Depreciation of Euro/Baht rate continues?

[manarak]

The Euro is at 36baht down from a years high of 45 and still dropping to what 30? that will be a 33% drop!! thats a shocker and as i fly in on the 30th

its gonna hurt, to hell with QE and all the bla bla bla what it means to me is that for every 200euro i used to change I will now have to change 300 if

the Euro does reach 30baht.My flight is booked and paid for and the first 18 days hotels are booked and paid that will leave 10 nights to cover i guess my normal end of trip 4-5 days in Bangkok will drop off and forget any shopping and gogo bars will be history,This is really bad news for retired people on a fixed

income there will be some sad news to read in the coming months,dont forget in all this economic theory and market- currency manipulation there is a human element to suffer the consequeces .

Well, the role of the central bank and of the currency is not to make sure you can spend cheap holidays abroad - I understand the currency moves can hurt, but it is frivolous to be angry at the programme because it causes your holidays to get more expensive.

Second, forget about guaranteed higher Western purchasing power. Western economies and especially European economies will pay the price for their social policies which were built on earlier exploitation of third world / emerging countries. The net money flow is negative, Western economies are leaking wealth to Asia and BRIC countries and oil producers. To balance European cash flows again, social policies have to be scaled back and workers paid less (in terms of purchasing power compared with BRIC/EM), it is unavoidable.

Third, you could have done your homework, for example by opening a Thai bank account in advance and transferring EUR there while the rates were still ok.

Another thing that is possible to do is to sell EUR and buy USD.

These are normal things to do, if you don't want to do anything of the above but still avoid currency risks, you have no choice but to holiday within the EUR-Zone.

[manarak]

Unfortunately for the Euro..it's in a period of downturn...& worst case scenario ..is at the end!

It's not just one reason...

I think it's too simplistic to blame the "lazy " Greeks but does make for a good argument around the table over a couple beers .....if one knows nothing of world politics & economics.

I would argue that the problems to the Euro are self induced..and now will see mass exit of the currency to US dollars or maybe even the Thai baht...further diminishing it's conversion value.

Now that the EU has introduced "quantitative easing" there is no way out.Fracturing within the European community will escalate.

Germany will be unhappy with the quantitative easing EU policy.

Greece this weekend will probably elect a anti austerity government that will probably default on it's EU loans.

The Swiss this past week unpegged their currency to the Euro.

The European banks are in serious problems & when one fails...many will go down together.

Sanctions against Russia following the foreign policy of the US was probably the nail on the head..and in return Russia put in place their own sanctions.

Supporting the "Nazis" fascist government in Ukraine in a coup last year against it's trade partnership with Russia was/is a colossal mistake.

It's almost laughable...if it wasn't so devastating to the population.

The Greek situation will destroy the EU on the fiscal side.

The Swiss unpegging will destroy the EU on the currency side.

The sanctions against Russia will destroy the EU on the economic side.

The "quantitative easing" will destroy the EU on the monetary side with German opposition...& maybe abandoning the EU altogether.

The war in the Ukraine will destroy the EU on the energy side.

So yeah the Thai economy & Thai baht look quite stable to me compared to the Euro.

Total nonsense!

The Swiss unpegging has zero consequences on the EUR.

European banks don't have serious problems.

The energy side... did you have a look at the oil price?

Also, Germany, although opposing QE by principle, will be very pleased with a fall of the EUR which will boost its non-EU industrial exports.

The Swiss unpegging shows their lack of support and/or confidence in the Euro..also the Swiss government were holding at least half a trillion Euros ..They and everyone will be escaping the Euro by buying ...probably gold or US dollars.

European banks..are in serious problems..they are all tied together so when the crash comes...many will go down.

yes oil price is low but the issue to the EU is Russia stopping the South Stream pipeline & sending the gas to Turkey & Europe can pick up what they need at the Greek border..The pipeline through the Ukraine will be stopped.

Yes the Germans will be happy with the fall of the Euro..as they are happy with the elimination of trade with Russia.

Everyone loves higher prices,higher unemployment,higher uncertainty..oh they love riots in the streets too.

