Aussie $ falls again. Baht falls again.

[Si Thea01]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

[moojar]

I have been here since 2006 and the worst i got was 26.50.

The best 33.

Well, if you wandered in to Super Rich today you'd be able to say "... and the worst I got was 25.30."

[moojar]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

First time I went to Thailand was in 1992, and I was getting 17 or 18 baht to the dollar. Lowest since 1990 was 16. There are charts on websites such as ozforex.com.au where you can look at the historical values.

I think the 10 year average is around 25, so we're close. I reckon it will go below that though if the baht stays strong - economists are saying we are likely headed below US 70c in the first half of the year.

Edited January 31, 2015 by moojar

[carlyai]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

[rodroy]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

CRAP!

How about Russia and falling oil prices!

How much exposure do Euro banks have to the collapse of the Ruble due to lower oil revenues?

Currencies supported by resource exports have fallen precipitously!

[Si Thea01]

Basically, the bum has fallen out of world commodity prices. Our coal and iron ore, LPG revenue has plummeted. Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

Now with the US economy said to be recovering, along with the crisis in Europe we are in a really bad place.

The 'Lucky Country' is just about to run out of luck. Much speculation about the Reserve Banks Interest Rate meeting next week. if they cut it, then watch the AUD fall!

This is an edited extract of a speech BCA (Business Council Of Australia) Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott delivered at the Australian Unity Great Australia Day Breakfast. (26JAN15)

....consider our current national trajectory, evidenced by data and events in the last three months of 2014.

The terms of trade experienced their biggest fall in 50 years.

Write-downs to economic forecasts in the mid-year budget update wiped billions of dollars off the budget bottom line.

The deficit has blown out to 40 billion dollars, some 10 billion dollars more than originally forecast.

Commonwealth net debt has risen to 245 billion dollars this year.

Interest repayments this year on that debt are 11 billion dollars.

In October, the unemployment rate hit 6.3 per cent, the highest rate recorded in 12 years.

It fell back to 6.1 per cent in December, but remember at the height of the Global Financial Crisis it only reached 5.9 per cent for a short period of time.

Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.

Our competitiveness continues to slip and our multifactor productivity is stagnant, making the task of job creation even harder.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, the budget is confronting a pincer movement from increasing demand for services and from an ageing population.

At the same time as the capacity of the economy to pay is being weakened.

The ageing of our population alone could drive a fiscal gap of 4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by 2060 in todays terms thats about 65 billion dollars.

A reversion of the terms of trade to their long-run, pre-boom levels could alone increase the deficit by around another 40 billion dollars.

Another global financial crisis, which saw a 70 billion dollar budget deterioration, would turn all of this into a perfect storm.

At the same time:

the global economy is still sluggish

there is still enormous global economic volatility

and our geopolitical environment is very fragile on so many fronts.

If all this doesnt constitute a burning platform, Im not sure what does.

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australians Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

Very good read but give me Australia any day over 3 rd world thailand just a good place to r??t thai moles

Ah, a fine upstanding Aussie. Tell me, is it the marsupial mole or the skin type, or do you mean moll? Do you know the difference, can't spell or just a play on words? It's a shame that we have to put up with people who think with what is between their legs and post accordingly. Do you think I t is clever to write in such a degrading manner? To do so only shows that you are a misogynist, which is about the politest way one could describe you.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Si Thea01

[ToddinChonburi]

Closed at 25.43 baht

[sir charles IV]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

[carlyai]

I bought a toyota exior about 19 years ago for near 900000 baht and i am preety sure i got about 14 baht to the dollar. Thats how i remember.

Most people might say 'stupid', but when you need to buy a car - you buy it.

[12DrinkMore]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

it's not so much our love for baht but the action of the Bank of Thailand. They spent a huge amount of their foreign currency reserves to prop up the currency. One would think they should've let it drop to become more competitive but they know better I guess.

Where have you pulled that nonsense from? Under the bar stool?

Just go and check out the data published by the BoT.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalReserves.aspx

And please indicate over which period the BoT has been spending significant amounts of foreign currency reserves.

As an example, from 22.11.2013 to 23.01.2015 the forex reserves calculated in USD went from 160 billion to 147 billion, and calculated in THB from 5.1 trillion to 4.7 trillion.

