Prayut learns realities of dealing with major powers

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Prayut learns realities of dealing with major powers
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- NOW PRIME Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha understands that the coup in which he seized power from an elected government last May comes with a price.

The military government faces pressure from East and West to restore democracy to the Kingdom quickly.

Washington has continually urged the junta to return power to the people through a democratic system. US officials at all levels, from the president to the charge d'affaires at the embassy to Bangkok, have consistently called for the restoration of democracy. Relations with the United States and military cooperation would not return to normal until Thailand is once again governed by an elected civilian government.

Cobra Gold, the annual military war games, was scaled down this year as the US sent fewer troops to join the drill and the theme was refocused on humanitarian assistance and disaster response capabilities.

The junta wanted the war games to be a purely military exercise but the US has linked it with political development in Thailand. Many things could remain the same, as Patrick Murphy, charge d'affaires at the US Embassy in Bangkok said at the opening of Cobra Gold on Monday, but "still, we can't deny that this period is a challenging one for us all, and has necessitated a modified Cobra Gold exercise this year as Thailand manages its return to elected, civilian-led government."

Thai leaders anticipated the Americans would say this for a while and then phase it out when Thailand offered strategic interest to Washington, or leaned on other major powers in the region.

Initially, the junta expected that one US major ally in the Far Eastern region, Japan, would be more relaxed towards the military government by turning a blind eye on the military coup and focusing only on economic cooperation for mutual benefit.

Of course, Japan's main interest in relations with Thailand is on economic matters, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cares also about political and security matters as Tokyo under his leadership seeks a more political role in the international arena.

During his three-day visit to Japan, coup leader Prayut worked to explain Thailand's domestic political situation; and furthermore, he was forced to show a strong commitment to an early restoration of democracy.

The next election, something Prayut is reluctant to speak on at home, needed to be mentioned during several meetings with Japanese officials, including Abe. The poll could be held by the end of this year or early next year.

Prayut's visit to Japan is likely to be fruitful since officials in Tokyo know how to play along.

Prayut received two documents signed on railway development and promoting of business in Thailand, although the paper simply showed just "intention", not action. The junta wanted Japan to help develop a rail route, high speed if possible, to link Bangkok with western, northern and eastern provinces. It also wanted to fulfil connectivity along the East West Economic Corridor and the pouring of money into the Dawei project in Myanmar.

Prayut received a commitment, in the Japanese style of diplomacy. Tokyo said yes, these projects are very important — but let's study and look at their prospects for the long run. That simply means projects would not materialise during Prayut's time.

China is the only single comfortable nation Prayut can deal with. Unlike the Americans and the Japanese, Chinese leaders refrained from comments on Thai politics. China has a very clear agenda to have countries in Southeast Asia as its main supporters — to counter-balance Japan and US pivot policy. China's new strategy to create a Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century is compatible to Asean and Thailand's connectivity plans.

However, the junta leader should know there are no more "free lunches" in international relations. Prayut's rail project, signed in a Memorandum of Understanding with China in December, needed to go through a real Chinese style business arrangement.

Beijing shocked the Thais in the first round of negotiations with a proposal that Thailand borrow capital at a high interest rate between 2-4 per cent annually, from the Chinese Import-Export Bank, while China would build and operate the project.

Negotiation with China is tough. If Prayut wants something to demonstrate the value of his coup, perhaps he needs to pay what, to him, would be the most expensive price.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Prayut-learns-realities-of-dealing-with-major-powe-30253801.html


-- The Nation 2015-02-11

[chooka]

A bit slow at grasping reality. What happened to all that rubbish propaganda they were trying to brainwash people with, the whole world understands and supports the coup.

[WhamBam]

Sometimes the dream is not the same as reality. Real life can be more of a nightmare than dreams.

[yellowboat]

The next election, something Prayut is reluctant to speak on at home, needed to be mentioned during several meetings with Japanese officials, including Abe. The poll could be held by the end of this year or early next year.

The good general is more forthcoming with the Japanese than with his own people. He is an elitist.

[bkkfaranguy]

Where do these reporters get there information, as far as China goes Thailand is the only country wanting anything to do with them. Everyone else is at odds with China as they are trying to claim the whole South China Sea and all the Islands as there own. China's main agenda is to rule and dominate all of SE Asia!

