The Prayuth government's strategic dilemmas: Opinion

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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
The Prayuth government's strategic dilemmas
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Supreme Commander General Tanasak Patimapragorn is Thailand's 47th foreign minister. His arrival has created an unusually high expectation within the country. With his experience in security and diplomacy, it is hoped he will be able to understand and devise a foreign policy that protects the national interest and strengthens regional stability and prosperity.

Tanasak told reporters briefly after taking up the position on Friday that Thailand needs to plan strategically in the short, medium and long term. If that is his intention, he must do it right away. From now on, there are no more excuses for thinking in a silo among the top security and diplomatic decision-makers. Previously, whenever national security issues came to the fore, Defence and Foreign Affairs officials often traded accusations over the lack of timely responses and action.

During the country's recent history and diplomacy, the two ministries seldom worked in tandem due to different threat perceptions, work ethics and turf issues.

Now, the country suddenly has a "three-in-one" crusader — Supreme Commander, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister—the most powerful chief to occupy the Saranrom Palace. All bucks stop with him.

In his policy statement last week at the National Legislative Assembly, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was succinct that under his watch, domestic issues would be his major task. However, two points needed to be highlighted among the eleven policy priorities — number two on national security and diplomacy; and the number seven on Thailand's role in the Asean Community (AC).

On the security side, the current government is focusing on transnational crimes and the insurgency in three provinces of Thailand. One obvious reason has been the severity of foreign condemnation about human trafficking and transnational crimes which have increased over the years causing severe damage to Thailand's international standing. Then, there is a prevailing fear that southern Thailand could be used as a haven for extremists with foreign links.

Without doubt, relations with neighbouring countries with land and maritime boundaries would be on top of this government's agenda. Prayuth's first foreign visit to Myanmar — with the 2400-km common border they share — is a calculated one. Stable and trustful relations are pivotal to settle the status of 4 million migrant workers from Myanmar as well as the border's myriad of security issues, drug trafficking in particular. At this juncture, Myanmar is Thailand's most important neighbouring country.

Currently, ties between Thai-Myanmar military leaders are very good. Myanmar has been quite content with the Thai management of its migrant workers here, both legal and illegal, although displaced people along the border are still problematic. Thailand should use the upcoming visit to set a good framework to negotiate their safe return.

Up to now, Bangkok has not been involved in the ongoing negotiations on a nationwide ceasefire between Nay Pyi Taw and various ethnic groups. Other stakeholders such as China and selective representatives have been engaged for the past three years. Instead, Bangkok has been serving as a low-profile facilitator providing logistics and venues for meetings outside Myanmar. It is an open secret that several ethnic leaders are living in Thailand.

The mammoth Dawei deep-sea port project would also be on the agenda but any substantial progress would rest on the interest of foreign investors and the project's much needed transparency. Myanmar's main focus has always been on the Thilawa Port, which receives Japan's full financial support.

Moving south, the Thai-Malaysia relations are important to the unity of Asean and peace in mainland Southeast Asia. Somehow, these two countries have not fully utilised their mutual potential. More than their leaders would like to admit, they are not in sync with one another although the people-to-people relations are excellent. The leaders have persistently failed to synergise their common national interests and effectively end the longstanding insurgency problems straddling the Thai-Malaysian border once and for all.

Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra.

As the incoming Asean chair, Malaysia will usher the beginning of the Asean Community. Both Thailand and Malaysia can make their common border a model for emulation by the rest of Asean. Kuala Lumpur has advocated a strong people-centred agenda for its Asean chairmanship next year. With full cooperation of military and intelligence leaders from across the border, a peaceful Thai-Malaysian border can be secured.

The new government has sent the right signal for Thailand's role in community-building in Asean. Among the grouping, it has been the most active in campaigning for Asean economic integration as well as the other two pillars on security/political and social/cultural matters.

Immediate action, especially in improving intra-agencies coordination and enabling legislatures, is required to place the country at the forefront of implementing the AC action plans — the current self-assessed scorecard is around 90 per cent.

One caveat is in place. Although the Prayuth government has clear objectives, they are narrow in scope and lack the strategic vision required in the fast changing environment. Thailand's geostrategic location must be featured in to strengthen the country's security capabilities.

