Final rice export expected in mid-November

[Lite Beer]

Final rice export expected in mid-November

BANGKOK: -- The cabinet is expected to receive the final report of rice held in the stockpiles in the middle of this month, said finance permanent secretary Rangsan Srivorasart today.

He estimated that if all the 5 percent rice out of 8 million tonnes of rice in storage were sold out at 8,000 baht a tonne, the loss incurred would be about 144 billion baht without taking into account the loss from depreciation.

If a 10 percent depreciation per year is taken into account, the depreciation for the past two years during the implementation of the rice pledging scheme, the total depreciation will be 20-25 percent or a loss of between 54-67 billion baht, said Mr Rangsan.

The anticipated loss will be 200 billion baht plus the 300 billion baht earlier incurred, the total loss from the scheme will come to 500 billion baht in total, he said.

The anticipated total loss will be less if the government manages to get better prices for the rice sale.

Source: http://englishnews.t...d-mid-november/

-- Thai PBS 2014-11-02

[Costas2008]

500 billion baht of tax payers money lost and they are still thinking if they should issue an impeachment order for Yingluck!

[worgeordie]

I wonder if they have also factored warehouse fees in with that too,

that alone will come to a tidy sum,and add to the projected losses

regards worgeordie

[expat_4_life]

I'm not so sure that we'll ever know the true extent of the losses, but it will be huge. What has depreciation got to do with it anyway,

fancy accounting to fiddle the amount that was really lost?

Between all the various published numbers, the final report yet to come, and the brilliant investigative journalism here (not)

I don't really see how any believable number will ever be published.

Edited November 2, 2014 by expat_4_life

[Crushdepth]

500 billion baht of tax payers money lost and they are still thinking if they should issue an impeachment order for Yingluck!

If only they'd sent farmers a cheque instead of this stupid scheme.

[473geo]

Slow pick up of last years stored crop, from the one crop producer, at the moment, so there is still some perfectly good rice purchased last year to hit the market. The paddy rice price will not raise anytime soon unless perhaps there are millions of tons written off as substandard.

[JOC]

500 billion baht of tax payers money lost and they are still thinking if they should issue an impeachment order for Yingluck!

The general, after just four months in power, gave the ricefarmers 40 billion baht as a present!!

Maybe he should join Yingluck in the impeachment-dock??

Not defending YL, but her successor should be careful, he doesn't fall of his high horse!!

[Local Drunk]

500 billion baht of tax payers money lost and they are still thinking if they should issue an impeachment order for Yingluck!

If only they'd sent farmers a cheque instead of this stupid scheme.

This stupid scheme was engineered to win votes to enrich a few.

[rubl]

500 billion baht of tax payers money lost and they are still thinking if they should issue an impeachment order for Yingluck!

The general, after just four months in power, gave the ricefarmers 40 billion baht as a present!!

Maybe he should join Yingluck in the impeachment-dock??

Not defending YL, but her successor should be careful, he doesn't fall of his high horse!!

Not defending the PM, but his predecessor lost 500++ billion Baht on what was described as a 'self-financing scheme' which justified the 500 billion Baht revolving funds outside the National Budget. Here we talk about a 40 billion Baht subsidy which is included in the National Budget.

[JOC]

According to Khun Rangson in the OP there are 8 million tonnes in storage.

According to Prayuth a couple of days ago, there are 18 million tonnes in storage.

Someone is lying!! Wonder who??

[rubl]

According to Khun Rangson in the OP there are 8 million tonnes in storage.

According to Prayuth a couple of days ago, there are 18 million tonnes in storage.

Someone is lying!! Wonder who??

I suspect a simple typo.

Mind you, with all information we received over the last years consistency would be really suspect

[Ricardo]

I doubt that I am the first to notice that the title should read "Final Rice Report", and not "Final Rice Export", there's an unsubtle difference !

[Robby nz]

I doubt that I am the first to notice that the title should read "Final Rice Report", and not "Final Rice Export", there's an unsubtle difference !

You are not the first but you are the first to comment on it, others have been to busy having a kick.

[Pib]

The anticipated loss will be 200 billion baht plus the 300 billion baht earlier incurred, the total loss from the scheme will come to 500 billion baht in total, he said.

Wow...the detailed math to come up with a "500" billion baht figure. Whenever I see figures like this I figure they are pulling the number out of their ass or the actual number is higher.

[NeverSure]

This is what doesn't make sense to me. They are talking about selling remaining rice stocks with a relatively low loss.

What about the 700 billion baht that was borrowed from the Ag Bank and hasn't been paid back? It is carried off the books and not as an expense or loss because they've always claimed there was rice to sell and pay it back. (Which we always knew was BS because they paid twice the world price for that rice even if it was all there in good condition which it isn't.)

I suppose that it's going to take the IMF to expose this loss and debt and adjust Thailand's debt to GDP ratio which at the moment is a lie.

