TCT: Another tough year ahead for Thai tourism if martial law stays

[brucec64]

The blame game for the protests has been covered in numerous threads over the last 10 months and this thread concerns the future of tourism in this country. I agree that scams are a cause for lost tourism, but the tourism crash now is not a result of scams.

These tourist numbers in the attached file are from the Bank of Thiland website and clearly show a reverse from an upward trend to a downward trend in Jan/Feb 2014.

Jan/Feb 2014 was when the world was being treated to these wonderful photos of elections being forcefully blocked:

Martial law still being in effect will cause tourists, especially first time tourists, because if the problems were over, why would we still need martial law? Martial law suggests a situation that could blow up at any time, only held down through suppression.

Election elections elections, These pictures put off tourists. nice try. Elections were a no go and well you know it. They were for the benefit of PTP to get back in before all the corruption came to the surface.

Why were they prevented----for this reason.... All travel agents abroad are telling customers --" do not go to Thailand as Martial Law exists" Of course not, holiday makers do not give a fig and again who is advising them not to travel.

Holiday destinations almost everywhere are being hit.

A photo showing Yingluck opening an OTOP shop would have brought the tourists back

You are welcome to your opinion but numbers do not lie. I will attach these numbers again so you can clearly see a strong correlation between events in Jan/Feb and a drastic reduction in tourism numbers from last year. Please show me tourist numbers for other destinations that have seen 15-20% year to year reduction this year that have not experienced political upheaval or natural disasters.

Also, the OP that is being discussed is "TCT: Another tough year ahead for Thai tourism if martial law stays", not just my opinion.

There were figures as you posted. BUT who said the downward trend HAD to do with your interpretation ?? did it state the reason was as you said ??

Look up your own stats---or check other countries before blasting the PM. It will be a tough year if Martial Law is lifted---get real.

Do you not think the polices that led to the protests had anything to do with the figures ??? you people make me sick with your wild accusations/comments without putting a balanced view forward.

The OP stated that my interpretation was correct. It is my opinion - very difficult to prove what is the actual reason because that would mean polling all the tourists who cancelled their trip. However, Occam's Razor would suggest that the political events in Thailand, that were publicized worldwide, followed by an immediate downward trend in tourism, is a major contributing reason. Notice that the single largest loss of tourists was in June, when tourism was down 25%. There could be a myriad of reasons, but I would postulate that at least some of that had to do with the coup.

This is a rational discussion - no need to share your personal health issues. If you are sick, you should seek immediate medical care.

[Thaddeus]

Two words for you.

Straw, camel.

Two more.

End, of.

One word:

Illiterate

Ahhhh insults, the last resort, so comforting.

And usually end of discussion, it is for me.

[brucec64]

Two words for you.

Straw, camel.

Two more.

End, of.

One word:

Illiterate

Ahhhh insults, the last resort, so comforting.

And usually end of discussion, it is for me.

I was merely pointing out that your post was cryptic and unintelligible. No insult was meant.

[ginjag]

Election elections elections, These pictures put off tourists. nice try. Elections were a no go and well you know it. They were for the benefit of PTP to get back in before all the corruption came to the surface.

Why were they prevented----for this reason.... All travel agents abroad are telling customers --" do not go to Thailand as Martial Law exists" Of course not, holiday makers do not give a fig and again who is advising them not to travel.

Holiday destinations almost everywhere are being hit.

A photo showing Yingluck opening an OTOP shop would have brought the tourists back

You are welcome to your opinion but numbers do not lie. I will attach these numbers again so you can clearly see a strong correlation between events in Jan/Feb and a drastic reduction in tourism numbers from last year. Please show me tourist numbers for other destinations that have seen 15-20% year to year reduction this year that have not experienced political upheaval or natural disasters.

Also, the OP that is being discussed is "TCT: Another tough year ahead for Thai tourism if martial law stays", not just my opinion.

There were figures as you posted. BUT who said the downward trend HAD to do with your interpretation ?? did it state the reason was as you said ??

