Scottish independence: Yes camp hails 'momentum'

[Chopperboy]

What she actually said was "Well, I hope people will think very carefully about the future." which doesn't seem to me to favour one side or the other.

Its coded, designed to be interpreted either way - but from a woman with her history I know which way I'd be taking it.

Her history?

A woman with a Scottish mother who loves Scotland and spends as much time there as she possibly can.

So, Chopperboy, which way are you taking her remark?

From a woman who gave knighthoods to everyone from Ceausescu to Mugabe, from Jimmy Saville to Kissinger, from a woman who signed Michael X's death warrant, from a woman who owns more than half the banks in the former British dependants and has massive share holding with Soros & the Rothschilds in Quantium NV fund, from a woman who made $100bn on just one arms for oil deal, from a woman who's daughter-in-law lies in a tomb with black swans swimming around her - I'd take it as a polite warning...

[7by7]

What are you on about?

Maybe you should take more water with it, and then read up on the British constitution and what real power the Monarch actually has.

I'll give you a clue; none at all.

[BKK Blues Brother]

[inutil]

A Very Good post, I suspect everything you say is spot on, now can you give us you're thoughts on WHY more people are deciding on a "YES". For instance are they basing their judgment on facts supplied by unbiased observers, by the Nationalist argument or on what they perceive as the negativity of the "NO" side.

One of my friends once got it in her head i was a massive liar. The fact of me trying to explain i wasnt in fact a massive liar just proved what a massive liar i was and why i couldnt be trusted.

I think that might be it

The most interesting is the labour supporters switching. And i really think it stems from the most simple of reasons: they currently hate the PLP. It needs to pander to right wing sentiment to stay relevant in England and win the next election, and that strategy not only cost them the Scottish election in 2011 (a fair sacrifice), but its also costing them the referendum (an unexpected sacrifice). I think they really thought that all would be forgiven by their supporters on something as big as independence and we'd 'do the sensible thing' because (as ive often said) the PLP is the greatest hope for equity and fairness in the UK. Theres no labour supporter i think who does not believe that to be true. They might feel its gone a bit wayward, but its more like an elastic band. Theyll spring back soon enough. But its been taxing waiting for them to do so. The death of John Smith was an enormous blow. Perhaps the elastic just snapped and this referendum is the first time theyve realised. Only now theyre sort of stuck.

In their heart of hearts i really believe that THEY believe in federalism as a way to really move the country forward and bring us a more fair and equitable distribution of power. But they cant deliver it without sacrificing the swing voters in the south east. So they cant seriously offer it. They can make noises about it or guarded statements. But it unravels under even the lightest of scrutiny. Tories have already rubbished the idea. John Redwood is taking great delight in forcing conditions on it. Ed Balls yesterday argued it would be potentially unworkable and throw up a more pressing form of the West Lothian question when trying to pass UK budgets as a labour party without scottish MPs. Andrew Neil tore into it yesterday as well. If that clip starts making the rounds, you can bet a few of the hangers on will be thinking a vote for no IS just a vote to keep things exactly as they are. And thats not the message the no camp wants to send at all. Especially to floating labour supporters who seem to hold the balance of power.

Basically its a collapse in trust of the PLP (and an absolute collapse in trust with the Scottish Labour Party). And they only just realised it last week. The worst thing is they know that its not just in Scotland. Scotland is a wake up call to them, but theyre riding high in the polls... so what to do? They cant do shit. they either let Scotland free through not offering anything to their supporters or they lose the next election by spooking the south east through intervention. The perception might well be that theyre leaving their supporters to fend for themselves and giving them nothing to defend themselves with against the optimism, vigor and positivity of the Yes campaign. So theyll switch. Many will stay of course. But enough will just think its time to break with the PLP and go their own way with their own labour party.

Maybe Who knows? Certainly not me.

[jpinx]

As is true of royalty in almost every monarchy in the world. Influence maybe, but power -- none. It was part of the deal to keep those royal families in place.

[nontabury]

I'd agree with the elusiveness of the definition of democracy, but let's not beat about the bush -- Scotland is just about to possibly declare UDI. Remember how that worked for Rhodesia?

Having said that -- remember that the Union is based on conquest and coercion -- it was not a happy alliance - check the history books written by Scottish historians. The Scots at that time and since, over the last 300-odd years - in their usual pragmatic way - accepted their situation, but now they have a chance to speak. The ties with England during the last 75-odd years do not lessen their dream of independence. Scottish regiments will make a superb defense force, already in place and ready to help out NATO; EU; etc as needed from day one.

