Thaksin Not Returning As Pm

[sriracha john]

It has never really been made clear why he wanted this position so badly. The man has no domestic or international achievements that would have placed him in the same league as world-class statesmen to begin with. Is he sticking his neck out just to please his mentor, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, or is he acting out of a personal conviction that he actually has a shot at the position?

Right from the get-go, I've never really understood what qualifications Surakiart has for the UN Secretary-General position apart from him being the current Foreign Minister.

I always thought it was a shame that Thailand make no use of the time that a Thai was the head of the WTO, simply because that person was not a TRT stooge.

A look at where some of the 300 million baht of Thai taxpayer's money went (the website hyping his candidancy is chock-full of why he is sooooo qualified.)

http://www.surakiart.com/

Interestingly, there's this bit there:

The Leaders of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN- comprising Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam) have also endorsed Dr. Surakiart's candidature.

Not sure that really gels with:

Kuala Lumpur - Thailand's candidate for UN top post said on Wednesday he would push for democratic reforms in Burma if elected.

Speaking on the sideline of Asean's foreign minister meeting, Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, said he would also press the junta for the release of Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Nation

Also from his.... oops, I mean the Thai taxpayer's, website:

Dr. Surakiart visits New York 5-12 July

As the ASEAN Candidate and the only candidate to have the endorsement of a regional grouping, Dr. Surakiart met with Permanent Representatives of all regional groups in the UN as well as the 15 members of the Security Council. They exchanged views on some of his key platform issues, including management reform, development, humanitarian assistance/disaster management, and pandemics. He also focused on the issues of concern and priorities of specific regions as well as cross-regional issues such as development.

I guess he was not overly impressive to the 15 members who rated him a distant third of four candidates.

The website is a real hoot... there's a plethora of speeches he's made in the "What He Says" section and in the "What Others Say" section...... nada.... zilch... just a big goofy photo of him.

Oh, and somehow the news of his placing third in the four man race didn't make it into the website.

Edited July 27, 2006 by sriracha john

[John K]

Phrases that belong someplace in the Thaksin threads (But I am not sure exactly where):

“Do as I say and not as I do”

“I’m the man your mom warned you about”

[John K]

Thaksin gave each member Bt200,000 for election-campaign expenses.

OK now I don’t know about you but this is a warning flag to me that he has already fixed the pending events in his favor, dissolving the TRT, and whatever else. 200,000 times how many people? I would never put out that much money unless it was a sure bet. I think it is time to start asking hard questions again.

[sriracha john]

Taking his BS to a whole new level:

He lashed out at the People's Alliance for Democracy saying it was campaigning hard against him and the party.

But, Thai Rak Thai election workers must explain the party's side of events to voters.

"The law of karma is real. Those who do good deeds will receive good deeds in return. Those who do bad deeds will receive bad deeds in return. The PAD is not democratic and always lies," he said.

[John K]

That is a bit of a high form of life for Thaksin to come back as. I was thinking more of a Dung Beatle.

[sriracha john]

Decision time for Thaksin

Thai Rath Editorial _ Will he or won't he?

The question is still the talk of the town, but caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has yet to declare whether he will take a break after the next general election, tentatively set for October 15 this year. Talking to reporters last week, Mr Thaksin said he would make up his mind after the outcome of the October 15 poll is made public. In the meantime, Mr Thaksin says he is willing to reconcile his differences with all parties. However, there has been muted reaction to his offer, partly because everyone sees him as the problem. As long as he stays in power, the country will be divided along political party lines. There are those who love him, and those who hate him.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/03Aug2006_news20.php

[sriracha john]

TRT on edge as they wait for Thaksin

For the Thai Rak Thai Party, the problem is not how to win the October 15 election but rather how to take over the executive branch again.

"We are not concerned at all about winning or losing in the election because we'll definitely win. But the problem is, after winning the election, how can we form the government?" said a Thai Rak Thai member from the Northeast.

In spite of its dwindling popularity, Thai Rak Thai still looks invincible at the polls. One of the party's key members said if the election were held tomorrow, the party would win about 300 out of 500 seats in Parliament.

Before the House dissolution in February, Thai Rak Thai controlled 376 seats, making it practically impossible for the opposition to grill the prime minister.

The only factor deciding the future of Thai Rak Thai lies, of course, in Thaksin Shinawatra, the caretaker prime minister.

Thaksin has not yet made his position clear as to whether he would take a break from the premiership. If he decides to take a break, it would relieve the pressure on Thai Rak Thai and ease the political tension which has been intensifying since his family sold Shin Corp tax-free to Temasek Holdings in January.

The Thai elite, the middle-class and intellectuals have been calling for Thaksin to leave the political scene because they perceive that he lacks the moral authority to continue to lead the country.

There are two camps within the TRT party which view the political situation differently. One camp would like Thaksin to declare outright his decision to take a break from politics. Members in this camp believe if Thaksin were to make his announcement now, it would have positive consequences for the party and improve the political atmosphere as a whole.

Even though the party might face a downsizing as a result of Thaksin taking leave, it can focus on rallying behind a new leadership and build for the future.

There would be no more street demonstrations against Thaksin. After the election, the party would certainly have enough clout to form a new government.

"We believe that if Thaksin were to announce his decision to take a break from politics, some of the no-votes cast against Thai Rak Thai last time would return to support us again," said one party-list member.

