Thai govt 'sure of 4 percent GDP growth this year'

[webfact]

ECONOMIC
Govt 'sure of 4% GDP growth this year'
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment, Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula said.

"This year will definitely see more improvement," he said in an interview on Nation TV's Kom Chad Luek programme late on Tuesday. "Last year's growth was 0.8 per cent. This year's is expected to reach 4 per cent. But some groups of people may not perform satisfactorily because of their accumulated debts. It's a prolonged problem, which takes time to solve."

This year, private investment will begin to take off, while the government has been accelerating implementation of its infrastructure projects, including roads and double-track railways, to generate employment, he said.

In response to concerns over external and internal factors, particularly last weekend's explosions in central Bangkok, Pridiyathorn expressed confidence that the military's ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) could handle such situations. The government may need to explain to investors that the bombing was not severe, while warning everyone not to think negatively.

Though the World Bank has expressed concern over the Thai economy, he stressed that the country's fiscal position and foreign reserves were in good shape.

"We concede that in the first half of last year, Thai economic growth was negative but improvement began in the second half. Since the [current military] government took office, thousands of factories have been opened after we solved the licence-approval problem. More factories mean more employment, and this reflects more investment and improvement in economic figures," Pridiyathorn said.

He also conceded that household debt had continued rising, as Thais have been cautious with their spending, particularly through credit cards. He has asked commercial banks to handle the situation on expectations of seeing an improvement by the third quarter of this year.

Responding to concerns that the junta was trying to consolidate its political power through the proposed "digital economy" laws, Pridiyathorn said this was a misunderstanding. He said he welcomed the opposition to these bills as the government would take the criticisms into consideration and make adjustments. There are two sets of bills, one regarding the proposed digital economy and the other seven on tightening cyber-security.

He also insisted that the junta would not seize control of media frequencies.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Govt-sure-of-4-GDP-growth-this-year-30253430.html


-- The Nation 2015-02-05

[NongKhaiKid]

' Sure, definitely ' ?

How can anyone stick their neck out like this in the current situation with the global economy, oil prices and currencies all over the place ?

What's wrong with reasoned, careful comments mixing some hope and caution ?

As the ad says " Thais see the world differently " but maybe more accurately it should be '... their own little world... '.

Edited February 4, 2015 by NongKhaiKid

[dbrenn]

Coming off such a low base, anything is possible.

[Thai at Heart]

How long have you worked here?

2 week!

Sure ?

Sure?

[JohnThailandJohn]

' Sure, definitely ' ?

How can anyone stick their neck out like this in the current situation with the global economy, oil prices and currencies all over the place ?

What's wrong with reasoned, careful comments mixing some hope and caution ?

As the ad says " Thais see the world differently " but maybe more accurately it should be '... their own little world... '.

I didn't see anywhere in the article anyone stated they were "sure" 4% GDP growth. The headline appears to state something not remotely said. The closest things said was, " "This year will definitely see more improvement" ... if we want to nitpick then certainly there could be some huge event happen but it really is very unlikely that things will not improve over last year.

[smutcakes]

Johnthailand.

Other than where it quotes him in para 2.

[shirtless]

If the baht stays strong i doubt they will see a great deal of growth as the world economy looks sick

[konying]

And if it does not, can still pretend it did and if anyone questions it, just call them in for attitude adjustment.

[JohnThailandJohn]

I didn't see anywhere in the article anyone stated they were "sure" 4% GDP growth. The headline appears to state something not remotely said. The closest things said was, " "This year will definitely see more improvement" ... if we want to nitpick then certainly there could be some huge event happen but it really is very unlikely that things will not improve over last year.

Johnthailand.

Other than where it quotes him in para 2.

No matter how many times I read "This year's is expected to reach 4 per cent." it doesn't equate to "Govt 'sure of 4% GDP growth this year'" as the headline reads. As I stated, the only thing remotely close is "This year will definitely see more improvement" ... and given the past year and improvements already happening, not much of a prediction.