UK made a huge blunder when they forced this YES/NO vote -- devomax would have won the day hands down -- but Westminster MPs' egos got in the way For that reason alone I hope Scotland goes independent and does some serious horse trading during the division of spoils. Westminster needs a serious lesson - they are not going to be holding all the aces (taxation) for long. Come on Cornwall, Yorkshire, et al -- go for devomax for the regions and strip Westminster of it's much abused power!

P.S. Catalonia, Brittany and others can do it too The EU will change if all the members are smaller, and there's lots of them

Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.

One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.

In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.

[Chopperboy]

What are you on about?

Maybe you should take more water with it, and then read up on the British constitution and what real power the Monarch actually has.

I'll give you a clue; none at all.

That's the cover story...

[jpinx]

A Very Good post, I suspect everything you say is spot on, now can you give us you're thoughts on WHY more people are deciding on a "YES". For instance are they basing their judgment on facts supplied by unbiased observers, by the Nationalist argument or on what they perceive as the negativity of the "NO" side.

One of my friends once got it in her head i was a massive liar. The fact of me trying to explain i wasnt in fact a massive liar just proved what a massive liar i was and why i couldnt be trusted.

I think that might be it

The most interesting is the labour supporters switching. And i really think it stems from the most simple of reasons: they currently hate the PLP. It needs to pander to right wing sentiment to stay relevant in England and win the next election, and that strategy not only cost them the Scottish election in 2011 (a fair sacrifice), but its also costing them the referendum (an unexpected sacrifice). I think they really thought that all would be forgiven by their supporters on something as big as independence and we'd 'do the sensible thing' because (as ive often said) the PLP is the greatest hope for equity and fairness in the UK. Theres no labour supporter i think who does not believe that to be true. They might feel its gone a bit wayward, but its more like an elastic band. Theyll spring back soon enough. But its been taxing waiting for them to do so. The death of John Smith was an enormous blow. Perhaps the elastic just snapped and this referendum is the first time theyve realised. Only now theyre sort of stuck.

In their heart of hearts i really believe that THEY believe in federalism as a way to really move the country forward and bring us a more fair and equitable distribution of power. But they cant deliver it without sacrificing the swing voters in the south east. So they cant seriously offer it. They can make noises about it or guarded statements. But it unravels under even the lightest of scrutiny. Tories have already rubbished the idea. John Redwood is taking great delight in forcing conditions on it. Ed Balls yesterday argued it would be potentially unworkable and throw up a more pressing form of the West Lothian question when trying to pass UK budgets as a labour party without scottish MPs. Andrew Neil tore into it yesterday as well. If that clip starts making the rounds, you can bet a few of the hangers on will be thinking a vote for no IS just a vote to keep things exactly as they are. And thats not the message the no camp wants to send at all. Especially to floating labour supporters who seem to hold the balance of power.

Basically its a collapse in trust of the PLP (and an absolute collapse in trust with the Scottish Labour Party). And they only just realised it last week. The worst thing is they know that its not just in Scotland. Scotland is a wake up call to them, but theyre riding high in the polls... so what to do? They cant do shit. they either let Scotland free through not offering anything to their supporters or they lose the next election by spooking the south east through intervention. The perception might well be that theyre leaving their supporters to fend for themselves and giving them nothing to defend themselves with against the optimism, vigor and positivity of the Yes campaign. So theyll switch. Many will stay of course. But enough will just think its time to break with the PLP and go their own way with their own labour party.

Maybe Who knows? Certainly not me.

I've posted on this before -- the 18th is NOT a general election. Nothing will change politically after 18th. The next elections are 2016 whether Scotland is independent or not. The Scots are well aware of this and they are not much influenced by all the political huffing and puffing -- hence 93% have chosen and say they are most unlikely to change their minds. As I posted before -- Scotland's independence now rests with 7% of the voters who have said they don't know, but my feedback tells me that they actually have decided, but they're not telling anyone for various reasons - some of which have been mentioned in these threads.

Somewhere else the comment was rightly made that this is a vote of confidence in Scotland. It's an emotional vote - not a logical one.

[kaobang]

remember Margaret Thatcher then vote

[inutil]

I'd agree with the elusiveness of the definition of democracy, but let's not beat about the bush -- Scotland is just about to possibly declare UDI. Remember how that worked for Rhodesia?

Having said that -- remember that the Union is based on conquest and coercion -- it was not a happy alliance - check the history books written by Scottish historians. The Scots at that time and since, over the last 300-odd years - in their usual pragmatic way - accepted their situation, but now they have a chance to speak. The ties with England during the last 75-odd years do not lessen their dream of independence. Scottish regiments will make a superb defense force, already in place and ready to help out NATO; EU; etc as needed from day one.

