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Israeli center-left alliance looks to unseat Netanyahu


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Israeli center-left alliance looks to unseat Netanyahu
By ARON HELLER

JERUSALEM (AP) — When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved his unwieldy coalition and called new elections last month, he appeared almost certain to be returned once more to office. But a new center-left alliance has surged past his Likud party in the polls, turning the March 17 contest into a toss-up.

After joining forces with former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to create a joint grouping they call "The Zionist Camp," Labor Party leader Isaac Herzog is looking, to increasingly many Israelis, like a viable alternative to Netanyahu. He promises to reverse the country's slide toward international isolation and corrosive social inequality.

Much of the Israeli public has tired of Netanyahu's lengthy rule, but many still see him as the most suitable person to fill the top job. Herzog and Livni have chipped away at this sense of Netanyahu inevitability by embracing some nationalist terminology, drafting high-profile parliamentary candidates and fomenting a snowballing sense that they might actually win.

Part of the strategy is an agreement that they would split a four-year term, with Herzog stepping aside for Livni halfway through. Few in Israel expect this to happen — there is essentially no chance for any one party to win a full majority in parliament, and coalition partners would likely then demand their own turn at a "rotation." Yet the two-versus-one narrative, polls suggest, has bred momentum.

"It's either him, or us," their campaign slogan reads.

Polls consistently show the joint slate formed by Herzog's Labor and Livni's Hatnuah leading Netanyahu's Likud by several seats. Netanyahu may still enjoy an edge when it comes to cobbling together a coalition, thanks to nationalist and religious allies. But with several centrist wild cards in the mix, as well as individuals with personal grudges against the incumbent, matters seem more wide-open than before.

Even the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, traditionally among Netanyahu's most loyal partners, have said they would consider joining a government headed by Herzog.

Herzog and Livni recently added respected economist Manuel Trajtenberg as their prospective finance minister and Amos Yadlin, a retired general who now heads a prestigious think-tank, to be their future defense minister.

With the added firepower, Herzog has been closing the gap with Netanyahu over who the public sees as most suitable to be prime minister, said pollster Mina Zemach. "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts," she said of his merger with Livni. "The main result of the move is that it created hope."

A recent survey conducted by the Panels Politics Polling Institute found that only 38 percent of Israelis wanted Netanyahu as their next prime minister. The poll surveyed 508 people and had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

But even without a solid majority, Netanyahu still enjoys a "plurality" among the Israeli public, and the complexities of Israeli politics will complicate any effort to unseat him, said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at Jerusalem's Hebrew University. He said the Israeli political system is so fractured that the next government will likely not be the product of the vote itself but rather the political machinations that follow.

Herzog and Livni have gotten a boost by renaming their joint list "The Zionist Camp" in an attempt to reclaim a label that in recent years has been brandished by the right.

The argument has been that Netanyahu's Jewish settlement policies, in perpetuating Israel's rule over millions of Palestinians, are risking the country's Jewish majority. Considering that Zionism aimed at establishing a Jewish state, they argue, the true Zionist would seek a pullout from the West Bank, as Herzog and Livni do.

The move risks alienating Israel's Arab minority, but could draw critical votes from the Jewish center.

"The right for many years has been trying to steal the Israeli identity, the Zionist identity," Labor lawmaker Stav Shaffir told The Associated Press.

The opposition also blames Netanyahu for Israel's high cost of living and its ever-growing gap between rich and poor, as well as for deteriorating relations with the U.S., Israel's closest and most important ally.

Netanyahu, in turn, has branded the duo's slate as "anti-Zionist" and insisted only he could stand up to international pressure and cope with Israel's myriad of diplomatic and security challenges.

Kalman Gayer, who advised former prime ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon, said the union between Herzog and Livni was mutually beneficial. Herzog gets leadership credentials from Livni's past as a foreign minister; Livni, who previously headed the essentially defunct Kadima Party, gets the established political mechanism of the Labor Party, which led Israel for its first 29 years of existence.

