No progress in deep South unless Thailand drops strongman act

[webfact]

No progress in deep South unless Thailand drops strongman act
Don Pathan
Special to The Nation


Bomb squad members inspect the site of a roadside bomb attack on a patrol vehicle carrying soldiers in the Rueso district of Narathiwat Wednesday. AFP PHOTO / Madaree TOHLALA

Dictating terms to the insurgents and demanding a 'ceasefire' are not aiding peace efforts

BANGKOK: -- General Aksara Kerdphol, Thailand’s chief negotiator in the deep South peace efforts, is heading to Malaysia to follow up on the recent visit made by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

The chairman of the Thai Army's advisory board is expected to get into the nuts and bolts of a peace process that the central government in Bangkok seems somewhat reluctant to put into action.

Its predecessor, under Yingluck Shinawatra, prematurely launched peace talks knowing that key players such as the Thai Army and the separatist Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) inner circle, plus the militants under its network, were not on board.

What the Yingluck initiative did was set the stage for a political circus. It placed the Thai side on the receiving end of a "spitting contest" that centred on a five-point demand from the BRN that was meant to test the water and see how the Thai side would react.

In the end, the Yingluck team was author of its own downfall - a superficial peace process prematurely launched without first resolving serious issues and obstacles. These included immunity for the BRN negotiators and formal recognition of the group's political wing, so that the separatists could surface publicly and engage Bangkok and the world community on their own terms.

Prayut is determined not to make the same "mistakes". In his mind, Thailand has to be the one dictating the terms to the BRN and other separatist organisations, not the other way around. In other words, Thailand can't afford to look weak.

Moreover, the Army never liked the idea of a formal peace process anyway. They preferred discreet meetings that involved a small number of people.

"Even the idea of providing a legislative backing for an agency to ensure continuity for further peace talks regardless of a change in government is not in the minds of the current crop of rulers," said a government source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

During his recent trip to Malaysia, Prayut's message to the separatist groups was that if they wanted to talk peace with the Thais, they would have to do it from a common platform. And there would have to be a "period of peace" before talks could begin. Both demands are virtually impossible to meet at this point in time, given the fact that the group that controls the vast majority of insurgent combatants - the BRN - is not prepared to come to the table.

As for unity among the separatists, there was some progress late last year when the three Patani United Liberation Organisation factions agreed to take part in the Yingluck administration's peace initiative. But then came the Bangkok Shutdown, which put the Yingluck government into survival mode for the next six months until the coup.

BRN sources said its negotiators/political wing need capacity building and a better understanding of international norms and practices before they could surface to meet the Thais and the international community.

Until then, the best Thailand and the world are going to get is a "cut-out" guy like Hasan Taib, who will continue to act as a go-between for the secretive BRN inner circle and the outside world.

Observers say the Thai side is not eager to talk or make any sort of concessions, and the BRN is not prepared to come to the table until its people are prepared. The end result, it seems, is the continuation of violence, and military means to quell the conflict. And while Bangkok has announced a large budget for development in the deep South, money never seems to solve anything in this historically contested region, much less close the trust gap between the Malays of Patani and the Thai state.

The Thai military is banking that violence will continue to drop as they take the fight to the insurgents by stepping up their long-range reconnaissance patrols. That's one of the reasons why the central government is playing up the so-called Tung Yang Daeng model - a shabby effort to outsource security work to villagers, while government soldiers go out and hunt down the militants cell by cell.

The Thai side is also hoping to set up a back-channel dialogue with individual separatist organisations in a bid to get a better assessment of which combatant groups are capable of what.

They would prefer the meetings to be small and secret - just as they were in the 1980s - and small-scale horse trading can be expected. The BRN say they haven't ruled out back-channel talks, while other long-standing separatist groups say they would like to use this forum to show the Thais what they are capable of.

Publicly, the central government is taking credit for the drop in violence in the region. But BRN sources, as well as observers of the conflict, say the drop in the number of incidents comes against an increase in their intensity. It also needs to be emphasised that the nature of this conflict is not conventional warfare. And as long as the insurgents can prove they are "relevant" with sporadic attacks, the southern insurgency will be far from over for Thailand.

Over the past year alone, insurgents have shown an ability to expand their operations to new territories - areas such as Yala's Betong or Songkhla's Sadao district, which had been left untouched for a decade.