[Thai at Heart]

8 million tonnes of rice in storage

Whilst everyone was freaking out, did the sell 9mn tonne? where did it all go?

[marinediscoking]

I wonder where all the TV rice experts are now? Thought they had proof half of the rice was missing?

Isn't the government still subsidizing all sales of diesel, NGV and LPG fuels as well? That has got to cost a lot.

[Ricardo]

I wonder where all the TV rice experts are now? Thought they had proof half of the rice was missing?

Isn't the government still subsidizing all sales of diesel, NGV and LPG fuels as well? That has got to cost a lot.

"Thought they had proof half of the rice was missing?"

Do you have a source for that claim ... I've been away, and must have missed seeing it.

If half the rice really were missing, then perhaps there might have been an element of truth, in all those PTP-claims of massive rice-deals with China.

[BSJ]

It was reported in another thread there is a substantial sale of rice to China.....which is a good thing. And the proposed China to Bangkok railway has a rice buy component in the deal.

Lets be honest, for the rice price/availability equilibrium to get back in balance the massive amounts in storage have to be whittled down.

[Thai at Heart]

It was reported in another thread there is a substantial sale of rice to China.....which is a good thing. And the proposed China to Bangkok railway has a rice buy component in the deal.

Lets be honest, for the rice price/availability equilibrium to get back in balance the massive amounts in storage have to be whittled down.

Well it means they have flogged 9mn tonnes in double quick time. Now they report 90% of what is left is not use able or degraded.

Is that 80% of 8mn tonnes? Its a just info being flung into the public domain .

[Ricardo]

It was reported in another thread there is a substantial sale of rice to China.....which is a good thing. And the proposed China to Bangkok railway has a rice buy component in the deal.

Lets be honest, for the rice price/availability equilibrium to get back in balance the massive amounts in storage have to be whittled down.

I didn't realise that either of those had yet been shipped, I thought they were just future possible-deals, under discussion ?

[bassman]

From the article: "He estimated that if all the 5 percent rice out of 8 million tonnes of rice in storage were sold out at 8,000 baht a tonne, the loss incurred would be about 144 billion baht without taking into account the loss from depreciation."

Remember that there are other varieties of rice in storage, Jasmine, par boiled/sticky, more/less than 5%(broken) and for sure a few others.

However a piss poor written article, why do they start out addressing one part of the stockpile then go into total losses? As with so many published articles in Thailand the math never adds up, this is just more confusing smoke screen of the project.

[allan michaud]

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I'm not so sure that we'll ever know the true extent of the losses, but it will be huge. What has depreciation got to do with it anyway,

fancy accounting to fiddle the amount that was really lost?

Between all the various published numbers, the final report yet to come, and the brilliant investigative journalism here (not)

I don't really see how any believable number will ever be published.

Depreciation has EVERYHTING to do with it! Personally I think the figure is closer to 700 or 800 billion from the multitude of figures given over the past couple of years, but as you say we will never know the real truth. Loss of reputation my be even more costly in the long run as the last govt tried to screw over at least 2 countries with rotten rice.

[Bignose]

The figures quoted in relation to this scheme are absolutely mind boggling, the resulting debt will affect this country and it's people for years to come.

Even the most loyal supporters of the previous government must now accept this was an unmitigated disaster for the country, at the very least it was gross mismanagement. The worst case scenario would involve massive corruption, theft and dishonesty at the highest level.

The allegations of a "witch hunt" or perceived retribution directed at the former PM and her family can (and must) be ignored, an intense and thorough investigation followed by open and transparent prosecutions must take place.

If this country is to develop and grow issues like this must be dealt with, it is imperative that the people of this country see those responsible brought to book. The people now in power must know what went on, there should be no expense spared in proving what went before. The facts must be laid bare so everyone can see who benefited from this debacle, maybe then the old allegiances and misplaced loyalty will vanish.

The people of Thailand deserve no less.

[rickirs]

"If a 10 percent depreciation per year is taken into account, the depreciation for the past two years during the implementation of the rice pledging scheme, the total depreciation will be 20-25 percent or a loss of between 54-67 billion baht, said Mr Rangsan."

Depreciation is not an operating cost. It is a cost against invested capital.

It is a cost netted against against TAXABLE INCOME that can shelter or lower income taxes. The government is tax exempt regarding government owned assets.

.

So the mention of loss of revenues from depreciation is misleading.

"... if all the 5 percent rice out of 8 million tonnes of rice in storage were sold out at 8,000 baht a tonne, the loss incurred would be about 144 billion baht without taking into account the loss from depreciation."

Why Bt8,000/tn?

2014-10-16 "General Chatchai disclosed that the Ministry has reached out to rice traders and exporters on securing a guaranteed price for the 2014-15 crop yields. Assessments of both domestic and foreign markets have indicated that jasmine rice with a moisture content of under 15% should fetch an acceptable medium price of between 15,000 - 16,000 Baht."