"This combination gives each one of them something they didn't have on their own," he said.

Herzog, 54, has been a leading lawmaker for a decade and served as a low-level Cabinet minister in a series of governments. But he has often been dismissed as a soft-spoken apparatchik. Becoming prime minister would mark a culmination of a family dynasty that has enjoyed royalty status in the founding Labor Party. His late father, Chaim Herzog, was president of Israel from 1983-93 and was its ambassador to the United Nations. His uncle was legendary Foreign Minister Abba Eban.

"What is happening now is that you don't see Herzog and Livni as these hapless losers anymore," said Bradley Burston, a columnist for the liberal Haaretz daily. "The assumption was 'well, I don't like Netanyahu, but he is the only possibility,' and now you don't hear that as much."

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-- (c) Associated Press 2015-01-29

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What many are unaware of is the same type of NED (National Endowment for Democracy) socialist (export Democracy) agitators (courtesy of the US Gov) are in Israel now in an effort to unseat Bibi. While not exactly NED- the people who brought you the Arab Spring, HKG protestor drama, Red Shirt supporters, Syrian rebel agitation, Ukrainian rebellion, etc. etc.- these people are sent by Obama himself to agitate to influence Israeli elections. Some say this is in response to the Israeli PM and Obama not liking each other, and the PM accepting a direct offer to speak to the US Congress, bypassing the President. I say they were going to do this anyway as Obama is determined to create any machinery necessary to send Israel down the river (make peace with Hamas even if it imperils Israeli security). There is really no country in the world where it would be acceptable to send high level operatives to unseat an elected PM, or influence an elections. It is ghastly that the US would do this. Obama is doing this. (By now the list is long where official and unofficial US diplomats have agitated for revolution in other countries).

Those of you who dont like Israel; those of you who dont like Bibi- OK, but this is a very bad action/precedent. While it may be desirable for some to see the PM defeated, not like this; not via foreign meddling in internal politics.

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What many are unaware of is the same type of NED (National Endowment for Democracy) socialist (export Democracy) agitators (courtesy of the US Gov) are in Israel now in an effort to unseat Bibi. While not exactly NED- the people who brought you the Arab Spring, HKG protestor drama, Red Shirt supporters, Syrian rebel agitation, Ukrainian rebellion, etc. etc.- these people are sent by Obama himself to agitate to influence Israeli elections. Some say this is in response to the Israeli PM and Obama not liking each other, and the PM accepting a direct offer to speak to the US Congress, bypassing the President. I say they were going to do this anyway as Obama is determined to create any machinery necessary to send Israel down the river (make peace with Hamas even if it imperils Israeli security). There is really no country in the world where it would be acceptable to send high level operatives to unseat an elected PM, or influence an elections. It is ghastly that the US would do this. Obama is doing this. (By now the list is long where official and unofficial US diplomats have agitated for revolution in other countries).

Those of you who dont like Israel; those of you who dont like Bibi- OK, but this is a very bad action/precedent. While it may be desirable for some to see the PM defeated, not like this; not via foreign meddling in internal politics.

Barack Obama's political campaign people have worked outside the United States to include the successful campaign of British PM David Cameron and they are doing it again.

A given expert political campaign consultant often attaches to a certain candidate, but the consultant is not bound to any one person as if he'd signed up for a monkhood.

Politicians come and go but the political election campaign consultant has been with us for a long time already, has long since gone global, and will continue to be with us to the time the guy he first elected is retired and he'll be with us beyond that too.

Let's separate bad diplomacy and bad politics from politics as usual in election campaigns. Israel as with the UK are allies of the United States, the best two for that matter.

SPIN DOCTORS MADE IN USA

Big guns for hire

From Argentina to Estonia, Israel to Britain, Western-style political consultancy is a growth industry dominated by a few US superstars.

These developments are linked to the ideology of the “middle way” which unites “modern” politicians of left and right in unquestioning acceptance of the rules of the global market economy.