Look up your own stats---or check other countries before blasting the PM. It will be a tough year if Martial Law is lifted---get real.

Do you not think the polices that led to the protests had anything to do with the figures ??? you people make me sick with your wild accusations/comments without putting a balanced view forward.

The OP stated that my interpretation was correct. It is my opinion - very difficult to prove what is the actual reason because that would mean polling all the tourists who cancelled their trip. However, Occam's Razor would suggest that the political events in Thailand, that were publicized worldwide, followed by an immediate downward trend in tourism, is a major contributing reason. Notice that the single largest loss of tourists was in June, when tourism was down 25%. There could be a myriad of reasons, but I would postulate that at least some of that had to do with the coup.

This is a rational discussion - no need to share your personal health issues. If you are sick, you should seek immediate medical care.

So many things to consider----you failed to state outright that PTP polices were a factor---also April is the start of the RAIN season.

If it is rational balance your rhetoric-clan view. be fair.. coup coup coup army army. How can YOUR version be correct if you stated it is difficult to prove ??? Scams rain-- schools not out in June, events here that no PM could control. World money problems---Chinese tourists drop 25% see the picture.

[ginjag]

Two words for you.

Straw, camel.

Two more.

End, of.

One word:

Illiterate

Ahhhh insults, the last resort, so comforting.

And usually end of discussion, it is for me.

I was merely pointing out that your post was cryptic and unintelligible. No insult was meant.

Did you read your reply ?? no insult was meant 555555555555555

[brucec64]

The OP stated that my interpretation was correct. It is my opinion - very difficult to prove what is the actual reason because that would mean polling all the tourists who cancelled their trip. However, Occam's Razor would suggest that the political events in Thailand, that were publicized worldwide, followed by an immediate downward trend in tourism, is a major contributing reason. Notice that the single largest loss of tourists was in June, when tourism was down 25%. There could be a myriad of reasons, but I would postulate that at least some of that had to do with the coup.

This is a rational discussion - no need to share your personal health issues. If you are sick, you should seek immediate medical care.

So many things to consider----you failed to state outright that PTP polices were a factor---also April is the start of the RAIN season.

If it is rational balance your rhetoric-clan view. be fair.. coup coup coup army army. How can YOUR version be correct if you stated it is difficult to prove ??? Scams rain-- schools not out in June, events here that no PM could control. World money problems---Chinese tourists drop 25% see the picture.

I didn't know rainy season started in April, but even if it does, it does every year and would not be a reason for a year to year downward trend.

Like I said - cause and effect. Occam's Razor (http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html) says that ""when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better." I stated in the last post that polictical events, including election blocking, protests, and violent acts from both sides contributed to the initial downward trend. This was further exacerbated by the imposition of martial law and the coup in May, leading to a 25% reduction in June. The continuance of the downward trend is primarely attributed to the continuance of martial law, and also magnified by world events such as the drop in the ruble.

Scams, schools not out in June, rainy season - happen every year, and previous years saw growth in tourism, so I discount those reasons.

[jpeg]

Martial Law or political chaos.........take your pick.

Your thinking is very short term, perhaps you've gone native. What do you think the end game to all this will be? It must be that martial law stays in place, forever, orrrr, the push back against such a dictatorial regime will be so great that 'political chaos' will be like nothing you've seen yet

All that will have happened is that a bad situation has been made potentially much worse.

I think the end game to all this will be a free and fair election. It may be a little later than originally planned, but it will happen.

Sorry WB, I usually agree with the majority of your posts, but how an earth can a 'free and fair' election take place when people are forbidden from even talking about politics?

Edited October 23, 2014 by jpeg

[Arkady]

The best way to rehabilitate Koh Tao would be to restore its proper status as national forest reserve and revoke all building permits and rights to live there. None of the land is privately owned as the whole island was originally declared as crown land to create a penal colony. As an uninhabited national heritage site like Ang Thong it would make a fantastic day trip from Samui or Chumphon.