I wouldn't say total nonsense...maybe some of it is...but this is thaivisa afterall

The Swiss unpegged because the SNB would not have been able to face the deluge following Draghi's QE decision.

An anticipation of the EUR plunging is not a loss of confidence. A loss of confidence is when a currency declines due to solvability worries - which has been the case before, but which isn't the case now.

EU imports will get slightly more expensive while daily expenses (food, rents, etc.) will remain the same as well as energy due to the low oil price and high taxation on fuel (50 to 80%).

A lower EUR will help to easy unemployment in the EU too...

So I don't know how you came to your conclusions, but I stocked up on stocks...

For anyone interested, I bought

Carl Zeiss

MTU

Fresenious Medical

Wacker Chemie

Bayer

Merck

Duerr

Krones

Innate pharma

L'oreal

now let's hope for good business

Edited January 23, 2015 by manarak

[gerry123]

all the more reason for U.K. to vote for U.K.I.P

[konying]

It sucks..sam for Aussie dollar, luckily I am on a US dollar contract at the moment but most of my cash is in Aussie so we are bleeding too. NZ dollar is fairing well though

Yair, last year this time my Aussie pension was 31 baht to the OZ$. Last night my pension exchange rate was 24baht!!!

Do not do exchange in au bank.

Thai banks pay 26.16 or there abouts.

Common mistake many make when sending money from au bank to thailand by nominating thai baht instead of aud, so au bank does the exchange which is about 10% lower than a thai bank

[manarak]

the EUR is in free fall !

[iphad]

The EU by implementing "quantitative easing" is basically playing it's last card...instead of cutting debt & spending by the European countries..they will print money to cover the debt.Lots of money.

A trillion Euros will be created by September next year, probably more.

"The European Central Bank took the ultimate policy leap on Thursday, launching a government bond-buying program which will pump hundreds of billions in new money into a sagging euro zone economy.
The ECB said it would purchase sovereign debt from this March until the end of September 2016, despite opposition from Germany's Bundesbank and concerns in Berlin that it could allow spendthrift countries to slacken economic reforms." http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0KU2ST20150122

How do I come up with my conclusions? @manarak...it's called basic economics 101...

Look at Japan...how are they doing with Quantitative easing...

The US can get away with it for now...and they have...but even that bubble will burst some day.

But in the US there is optimism that quantitative easing has stopped...but it won't..it can't.....The Fed will announce QE4...maybe under a new name.

If the billions of Euros were spent wisely...building infrastructure ,improving trade connections..whatever..that would be beneficial...creating money to pay off debt is economic suicide.

I applaud people's optimism...it's better than being depressed...

but unfortunately..Reality is Reality...you can play the game of economics...but eventually the cards fall down.

[MobileContent]

The Euro is at 36baht down from a years high of 45 and still dropping to what 30? that will be a 33% drop!! thats a shocker and as i fly in on the 30th

its gonna hurt, to hell with QE and all the bla bla bla what it means to me is that for every 200euro i used to change I will now have to change 300 if

the Euro does reach 30baht.My flight is booked and paid for and the first 18 days hotels are booked and paid that will leave 10 nights to cover i guess my normal end of trip 4-5 days in Bangkok will drop off and forget any shopping and gogo bars will be history,This is really bad news for retired people on a fixed

income there will be some sad news to read in the coming months,dont forget in all this economic theory and market- currency manipulation there is a human element to suffer the consequeces .

Not really - The Euro has been to high and has been overvalued for to many years and now the correction comes.

As for the farang that have retired in Thailand from the Euro zone they should have have Plan B as pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

I am guessing a lot of farangs are returning back to Europe specially from Pattaya. I called it a cleanup/correction.

[chiang mai]

The Euro is at 36baht down from a years high of 45 and still dropping to what 30? that will be a 33% drop!! thats a shocker and as i fly in on the 30th

its gonna hurt, to hell with QE and all the bla bla bla what it means to me is that for every 200euro i used to change I will now have to change 300 if

the Euro does reach 30baht.My flight is booked and paid for and the first 18 days hotels are booked and paid that will leave 10 nights to cover i guess my normal end of trip 4-5 days in Bangkok will drop off and forget any shopping and gogo bars will be history,This is really bad news for retired people on a fixed

income there will be some sad news to read in the coming months,dont forget in all this economic theory and market- currency manipulation there is a human element to suffer the consequeces .