The other camp, which consists mostly of non-party list MPs, believes that it is not necessary for Thaksin to prematurely announce his political future.

This camp believes that were Thaksin to make known his position now, the party would fall apart like the proverbial house of cards.

First, factions within the party would vie against each other to promote one of their own people as the new prime minister.

Second, a number of MPs would lose their seats in the election because they would not have Thaksin as a presenter. Thaksin's popularity among the rural voters is still high.

Third, money might not flow into the party like before.

The MPs in this camp hold the belief that Thaksin should continue his political campaign through to the election, after which he can decide his future.

If the party only manages a narrow majority win in the election, which makes it impossible to form a one-party government, Thaksin would be certain to announce his break from politics.

The choice for the party then would be to either come up with a new candidate to take over the premiership by forming a coalition government with another party, most likely the Chat Thai Party of Banharn Silapa-archa. Or the party may invite Banharn to take over the premiership while Thai Rak Thai plays a back-seat role in the next government, which would stay on for about one year to focus most of its energy on national reconciliation and political reform.

But if the party were to win big again in the election, Thaksin would not find it necessary to take a break because he could claim that he has received a mandate from the people again.

Besides, the election would be organised by a new panel of commissioners, who are more acceptable to the public than the previous ones.

However, it is no secret that most Thai Rak Thai members believe that Thaksin will announce his break from politics after the election in order to ease the political pressure.

This would allow him step down more elegantly than making his position known now, which would amount to accepting a defeat.

And accepting defeat is just not Thaksin's style.

The Nation

[steveromagnino]

TRT on edge as they wait for Thaksin

For the Thai Rak Thai Party, the problem is not how to win the October 15 election but rather how to take over the executive branch again.

Great post :-)

Thanks for that.

[Galong]

The Nation incidentally, previously the premier English language paper is now regarded as a disgrace in terms of independent journalism.

Regarded that way by who? Because the paper has editorially been openly anti-Thaksin during this crisis?

Compared to what? The Bangkok Post, that bastion of bland establishment (non) thinking?

I see on the Bangkok Post that there is a new anti-Thaksin website. However, I can't open it... funny that. It's supposed to be at www.stopthaksin.com Anyone had any luck getting in? If so, is it all in Thai? I guess it should be really.

BKK Post article

[sriracha john]

The Nation incidentally, previously the premier English language paper is now regarded as a disgrace in terms of independent journalism.

Regarded that way by who? Because the paper has editorially been openly anti-Thaksin during this crisis?

Compared to what? The Bangkok Post, that bastion of bland establishment (non) thinking?

I see on the Bangkok Post that there is a new anti-Thaksin website. However, I can't open it... funny that. It's supposed to be at www.stopthaksin.com Anyone had any luck getting in? If so, is it all in Thai? I guess it should be really.

BKK Post article

There's a bit of humor involved in all of this. If you like a good laugh, read this and the next several posts after it. I got quite a chuckle out of it :

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...st&p=837901

------------------

To directly answer your question, the website mentioned is not up and running yet.

[sriracha john]

Thaksin hints he may not take break

Roi Et - Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra strongly hinted that he would not take a break after the next election, saying the poor need him to work for them.

Thaskin was speaking to some 3,000 villagers waiting for him at a temple in this northeastern province.

Thaksin told the crowd that the calls by villagers for him to fight on made it hard for him to make decision to retreat.

He said he was pondering whether to leave politics because he had become tired working for the country for six years but was still disliked by the media and a group of people, who lost their vested interest.

"But now I met people who told me to fight on. I met people who gave me moral support and pin their hope on me," Thaksin said.

"I am standing at the crossroads. I would like to devote myself to the country but a group of people may not be happy. They don't want me to become the prime minister because they will lose interest and political recognition."

The Nation

Edited August 9, 2006 by sriracha john

[Siripon]

Thaksin hints he may not take break

Roi Et - Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra strongly hinted that he would not take a break after the next election, saying the poor need him to work for them.

Thaskin was speaking to some 3,000 villagers waiting for him at a temple in this northeastern province.

Thaksin told the crowd that the calls by villagers for him to fight on made it hard for him to make decision to retreat.

He said he was pondering whether to leave politics because he had become tired working for the country for six years but was still disliked by the media and a group of people, who lost their vested interest.

"But now I met people who told me to fight on. I met people who gave me moral support and pin their hope on me," Thaksin said.

"I am standing at the crossroads. I would like to devote myself to the country but a group of people may not be happy. They don't want me to become the prime minister because they will lose interest and political recognition."

The Nation

SJ, don't be one of those people Thaksin warned today, namely educated people, particularly Bangkokians,( though I believe you are residing in Chonburi), who have been DECEIVED!

For all we know Thaksin could have already reached an agreement with his TRT colleagues to retire for one session of Parliament; but there's no way he's going to tell the public that before the election for that means a lot of votes for TRT down the drain and the pack of cards fall.

[sriracha john]

Thaksin hints he may not take break

Roi Et - Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra strongly hinted that he would not take a break after the next election, saying the poor need him to work for them.

SJ, don't be one of those people Thaksin warned today, namely educated people, particularly Bangkokians,( though I believe you are residing in Chonburi), who have been DECEIVED!

For all we know Thaksin could have already reached an agreement with his TRT colleagues to retire for one session of Parliament; but there's no way he's going to tell the public that before the election for that means a lot of votes for TRT down the drain and the pack of cards fall.