[ginjag]

Martial Law or political chaos.........take your pick.

Your thinking is very short term, perhaps you've gone native. What do you think the end game to all this will be? It must be that martial law stays in place, forever, orrrr, the push back against such a dictatorial regime will be so great that 'political chaos' will be like nothing you've seen yet

All that will have happened is that a bad situation has been made potentially much worse.

I think the end game to all this will be a free and fair election. It may be a little later than originally planned, but it will happen.

Sorry WB, I usually agree with the majority of your posts, but how an earth can a 'free and fair' election take place when people are forbidden from even talking about politics?

OTT post---who are banned from talking politics. Do you foretell what is going to happen at the start of 2016 ?? or is it your rhetoric to speak like this.

[jpeg]

As usual, the TAT is blaming the Martial Law statutes for the decline in tourist traffic. The fact that the over-all LOS, increasingly negative, abundantly resentful, red-necked social behavior of Thai menfolk (toward foreigners),is being constantly reported, via the internet (international) news medium, has absolutely nothing to do with it, I suppose

Tourists don't notice these kinds of things. Only people that have lived here a few years do.

This WAS true not so many years ago. BUT. With the World's media, via Social Media, reporting on the slaughter of two tourists and the present incumbents' arrogant ignorant response to it, EVERYONE is now aware of what could happen to them here and the response to it. Would you be happy about your family visiting this country after all that's been said and not done?

This is a whole new World and the junta are of course, by dint of what they are, are incapable of dealing with it. What they gonna do? Close down the bloody internet?

[ginjag]

The OP stated that my interpretation was correct. It is my opinion - very difficult to prove what is the actual reason because that would mean polling all the tourists who cancelled their trip. However, Occam's Razor would suggest that the political events in Thailand, that were publicized worldwide, followed by an immediate downward trend in tourism, is a major contributing reason. Notice that the single largest loss of tourists was in June, when tourism was down 25%. There could be a myriad of reasons, but I would postulate that at least some of that had to do with the coup.

This is a rational discussion - no need to share your personal health issues. If you are sick, you should seek immediate medical care.

So many things to consider----you failed to state outright that PTP polices were a factor---also April is the start of the RAIN season.

If it is rational balance your rhetoric-clan view. be fair.. coup coup coup army army. How can YOUR version be correct if you stated it is difficult to prove ??? Scams rain-- schools not out in June, events here that no PM could control. World money problems---Chinese tourists drop 25% see the picture.

I didn't know rainy season started in April, but even if it does, it does every year and would not be a reason for a year to year downward trend.

Like I said - cause and effect. Occam's Razor (http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/occam.html) says that ""when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better." I stated in the last post that polictical events, including election blocking, protests, and violent acts from both sides contributed to the initial downward trend. This was further exacerbated by the imposition of martial law and the coup in May, leading to a 25% reduction in June. The continuance of the downward trend is primarely attributed to the continuance of martial law, and also magnified by world events such as the drop in the ruble.

Scams, schools not out in June, rainy season - happen every year, and previous years saw growth in tourism, so I discount those reasons.

TAT growth in tourism ??? joke. You did not know the rainy season starts in April and ends in November ??? OFF season comes to mind ??? get it.

Election blocking has something to do with a drop in tourism. ???

Non alcohol days does not stop tourists coming even, I will grant you one thing---you have mentioned a few of the PTP factors that contributed BUT not enough of them. Without their roll tourism would have increased.

[andy the man]

Political chaos, Martial Law, Surrogate Scandals, Koh Tao murders, Koh Tao murder cover up, Slavery scandals, Police Corruption, Corruption Corruption Corruption etc etc etc.......all widely covered by foreign media

Would you travel to a place where police might 'pop' something in your pocket................?

I personally know 4 people who have cancelled Thai holidays.

[whybother]

Sorry WB, I usually agree with the majority of your posts, but how an earth can a 'free and fair' election take place when people are forbidden from even talking about politics?

Are elections being held now?