely on the back of money printing by governments.

Example -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group manages $28.1 billion in assets but is returning money to investors because of a lack of investment opportunities .This would be only the second time Baupost will be returning money to investors in the Boston-based investment firm’s 31-year history.

He says “ If the economy is so fragile that the government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse “

One of the driving factors behind the run up in equities has been companies taking advantage of cheap liquidity and utilizing it to fund share buy backs, less shares in issue equates to higher prices. As a rough guide the US 10year and 3month yield curve indicator has been a good guide on when to exit equities, or wait till the people who were buying gold in 2011 start buying stocks.

[Asiantravel]

Now that's an entirely new one.. India, China and Russia are backward countries with a population whos vast majority are poorly educated who have only recently had access to money

Please don't twist my words. The point I made was that to store value for a long time the vast majority of people in those countries had to choose between money or precious metals. They didn't have the choice of equity or bond markets.

But the choice isn't just between money in the bank (or under the bed) or gold. And there are much better investments available for long term growth and income than either of them. The majority of peoplein Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives.

Edit: fixed quoting

" The majority of people in Asia and elsewhere who invest primarily in gold are simply ignorant of the better alternatives."

And many people everywhere who advocate investing in equities right now are simply ignorant of the mindset of the real experts and how they feel about stock-markets that have been driven virtually in a straight line up-not on the back of fundamentals but solely on the back of money printing by governments.

Example -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group manages $28.1 billion in assets but is returning money to investors because of a lack of investment opportunities .This would be only the second time Baupost will be returning money to investors in the Boston-based investment firm’s 31-year history.

He says “ If the economy is so fragile that the government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse “

One of the driving factors behind the run up in equities has been companies taking advantage of cheap liquidity and utilizing it to fund share buy backs, less shares in issue equates to higher prices. As a rough guide the US 10year and 3month yield curve indicator has been a good guide on when to exit equities, or wait till the people who were buying gold in 2011 start buying stocks.

is this the formation of the head of a massive head and shoulders pattern here ?

(i.e. taking into account when the correction occurs this time there could never be such a massive QE programme again on the scale that we saw after 2008 without even worse consequences)

Edited September 5, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Aussieroaming]

Monkey country ....you are so so wrong about Thai Family's not knowing about investing anything except gold, land etc

My wife, two sisters, brother and both parents trade on the SET daily...yes there are many day traders and long term stock investors in Thailand.

My wife earns a very good living day trading but she treats it for what it is, a full time job.

Certainly there is a lot of volumetric trade on the SET so some Thais are definitely in the know.