On behalf of all Chonburians (to coin Jai Dee's nomenclature), I would say we've all been deceived. We were mistakenly under the impression that when he promised he would not seek the premiership, he was being truthful:

Rejuvenated Thaksin rethinks promise

Arguing that he must fight for His Majesty the King and the country, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday appeared indecisive about honoring his pledge to refuse the premiership in the next government.

Meeting the rural masses yesterday on the last day of his tour of northeastern provinces, Thaksin also continued to hawk populist policies inaugurated by the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) government, despite refuting criticism of political campaigning on an official government trip.

In a speech in Selaphum district of Roi Et province, Thaksin claimed that pressure from the media and his political opponents had made him feel glum, but he felt rejuvenated by the support of the people in Esarn.

“Every time that I visit rural areas and meet the people who peg their hopes on me I feel concerned. The people of Selaphum have expressed the willingness to stand by my side at a time when I am deciding whether to remain prime minister or not.”

After dissolving the House of Representatives in February to extinguish mounting political pressure and street demonstrations, Thaksin announced that he would not accept the premiership in the next government even if TRT wins the most votes.

Thaksin’s three-day tour to Khon Kaen, Maha Sarakham and Roi Et has been criticized by political observers as an attempt to campaign for TRT ahead of the October 15 general election.

Rebutting the criticisms, the caretaker government defended the tour as an official trip for Thaksin to inspect progress on anti-poverty efforts he initiated in a visit to At Samat in Roi Et province last January.

However, Thaksin’s speech yesterday resembled a political campaign address when he said that it would not be difficult for the government to raise funds to alleviate poverty.

“After my visit to At Samat, I calculate that it would take 250 million baht to alleviate poverty in one district,” he said. “It would take 200 billion for 800 villages. The money is something that I can easily find.”

"In fact, just under my mattress alone, I have 200 billion stashed."

Mocking other political parties, Thaksin said that they may make grand claims, but will not fulfill their promises. - - *SEE ABOVE REGARDING PROMISES* - - “The problem is that anyone can boast a policy, but more important is whether they can find the money to fund it.”

ThaiDay

[sriracha john]

UPDATE

tick-tock, tick-tock... the election is coming and STILL no definitive word:

It's not yet time to make a decision: Thaksin

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Wednesday that it was not yet time for him to make a decision whether to take a political break.

"It's not yet time for me to reply. It's not yet time for me to make a decision," Thaksin replied when reporters asked he would remain in politics or take a break.

He said he would have to consider several factors before making a decision.

The Nation

[sriracha john]

and here it is now...AT LAST!... the confirmation that Thaksin's tearful pledge not to accept the premiership was nothing but a phony, staged, bald-face, despicable LIE...

Thaksin will not take break if Thai Rak Thai wins: Veera

Thai Rak Thai Party leader Thaksin Shinawatra will take up the post of prime minister if the party wins the next election, a leading member said Friday.

Veera Musigapong, a TRT Party executive, said all Thai Rak Thai members still agreed among themselves that Thaksin was still the selling point of the party and he would not take a political break if the party won the next election.

"No more questions as to whether Thaksin would take a political break or not," Veera said.

"We hereby affirm that the Thai Rak Thai will contest the election with Thaksin as leader and if the party wins, Thaksin will become the prime minister.

"All in the party still see that Thaksin must remain the leader of the party and no one thinks otherwise," Veera said.

The Nation

-----------------------------

bring on the PAD rallies.... bring on more division... bring on more of everything........

Edited August 18, 2006 by sriracha john

[Plus]

Who's Veera, again? Let's see if the big man goes on radio tomorrow.

If Dr. T confirms that he intends to take PMship, that will surely lead to escalation of hostilities. Perhaps that's why they waited till Friday night to make an announcement - people will have two days to mull things over and so won't react irrationally. PAD rally is supposed to be over by now, too. Our Khum Siriporn logged off, too.Great timing.

Or perhaps they sense that people won't go into long demonstrations again - then it's his last chance. HOwever, if PAD manages to bring huge crowds and blocade the government house again, it will be over for him - he will have to leave in disgrace, or order a huge crackdown that would lead to violence.

[sriracha john]

Who's Veera, again? Let's see if the big man goes on radio tomorrow.

If Dr. T confirms that he intends to take PMship, that will surely lead to escalation of hostilities. Perhaps that's why they waited till Friday night to make an announcement - people will have two days to mull things over and so won't react irrationally. PAD rally is supposed to be over by now, too. Our Khum Siriporn logged off, too.Great timing.

Or perhaps they sense that people won't go into long demonstrations again - then it's his last chance. HOwever, if PAD manages to bring huge crowds and blocade the government house again, it will be over for him - he will have to leave in disgrace, or order a huge crackdown that would lead to violence.

I had to look him up, myself. Not exactly a household name. Seems he's a power-broker within the party that prefers the dark shadows and stays out of the limelight for the most part.

A former chairman of the board at the State Railways of Thailand, former New Aspiration Party deputy leader, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture, former Deputy Minister of Interior ...

even a movie producer for, "A film called I Sah Jom Nerakhun was advertised as the very first Thai political movie."