Not really - The Euro has been to high and has been overvalued for to many years and now the correction comes.

As for the farang that have retired in Thailand from the Euro zone they should have have Plan B as pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

I am guessing a lot of farangs are returning back to Europe specially from Pattaya. I called it a cleanup/correction.

"Returning back", so they're staying where they are, right?

[Naam]

Not really - The Euro has been to high and has been overvalued for to many years and now the correction comes.

As for the farang that have retired in Thailand from the Euro zone they should have have Plan B as pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

I am guessing a lot of farangs are returning back to Europe specially from Pattaya. I called it a cleanup/correction.

pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

says who? why don't you inform yourself instead of posting incorrect information?

[thailiketoo]

pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

I am guessing a lot of farangs are returning back to Europe specially from Pattaya. I called it a cleanup/correction.

If you are an older fellow and have a pension valued at 800,000 baht per year or 66,666 baht per month you can stay in Thailand as long as you like. As Naam mentioned above your information is not correct.

[bitcoinbob]

the european are going to print and print until further notice so the will be printing for at least the next 3 years .they have negative interest rate, 60 billion a month are being printed they like the americans call in QE it is just printing Euro plain and simple and hoping the banks lend like crazy and inflation comes into their system. the chinese are next they just lost their largest trading partner europe it is too expensive to buy from china now, and getting too expensive to buy from thailand. just the beginnig for the europeans .

[nelson bunker]

Flipping Heck!

Check out this chart and the right hand side column, the EUR is down against 31 currencies out of 32! It is only up against the croatian kuna...

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

[chiang mai]

Flipping Heck!

Check out this chart and the right hand side column, the EUR is down against 31 currencies out of 32! It is only up against the croatian kuna...

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-thb.en.html

Buy Kuna....?

[fletchsmile]

Yes EUR doesn't look good short term.

If you're going to spend large periods of time in Thailand it makes sense to build some THB assets and THB income streams here.

Nationality by nationality expats take their turns in struggling when their currency weakens vs THB if they don't. A few years back we had Americans recommending to stick with USD then Brits recommending GBP. A common mantra was stick your money in a US/GB bank account where it's "safe" and live off the interest, as it wasn't "safe" to bring money to Thailand. A couple of years later we had the Aussies saying how they were alright though as their currency was still strong and interest rates still good. Now it's the turn of the EUR to get hit hard again on their currency. Not far off will be many of our Swiss friends who arrive off the boat soon with their new found wealth and find out how cheap Thailand is for retirement. Fast forward a few years and guess what...

THB is at least part of the answer for people living here. Shame how so many people mis-advise others not to bring money into Thailand, or stay away from THB etc... THB interest rates aren't too bad relatively either...

Cheers

Fletch

Edited January 23, 2015 by fletchsmile

[Cletus]

“Europe is asking for it”: that’s the magic formula through which they’re taking our wealth and rights away. Making a second Greece of us. Austerity is killing us. Capitalism, more than ever, imposes itself as the only possible way to live in this world. Namely, the Neoliberal ideology, proclaiming itself as the only legitimate way to think, produce and exist: wild elevation of pensionable age, wages linear cut and progressive erotion of welfare state. I’m against all of this, the mainstream conformist thinking and the new world order. <deleted>*k them. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body whose aim is the destruction of the good old European system through wild privatizations and suppression of any residual welfare state.

[SheungWan]

pensions alone on a monthly basis doesn't give you the right to stay in Thailand.

I am guessing a lot of farangs are returning back to Europe specially from Pattaya. I called it a cleanup/correction.

If you are an older fellow and have a pension valued at 800,000 baht per year or 66,666 baht per month you can stay in Thailand as long as you like. As Naam mentioned above your information is not correct.

I'm afraid your information is not correct either. The 800,000 has nothing to do with per year or even per month. It is strictly a lump sum calculation. As for a non-O multiple entry visa eg from the UK for a person over the age of 65, there is no minimum income requirement amount required, only evidence of receipt of a State Pension.