[NongKhaiKid]

  On 2/10/2015 at 11:37 PM, chooka said:

A bit slow at grasping reality. What happened to all that rubbish propaganda they were trying to brainwash people with, the whole world understands and supports the coup.

Exactly but that was the gospel according to Thailand and never endorsed by the countries that LoS had no shame in representing.

[arthurboy]

The writer has overlooked Prayut's 'the military will return' should any elected government fail to 'solve' the country's problems.

So is the junta leader's declaration to Abe of a return to democracy by the end of this or early next year sincere or just PR guff?

It's guff.

[NongKhaiKid]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:00 AM, yellowboat said:

The next election, something Prayut is reluctant to speak on at home, needed to be mentioned during several meetings with Japanese officials, including Abe. The poll could be held by the end of this year or early next year.

The good general is more forthcoming with the Japanese than with his own people. He is an elitist.

Simply said for Japanese consumption with fingers crossed behind the back so it's not a genuine statement and when the time comes it's easy to claim the social conditions here are not ' right ' for an election.

[NeverSure]

So, is it the general who might be waking up, or is it The Nation?

Nonetheless, it is the better of many articles I've seen from The Nation since the coup.

[NongKhaiKid]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:11 AM, arthurboy said:

The writer has overlooked Prayut's 'the military will return' should any elected government fail to 'solve' the country's problems.

So is the junta leader's declaration to Abe of a return to democracy by the end of this or early next year sincere or just PR guff?

It's guff.

Yes, he's reported not to be ruling out a military return if politician ' don't get it right ' or words to that effect.

How can the country move forward with the idea the military are always sitting in the wings looking for an excuse ? Even more than usual it's forget the public just keep the army happy.

Does the military academy run courses on how to implement a coup ?

[chooka]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:07 AM, NongKhaiKid said:

  On 2/10/2015 at 11:37 PM, chooka said:

A bit slow at grasping reality. What happened to all that rubbish propaganda they were trying to brainwash people with, the whole world understands and supports the coup.

Exactly but that was the gospel according to Thailand and never endorsed by the countries that LoS had no shame in representing.

This is not going to sit well with some posters on here, the ones the idolise, worship and gobbled up all the propaganda and begged for more. They will have to work overtime to spin this around.

[Stradavarius37]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:21 AM, chooka said:

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:07 AM, NongKhaiKid said:

  On 2/10/2015 at 11:37 PM, chooka said:

A bit slow at grasping reality. What happened to all that rubbish propaganda they were trying to brainwash people with, the whole world understands and supports the coup.

Exactly but that was the gospel according to Thailand and never endorsed by the countries that LoS had no shame in representing.

This is not going to sit well with some posters on here, the ones the idolise, worship and gobbled up all the propaganda and begged for more. They will have to work overtime to spin this around.

How cute! A TV human centipede - swallowing and expelling each other's crap.

[jcisco]

Does anyone know what this authors sources are for the information in this piece of crap. This is written with such a lack of a <deleted> that it has come out like a 5 years old,. I did this and then this and then that and blah blah....

please writers at these papers..... fake it till you make it, otherwise stop writing such shit

[Roadman]

If Prayuth wants something to demonstrate the value of his coup, perhaps he needs to pay what, to him, would be the most expensive price."

Disagree. He needs to stick to his original plan of reforms and elections as soon as possible and accept as he would have known when he coupe’d that there was going to be a cost to Thailand during the time frame of reforms. What he should not forget and all he has to do is cast himself back to the bloody mess and economic and social cesspit that Thailand was disappearing down prior to the coup to remember to continue down that Shinawatra dictatorial path was a larger and longer term cost to Thailand. Expensive and far reaching infrastructure deals with other governments should be as PM Abe correctly reiterates, be studied and considered for the long term. Accept that wisdom from the Japanese PM as it will also give the Thais the time to plan for the projects.

General Prayuth needs to just continue on the same path he originally chose, accept the constant loud mouthed clap trap from one particular party as what they are renowned for and get on with his reforms. He does not have to accept any price to demonstrate the value of his coup. In fact the more one thinks about that statement it shows teenage ignorance from the Nation writer of everything today and no thought of tomorrow. Tomorrow for General Prayuth is not a price but a vision of a better Thailand.