The potential for violence with this announcement by him, particularly if it's confirmed by Thaksin himself, is definitely increasing as the demonstrations seem likely to reoccur. Perhaps he will continue to sidestep the issue and tap dance around it. This past week there's seems to be a tremendous amount of contradictions within the TRT Party. One person saying this, the next person saying that.... even more so than what they normally do. It certainly seems to be a party in disarray.

Edited August 19, 2006 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

Geez.... case in point for the above noted disarray...

Now, we have Banharn making deals with Thaksin for Banharn to become PM... with Bank of Thailand's Pridiyathorn as his Deputy PM...

Gosh, never a dull moment in Thai politics...

'PACT' WITH THAKSIN

Banharn 'to return as premier'

TRT, Chat Thai sources say secret deal reached; Pridiyathorn may be deputy

Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra has struck a secret deal with Banharn Silapa-archa to take over as prime minister after the October 15 election, and the Chat Thai leader has already approached Bank of Thailand Governor MR Pridiyathorn Devakula to become his deputy and finance minister if his dream of making a comeback as premier comes true, according to highly placed sources in both parties.

A key member of the Thai Rak Thai Party said Thaksin might try to reduce the political pressure on him by forming a coalition government with Banharn's Chat Thai Party. He would then offer Banharn the post of prime minister during the period of political reform expected after the election.

Pridiyathorn, who will retire from the central bank in October next year, is believed to be seriously considering Banharn's offer, although he has not yet made his position clear. His five-year governorship at the central bank has earned him respect both at home and abroad as an independent policy-maker.

"The new government will be focusing largely on political reform and constitutional amendments. The government will stay for only one year to finish the job as part of the social contract. Then the economic situation might worsen from both the domestic and external factors. In particular, the war in the Middle East could push oil prices up further. If the prime minister fails to tackle the economic problems, the society will call on Thaksin to serve as prime minister again," the Thai Rak Thai source said.

This strategy is one of the three options drawn up by the Thaksin camp. Another is for Thaksin to ignore public protests against him and stay on as prime minister following a Thai Rak Thai victory at the polls.

too dangerous for PM and too damaging to the country

The last option is for Thaksin to step aside and hand over the premiership to Chidchai Vanasatidya, Bhokin Bhalakula or Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, the source said.

more likely scenario if things start looking violent or pressure is put on for him to step aside

Other key members of the Thai Rak Thai, including Somsak Thepsuthin and Pinij Charusombat, have been pushing for Dr Somkid Jatusripitak to succeed Thaksin as prime minister. But Thaksin is against this proposal.

...and Somkid has accepted a professorship at Thammasat already... it seems he's had enough of politics

The Thai Rak Thai member said Thaksin would also like to park Thai Rak Thai MPs at Chat Thai in the event the Constitution Court dissolves the party for alleged violation of the election laws.

The Constitution allows 30 days for MPs whose party has been dissolved by the Constitution Court to become members of a new party.

With the highly volatile political situation, Thaksin is keeping his options open and watching developments on a daily basis. He is likely to make a decision on whether to step aside as prime minister or resume the premiership either one week before or after the general election, the source said.

A key member of the Chat Thai Party said that in one possible scenario, Thaksin would agree to form a coalition government with Banharn after the election and offer him the post of deputy prime minister in charge of political reform. Banharn earlier played a role in the political reforms leading to the 1997 Constitution during his premiership in 1995-1996.

The source said Banharn had asked Pridiyathorn to join Chat Thai and serve as deputy prime minister and finance minister. "But we have not yet got an answer from him," the source said.

Banharn first approached Pridiyathorn to take the number one spot in the Chat Thai's party list, but he declined saying he was still needed at the central bank. But the prospect of Pridiyathorn joining the Chat Thai became brighter after Banharn approached him a second time following a dinner meeting with Thaksin late last month.

The Nation

--------------------------------------

stay tuned.... changes and developments every day now...

Edited August 19, 2006 by sriracha john

[John K]

Who’s choice is it anyway to elect a PM Thaksin or parliament? Thaksin must have all the puppet right arm and hand strings in a bundle already.

Let me see how the deal may have gone down, do the names Ford and Nixon ring a bell.

[sriracha john]

bring on the PAD rallies.... bring on more division... bring on more of everything........

This strategy is one of the three options drawn up by the Thaksin camp. Another is for Thaksin to ignore public protests against him and stay on as prime minister following a Thai Rak Thai victory at the polls.

too dangerous for PM and too damaging to the country

As if on cue, both are beginning to occur:

Thaksin ambushed with protest in Siam Paragon

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ambushed verbal attacks in Siam Paragon by a group of protesters Saturday afternoon, leading a clash between the protesters and his supporters.

The angry prime minister cut short his visit of an exhibition to honour His Majesty the King after some 20 to 30 protesters kept on shouting abuses against him.

Before leaving in his car, Thaksin strongly criticized the protesters as "lacking developed mind" and asked officials to take legal action against them.

The clash and exchange of verbal attacks between the groups of supporters and protesters happened at about 2 pm and last about 20 minutes.

The fight came after Thaksin chaired a ceremony to launch books and CDs in memory of the celebration of the 60th anniversary of His Majesty the King's Accession to the Throne in the shopping mall.

While Thaksin was visiting the exhibition, a woman stepped on his foot twice and he asked his bodyguard to watch out against the woman.

"Please check if she is insane or not. She stepped on my foot twice already," Thaksin told his bodyguards.