In the next 15 months, Thailand will need lots of fresh thought to map out a forward looking blueprint that responds to the Kingdom's strategic needs and its role in the US alliance system and beyond. Thailand must also calibrate its balanced policy with China, Japan, India and Australia. Failure to do so will increase the country's irrelevance in the world today.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/The-Prayuth-governments-strategic-dilemmas-30243270.html


-- The Nation 2014-09-15

[Suriya4]

Thailand is fast to be known as Burma2

[halloween]

Thailand is fast to be known as Burma2

..........down at the Red Shirt Club.

Edited September 15, 2014 by halloween

[chainarong]

The problem grows when Thailand ventures outside of its borders, at the moment Thailand is viewed with disdain from the international community at the overthrow of the ineffectual, incompetent PTP, those who understand the reason for the coup will no doubt think that old habits die hard, Malaysia is not a good neighbour and will sit on it's hands regarding the border problems , unfortunately they take their religion seriously, when placed in a position to take any action , no action but lots of talk would always beat affirmative action, The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism and just because of ASEAN will not alter the climate as it is now, the larger International community is the one that Prayuth needs to fall in love with and that might not be as easy as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

[ikke]

Thailand is fast to be known as Burma2

Not at all, Burma has a fast growing economy, Thailand a fast falling and failing .....

[ikke]

The problem grows when Thailand ventures outside of its borders, at the moment Thailand is viewed with disdain from the international community at the overthrow of the ineffectual, incompetent PTP, those who understand the reason for the coup will no doubt think that old habits die hard, Malaysia is not a good neighbour and will sit on it's hands regarding the border problems , unfortunately they take their religion seriously, when placed in a position to take any action , no action but lots of talk would always beat affirmative action, The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism and just because of ASEAN will not alter the climate as it is now, the larger International community is the one that Prayuth needs to fall in love with and that might not be as easy as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

"The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism"

Not only the other countries surrounding Thailand, but this statement suits Thailand the best also.

[fab4]

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

Edited September 15, 2014 by fab4

[rubl]

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

Good question.

Probably the unfounded believe that Thaksin was involving in the Yingluck Administration and is still manipulating strings behind the scene. I doubt PM Prayuth is referring to Thaksin's 'help' in peace negotiations. Those were long denied, even Thaksin said "who am I to do such?" and ultimately very unsuccessful with parties distancing themselves from the initiative.

BTW did you see the reference to Dawei ?

[billd766]

The problem grows when Thailand ventures outside of its borders, at the moment Thailand is viewed with disdain from the international community at the overthrow of the ineffectual, incompetent PTP, those who understand the reason for the coup will no doubt think that old habits die hard, Malaysia is not a good neighbour and will sit on it's hands regarding the border problems , unfortunately they take their religion seriously, when placed in a position to take any action , no action but lots of talk would always beat affirmative action, The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism and just because of ASEAN will not alter the climate as it is now, the larger International community is the one that Prayuth needs to fall in love with and that might not be as easy as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

"The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism"

Not only the other countries surrounding Thailand, but this statement suits Thailand the best also.

The worst one for many years has just gone, if you had not noticed.

[Sena Dave]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

Good question.

Probably the unfounded believe that Thaksin was involving in the Yingluck Administration and is still manipulating strings behind the scene. I doubt PM Prayuth is referring to Thaksin's 'help' in peace negotiations. Those were long denied, even Thaksin said "who am I to do such?" and ultimately very unsuccessful with parties distancing themselves from the initiative.

BTW did you see the reference to Dawei ?

Najib will not do anything to alienate one Malay Muslim or Bumi Putra(prince of the soil) as they call themselves. They held onto power by the seat of their pants last time, not one Chinese member of MCA is part of the BN coalition, forget them helping out in the south on Thailands agenda

[tonbridgebrit]

How about this, from some of the Thai Visa members ?

Okay, open up talks with Barak Obama, and tell the Americans that the coup back in May was needed. Tell America that there will be elections soon, and once that happens, Thailand and America can be allies again. Tell Barak to have a look at Micheal Yon's facebook page, and how Micheal has got it right.

As for Burma, no need to worry about Burma, they're not going to invade Thailand. And those four million Burmese who are migrant workers in Thailand, well, don't tell the Burmese junta "ha, your country is no good, you've got no human rights, and you're poor, that's why four million of your people work as cheap labour in our country, and our country's rich Chinese company owners benefit from this sweatshop labour of yours, thanks Burma, we want you to carry on doing what you've done for almost three decades". Basically, don't antagonise Burma, and Burma won't antagonise Thailand.