2014-10-25 Permanent Secretary for Commerce Chutima Boonyaprapatsorn: "the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) will pay participating farmers 90 percent of their grains’ market value, or 11,700 baht a ton for sticky rice and 15,400 baht a ton for jasmine rice." So means the expected market value would be Bt13,000 and Bt17,000 per ton respectfully. Is the Government overstating the loss from the rice pledge program by about 60% and, if so, to what end? That cetainly wouldn't lead to Happiness, especially to the farmers for the remainder of 2014.

[trainman34014]

All the Politicians in power at the time of the 'Rice Scam' should already be locked up on remand pending trial. If found guilty they should not only serve long prison sentences but should have their assets confiscated to repay monies lost. But this is Thailand.....land of dreams, where everyone of 'High So ' status is regarded as untouchable, no matter how much they damage the country or it's people.

Morally bankrupt at the very highest levels of society, the country is doomed to a downward spiral and there is no way it can be prevented......period.

[bassman]

"If a 10 percent depreciation per year is taken into account, the depreciation for the past two years during the implementation of the rice pledging scheme, the total depreciation will be 20-25 percent or a loss of between 54-67 billion baht, said Mr Rangsan."

Depreciation is not an operating cost. It is a cost against invested capital.

It is a cost netted against against TAXABLE INCOME that can shelter or lower income taxes. The government is tax exempt regarding government owned assets.

.

So the mention of loss of revenues from depreciation is misleading.

"... if all the 5 percent rice out of 8 million tonnes of rice in storage were sold out at 8,000 baht a tonne, the loss incurred would be about 144 billion baht without taking into account the loss from depreciation."

Why Bt8,000/tn?

2014-10-16 "General Chatchai disclosed that the Ministry has reached out to rice traders and exporters on securing a guaranteed price for the 2014-15 crop yields. Assessments of both domestic and foreign markets have indicated that jasmine rice with a moisture content of under 15% should fetch an acceptable medium price of between 15,000 - 16,000 Baht."

2014-10-25 Permanent Secretary for Commerce Chutima Boonyaprapatsorn: "the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) will pay participating farmers 90 percent of their grains’ market value, or 11,700 baht a ton for sticky rice and 15,400 baht a ton for jasmine rice." So means the expected market value would be Bt13,000 and Bt17,000 per ton respectfully. Is the Government overstating the loss from the rice pledge program by about 60% and, if so, to what end? That cetainly wouldn't lead to Happiness, especially to the farmers for the remainder of 2014.

Rick, Bt 8,000 a ton is for 5% broken, white rice. Sticky rice (long season) and jasmine are more valuable. Bt 8,000 a ton for white rice is about where the current market for new season white rice is at for the farmers. They are dreaming if they think the price paid for old stockpile will go at 8 baht per kilo as new crop is more valuable.

The current government would be well off to liquidate their stocks of old rice the quicker the better. Last week the PM urged farmers to build their own storage and not take rice to the market until next year in the off season. What Thailand does not need is more rice in any kind of storage. Over the previous two years Thailand has consumed and exported almost average amounts (with exports down appx. 10-15 %). Despite the near normal sales of rice, this country has amassed 18 million tons of excess rice production. There is no place in the world market for the +9 million tons a year of rice. Most articles written on the rice scheme seem to imply that it has been a total lost by the previous administration and that loss has now been budgeted. Time for Thailand to clear their warehouses and send the 90% tainted rice to animal feed mills and ethanol plants as is always the saying in business, "never too late to cut your losses."

Makes me wonder why the new government is so keen on keeping and selling off these "lost crops" with their questionable accounting. There is still a lot of room for mass corruption in this scheme and I hope the new regime keeps it all clean and transparent.

[MediaWatcher]

Can some explain, to me, what the "headline" has to do with the post.

[Chris Lawrence]

It was reported in another thread there is a substantial sale of rice to China.....which is a good thing. And the proposed China to Bangkok railway has a rice buy component in the deal.

Lets be honest, for the rice price/availability equilibrium to get back in balance the massive amounts in storage have to be whittled down.

Well it means they have flogged 9mn tonnes in double quick time. Now they report 90% of what is left is not use able or degraded.

Is that 80% of 8mn tonnes? Its a just info being flung into the public domain .

Yes, what has happened? Plus what JOC said above?

These reports cannot go out without the approval of the military junta due to martial law.

So every second day there appears a typo? Have to be kidding.

These guys shoot people for a living, and probably don't want any prisoners left around to be interrogated later.

At some stage they really need to an audit that has credibility, because what is being reported is a load of bulls manure.

[Fab5BKK]

... and believing that the minimum salary in Thailand is over THB800K (or THB600K in your edited post) does show your very little knowledge about Thailand's economics

Edited November 3, 2014 by Fab5BKK