Sidney Blumenthal...analysed the emergence of political consultants as a “new power within the American political system”. Politicians were ephemeral, he warned, but consultants were permanent.

http://mondediplo.com/1999/08/02spin

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What many are unaware of is the same type of NED (National Endowment for Democracy) socialist (export Democracy) agitators (courtesy of the US Gov) are in Israel now in an effort to unseat Bibi. While not exactly NED- the people who brought you the Arab Spring, HKG protestor drama, Red Shirt supporters, Syrian rebel agitation, Ukrainian rebellion, etc. etc.- these people are sent by Obama himself to agitate to influence Israeli elections. Some say this is in response to the Israeli PM and Obama not liking each other, and the PM accepting a direct offer to speak to the US Congress, bypassing the President. I say they were going to do this anyway as Obama is determined to create any machinery necessary to send Israel down the river (make peace with Hamas even if it imperils Israeli security). There is really no country in the world where it would be acceptable to send high level operatives to unseat an elected PM, or influence an elections. It is ghastly that the US would do this. Obama is doing this. (By now the list is long where official and unofficial US diplomats have agitated for revolution in other countries).

Those of you who dont like Israel; those of you who dont like Bibi- OK, but this is a very bad action/precedent. While it may be desirable for some to see the PM defeated, not like this; not via foreign meddling in internal politics.

Barack Obama's political campaign people have worked outside the United States to include the successful campaign of British PM David Cameron and they are doing it again.

A given expert political campaign consultant often attaches to a certain candidate, but the consultant is not bound to any one person as if he'd signed up for a monkhood.

Politicians come and go but the political election campaign consultant has been with us for a long time already, has long since gone global, and will continue to be with us to the time the guy he first elected is retired and he'll be with us beyond that too.

Let's separate bad diplomacy and bad politics from politics as usual in election campaigns. Israel as with the UK are allies of the United States, the best two for that matter.

SPIN DOCTORS MADE IN USA

Big guns for hire

From Argentina to Estonia, Israel to Britain, Western-style political consultancy is a growth industry dominated by a few US superstars.

These developments are linked to the ideology of the “middle way” which unites “modern” politicians of left and right in unquestioning acceptance of the rules of the global market economy.

Sidney Blumenthal...analysed the emergence of political consultants as a “new power within the American political system”. Politicians were ephemeral, he warned, but consultants were permanent.

http://mondediplo.com/1999/08/02spin

Wow, what a thoughtful response. Thanks. I still see it as meddling when operatives influence foreign elections, but your point is noted.

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Let us hope for all concerned on both sides that a moderate centrist government is elected.

The extreme right wingers have achieved nothing.

Both a right wing or a center/left government would rely on a marginal majority and would be highly fragmented. With political realities what they are it would be extremely difficult for a center/left coalition to become a viable option. More so when it comes to actual government work and major decision taking - too many conflicting interests and points of view. An option hotly denied but still talked about is that of some unity government solution (there were such in the past) - it would take some backpedaling by all sides, but nothing too tasking for most involved. Can always claim its for the good of the country and done in-spite of the personal doubts etc.

As a general rule, center/left coalition government stand a much tougher situation with regard to possible peace initiatives. The reason being that while even their own home crowd is not 100% united about these issues, the government will have to face the public wrath of the opposition wholesale. On the other hand, a right wing led coalition government can rely on the opposition's support for such moves, and additionally partial support from its own home-crowd. The knee-jerk reaction would be that the right wing will not go for any such moves anyway - but then one remembers who signed them long lasting peace accords with Egypt. Granted, that was much less of a loaded issue, times were different, and obviously leadership was of another caliber.