[chainarong]

One thing Thailand must keep in mind is to be in control at all times , the military should have known what the response from the US and its allies would be after the Coup in the 2006,(Just ask Gen Prem) now after telling lies to the world and your people there would be no Coup , you have taken the path, stay on it and don't get side tracked by super powers, Austin powers or anybody who thinks they are anybody , the point being you have made a start on reforms, don't be bullied into or respond to the carrot on the stick trick and go back to Democracy before time ,just because the US wants it , not until all the reforms have been completed and the proper course for Thailand has been set ,RT General P.M. Prayut - O , you made the call , now finish the job.

[NeverSure]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:46 AM, Roadman said:

If Prayuth wants something to demonstrate the value of his coup, perhaps he needs to pay what, to him, would be the most expensive price."

Disagree. He needs to stick to his original plan of reforms and elections as soon as possible and accept as he would have known when he coupe’d that there was going to be a cost to Thailand during the time frame of reforms. What he should not forget and all he has to do is cast himself back to the bloody mess and economic and social cesspit that Thailand was disappearing down prior to the coup to remember to continue down that Shinawatra dictatorial path was a larger and longer term cost to Thailand. Expensive and far reaching infrastructure deals with other governments should be as PM Abe correctly reiterates, be studied and considered for the long term. Accept that wisdom from the Japanese PM as it will also give the Thais the time to plan for the projects.

General Prayuth needs to just continue on the same path he originally chose, accept the constant loud mouthed clap trap from one particular party as what they are renowned for and get on with his reforms. He does not have to accept any price to demonstrate the value of his coup. In fact the more one thinks about that statement it shows teenage ignorance from the Nation writer of everything today and no thought of tomorrow. Tomorrow for General Prayuth is not a price but a vision of a better Thailand.

[yellowboat]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:46 AM, Roadman said:

If Prayuth wants something to demonstrate the value of his coup, perhaps he needs to pay what, to him, would be the most expensive price."

Disagree. He needs to stick to his original plan of reforms and elections as soon as possible and accept as he would have known when he coupe’d that there was going to be a cost to Thailand during the time frame of reforms. What he should not forget and all he has to do is cast himself back to the bloody mess and economic and social cesspit that Thailand was disappearing down prior to the coup to remember to continue down that Shinawatra dictatorial path was a larger and longer term cost to Thailand. Expensive and far reaching infrastructure deals with other governments should be as PM Abe correctly reiterates, be studied and considered for the long term. Accept that wisdom from the Japanese PM as it will also give the Thais the time to plan for the projects.

General Prayuth needs to just continue on the same path he originally chose, accept the constant loud mouthed clap trap from one particular party as what they are renowned for and get on with his reforms. He does not have to accept any price to demonstrate the value of his coup. In fact the more one thinks about that statement it shows teenage ignorance from the Nation writer of everything today and no thought of tomorrow. Tomorrow for General Prayuth is not a price but a vision of a better Thailand.

Is there a check list as to what is to be reformed and how? It just sounds like, as this is the second time around deposing an elected government, that all this is to marginalize the voting power of those in the East and North. The Yellows are afraid to campaign in those places. That is why they can never win. Westerners who have grown up in representative governments, who support the coup is a wonderful, yet chilling learning experience

[Reigntax]

He will say anything at any time to play down an awkward situation with other world leaders.

"There will not be any coup". 2 days later a coup. Either he knew the coup would take place in 2 days or he made a rash decision. Given his previous comments on what had occurred behind the scene, I doubt it was a rash decision.

Its easy to work out just what the intention of his coup statement was as is his statement of 2016 elections. There will be excuses why this will be changed when the time comes!

[cheeryble]

China is the only single comfortable nation Prayut can deal with.

x

China is the single nation Prayut can comfortably deal with.

[Snig27]

And as someone who was in Japan during the visit, the minimal media coverage was less than complimentary. He was described not as PM but with the D word. To the world at large he's pretty much universally regarded as a petty thug who has usurped the legitimate government - and that includes China who are still happy to use his geopolitical ignorance to further their own ends, including of course finding a supporting voice in the South China Sea disputes.

