What's the fate of Thailand's Expat off shore oil workers when oil prices drop so low?

[laubau]

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

[catman20]

DCM !

[hawker9000]

My thoughts same as 2008/09 "correction" the prices will go back up, this is an opportunity to clear out all the "dross" from the companies which have become bloated over the last few years

I agree. Things not now in "equilibrium". Falling prices like this mean two things. Some extraction activities which were profitable at $100+ a barrel, are now no longer; maybe not in the short run, but if the price remains depressed, then these activities will be cut back and new projects cancelled. So supply has to diminish. In other energy-dependent sectors of the world's economies, low energy prices will stimulate growth. Demand will gradually increase. When rising demand meets falling supply, there'll be a new equilibrium reached. And for sure, it'll be at a higher price per barrel than exists at the moment. The questions are: what will the new equilibrium price be, and how long will it take to get there? And another question: what will be the long-term effect of this "crash" on the energy production industry and extraction technologies? Having been burned, how long before, and high how will the price have to climb again before those who were in the higher-cost-per-barrel activities are willing to get back in the game?

Enjoy the low prices to the extent that you can. They won't last forever. Nor will the lower cost per barrel be passed along completely to consumers, esp. not in the short term. The pendulum has swung quite far in one direction. If the production that can't be quickly restored gets cut off significantly, when the pendulum swings back again, the new prices just might be jaw-dropping. Right now is where countries should be topping off and even expanding their strategic petroleum reserves.

Edited January 18, 2015 by hawker9000

[rodroy]

Same as 1986,1999 & 2008 layoffs have already started

As soon as projected revenues for publicly traded companies drop financial analysts demand plans for cost reductions which after so many times are well rehearsed and usually initiated in advance of actual slowdowns!

Historically contractors have addressed this issue with short sighted approaches by releasing field staff and leaving management untouched with the mistaken notion that fired field staff will flock back when activity picked up! Wrong!

Laid off expat staff living here normally stay until they run out of money or friends to borrow from then go home to look for work!

What is not usually highlighted is cessation of recruitment from local universities and Tech Colleges and the fact that local staff are not immune to the cut backs!

Cycle of life in the oilfield!

BTW the cuts underway are so deep that even management heads are being chopped!

Edited January 19, 2015 by rodroy

[rodroy]

My thoughts same as 2008/09 "correction" the prices will go back up, this is an opportunity to clear out all the "dross" from the companies which have become bloated over the last few years

I agree. Things not now in "equilibrium". Falling prices like this mean two things. Some extraction activities which were profitable at $100+ a barrel, are now no longer; maybe not in the short run, but if the price remains depressed, then these activities will be cut back and new projects cancelled. So supply has to diminish. In other energy-dependent sectors of the world's economies, low energy prices will stimulate growth. Demand will gradually increase. When rising demand meets falling supply, there'll be a new equilibrium reached. And for sure, it'll be at a higher price per barrel than exists at the moment. The questions are: what will the new equilibrium price be, and how long will it take to get there? And another question: what will be the long-term effect of this "crash" on the energy production industry and extraction technologies? Having been burned, how long before, and high how will the price have to climb again before those who were in the higher-cost-per-barrel activities are willing to get back in the game?

Enjoy the low prices to the extent that you can. They won't last forever. Nor will the lower cost per barrel be passed along completely to consumers, esp. not in the short term. The pendulum has swung quite far in one direction. If the production that can't be quickly restored gets cut off significantly, when the pendulum swings back again, the new prices just might be jaw-dropping. Right now is where countries should be topping off and even expanding their strategic petroleum reserves.

No need to top up just lock in low prices by futures contracts or forward buying! No extra infrastructure required!

[rodroy]

One of my friends is an offshore worker who earned an average of $ 7000\US dollars a month and I hope he and others put some in savings accounts !

Base salary! I think you'll find that there are significant add ons!

Not forgetting that in many cases housing, local coefficients based on geography, tax relief, school fees and vacation tickets bump that number substantially!

[Soutpeel]

One of my friends is an offshore worker who earned an average of $ 7000\US dollars a month and I hope he and others put some in savings accounts !

Base salary! I think you'll find that there are significant add ons!

Not forgetting that in many cases housing, local coefficients based on geography, tax relief, school fees and vacation tickets bump that number substantially!