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What many are unaware of is the same type of NED (National Endowment for Democracy) socialist (export Democracy) agitators (courtesy of the US Gov) are in Israel now in an effort to unseat Bibi. While not exactly NED- the people who brought you the Arab Spring, HKG protestor drama, Red Shirt supporters, Syrian rebel agitation, Ukrainian rebellion, etc. etc.- these people are sent by Obama himself to agitate to influence Israeli elections. Some say this is in response to the Israeli PM and Obama not liking each other, and the PM accepting a direct offer to speak to the US Congress, bypassing the President. I say they were going to do this anyway as Obama is determined to create any machinery necessary to send Israel down the river (make peace with Hamas even if it imperils Israeli security). There is really no country in the world where it would be acceptable to send high level operatives to unseat an elected PM, or influence an elections. It is ghastly that the US would do this. Obama is doing this. (By now the list is long where official and unofficial US diplomats have agitated for revolution in other countries).

Those of you who dont like Israel; those of you who dont like Bibi- OK, but this is a very bad action/precedent. While it may be desirable for some to see the PM defeated, not like this; not via foreign meddling in internal politics.

Hiring USA consultants is nothing new for both major parties in Israel. Their respective former employers usually correspond to the political divide in both countries. Same way donors do. Both parties have enough resources to manage this on their own - the notion that the opposition is getting managed by Obama's administration is out there at best. Or at the very least, about as credible as suggesting that Netanyahu & Co, are on the payroll of right-wing backers in the USA. Things are more nuanced than that.

The idea that an outsider consultant could have a mystical effect on the election results is quite a laugh considering just how fragmented the Israeli political scene is. Allow me to remain skeptic as to the level which USA campaign strategies would be effectively applicable in every corner of the globe.

Rather, taking on a high profile campaign consultant with a perceived close association with Obama is almost like handing one's political rivals a free shot. Obama is not a power brand in Israel, not even among those opposing Netanyahu. I would guess this would get a lot of mileage during the campaign - both from the Obama-association angle and the foreign-interference angle. Not much will be said about Netanyahu himself employing such consultants, or being the one who set up this trend (no, this is not a precedent).

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The OP is somewhat misleading in its optimistic approach.

For starters, the supposed lead that the new combined party gets in the polls is more along the lines of a seat or two in parliament. Not anything very decisive if previous polls and election campaigns are something to go by. It is a well known cliche in Israel that the Left wins at the polls and loses elections. A lot of the alleged optimism and new winds supposedly blowing are manufactured by the Israeli media, which in general leans to the Center/Left.

Having the largest party is almost meaningless if it lacks the potential partners to form a coalition. This is why most political analysts talk in terms of potential right wing or center/left blocs. When considered this way, it is a sad truth that the right wing got more options (in addition to getting more votes to begin with). In order for a center/left led coalition to form there are more fundamental rough spots and ideological chasms to be bridged. Parties may agree on policies vs. the Palestinians, but be opposed on civil rights issues, etc. The right wing led alliances are usually a more straight-forward affairs.

One of the main, often unmentioned maxims in Israeli politics is that Arab parties are not invited to take part in the coalition. That is quite expected when the right wing is in power, obviously - but nevertheless, not different when it comes to center/left led coalitions. The reason being that Arab parties are not Zionist, and are not seen as "natural" partners for such coalitions (which basically means, any coalition). The starting position of a center/left led coalition practically incorporates not officially including about 10-12 parliamentary seats. Most parties try to counter that by including Arab candidates thereby sort of "laundering" Arab support. This reluctance is not so much a reflection of party leaders personal opinion, but a realpolitik consideration with an eye to garnering overall voter support. Things worked out so far, but these elections, following a change in rules (ironically enough, pushed through by the right wing parties) the Arab politicians actually managed to bridge their differences (at least for now) and will run as a united party - something which may considerably raise their bargaining power. Interesting times.

As for the article painting Herzog as a promise - well, the main thing he was known to prior to party leadership ascent was keeping mum (or taking the Fifth for those from the USA) during a lengthy police investigation regarding irregularities concerning to NGOs and donations during Barak's (former Israeli PM, no relation) election campaign.

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@ arjundadawn

As usual, agree to disagree.