And Malaysia. tell Malaysia "you're a bunch of Muslims, we've got Muslims in our country, we're going to sort out the Muslim problem, don't worry about it". And also "you've got a load of Chinese in your Malaysia, well, we've got a load of Chinese as well, hey, we're actually similar countries, lots of Chinese, let that be a bond and bridge between our two nations".

As for Laos and Cambodia, well, they're little countries, show them some respect, but no need to bow down, Cambodia and Laos need Thailand more than what Thailand needs them.

And tell Singapore "don't you dare laugh at us because we are a junta, you Singapore, you're only a democracy in name only, we know that you're not really a democracy, and we know that you're laughing over the fact that America backs you, even though you're not a democracy".

Anything else ??

[Chris Lawrence]

"Immediate action, especially in improving intra-agencies coordination and enabling legislatures, is required to place the country at the forefront of implementing the AC action plans — the current self-assessed scorecard is around 90 per cent."

I have got this picture of the Generals fridge at home. Every time he thinks he did good he puts a gold star on the magnetic scoreboard stuck to the fridge? 90%?

"Currently, ties between Thai-Myanmar military leaders are very good. Myanmar has been quite content with the Thai management of its migrant workers here, both legal and illegal, although displaced people along the border are still problematic. Thailand should use the upcoming visit to set a good framework to negotiate their safe return."

Two countries without runs on the board for treatment of low income workers? 90%?

Thailand' greatest legacy is the car industry. The need is to encourage more technical investment that should give a spin off to other areas of investment.

[tbthailand]

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

good question, the same jumped out at me.

The army has been in charge of the south for ages. I took it to be a either (1) a Nation-knee-jerk-Thaksin-squirrel comment or (2) some kind of lame attempt to throw the southern problem failures on the shoulders of someone besides the military.

But I have not seen any comments elsewhere that would explain that one.

[h90]

Thailand is fast to be known as Burma2

Myanmar were socialist military against right wing military. The socialists won and the USA were supporting the opposition with weapons and money.

I can't see anything like that in Thailand.

[rubl]

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

good question, the same jumped out at me.

The army has been in charge of the south for ages. I took it to be a either (1) a Nation-knee-jerk-Thaksin-squirrel comment or (2) some kind of lame attempt to throw the southern problem failures on the shoulders of someone besides the military.

But I have not seen any comments elsewhere that would explain that one.

It would seem that at times the army is charged and at times in charge. Things really started to go downhill when in 2004 or so a PM wanted results.

Of course theNation was still very mild in it's kneejerk Thaksin comment. They didn't even mention the 'weak from fasting' remark from our ex-PM.

[h90]

The problem grows when Thailand ventures outside of its borders, at the moment Thailand is viewed with disdain from the international community at the overthrow of the ineffectual, incompetent PTP, those who understand the reason for the coup will no doubt think that old habits die hard, Malaysia is not a good neighbour and will sit on it's hands regarding the border problems , unfortunately they take their religion seriously, when placed in a position to take any action , no action but lots of talk would always beat affirmative action, The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism and just because of ASEAN will not alter the climate as it is now, the larger International community is the one that Prayuth needs to fall in love with and that might not be as easy as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

"The other countries surrounding Thailand are toss pot governments rife with Corruption and nepotism"

Not only the other countries surrounding Thailand, but this statement suits Thailand the best also.

The big question is: Will Prayuth root out corruption without mercy or not....As I see all the Shinawatra family walking around happily I doubt it.

[metisdead]

Some posts of obfuscational nature have been removed.

[northernjohn]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

"Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia's creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib's brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra."

Anybody care to enlighten me as to why Thaksin's name should come up with regard to Najibs decision making? A genuine query. Please do not us this as an excuse for bombarding me with the usual diatribe.

At a guess I would think it was because Thaksin was the one who originated the idea of peace talks in KL with the Malaysian government being the host.

[tonbridgebrit]

Washington, Washington, shut up having a pop at Thailand on the grounds of Thailand having a coup.

Burma has done far worse. It's like you're doing a citizens' arrest on some bloke who threw a coke can on the floor, but you ignore somebody doing a robbery nearby.

Washington, (and Brussels, the same applies to you), tell your American companies to NOT invest a single US dollar into Burma. And whilst you're doing that, notice that Laos and Vietnam don't actually have democratically elected governments. Why don't you go and announce boycotts of THOSE countries ?

Thailand will go back to having elections soon. Washington, you might have egg on your face when it turns out that more people in Thailand support the junta than Thaksin.