While Thaksin was continuing seeing the exhibition, some 20 to 30 people, shouted "Thaksin is bad, Thaksin cheats, Thaksin get out."

The prime minister was seen apparently startled and turned to look at the protesters.

His bodyguards then tried to lead Thaksin to leave the shopping mall, but a group of his supporters charged toward the protesters.

The supporters and Thaksin's bodyguards tried to ask the protesters to stop shouting but they kept on shouting criticism against Thaksin.

At the moment, a university student shouted "You cheat the country" and some three to four supporters charged toward him and hit and kicked him until he fell down.

The protesters then helped pulled the student away.

Another woman, who carried her young daughter, also shouted "Thaksin cheats" and she was pushed backed by Thaksin's bodyguard, causing her to nearly fall down.

Some observers also shouted "We are Thais. Why did you do this in exhibition to honour His Majesty?"

The protesters then started retreating and walked away and shouted abuses against from afar.

They later walked down the escalator and kept on shouting criticism against Thaksin from a lower floor.

At the same time, Thaksin's supporters shouted back at them and asked the protesters to go home.

The protesters later left the shopping mall and the confusion ended.

While Thaksin was leaving, a group of supporters surrounded him and kept on shouting "Thaksin Figt On" until he reached his car.

The supporters waited there and kept on cheering Thaksin while he was giving interview to reporters.

Before leaving in his car, Thaksin told reporters that the tussle should not have happened during the important exhibition.

"These people do not have developed mind. They showed what was undemocratic behaviour," Thaksin said.

He said the protesters should have waited until October 15 to express their dislike against him by not voting for him.

- The Nation

============================================================

SCUFFLE IN BANGKOK

Anti-PM protester gets fat lip

Shouting match develops into fight as Thaksin opens royal exhibition

A man sustained a swollen mouth yesterday when a shouting match between government supporters and opponents turned into a fist fight while caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was opening an exhibition in Bangkok in honour of His Majesty the King.

"The incident should not have happened in Thailand and shows certain individuals are acting irresponsibly under democratic rule," Thaksin said before his security detail whisked him away.

After arriving at the Siam Paragon shopping centre, Thaksin proceeded to the Lifestyle Hall to inspect the picture books and CDs on royal projects displayed as part of the 60th anniversary celebrations for His Majesty's accession to the throne.

Government supporters and anti-Thaksin protesters started to push and shove and exchange insults as Thaksin walked through the crowd.

A group of about 30 started cursing and chanting for Thaksin's ouster.

"National plunderer, out!" one man shouted, prompting four of Thaksin's supporters in black jackets to start pounding him with their fists.

A melee ensued and the large crowd of onlookers booed both sides for disturbing the peace without any respect for the King.

After Thaksin left, police moved in to persuade the protesters to leave and dispersed the crowd.

Metropolitan Police chief Lt-Colonel Wiroj Chantharangsi said security would be beefed up for Thaksin from now on.

Wiroj presented himself as the top security guard when Thaksin and his wife attended a performance of Khon masked dance at Sala Chalermkrung in the evening.

In Phitsanulok, the People's Alliance for Democracy met with an opposing rally while it organised an anti-Thaksin protest. The PAD chose to rally in the northern province as a countermove after Thaksin completed his inspection tour there.

Pro-government activists led by Boonlert Ruangtim staged a demonstration nearby aimed at disrupting the PAD's activities.

About 1,000 police were deployed to keep peace between the two sides.

- The Nation

Edited August 19, 2006 by sriracha john

[jdinasia]

yeppers ... it i about to REALLY start heating up!

Not a good thing ... but life will be interesting for sure!

[John K]

Well it is very clear now Thaksin has adopted a new tactic, the use of thugs to deny people their rights. I wonder if there is a way the PAD can file a law suit that either (a) Thaksin is failing to protect the rights of people by failing to instruct his security not to assault or ( Thaksin is violation the rights of people by allowing his security to assault people.

You know I spotted something on Sukhumvit last week that made me think. I actually never noticed it before but high powered rifle scopes for sale on the street.

Well lets see here are my headline predictions from back in May, looks like my score so far is right up there.

“Anti government rallies start again”

“PM moving his fortune out of reach of asset freezing”

“Government sanctioned police action escalates”

“Court rules against TRT”

“PM Thaksin indited”

“Democratic party HQ bombed again”

“Military intervenes”

“Political chaos hurts Thailand’s tourism”

“New EC seated”

“Election date set for late July”

[sriracha john]

Thaksin's guards, protesters clash

Opponents spoiled caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's day at a downtown shopping centre yesterday by shouting at him, leading to a clash with his security guards. Mr Thaksin was stunned by an unexpected protest as he went to Siam Paragon shopping centre to kick off the launch of a commemorative book and film about the exhibition held to commemorate His Majesty the King's 60 years on the throne. His opponents, including students, held a protest during the event, leading to a clash with his supporters and security guards. The incident led to stricter security for the premier last night as a swarm of uniformed and plainclothes police tightly guarded Sala Chalermkrung Royal Theatre where he, his wife Khunying Potjaman and cabinet members went to see a khon, or Thai masked dance based on the performance of ''Hanuman the Mighty''. Those gathering in front of the theatre, if found without a ticket, were asked to leave the premises.

Yurachat Chatsuthichai, 19, one of the protesters at Siam Paragon, said he was punched in the head and face and later dragged out of the shopping mall's compound by three men who acted and dressed like security guards accompanying Mr Thaksin and some cabinet members.