UK made a huge blunder when they forced this YES/NO vote -- devomax would have won the day hands down -- but Westminster MPs' egos got in the way For that reason alone I hope Scotland goes independent and does some serious horse trading during the division of spoils. Westminster needs a serious lesson - they are not going to be holding all the aces (taxation) for long. Come on Cornwall, Yorkshire, et al -- go for devomax for the regions and strip Westminster of it's much abused power!

P.S. Catalonia, Brittany and others can do it too The EU will change if all the members are smaller, and there's lots of them

Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.

One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.

In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.

Absolutely correct. And it reinforces exactly what i said about the PLP above. None of them believed scotland would seriously go independent! theres just TOO MUCH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY involved. Theyd have to be absolutely stupid to buy into it! So why risk our political necks by offering them MORE power? We;d have to be stupid! Its totally unnecessary.

And so we have a 50/50 with momentum clearly in the yes camp less than a week to go until polling day and with every offer now on the table.

That 1 youguv poll showed that the UK was bluffing. The panic as they all came north of the border to love bomb scotland and offer us promises of definitely more powers will have been a massive neon sign to every yes voter that just maybe, these non-negotiable things, in the cold reality of September 19th, might just be suddenly open for discussion after all. The UK blinked first.

Its backfired about as bad as you can expect. It came too early. People have had their moment of doubt now. They should have been having it on Thursday.

[jpinx]

Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.

One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.

In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.

==================>>

I agree with a lot of what you argue regarding Westminster's flawed reasoning. As it stands now he's going to have a lot more disgruntled people on both sides of the border whatever the outcome. Cameron isn't the sharpest tool in the box, and his advisors have a lot to answer for when the proverbial hits the fan.

Meantime the post vote negotiations are going to be interesting because most of the decisions will be made by commercial bodies -- nothing to do with politics.

P.S. That's a reference to the post-vote negotiations regardless of the outcome. Either way, things are never going to be the same again

Edited September 15, 2014 by jpinx

[jpinx]

Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.

One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.

In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.

Absolutely correct. And it reinforces exactly what i said about the PLP above. None of them believed scotland would seriously go independent! theres just TOO MUCH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY involved. Theyd have to be absolutely stupid to buy into it! So why risk our political necks by offering them MORE power? We;d have to be stupid! Its totally unnecessary.

And so we have a 50/50 with momentum clearly in the yes camp less than a week to go until polling day and with every offer now on the table.

That 1 youguv poll showed that the UK was bluffing. The panic as they all came north of the border to love bomb scotland and offer us promises of definitely more powers will have been a massive neon sign to every yes voter that just maybe, these non-negotiable things, in the cold reality of September 19th, might just be suddenly open for discussion after all. The UK blinked first.

Its backfired about as bad as you can expect. It came too early. People have had their moment of doubt now. They should have been having it on Thursday.

===============>>

It's interesting to watch politicans self-destruct in public, but more interesting will be the massive re-shuffle regardless of which way the vote goes. Westminster made a huge mistake in the way they allowed Salmond to negotiate them into agreeing to the referendum. Scotland's referendum is going to change England as much, if not more, than Scotland -- regardless of the outcome.

Edited September 15, 2014 by jpinx

[rott]

I hear a tale from Pattaya of a yes vote Scotsman regaling a group of Englishmen and one other Scot with the need for Independence, he wound up with the stirring phrase "I need my freedom".

The previously silent Scot came out with "What you need is a <deleted> psychiatrist", and went on to explain that everyone in Scotland is two hundred quid a year better off than everyone else in the UK (amongst other things ).

This two hundred is a new one on me, is it a tax break or what?

[Neeranam]

I hear a tale from Pattaya of a yes vote Scotsman regaling a group of Englishmen and one other Scot with the need for Independence, he wound up with the stirring phrase "I need my freedom".

The previously silent Scot came out with "What you need is a <deleted> psychiatrist", and went on to explain that everyone in Scotland is two hundred quid a year better off than everyone else in the UK (amongst other things ).

This two hundred is a new one on me, is it a tax break or what?

Perhaps it's for all the atrocities England has committed against us starting with the Slaughter of up to 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick.

[nontabury]

I hear a tale from Pattaya of a yes vote Scotsman regaling a group of Englishmen and one other Scot with the need for Independence, he wound up with the stirring phrase "I need my freedom".

The previously silent Scot came out with "What you need is a f...ing psychiatrist", and went on to explain that everyone in Scotland is two hundred quid a year better off than everyone else in the UK (amongst other things ).

This two hundred is a new one on me, is it a tax break or what?