Edited February 5, 2015 by JohnThailandJohn

[wabothai]

Yes 4% more from Trade with Europe counts for cheap Euro. Yes and garanteed. Wow !!!

[Ozziepat]

It is a mistake to equate a "strong" baht with a strong economy. The former can be locally manipulated (and is) to maintain the exchange rate within certain limits. The latter is a complex interrelated set of conditions, impacted by global events and forces, that might or might not be amenable to any particular degree of change. Of course, if you utilize GDP as a valid measure of the economy (It isn't.), and you control the definition of GDP, the data going in and the entity that does the calculating and reporting, then yeah, you can confidently project just about anything. China has been doing this for decades.

Edited February 5, 2015 by Ozziepat

[clockman]

Another white lie!

[rickirs]

"The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment"

The Junta can expect all it wants but reality says otherwise.

- Negative inflation in January 2015 (Finance Minister Sommai Phasi)

- Domestic consumption and private investment in Thailand is still slow

- The country’s export growth in 2015 will be only 1.5%

- The country’s economic growth projections for 2015 will be just 3.9%

- The country has entered a "new normal" period that could see annual growth of only 3%

- The Government has made no "ground-breaking" investment projects (Government borrows 80% from Chinese to fund the Dual Rail System)

- Prices for rubber, rice, chicken, and eggs down

- Tourism down

- Chinese GDP rate to shrink 10%

Thailand will be fortunate to see 2.5% GDP growth for 2015.

[rickirs]

"The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment"

The Junta can expect all it wants but reality says otherwise.

- Negative inflation in January 2015 (Finance Minister Sommai Phasi)

- Domestic consumption and private investment in Thailand is still slow

- The country’s export growth in 2015 will be only 1.5%

- The country’s economic growth projections for 2015 will be just 3.9%

- The country has entered a "new normal" period that could see annual growth of only 3%

- The Government has made no "ground-breaking" investment projects (Government borrows 80% from Chinese to fund the Dual Rail System)

- Prices for rubber, rice, chicken and eggs down

- Tourism down

- Chinese GDP rate to shrink 10%

Thailand will be fortunate to see 2.5% GDP growth for 2015.

[cloudhopper]

Governments can deficit spend the GDP to any level they like.

[Suffinator]

I was sure this morning I wanted to fart ... unfortunately I was wrong and soiled myself.

[JohnThailandJohn]

"The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment"

The Junta can expect all it wants but reality says otherwise.

- Negative inflation in January 2015 (Finance Minister Sommai Phasi)[/size]

- Domestic consumption and private investment in Thailand is still slow [/size]

- The countrys export growth in 2015 will be only 1.5% [/size]

- The countrys economic growth projections for 2015 will be just 3.9% [/size]

- The country has entered a "new normal" period that could see annual growth of only 3% [/size]

- The Government has made no "ground-breaking" investment projects (Government borrows 80% from Chinese to fund the Dual Rail System)[/size]

- Prices for rubber, rice, chicken, and eggs down

- Tourism down

- Chinese GDP rate to shrink 10%

Thailand will be fortunate to see 2.5% GDP growth for 2015. [/size]

Global experts were estimating 3.5% for 2015 and that was back in October when things were a bit more gloomy. 4% seems completely reasonable expectation given the past years. Edited February 5, 2015 by JohnThailandJohn

[Yme]

Total <deleted> IMO.

More like the 1.8 - 2.2% that these guys forecast http://www.establishmentpost.com/thai-economy-loses-12-bill-in-2014-whats-ahead-for-2015/ -- which is in line with the 2% the head of Saha Group was quoted as forecasting in the Bangkok paper that we are not allowed to link to. In any event the other link says it all.

They've also just published unofficial 2014 GDP figures http://www.establishmentpost.com/thailand-2014-gdp-falls-to-0-7-as-q4-2014-sees-economic-slump-continue/ .

They list most of the official and unofficial figures and I can't see the 2.3% growth they say would have been required to reach even 0.7% GDP for last year.