Meanwhile, 500 Km away in Phitsanulok, nearly 10,000 northerners joined yesterday's anti-Thaksin rally organised by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in Muang district.

Over 200 uniformed and plainclothes police and soldiers were employed to maintain order as PAD supporters from five provinces in the lower north gathered at a defunct rice mill, which was the rally venue.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/20Aug2006_news01.php

Edited August 20, 2006 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

Here's another threat to not having Thaksin not return as PM. It's quite appropriate that Thaksin's potential downfall is centered on his penchant for lying:

Taking on Thaksin

Former business partner hopes to make perjury charges stick on caretaker premier

"I'll do the right thing for Thailand," said William L Monson, the American businessman who is taking Thaksin Shinawatra to court on two perjury charges.

The Criminal Court has already scheduled five hearings for the first perjury charge and one hearing for a second similar charge, with the first session due on September 11.

Monson, 63, who was in Thailand last week to finalise his cases against the caretaker prime minister, told The Nation that he still regarded Thaksin as a friend, but he wanted to ensure that the Thai justice system worked and truth prevailed. With friends like Thaksin, who needs enemies?

Thaksin, a former business partner of Monson, was accused of using false evidence in court when the premier tried to charge Monson, a cable TV company owner, of embezzlement back in 1989.

Monson, now president of US-based Clearview Wireless, said Thaksin had already lost the embezzlement case in two Thai courts.

As a result, he decided to file perjury charges against him. By October 16, the court will rule whether it will accept one of the cases for a full-scale trial.

"My legal position remains unchanged. He's still a friend. I do not hate him," said Monson, adding that he was still upset that Thaksin had taken harsh legal and other actions against him and his Thai company staff.

The US businessman recalled that his Thai manager was thrown into jail for four days in 1989 after Thaksin had asked police to seize broadcasting equipment from his Bangkok-based firm.

Monson said the equipment belonged to his firm, which was originally a 50-50 joint venture between him and Thaksin. However, Thaksin later pulled out and sold his stake to Monson. Thaksin was understood to have been hired by Monson to lobby for the operation to get a nation-wide licensed cable-TV service.

After the operation was later seized by Thaksin, it eventually became IBC, the country's first major cable-TV operator.

Monson tried to recover his investment and get his fair share of the multi-billion-baht business, but his offer was turned down by Thaksin several years ago.

"I've been fighting for justice and the truth for more than 17 years. I want to do the right thing for Thailand. I love the country and have two children who are half-Thai," said Monson, who was married to a Thai woman.

"I think I also want to do the right thing for Thaksin and to recover the millions of dollars I had invested and lost in this business. Thaksin has created his monsters. I'll eat them."

The American said the timing of criminal cases against the embattled Thai leader was "providential" in his opinion, since he had been fighting the cases for a long time.

Monson said he had been following Thai politics via the Internet and was aware of Thaksin's political difficulties.

"I think a leader has to be honest," he added.

Monson also dismissed as groundless Thaksin's bid for an out-of-court settlement.

The businessman said he made a settlement offer many years ago for a 40-per-cent share of the former IBC business, which is now part of UBC, the country's only major cable-TV operator.

"That was in the early 1990s. The amount was US$160 million or 40 per cent of the estimated worth of IBC back then. Today, it should be more, plus 7-per-cent interest. That offer was ignored by Thaksin," Monson recalled.

For now, Thaksin's bid for a settlement can be ruled out. The premier's lawyers are expected to wait for the court's October 16 ruling to see if there will be a full-scale trial.

- The Nation

[sriracha john]

Business deal gone bad comes back to haunt Thaksin

Thaksin Shinawatra, the caretaker premier, seems to have been running into one stumbling block after another since his political stars started to line up against him some time early this year.

Last week it was disclosed that the Criminal Court had scheduled a total of six hearings in September and October on two perjury charges against our dear leader. The lawsuits were filed by an American businessman who alleges that he was taken advantage of by the caretaker premier in a cable-TV joint business venture dating back to the late 1980s.

The plaintiff, William L Monson, president of US-based Clearview Wireless, appears determined to see that the Thai justice system takes its course and that the truth prevails, even though the wrongs he is seeking to right occurred more than 17 years ago.

According to Monson, the story has been quite unpleasant ever since Thaksin, then simply a businessman, took him and company staff to court back in 1989 - a few years after the joint venture was set up here.

The background is something like this: Monson, then a pioneer in the cable-TV business in Hawaii, was first invited to invest in the Thai cable-TV industry in the early 1980s.

He came here and set up the first operation around 1982. Shortly afterwards, Pramut Sutabutr, then director of the Mass Communication Authority of Thailand, now MCOT Plc, introduced him to Thaksin.

At the time Thaksin was completely new to the cable-TV business, but he was keen to pioneer it in Thailand. Initially, he set up a 50:50 joint venture with Monson for a limited service, with each man investing US$250,000 (Bt9.4 million at today's exchange rate) in the business. Later, Thaksin wanted to pull out and sold his stake to the American, who understood that he had hired Thaksin to lobby for the grant of a proper licence to run the business nationwide in Thailand.

However, it later turned out that Thaksin had taken over the business entirely.