Then there was the massive double bomb hidden in the back of a pickup truck stolen from Pattani that was parked behind the police station Phuket in December last year. Thai security officials said the bombs, each with a blast radius of 500 metres, were expertly assembled and the switch left off on purpose. Separatist sources said the twin-bomb was a stern warning to the Thai side of what the insurgents were capable of. The next one, they added, might not be a warning.

Don Pathan is a member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com), and a freelance development and security analyst based in Yala, Thailand.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/No-progress-in-deep-South-unless-Thailand-drops-st-30249556.html


-- The Nation 2014-12-11

[chainarong]

Thailand has been addressing this problem for decades , in the past 20 years it has steadily got worse and is not improving in the slightest , the big mistake was in the reign of terror by Thaksin, the terrorist will not forget , no matter what you come up with will be a complete utter waste of time, over the decades Thailand has made massive mistakes in the handling of this issue frankly you have made your bed Thailand, now you have to lay in it , till maybe the terrorist get their way.

[SOTIRIOS]

......providing thousands of arms.....to 'counter' the problem...as was announced recently.....

,,,what do you expect.....

...how about admitting there is a problem.......then identifying it......the implementing solutions.....

...it seems a human rights issue....

[Tokay]

I thought the great PM said he would have this resolved in a year and everything was better already. Or was that the other cartoon I was watching?

[wvavin]

Its kind of strange that Thailand needs to negotiate with the terrorists creating havoc on its own land. In additional, it has to suffer high casualties at the mercy of these terrorists. I feel that its time for Thailand to engage the Mossads to to deal with these morons in the south.

[phuketrichard]

as long as they refer to the people living in the deep south as Moslems, not thai's

this will never end

[maidee]

it is a cancer, time to cut it off (give it back)

or... sent 100.000 army boys or RTP on inactive posts overthere ... one soldier per family ...

[gchurch259]

If you gave them back the three Provinces they claim belong to Malaysia they would the begin their expansion program on the next Provinces. All down through history Islam has expanded by conquest/conquer. All across Africa and into Europe. Indonesian Militants in the Philippines Lower Islands for decades. Gen Pershing was fighting them in 1924. Some of his tactics slowed it down for many years, but the Liberals of today would not allow his tactics.

This is becoming with, ISIS a "World War of Religion".

In the South they are asking for self government ie; Sharia Law.

Edited December 11, 2014 by gchurch259

[hansnl]

And if they do not play "strongman" the terrorists will see that as weakness.

[wabothai]

The Russians built a wall.

[oldsailor35]

it is a cancer, time to cut it off (give it back)

or... sent 100.000 army boys or RTP on inactive posts overthere ... one soldier per family ...

Exactly ! They have to flood the south with troops, this will severely restrict the movement of the Muslim terrorists, eventually they will all be arrested and have to give up. At the moment they can move around freely shooting innocent teachers etc from motorbikes, placing roadside bombs at will. Put enough troops on the ground and their 'gallop' will swiftly come to a stop.

[HUAHIN62]

it is a cancer, time to cut it off (give it back)

or... sent 100.000 army boys or RTP on inactive posts overthere ... one soldier per family ...

Exactly ! They have to flood the south with troops, this will severely restrict the movement of the Muslim terrorists, eventually they will all be arrested and have to give up. At the moment they can move around freely shooting innocent teachers etc from motorbikes, placing roadside bombs at will. Put enough troops on the ground and their 'gallop' will swiftly come to a stop.

Did this work in Iraq and Afghanistan - no and neither will it work in the south. As long as you dont address the problems of the south you cant win the war, because the war is based on these problems.

[John1012]

as long as they refer to the people living in the deep south as Moslems, not thai's

this will never end

If the perpetrators of the acts of violence against the populace in the south were Thais then there would not be a problem. They are followers of the religion of 'peace and love', their allegance is first Islam, then ??. They will NEVER be Thais.Militant Islam is a malignant cancer in the world and unless there is some extreme action taken to curtail the spread of this disease, then it will eventually become too widespread and we all will be subject to Sharia law, (is that an oxymoron) Sharia and Law. What to do? Western Governements are too weak , too dependant on Islamic controlled oil, to eradicate the cancer from within their societies. The Thai government would probably be capable of cauterising the festering wound in the South , but the international pressure from more liberal regimes would be such that they would not be able to do what is necessary.