I think your getting confused, typically some who works offshore is on a FIFO basis therefore most of the add on's you mention wouldnt apply, as they are not shore based in another country and will not have their families with them

One suspects the average 7k/m mentioned is after tax working offshore in their own country, one suspects in the example given its the gulf of Mexico

[hawker9000]

@ Rodroy: Do national governments routinely engage in commodities futures trading? I guess they deal in treasury bond futures, and maybe some currency & precious metals hanky-panky, but other commodities? 'Seems like having the policy-making power, & regulating the trading, and then directly engaging in it, would represent a serious conflict of interest.

Edited January 19, 2015 by hawker9000

[gk10002000]

Some obviously will be out of work as the companies downsize. Some of those probably can no longer afford to live in Thailand. Some of them that have invested in property will end up losing that, especially the ones that start having girl friend or wife problems once they see that the money is running out. There are plenty of stories about how land and houses get taken over when the wifey has issues with the Falang. they move on to greener pastures and new falangs.

[eeeya]

Mainly natural gas here, innit (different ballgame to oil, higher demand?) Also, a lot of locals are employed here and are paid a lot less with, say, the UK which is seeing lots of lay-offs.

Yeap oil production is tiny in Thailand, further the offshore fields here can hardly keep up with demand locally for the gas even with imported from Burma, and all there local gas is "sold" to the Thai government, so not really free market economics at play in Thailand

Different dynamic here, will the operators cut back on new capex projects in Thailand ?

Maybe, but only because they are trying to save money in operations in other parts of the world which are getting pummelled

The gas side if the business is pretty stable this neck of the woods

As regards expats in the offshore game here, very few left anyway due to nationalisation, which has nothing to do with drop in prices, it could be 200 a barrel and if your position is on the must nationalisation list by X date that's it games over

'Im inline with this opinion, hoping that domestic consumption of gas will save us. Presently we are going gang busters drilling like there is no tomorrow in the gulf of Thailand.

My other worry though is that I will be replaced by a "national" for a cheaper to save costs across the board .. Thank god there arnt many.

schlumberger laid off 9000 people the other day, Halliburton 1000 in the middle east and another undisclosed amount in Houston..

[Franky Bear]

I finished last job in Kazakhstan on dec 22. I'm a chief rig mechanic. I've had job offers no problem. About to start with one of the majors in Saudi on a 3000 HP driller. Had other offers too. I fly to London in next week to do Saudi medical and visa process

[Franky Bear]

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

I was in Kuwait for a few years. I left because of that stupid rule that you are not allowed a camera phone, personal computer or IPad in the Burgan field. Plus the visa issue was a night mare. But you are right. They are drilling like mad ESP,up,North. I'd not go back there unless I had no choice really

[laubau]

Franky Bear, on 29 Jan 2015 - 18:24, said:

laubau, on 17 Jan 2015 - 08:38, said:

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

I was in Kuwait for a few years. I left because of that stupid rule that you are not allowed a camera phone, personal computer or IPad in the Burgan field. Plus the visa issue was a night mare. But you are right. They are drilling like mad ESP,up,North. I'd not go back there unless I had no choice really

Things have changed A BIT in Kuwait. Many rigs (and more monthly) are now drilling outside the KOC gates so bringing your personal computer and internet stuff is becoming much less of a problem. You can also get gate passes and loading notes for your personal computer now. Getting a visa is also much quicker now. Indian nationals are only taking 5 - 6 weeks to get residency and most other nationalities are quicker. I got mine years ago and I did not need the police background check as it was not required then. Renewing your Kuwait residency is super quick and easy! You are also then covered by the Kuwait medical care with hospital coverage which is virtually free!!

[hawker9000]

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

'Good news and more power to 'em! Helping to keep the oil supply up and the price down! Thank heaven Obama has no veto power there.

[Franky Bear]

Franky Bear, on 29 Jan 2015 - 18:24, said:

laubau, on 17 Jan 2015 - 08:38, said:

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

I was in Kuwait for a few years. I left because of that stupid rule that you are not allowed a camera phone, personal computer or IPad in the Burgan field. Plus the visa issue was a night mare. But you are right. They are drilling like mad ESP,up,North. I'd not go back there unless I had no choice really

Things have changed A BIT in Kuwait. Many rigs (and more monthly) are now drilling outside the KOC gates so bringing your personal computer and internet stuff is becoming much less of a problem. You can also get gate passes and loading notes for your personal computer now. Getting a visa is also much quicker now. Indian nationals are only taking 5 - 6 weeks to get residency and most other nationalities are quicker. I got mine years ago and I did not need the police background check as it was not required then. Renewing your Kuwait residency is super quick and easy! You are also then covered by the Kuwait medical care with hospital coverage which is virtually free!!