That business later became IBC, the country's first major cable-TV operator. When it listed on the stock market in the early 1990s, IBC was worth several billion baht. At that time, Monson claimed that he deserved a 40-per-cent share of IBC, amounting to an estimated $160 million.

IBC, now part of UBC, is currently the country's only major cable-TV operator. It is said to be Thaksin's first major source of wealth prior to his expansion into satellite, mobile-phone and other businesses and, subsequently, the political arena.

For Monson, the bitterness started in 1989 when Thaksin and company accused him and his staff of embezzling broadcasting and related equipment originally belonging to Monson's first joint venture with Thaksin.

According to Monson, who was here last week to prepare for the court hearings, this was untrue, as shown by a court verdict acquitting him and his staff of the charges. The Court of Appeals also upheld the acquittal when Thaksin's lawyers took the case to the higher court.

In return, Monson decided to fight back by filing two perjury charges against Thaksin just before one of them reached the statute of limitations. Hence the court now has both cases on its hands.

Monson said he was aware of the political difficulties being faced by Thaksin, whom he still considers a friend, but the timing of court hearings wasn't in his control.

The American businessman insisted that he had been fighting for justice and honesty for a very long time - long before Thaksin's political troubles began and well before he became prime minister. In Monson's opinion, the timing is just providential.

- The Nation

[sriracha john]

Karma gradually catching up with Thaksin

Ambiguity over his political future is the latest ploy of Thaksin Shinawatra to create confusion among friends and foes alike, prompting Thai Rak Thai Party members to reaffirm that their boss is definitely in the running for the premiership.

Was the ambiguity intended, or actually a reflection of Thaksin's uncertainty about his own future amid mounting pressure and adversity threatening his political survival and family business?

His eroding popularity among rural grass-roots villagers was evident from the much smaller gatherings at his pep talk rallies under the guise of routine inspection trips. It would have been tens of thousands of people giving rousing welcome to the man who excels in pork-barrel politics and populist policies.

Thaksin's incoherence is a mixture of bravado and daunting signs. Such mood swings have become more frequent with the growing pressure from all sides. The more notable of his setbacks was the declarations of several Cabinet members that they would opt out of government after the general election.

Such desertion has long been expected among Thaksin's cronies, who seek self-preservation rather than sharing a ruinous end to the Thaksin regime, now threatened by a series of legal charges against the man as prime minister and in his personal capacity. The prospects of survival are not rosy at all if the wheel of justice turns the way the law dictates.

The Thaksin regime is falling apart. It's just a matter of time. The only consolation for Thaksin could be the soothsaying of fortune-tellers, who want thick wads of banknotes in return for pleasing the ears of the beleaguered politicians. Apart from that his big money, billions of baht, is not of much help these days.

Blow after blow forcing him to retreat and accept the fact of a corroding power base is having a strong effect on Thaksin's nerves. He has to stay on simply because he has no other choice. Not even a graceful exit.

Quitting would certainly lead to a breakup of the Thai Rak Thai Party. Loss of power would surely invite reprisal and vengeance from those who have suffered from abuse of power and the exercise of dark influence. The souls of thousands and thousands of the victims of extrajudicial killings are crying for justice.

Thaksin is becoming more vulnerable as the days pass. Talk about desertion by his cronies and the strong likelihood of the party getting the axe for misdeeds in the previous poll are the main causes for extreme anxiety. If the October 15 general election is eventually postponed by several weeks, the fate of Thai Rak Thai and of the party's leader will be really critical.

Thaksin does not want any further delay. Time is crucial. He wants the remaining grass-roots support to carry him again to Government House with a mandate and legitimacy. This will enable him to deal with critics and those against his regime, not to mention providing more opportunities for wealth creation and other self-serving interests.

Remaining in power will also enable him to explore ways to survive criminal charges and civil cases, using unlimited resources to the optimum. If adversity disappears together with the pipsqueaks of protestors, Thaksin can rule with an iron fist, especially if he has no care about the international community.

Such a possibility during his peak period has now become merely wishful thinking. Despite his insistence on holding the general election so that the people can decide the future of the country, the signs are becoming clearer that October 15 will not be the day.

Karma is catching up with him, some people say. That's why things are not going the way he wants. The sale of Shin Corp stocks to Temasek Holdings of Singapore now stinks with evidence of serious lawbreaking, which could result in all concessions for TV, cell-phone and satellite business operations reverting to the state.

If that happens, the great fortune of the Shinawatra family will be reduced to nothing, except for the massive assets already stashed in safe places abroad to ensure a luxurious lifestyle if the clan has to leave the country in a hurry.

What's more, the Bt73-billion deal not been consummated, pending the second payment from Temasek. Top revenue officials are being hounded by the Auditor General to provide a credible explanation as to why no income tax was levied on the transaction.

Thaksin is in hot water himself as he faces a criminal case filed by an American businessman whom he wrongly accused. The man is back with a vengeance and wants Thaksin to lose his freedom of movement.

When all these things are added up, they are weighty enough to account for Thaksin's erratic and incoherent behaviour, plus the occasional mood swings with displays of increasing vulnerability. But don't count him out yet. He will be around for some more weeks, or months, though he faces a grave situation with waning credibility.

He might have lost some power, but surely not yet the flair for creating enemies, many of them converted from being friends and supporters. If his rogue cronies cannot stand him, who can?