[Edday Stedday]

And if they do not play "strongman" the terrorists will see that as weakness.

Only the progressive liberals see it like that. Thailand has to stand it's ground or it will end up as pathetic as the capitulating west.

[Edday Stedday]

as long as they refer to the people living in the deep south as Moslems, not thai's

this will never end

If the perpetrators of the acts of violence against the populace in the south were Thais then there would not be a problem. They are followers of the religion of 'peace and love', their allegance is first Islam, then ??. They will NEVER be Thais.Militant Islam is a malignant cancer in the world and unless there is some extreme action taken to curtail the spread of this disease, then it will eventually become too widespread and we all will be subject to Sharia law, (is that an oxymoron) Sharia and Law. What to do? Western Governements are too weak , too dependant on Islamic controlled oil, to eradicate the cancer from within their societies. The Thai government would probably be capable of cauterising the festering wound in the South , but the international pressure from more liberal regimes would be such that they would not be able to do what is necessary.

Agreed.

[Jimbo2014]

These loons are at it all over the world from Mindanoa in philipines to northern nigeria and Kenya. Their extreme 'philosophy' brooks no compromise and is completely out of alignment with modern thinking such as freedom of religion and emancipation of women. Good on thailand for not compromising and sinking the boot in.

[wilcopops]

You can tell by the phraseology used that most posters have no idea of the what's why's and wherefores of thevsituyation in the South.

Here's another cliché to chuck in the pot....."hardliner"....e.g. K. Prayuth and his mentor. It would seem unlikely that any real progress can be made if he gets his way.

Edited December 11, 2014 by wilcopops

[Chicog]

There is no negotiation with Islamic extremists who want to establish yet another Islamic state run under Sharia law.

There is no negotiation other than giving them what all jihadists really want: Martyrdom.

Muslims throughout Thailand live in peace alongside Buddhists, what makes these so special?

They should be saying to the "good" muslims of the South: "Tell us who the extremists are, we will wipe them out so that you can live in peace".

[kaobang]

very interesting video

[Travelman868]

......providing thousands of arms.....to 'counter' the problem...as was announced recently.....

,,,what do you expect.....

...how about admitting there is a problem.......then identifying it......the implementing solutions.....

...it seems a human rights issue....

It would be a human rights issue except these people are sub humans. Anyone who can cut the heads off small children are animals.

Muslims have spent the last 1400 years killing people who would not convert, so even if they are given all the Southern States they will

continue.

[Alwyn]

If you gave them back the three Provinces they claim belong to Malaysia they would the begin their expansion program on the next Provinces. All down through history Islam has expanded by conquest/conquer. All across Africa and into Europe. Indonesian Militants in the Philippines Lower Islands for decades. Gen Pershing was fighting them in 1924. Some of his tactics slowed it down for many years, but the Liberals of today would not allow his tactics.

This is becoming with, ISIS a "World War of Religion".

In the South they are asking for self government ie; Sharia Law.

You hit the nail on the head with your first sentence "give back" The land did belong to a Malaysia, some Sultanate or something a 100 years ago. I personally think the term "strongman act" in the title is hilarious, all the military have done is sent military grade weapons to the families living there as they can't be bothered to do anything themselves!

[ExPratt]

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If you gave them back the three Provinces they claim belong to Malaysia they would the begin their expansion program on the next Provinces. All down through history Islam has expanded by conquest/conquer. All across Africa and into Europe. Indonesian Militants in the Philippines Lower Islands for decades. Gen Pershing was fighting them in 1924. Some of his tactics slowed it down for many years, but the Liberals of today would not allow his tactics.

This is becoming with, ISIS a "World War of Religion".

In the South they are asking for self government ie; Sharia Law.

You hit the nail on the head with your first sentence "give back" The land did belong to a Malaysia, some Sultanate or something a 100 years ago. I personally think the term "strongman act" in the title is hilarious, all the military have done is sent military grade weapons to the families living there as they can't be bothered to do anything themselves!