[SheungWan]

Yes EUR doesn't look good short term.

If you're going to spend large periods of time in Thailand it makes sense to build some THB assets and THB income streams here.

Nationality by nationality expats take their turns in struggling when their currency weakens vs THB if they don't. A few years back we had Americans recommending to stick with USD then Brits recommending GBP. A common mantra was stick your money in a US/GB bank account where it's "safe" and live off the interest, as it wasn't "safe" to bring money to Thailand. A couple of years later we had the Aussies saying how they were alright though as their currency was still strong and interest rates still good. Now it's the turn of the EUR to get hit hard again on their currency. Not far off will be many of our Swiss friends who arrive off the boat soon with their new found wealth and find out how cheap Thailand is for retirement. Fast forward a few years and guess what...

THB is at least part of the answer for people living here. Shame how so many people mis-advise others not to bring money into Thailand, or stay away from THB etc... THB interest rates aren't too bad relatively either...

Cheers

Fletch

I don't think I would be betting on the Swiss franc going into reverse. Mind you, please bear in mind that at one point in the past I flipped from USD into CHF before the USD bottomed out and then took off and then some time afterwards when I needed to reverse had to do soon after the CHF had pegged itself to the EUR, so got whacked twice for my sins.

[manarak]

“Europe is asking for it”: that’s the magic formula through which they’re taking our wealth and rights away. Making a second Greece of us. Austerity is killing us. Capitalism, more than ever, imposes itself as the only possible way to live in this world. Namely, the Neoliberal ideology, proclaiming itself as the only legitimate way to think, produce and exist: wild elevation of pensionable age, wages linear cut and progressive erotion of welfare state. I’m against all of this, the mainstream conformist thinking and the new world order. <deleted>*k them. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body whose aim is the destruction of the good old European system through wild privatizations and suppression of any residual welfare state.

Yes and no... what we have in Europe is heavily regulated capitalism with liberal financial markets, and we get hit by the negatives of both sides, unfortunately we don't get much of the positives due to overregulation on one side and underregulation on the other. It's quite crazy.

Edited January 23, 2015 by manarak

[SheungWan]

“Europe is asking for it”: that’s the magic formula through which they’re taking our wealth and rights away. Making a second Greece of us. Austerity is killing us. Capitalism, more than ever, imposes itself as the only possible way to live in this world. Namely, the Neoliberal ideology, proclaiming itself as the only legitimate way to think, produce and exist: wild elevation of pensionable age, wages linear cut and progressive erotion of welfare state. I’m against all of this, the mainstream conformist thinking and the new world order. <deleted>*k them. EURO is not a currency, it’s a governing body whose aim is the destruction of the good old European system through wild privatizations and suppression of any residual welfare state.

Greece shot itself in the foot. Over and over again. Don't buy the poor old me sob stories peddled by anyone with a grudge to grind.

[Frank78]

As expected euro bounced a little 3 hours ago, mostly because of people taking their gains. This is a little pause during which some should take advantage to acquire USD. Before Monday.

[manarak]

As expected euro bounced a little 3 hours ago, mostly because of people taking their gains. This is a little pause during which some should take advantage to acquire USD. Before Monday.

Yes - my stop got hit at 1.1231, now waiting to see how high it bounces before shorting again.

[A man called horse]

Off load your Euro buy rubble

[Cletus]

Are the USA fine with a strong dollar? How long before they will weaken it?

[ScarpoFongness4U]

The US is making a bold move on the world stage

The US dollar in great and increasing demand

The US and China, are under the same global leadership, and they are recycling their massive US reserves

The Thai baht, is safe

The euro will trade at a discount to the US dollar/ this year

[Loptr]

I dont understand world economics, it makes no sense! The yanks owe so much money that they cannot fit it on the computer screen and just keep making more! As I understand it, from my history at school, that is what caused the 'great depression'?

Why do they continue to have such a control over world economics, when as I see it, China is really the leading country economically speaking? They are

all concerned about 7.4% growth rate in China, but that is about twice any other country at the moment.

Have a look here in Thailand, if they are not in economic s...t then I dont know what would constitute a country in recession?