Perhaps it's for all the atrocities England has committed against us starting with the Slaughter of up to 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick.

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

[Neeranam]

I hear a tale from Pattaya of a yes vote Scotsman regaling a group of Englishmen and one other Scot with the need for Independence, he wound up with the stirring phrase "I need my freedom".

The previously silent Scot came out with "What you need is a f...ing psychiatrist", and went on to explain that everyone in Scotland is two hundred quid a year better off than everyone else in the UK (amongst other things ).

This two hundred is a new one on me, is it a tax break or what?

Perhaps it's for all the atrocities England has committed against us starting with the Slaughter of up to 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick.

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

I don't know what post 46 was.

It was many a year ago. I'm not surprised you didn't learn it in History - nothing much has changed with the English media still distorting the facts.

Try google if you don't believe me.

How relevant? Very relevant - incidents like this, the battle of Bannockburn (where we won our first independence war), etc shaped the Scottish psyche and even 30 years ago we learned songs like "Scots wha hey" at school.

Even now, smug Englishmen are telling us what is best for us - go annoy someone else - this isn't your fight/referendum.

[jpinx]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

OOoops-- forgot the wikipedia page link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Berwick_(1296)

Edited September 15, 2014 by jpinx

[MJP]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

In 1296? As in twelve ninety-six. As in 718 years ago?

[jpinx]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

In 1296? As in twelve ninety-six. As in 718 years ago?

For the benefit of historical accuracy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_Scottish_Independence

[MJP]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

In 1296? As in twelve ninety-six. As in 718 years ago?

For the benefit of historical accuracy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_Scottish_Independence

. . . ended 657 years ago.

People never even had a bath back then!

[nontabury]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

OOoops-- forgot the wikipedia page link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Berwick_(1296)

Thanks for that reference, so the figure was 10,000 not as stated by Neeranam 25000.

Yes, in those those times,720 yrs ago many bad things were done by both sides. The same as the Germans killing some of my relatives within living memory, however I don't hold any grudges against present day Germans. But then I'm not a small minded bigoted nationalist.

The last remark was not aimed at you jpinx , but at the poster of post 46.

[MJP]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

OOoops-- forgot the wikipedia page link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Berwick_(1296)

Thanks for that reference, so the figure was 10,000 not as stated by Neeranam 25000.

Yes, in those those times,720 yrs ago many bad things were done by both sides. The same as the Germans killing some of my relatives within living memory, however I don't hold any grudges against present day Germans. But then I'm not a small minded bigoted nationalist.

The last remark was not aimed at you jpinx , but at the poster of post 46.

Then of course there's the C word. Back in 1746.

[jpinx]

So this is the best you can come up with after Post 46.

I must admit I don't know of the slaughter of 25,000 innocent civilians in Berwick, perhaps you can supply a reference to this event, starting off with how many centuries ago it took place, and how relevant it is in 2014.

==========================>>

The 30th of March 1296 AD Sacking of Berwick upon Tweed, King Edward ordered the massacre as an example to the rest of Scotland

Lots much worse things have happened since then,,,,,,,

In 1296? As in twelve ninety-six. As in 718 years ago?

For the benefit of historical accuracy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wars_of_Scottish_Independence

. . . ended 657 years ago.

People never even had a bath back then!

Can you still smell them ?

[MJP]

^^ Yes.

[Johnniey]

^^ Yes.

I feel insulted by your derogatory remarks about Scotland and what relevance is Rab Nesbit? Typical English w@n**r

I see The Independent has Yes 8 points ahead.

[MJP]

^^ Yes.

I feel insulted by your derogatory remarks about Scotland and what relevance is Rab Nesbit? Typical English w@n**r

I see The Independent has Yes 8 points ahead.

That's the spirit!!!

[Johnniey]

Ever wonder why the Scots, Welsh, Irish get on so famously? The common hatred of someone. Throw in the French, Germans and Spanish too.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Johnniey

[MJP]

Ever wonder why the Scots, Welsh, Irish get on so famously? The common hatred of someone. Throw in the French, Germans and Spanish too.

The grog?

[nontabury]

^^ Yes.

I feel insulted by your derogatory remarks about Scotland and what relevance is Rab Nesbit? Typical English w@n**r

I see The Independent has Yes 8 points ahead.

Read post 46, it might make you feel better.

[MJP]

^^ Yes.

I feel insulted by your derogatory remarks about Scotland and what relevance is Rab Nesbit? Typical English w@n**r

I see The Independent has Yes 8 points ahead.

Read post 46, it might make you feel better.

I wouldn't take any of this seriously, it's just Scots and Englush ribbing each other.