Fair enough. I'll never go back though

[laubau]

Franky Bear, on 30 Jan 2015 - 14:06, said:

laubau, on 29 Jan 2015 - 20:15, said:

Franky Bear, on 29 Jan 2015 - 18:24, said:

Franky Bear, on 29 Jan 2015 - 18:24, said:

laubau, on 17 Jan 2015 - 08:38, said:

laubau, on 17 Jan 2015 - 08:38, said:

I am over 55 and have experienced the oil boom and bust cycle many times. ...but no more because I work 28 + 28 in Kuwait and I have been here the last 10 years. Kuwait will not slow down but will ramp up drilling activity rather than curtailing it just as they have done in the past during busts. The pay here is a bit lower but over the long run you make more money because you are always working and ALL the work is on land. When the oil price falls, Kuwait drills much more during busts than most areas because this is their only real source of income. I have lived in Thailand for years and most of my career was spent working offshore SE Asia. My advice to you is to get a job in Kuwait and there are plenty available in all sectors of the drilling operations.

I was in Kuwait for a few years. I left because of that stupid rule that you are not allowed a camera phone, personal computer or IPad in the Burgan field. Plus the visa issue was a night mare. But you are right. They are drilling like mad ESP,up,North. I'd not go back there unless I had no choice really

Things have changed A BIT in Kuwait. Many rigs (and more monthly) are now drilling outside the KOC gates so bringing your personal computer and internet stuff is becoming much less of a problem. You can also get gate passes and loading notes for your personal computer now. Getting a visa is also much quicker now. Indian nationals are only taking 5 - 6 weeks to get residency and most other nationalities are quicker. I got mine years ago and I did not need the police background check as it was not required then. Renewing your Kuwait residency is super quick and easy! You are also then covered by the Kuwait medical care with hospital coverage which is virtually free!!

Fair enough. I'll never go back though

I totally understand your feelings towards Kuwait!! You are not alone!!! Kuwait is real steady work for those who want to sock away some extra cash in the twilight of their careers and you can always plan stuff for your regular field breaks well in advance.

[Namplik]

I`m quite happy that I have a safe job in the North Sea(Norway) We have probably the best offshore working conditions in the world

[kbelyeu]

I'm in Brazil and it looks like we are will be adding two new drillships in 2016/2017.

Kurt

[hawker9000]

I'm in Brazil and it looks like we are will be adding two new drillships in 2016/2017.

Kurt

The question is whether any new production coming on line is an attempt to make up lost margin with increased sales volume, or will at least have that effect. Enough of that, I would think, is just going to help drive the oil price down further. I don't understand how increasing the oil supply can do anything BUT that... (In fact, years ago, wasn't OPEC accused of collaboration to deliberately reduce production in an attempt to support the price of oil?) 'Sounds like something that could evolve into a vicious cycle.

[stev514214]

the turn down in my sector (offshore construction /huc and commissioning) started over 4 years ago laying off expats and employing indians.....i tried to fight it but big brother says hard luck get on with it unless you can get expats to work for the same dayrate as the indians !!!!!!! that job overran by 7 months...due to failures.... this one i am on now is allready 3 months behind..

i cant see this oil price affecting us that much to many projects ongoing and big ones as well

saying that just seen on bbc news haliburton is laying off 6500

[DirtyDan]

The thing about the offshore industry here in the Gulf of Thailand is that it's mostly gas and vital for the Kingdom's gas turbine electrical plants. Combine that with our wells blowing down in 4 to 5 years and we've got steady work in the upstream industry. Our queue of projects has been shuffled to remove the lower paying oil wells at the moment, but work is still steady.

I do feel bad for the folks rotating out to oil projects - I remember 2008 and 1999, had to scramble to make the mortgage those years! A guy latches elevators if he has too, but I'm almost getting too old to be climbing to the monkey board.

[Franky Bear]

Ive got lucky and got a job in Thailand in Rayong for a multi national. Doing a shut down at Mattaput till July 25th. Hopefully I'll do enough to be on their next project and future ones

The money sees me good for a good 7-10 months so no complaints

I never thought in a

Million years of get a job here. Never even tried. Then my mate in my

Local said he'd take me on. Get the full WP Wednesday. So having that for a year helps too and opens a few doors