Australia is also in trouble due to poor economic management after 7 years of mismanagement.

If I am off the makr, can someone try and explain it to me in layman's terms, as I have run out of hair to scratch.

obviously you know nothing about the United States. Have you ever been there?

actually mogo51 in my opinion does have a grasp of the US economic policy..he stated the US owes alot of money and has been printing money (in the billions)....this is true and since he attributed his knowledge of the Great Depression from what he learned in school...there are similarities of what is happening today that appear to be leading to another financial crash this year.

As to the "Great Depression" that is simply explained for causes as

deflation in asset and commodity prices,

dramatic drops in demand and credit,

disruption of trade,

ultimately resulting in widespread unemployment and poverty.

What part of mogo51" post led you to think he knows nothing of the US?

A massive national debt did not cause the Great Depression, which is what mogo51 implies. Further, while China's growth rate may be impressive, the US still has - by far - the largest GDP in the world.

US is also not currently experiencing deflation in asset prices (yet), dramatic drops in demand and credit, or disruption of trade. If you believe the US Government, GDP grew by nearly 5% last quarter and unemployment is dropping.

While I am also leery of the ridiculous levels of debt in the US, the fact that a majority of the world's trade is conducted in US dollars remains the saving grace for the US. If that were to change, the outlook would be much more pessimistic.

You were correct, but not by much, up until October 2014...

http://rt.com/business/194264-china-surpass-us-gdp/

If you want to attack the above source, here's another one, from the WSJ...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-america-is-now-no-2-2014-12-04

---

Now to the second point, about that 5% GDP growth... This was due to increased health care costs as a "benefit" from the president's signature legislation, the ACA... In other words, GDP grew on the backs of American people paying more, not less, for basic health care...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/12/about-that-5-gdp-growth-rate.php

---

Third point, not for long... No links this time, but just google (bilateral trade agreements excludes USD) and read any of the 85,000,000 links...

[Naam]

The US is making a bold move on the world stage

The US dollar in great and increasing demand

The US and China, are under the same global leadership, and they are recycling their massive US reserves

The Thai baht, is safe

The euro will trade at a discount to the US dollar/ this year

brilliant! you are a genius, aren't you? did you recycle any of your reserves recently?

[mahtin]

Off load your Euro buy rubble

Banksy's Sphinx perhaps?

[Jungle Jim]

Please keep dropping. Far fewer arriving here the better for the Thais. I think they wore out their welcome long ago.

[dontejo]

Unfortunately for the Euro..it's in a period of downturn...& worst case scenario ..is at the end!

It's not just one reason...

I think it's too simplistic to blame the "lazy " Greeks but does make for a good argument around the table over a couple beers .....if one knows nothing of world politics & economics.

I would argue that the problems to the Euro are self induced..and now will see mass exit of the currency to US dollars or maybe even the Thai baht...further diminishing it's conversion value.

Now that the EU has introduced "quantitative easing" there is no way out.Fracturing within the European community will escalate.

Germany will be unhappy with the quantitative easing EU policy.

Greece this weekend will probably elect a anti austerity government that will probably default on it's EU loans.

The Swiss this past week unpegged their currency to the Euro.

The European banks are in serious problems & when one fails...many will go down together.

Sanctions against Russia following the foreign policy of the US was probably the nail on the head..and in return Russia put in place their own sanctions.

Supporting the "Nazis" fascist government in Ukraine in a coup last year against it's trade partnership with Russia was/is a colossal mistake.

It's almost laughable...if it wasn't so devastating to the population.

The Greek situation will destroy the EU on the fiscal side.

The Swiss unpegging will destroy the EU on the currency side.

The sanctions against Russia will destroy the EU on the economic side.

The "quantitative easing" will destroy the EU on the monetary side with German opposition...& maybe abandoning the EU altogether.

The war in the Ukraine will destroy the EU on the energy side.

So yeah the Thai economy & Thai baht look quite stable to me compared to the Euro.

Don't forget the Dutch! They are very unhappy with the "quantitative easing" too!!

[paddyjenkins]

Are the USA fine with a strong dollar? How long before they will weaken it?

As soon as all the experts on this forum believe the USD is the best currency...