The states in Malaysia on the border all have a very high percentage of Muslims. I don't think the Malaysian government will want to take theses states over , they must play lip service to it but they are on very shakey ground for the next election. UMNO who are the Muslim party in the Governing coalition have right of centre Muslim policies and will not be the Party for the 3 new states. The PKR party are a little more to the right and are in the Opposition coalition that finished a very close second in last years election

[Thai at Heart]

as long as they refer to the people living in the deep south as Moslems, not thai's

this will never end

If the perpetrators of the acts of violence against the populace in the south were Thais then there would not be a problem. They are followers of the religion of 'peace and love', their allegance is first Islam, then ??. They will NEVER be Thais.Militant Islam is a malignant cancer in the world and unless there is some extreme action taken to curtail the spread of this disease, then it will eventually become too widespread and we all will be subject to Sharia law, (is that an oxymoron) Sharia and Law. What to do? Western Governements are too weak , too dependant on Islamic controlled oil, to eradicate the cancer from within their societies. The Thai government would probably be capable of cauterising the festering wound in the South , but the international pressure from more liberal regimes would be such that they would not be able to do what is necessary.

Well here you have an egg and a chicken. In order to be Thai, one socially needs to be Buddhist. So now there is a fundamental problem to the whole discussion.

[ultimate weapon]

If you gave them back the three Provinces they claim belong to Malaysia they would the begin their expansion program on the next Provinces. All down through history Islam has expanded by conquest/conquer. All across Africa and into Europe. Indonesian Militants in the Philippines Lower Islands for decades. Gen Pershing was fighting them in 1924. Some of his tactics slowed it down for many years, but the Liberals of today would not allow his tactics.

This is becoming with, ISIS a "World War of Religion".

In the South they are asking for self government ie; Sharia Law.

Why do people always see islam as like the victims when they are not?

Why? Why? why?

[DLock]

very interesting video

That was a really interesting video. Thanks for posting.

Difficult situation with neither side wanting to back down.

Personally, since the land is Thailand, I think that a military solution is the only solution that will work. Will more Muslims arrive to fight, like they are doing with ISIS? Probably. Will many people die? Yes. But they are already dying...and they will continue to die. Status Quo is not working. It just shows that leaders don't know what to do. It's a Thai problem. The Malaysian Government really doesn't want to do anything and why should they? Leave them out of it.

In my naivety I can't understand why people just can't live together. They have their mosques and temples like they do in other parts of the world. They have their own religious beliefs like they do elsewhere. But the law of the land is Thailand. It must be respected. Live together in peace. If the Muslims want Sharia law and to rule themselves, go back to Malaysia...and Malay law.

...but one thing is for sure. I will never visit there.

[ggt]

Let me get this right...you want the Thai government and army to become all humble and passive so they can negotiate properly with a group of thugs who have indiscriminately killed innocent people in southern Thailand for over 10 years...

Good Luck with that...

Better to negotiate from a position of strength than act weak in the face of an enemy which only understands terror...

[rickirs]

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The Russians built a wall.

Gen. Prayuth wanted to build a wall too between Thailand and Malaysia. Yingluck thanked him for his profound solution and trashed it.

[rickirs]

Military actions for peace talks:

1) Implement a Vietnam-style Tung Yang Daeng model to contain and destroy the insurgents - didn't work for USA against Viet Cong

2) Dialog with insurgent groups to determine their combat resources - thanks but no thanks

3) Require insurgents to negotiate as a single group - instead of small radicalized groups have one big radicalized group

4) Require insurgents to end violence for an unspecified time - mission accomplished

5) Send additional 10,000 troops to the South - peace with the Big Stick

6) Thailand sovereignty will prevail - you have been colonized by Thailand and need to know your place

7) Malaysia is the "one and only" - if no peace talks develop it's Malaysia's fault

If there is to be an agreement between adverse parties, both must make painful concessions for a common goal. Thai military has repeatedly stated what it wants out of a peace process, but never discusses what it can offer. Its strategy has been "give and take" - I take and you give. The situation in the South is going to get a lot more "complex" before it becomes simplified.

[happydude303]

If you give back the land there only move to the new boarder and start sneaking in , the problem with all them lots is they loved to go to other people's country's and turn them into the shit hole there trying to escape from

[Gonsalviz]

There will never be progress in the south, no matter what theThais do. The radicals from Malaysia will see to it.