A drop of 8% in both USD and THB terms, which can easily be accounted for by the drop in Western currencies.

But don't allow facts to obscure opinions. That would be boring.

[Donnie Brasco]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

"When China awakens, the world will tremble."

Napoleon Bonaparte

Most of us on this board conduct our day-to-day existences on this fault line.

We are in "Indochine".

[richusa]

Well just hope it keeps the wan£rs away.

[Donnie Brasco]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

Congratulations Sir Charles I've

(Round UP

It's Toy Cowchaw

You'll make a lovely addition to the family.

[stoli]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

Countries can, and do, manipulate their own currencies from time to time. This can be beneficial for a short time, but can backfire done long time, just like what happened recently with the Swiss Franc. Why would they do this? Answer: Countries need to balance out their export-import ratios. You are now seeing many countries currency becoming less valuable around the world, which makes their export products cheaper in foreign countries. Exporting opens additional markets for a country to move its goods. You are out of balance if you just import other countries goods, and not exporting your own. You are now seeing the U.S. dollar start to retreat from its recent highs here in Thailand. If all of the other countries of the world products become cheaper overseas, and the U.S. dollar getting stronger, the exporters in the U.S. are going to go screaming to their representatives that their products are being priced out of the world market, and point out that even the U.S. is importing more foreign goods. If the U.S. dollar weakens against other currencies, then the exports will again be priced competitively around the world. It is just simple economic policies.

Living here we like it when we get more baht for our U.S. dollar, but remember that the price of American products will rise to compensate, and American goods will cost you more here.

[moojar]

<snip>

Australia's debt is increasing by over $1 Billion per month and the government is being blocked in the senate from reigning in the debt. Just last month another 200,000 people applied for the Disability Support Pension for Christ's sake. There is already almost 1 million Australians of working age on the disability support pension. Along with an ageing population, a Taxation system that needed a serious and complete overhaul more than 20 years ago, Healthcare Cost blowout - and on, and on..

<snip>

Surprisingly, very few commentators, with the exception of The Australian’s Paul Kelly, called these changes out last year.

I agree with most of what you say, but relying on Rupert Murdoch's Australian for your political news is a bit like relying on Pravda - it's all slanted one way.

The borrowing has actually accelerated since the adults have been in charge. Have a read of this article for a bit of balance: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/10/27/coalition-on-track-to-double-labor%E2%80%99s-debt-and-deficit/

Some of the budget is blocked because it was all wrong - punish the poor and leave the rich alone. I've heard our current government referred to as a "cable TV government" - only governing for their own subscribers (voters). But the polls are not being very kind to them.

We have economic problems and we need a leader to restructure the economy. But I don't see one on either side.

[richusa]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

The Doury has fast faded.....WHAT WORLD ARE YOU LIVING IN?

Calculate her 20 year net worth WITHOUT YOU...... and give them 100k.

Unbelievable.....

[stat088]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

Sell your Title.

[SheungWan]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

Right. The only issue facing the Euro is China. You might want to glance at a newspaper or watch some TV news from time to time.

First of all I didn't say that the only issue facing the Euro was China and secondly you might want to read the thread any time at all to see what was the preceding question. The question was what was the correlation between EUR and AUD ie is there any connection? One substantive connection is China, first in the case of the AUS re the import of raw materials and secondly re the EUR re trade between the EU and China. Both the EU and Australia affected by some slowdown in China. AUD probably more than EUR but the connection is there all the same.

[SheungWan]

Nooooooooooooooo

I'm getting married next month. Promised 500k doury 4-5 months ago. $ way near 30tbh. Can I negotiate it with her parents? Or douries are exchange rate independent? Well bloody they should be. I'm too scared to calculate it based on today's exchange. Could someone give me the figure please?

Sell your Title.

The question is whether you are Charles IV of France or Charles IV of Spain in either case the price of the Aussie Dollar pretty much irrelevant.

[elgordo38]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

In Canada there are rumors the Canuck buck will drop to 70 cents to the US dollar why I do not know. Oil is part of the equation but then the Americans are sitting on a lot of shale oil to.

[Lukecan]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

In Canada there are rumors the Canuck buck will drop to 70 cents to the US dollar why I do not know. Oil is part of the equation but then the Americans are sitting on a lot of shale oil to.