The Nation

Opinion Page

[John K]

I think the dates are key, October 16 the day after the elections. So does perjury disqualify him from being PM?

the fact that he has turned to violence to silence his critics is a bad sign. It means he has reached his level of tolerance. I am sure there is a huge battle going on in his head and he is not sleeping very well.

Stepping down mean loss of power and wealth and exposure to very possible jail time. I am sure there are plenty of law suits in Que that he is the defendant that will come flooding out when he steps down.

Acknowledging he was wrong is too bitter a pill for him because of his ego, plus it will cost him a lot of votes in the north particularly after his “educated people” comment.

Wanting to stay on and what must be done to stay in power will now call for bully mentality and the elimination of all free speech and assembly. In short he must fully end democracy and install a dictatorial form of rule. This is the only out he can see because it will effectively end the courts.

I think any form of graceful exit is out of the question at this point.

[sriracha john]

There's a good chance his exit will be even less graceful than these people, who oppose this despot, were given:

Security officers try to force protesters out of the area at Siam Paragon after they jeered caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

[John K]

It may more resemble the opening scene from the movie “Jaws.”

[sriracha john]

looks like things will get worse before better if Thaksin fails to keep his promise not to return as PM:

ANTI-THAKSIN PROTESTS

More violence predicted

Opponents vow to keep on hounding PM; suporters warn of 'terrible' happenings

The national rift over Thaksin Shinawatra deepened yesterday following Saturday's Siam Paragon scuffle, with his supporters and opponents accusing each other of instigating the incident and planning to provoke further violence.

The caretaker prime minister's Thai Rak Thai Party claimed opponents had developed a "guerrilla strategy" that involved sending a few "hooligans" to hound Thaksin at every public function.

"They will employ a suicide-bomber strategy, one which requires just a few hooligans who will boo and jeer at him wherever he goes," said Thai Rak Thai executive Pairote Suwanchawee.

Hmmm.... extremely distasteful phrasing with the use of "trigger" words there, Khun Parrot

"This is meant to dispirit him and lure the broadcast and print media into highlighting such incidents and invariably create an impression [of a divisive phenomenon]."

The other side insisted at a press conference yesterday that the Siam Paragon fist-fight erupted because men who looked like Thaksin's bodyguards zoomed in on protesters after a five-year-old boy shouted "plunderer get out!"

The anti-Thaksin camp said they would keep protesting at public places where Thaksin appears until "he has no place to be".

In Saturday's incident, a man was left with a swollen mouth when a shouting match between government supporters and opponents turned into a scuffle while Thaksin was opening an exhibition in honour of His Majesty the King. "We have heard that Thaksin will not set foot in Silom any more and it will also be the case with Siam Paragon," said Sangsit Piriyarang-san, leader of a group seeking social sanctions against the prime minister.

The so-called Civil Society Network to Stop the Thaksin System organised the press conference at Rajabhat University's Chankasem campus to decry what it claimed to be "uncivilised" ways of handling peaceful expression of political discontent.

"We will keep eliminating the space where Thaksin can be in Thai society," caretaker Buri Ram Senator Karun Sai-ngarm told the press conference to a big applause.

"Witnesses" appeared at the press conference to claim that Saturday's incident started with "men in black jackets" assaulting those shouting anti-Thaksin slogans. The network's leaders insisted if the incident did not involve Thaksin's bodyguards, it was an alarming sign of things to come if Thaksin, the "root cause" of the present national divide, refused to leave politics quietly.

Former veteran envoy Asda Jayanama said he had never seen anything like the Siam Paragon incident in his life.

"I have been a diplomat for 35 years and been in seven countries," he told the press conference. "I have never seen bodyguards of any prime minister attack peaceful anti-government protesters before."

The network claimed the incident took place because more and more pro-Thaksin demonstrations were being stage-managed to create the false impression that the premier remained hugely popular.

"How can Thaksin continue to preside over a nation as divided as this?" said Prasarn Maruekkapitak, leader of an anti-Thaksin businessmen's group.

"The incident was not the first and surely it won't be the last," said Suriyasai Katasila, a leader of the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

"We are not sure how much more violent things can get. Our objective remains ousting the prime minister through peaceful means, but his people are trying to inflame the situation by calling us names like suicide bombers."

According to Pairote, the "hooligans" or "suicide bombers" strategy is not aimed only at ousting Thaksin, but also at neutralising Thai Rak Thai as a whole.

"The undemocratic measures coincide with attempts to delay the October 15 election. Those people believe the longer the election is delayed, the more our party will be weakened or be even more likely to break up," he said.

That's a pretty fair and accurate assessment, Khun Parrot... your first... :party:

Thai Rak Thai deputy spokesman Jatuporn Prompan accused the anti-Thaksin movement of instigating the Siam Paragon incident and strongly criticised its "lack of respect" for an event meant to honour His Majesty.

"What if we send Thai Rak Thai followers to disrupt every gathering of the PAD? This kind of confrontation could lead to something terrible. The other side should think about this with a really open mind," Jatuporn said.

"Their admission that they sent people to create a nuisance is no different from terrorists claiming responsibility for bomb explosions."

But caretaker Bangkok Senator Wallop Tangkananurak insisted that all the scary scenarios would disappear if the man at the centre of the confrontation would step down.

"I just want to ask him if he's happy to see Thailand go on like this. Our country has never been so divided. Every good leader has to think real hard if things like this happen in his country," said Wallop.

The Nation