In as much as this is a topic dealing with the upcoming Israeli election, I hardly see the alleged Obama-MB connection as central, though - even if I was buying into it. If Obama wants to ensure Netanyahu's victory, all he needs to do is endorse (publicly or otherwise) the opposition. Whether this notion can be effectively incorporated into the above view, is not for me to say.

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I said nothing about Israelis. My comment was about anti-Israelis and the "likes" on the post that I was responding to pretty much prove my point. wink.png

But how can you be so certain they are anti-Israel? What if they are only anti-Netanyahu and his policies?

It is the usual trick that governments around the world have developed over the past decade or so. If you oppose something government imposed, you are labelled a terrorist. If you oppose the actions of the Israeli government in particular, you are labelled a Jew hater, an anti-semite, basically anything negative that could discredit you in our increasingly superficial world.

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Hiring USA consultants is nothing new for both major parties in Israel.

One of the first things that Menachem Begin did after being elected in 1977 was to bring over Milton Friedman as a financial advisor. This began several trends such as the slow decline of Israeli society into economically divided social classes (inequality) and the alignment of the Likud party with the failed Neo-Conservative agenda in the US. Talk to some Israelis who do not inhabit the IT world with its preponderance of puerile libertarianism, and you will find many an Israeli who speak of the economic inequality as a far greater existentialist threat than Iran or the Palestinians. This new alignment seems to at least minimally recognize this currently intransigent problem

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Open Jihad Declared in Egypt Following State Dept. Meeting with Muslim Brotherhood-Aligned Leaders


BY: Adam Kredo

January 30, 2015 5:00 am


The Muslim Brotherhood called for “a long, uncompromising jihad” in Egypt just days after a delegation of the Islamist group’s key leaders and allies met with the State Department, according to an official statement released this week.


Just days after a delegation that included two top Brotherhood leaders was hosted at the State Department, the organization released an official statement calling on its supporters to “prepare” for jihad, according to an independent translation of the statement first posted on Tuesday.


The State Department meeting was attended by a deputy assistant secretary for democracy, human rights, and labor and other State Department officials.


The Muslim Brotherhood statement also was issued just two days before a major terror attack Thursday in Egypt’s lawless Sinai region that killed at least 25.




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Cruz Calls for Investigation Into State Dept.-Funded Nonprofit



BY: Alana Goodman

January 29, 2015 8:41 pm


Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R., Texas) office called for an investigation on Thursday into the State Department’s funding of a nonprofit group that is assisting a campaign aimed at defeating Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.


Nick Muzin, deputy chief of staff for Cruz, said the senator was “very disturbed by the reports that the State Department has funded an organization that’s playing a direct role in trying to defeat Benjamin Netanyahu.”


The OneVoice Movement, a U.S.-based nonprofit group that is partnering with the V15 effort to oust Netanyahu in Israel’s March elections, received two grants from the State Department in the past year, the Washington Free Beacon reported on Tuesday.





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I'm one of those people, I don't have a problem with Israel as long as it withdraws from all the west bank, not just some of it and a slightly different aphartheid system to the one they have now. I figure a different israeli government can't possibly be worse than the one they have now, but I'm not optimistic that they will go far enough to get out of the west bank. I'm not someone who thinks palestinian refugess living in neighboring countries should return-there are enough palestinians in the WB and gaza, too many for isreal to keep settlers in the west bank. Some area's of israel proper are 80% arab, and their moving jews into the west bank-israel's oppresive, exclusive policies and western supports for it is boosting ISIS.

I said nothing about Israelis. My comment was about anti-Israelis and the "likes" on the post that I was responding to pretty much prove my point. wink.png

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Hiring USA consultants is nothing new for both major parties in Israel.