But they dont depend on it.

[starky]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

[BookMan]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

It touched 21 baht to the AUD in 2008

[stat088]

If i remember correctly the aussie dollar went down to 14 baht to the dollar.

Thats when Cavalit (sorry for the spelling) said 'we will never never never devalue the baht' and then he did.

I dont think the situation is the same as back then, so i recon around 22 would seem about right

When did it go down to this rate? Are you relying on your memory or facts? I have been sending money to Thailand since 2004 and the lowest rate I ever received was 21 baht to the A$ and this was, to the best of my recollection, in the latter half of 2008, October/November I think. It would have had to be prior to 2004, if ever. I think we might see it around B22 but here's hoping not. Just have to wait and see and ride it out.

sorry mate but late 90's early millenium it was well under that a lot of guys have been here long before 2004

It touched 21 baht to the AUD in 2008

Yes. 27 October 2008 it was 20.88

[sojourner007]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

it's not so much our love for baht but the action of the Bank of Thailand. They spent a huge amount of their foreign currency reserves to prop up the currency. One would think they should've let it drop to become more competitive but they know better I guess.

Where have you pulled that nonsense from? Under the bar stool?

Just go and check out the data published by the BoT.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalReserves.aspx

And please indicate over which period the BoT has been spending significant amounts of foreign currency reserves.

As an example, from 22.11.2013 to 23.01.2015 the forex reserves calculated in USD went from 160 billion to 147 billion, and calculated in THB from 5.1 trillion to 4.7 trillion.

A drop of 8% in both USD and THB terms, which can easily be accounted for by the drop in Western currencies.

BoT Reserves.jpg

But don't allow facts to obscure opinions. That would be boring.

Quoting from the article in Barrons.com "Are Asia’s Currencies Too Strong?"

of 29/1/15 by DBS chief economist, David Carbon (not sure you can freely access it online): "Malaysia and Thailand have also seen significant drops in foreign reserves. In all cases, falling reserves appears to owe to central bank efforts over the past six months to cling to a rising dollar more than a basket policy suggests appropriate, informal or otherwise."

But perhaps your information sources are better than those of a chief economist of a major Asian bank, who must be just writing 'nonsense' in a respectable US publication

[aparasher]

Might be good for AU but certainly not good for Thai exports and expats or just tourists out of AU

Please don't hold your breath on rise of AUD to make some money any time soon. Next big market for Australian resources (iron ore) after China will be Africa and Africa is not expected to calm down any time soon. Similarly coal will become a dirty word in most continents resulting in Africa being the only place for it's sale and rates will not be good. Another key resource in future may be Uranium, but Australia will need to be careful selling it.

We do have lots of baron land. So we could go to old plan of being world's dirty pit...LOL...I know this plan was on table some years ago....

[phrisco17]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

At the rate which "o" is spending on happiness they won't be able to buy enough Baht on the currency market to maintain a strong Baht much longer. Every time the Baht touches 33 to the $ the Thai Fed steps in and pushes the Baht down. The Baht is again on an upward spiral towards 33, currently at 32.77 to the Buck.

[phrisco17]

Amazing Thailand, the baht stays put.

yeah it more than amazing Thailand. But why does it always happen this way?The world must love the Thai baht.

At the rate which "o" is spending on happiness they won't be able to buy enough Baht on the currency market to maintain a strong Baht much longer. Every time the Baht touches 33 to the $ the Thai Fed steps in and pushes the Baht down. The Baht is again on an upward spiral towards 33, currently at 32.77 to the Buck.

[Doc46]

Hate to be the messenger of bad news but is it only going to get worse. Fair value is farrrrr below where it is now. Will probably bottom out at 15 baht to the AUD.

Would you care to share your sources which stipulate fair value?

i suspect his sources are related to this:

Yea he must have a pair of them,,,He knows something nobody else knows,He better be careful he might break them on a rough ride

[shaurene]

So the Euro and AUD are falling apart at the same time, whats the correlation for this ?

China.

Right. The only issue facing the Euro is China. You might want to glance at a newspaper or watch some TV news from time to time.

The problem with the Euro is the Europe recession in many of the Euro country's like Greece, Italy, France, Portugal and the falsely high US$.