One of the first things that Menachem Begin did after being elected in 1977 was to bring over Milton Friedman as a financial advisor. This began several trends such as the slow decline of Israeli society into economically divided social classes (inequality) and the alignment of the Likud party with the failed Neo-Conservative agenda in the US. Talk to some Israelis who do not inhabit the IT world with its preponderance of puerile libertarianism, and you will find many an Israeli who speak of the economic inequality as a far greater existentialist threat than Iran or the Palestinians. This new alignment seems to at least minimally recognize this currently intransigent problem

To a degree, this is correct. The economy and its effects on everyday life of ordinary people make for some of the key issues in this elections. The thing is that such considerations are almost always trumped by worries to do with national security (whether real or hyped). There is a slow process evident of people not buying into the national security arguments as much as in the past, but not sure how solid that will be come elections day.

This focus on the economy is one reason which makes stories concerning political corruption (Lieberman's party) and personal conduct (Netanyahu's wife) more poignant at this time:

Israel’s Avigdor Lieberman faces poll meltdown after party corruption probeWhen Israel’s hawkish rightwing foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, addressed New York’s Russian-Jewish community last April, he focused on the political success of Russian immigrants like him in Israel.

“Only in Israel,” Lieberman ventured, “can a young Russian immigrant arrive and in 20 years become foreign minister. One day we will have a Russian-speaking minister of defence, a Russian-speaking president, and soon, we may have a Russian-speaking prime minister.” Few doubted that he meant himself.

Today, however, his political fortunes appear to be in sharp decline after his party, Yisrael Beiteinu, became embroiled in a far-reaching corruption investigation. The former nightclub bouncer from Moldova has also fallen out with his erstwhile ally, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, with whose Likud party he briefly merged Yisrael Beiteinu at the last elections. Running on a joint list in 2013, the two parties won 31 seats. These days polls suggest Lieberman’s party would be lucky to win more than a handful.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/03/israel-avigdor-lieberman-poll-meltdown-corruption-probe

Attorney general mulls probe into Sara Netanyahu's bottle deposit scandal

State Comptroller Joseph Shapira announced on Thursday that he is turning over the Netanyahu family bottle deposit scandal to Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein, who will decide whether or not to open a formal investigation into the matter.

It emerged on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife, Sara Netanyahu, kept thousands of shekels from deposits on empty bottles that were returned, on her orders, to supermarkets in Jerusalem over the course of several years even though the bottle deposits were state property.

Shapira's office noted that the scandal must be turned over to the attorney general because Sara Netanyahu is not an official figure subject to investigation by the state comptroller, and as a private citizen she falls under the jurisdiction of the attorney general.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.639717

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I'm one of those people, I don't have a problem with Israel as long as it withdraws from all the west bank, not just some of it and a slightly different aphartheid system to the one they have now. I figure a different israeli government can't possibly be worse than the one they have now, but I'm not optimistic that they will go far enough to get out of the west bank. I'm not someone who thinks palestinian refugess living in neighboring countries should return-there are enough palestinians in the WB and gaza, too many for isreal to keep settlers in the west bank. Some area's of israel proper are 80% arab, and their moving jews into the west bank-israel's oppresive, exclusive policies and western supports for it is boosting ISIS.

I said nothing about Israelis. My comment was about anti-Israelis and the "likes" on the post that I was responding to pretty much prove my point. wink.png

I figure a different Israeli government can't possibly be worse than the one they have now, but I'm not optimistic that they will go far enough to get out of the west bank.

You figure wrong.

The current government was, to a degree, tempered by the presence of centrist parties (even if they were more fig leaves than actual checks and balances). As things stand, the right wing bloc would probably able to form a coalition while relying once more on the participation of Jewish Orthodox parties, which generally speaking, are closer to right wing views when it comes to the Palestinians. There would not be even a slowing down of right wing policies.

An Israeli center/left coalition always faces a harder predicament when considering issues pertaining to the Palestinians, as its public support being considerably lower than a right wing coalition attempting the same (center/left wing voters will support any side taking such efforts, while right wing voters will only support a right wing coalition doing so, and even then, partially). So it is true hoping for a major diplomatic breakthrough is not very realistic either way. And that's without considering how things stand on the Palestinian side.

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