[lildragon]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:46 AM, Roadman said:

If Prayuth wants something to demonstrate the value of his coup, perhaps he needs to pay what, to him, would be the most expensive price."

Disagree. He needs to stick to his original plan of reforms and elections as soon as possible and accept as he would have known when he coupe’d that there was going to be a cost to Thailand during the time frame of reforms. What he should not forget and all he has to do is cast himself back to the bloody mess and economic and social cesspit that Thailand was disappearing down prior to the coup to remember to continue down that Shinawatra dictatorial path was a larger and longer term cost to Thailand. Expensive and far reaching infrastructure deals with other governments should be as PM Abe correctly reiterates, be studied and considered for the long term. Accept that wisdom from the Japanese PM as it will also give the Thais the time to plan for the projects.

General Prayuth needs to just continue on the same path he originally chose, accept the constant loud mouthed clap trap from one particular party as what they are renowned for and get on with his reforms. He does not have to accept any price to demonstrate the value of his coup. In fact the more one thinks about that statement it shows teenage ignorance from the Nation writer of everything today and no thought of tomorrow. Tomorrow for General Prayuth is not a price but a vision of a better Thailand.

Yes because if history is anything to go by, Coups always ended fixing Thailand for the better

The people that voted Yingluck in should of been exposed to her governments failings and had the chance to vote her OUT. But yet again, the decision has been made for them.

Prayuth is finding out the most of the rest of the world has moved on from such feudalism, he is also finding out that the rest of the world isn't his army where he used to people not answering back to him, giving him difficult and relevant questions to answer (he can't have a tantrum on the international stage like he does on the Thai one though) and have people lick his boots.

Prayuth and his ilk of old dinosaur elites are a dying breed, but they will cling to power for the foreseeable future. I definitely wouldn't rule out another coup happening in the next 10 years.

[whybother]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:32 AM, jcisco said:

Does anyone know what this authors sources are for the information in this piece of crap. This is written with such a lack of a <deleted> that it has come out like a 5 years old,. I did this and then this and then that and blah blah....

please writers at these papers..... fake it till you make it, otherwise stop writing such shit

You obviously haven't read anything from "The Nation" before. You become desensitized after a while.

[bboy]

One wonders how long Thailand can make the right noises for the international ears, buy more time, deliberate and basically fob everyone off...until the pressure becomes crippling. Then we may see more severe outbursts at press conferences and more bipolar behaviour / contradictory statements. It's all a game!

[FangFerang]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:32 AM, jcisco said:

Does anyone know what this authors sources are for the information in this piece of crap. This is written with such a lack of a <deleted> that it has come out like a 5 years old,. I did this and then this and then that and blah blah....

please writers at these papers..... fake it till you make it, otherwise stop writing such shit

I have no idea what you are talking about -- in translation it seems you don't like what was said so you fell back on overgeneralized attacks that bear no resemblance to the text.

[losgrad]

Do the rich and powerful in Thailand prefer Japan/US or China/Russia? or will they straddle the fence to 'play' both?

Is the issue, the decision-making process of a Military Coup vs. Democracy or is the issue the decisions?

Things aren't always as they first appear....

[bkkgooner]

Let's see if the usual Thai idiots will start criticizing Japan on Facebook for giving Thailand some advice like they did to the US or will they keep their mouths shut about the land of Doraemon.

[tbthailand]

  On 2/11/2015 at 12:00 AM, yellowboat said:

The next election, something Prayut is reluctant to speak on at home, needed to be mentioned during several meetings with Japanese officials, including Abe. The poll could be held by the end of this year or early next year.

The good general is more forthcoming with the Japanese than with his own people. He is an elitist.

before the trip there were multiple signals that the 'NCPO' was going to hang around longer than originally acknowledged.

In Japan, that all went out the window and 'end of this year, early 2016' came back.

I expect the schedule to return to 'Thai-junta-time' when the General gets home... Nothing's changed...

[lildragon]

Japan being Thailand's biggest investor probably has something to do with no immediate anti Japanese feeling I would imagine

[tbthailand]

  On 2/11/2015 at 1:09 AM, Reigntax said:

He will say anything at any time to play down an awkward situation with other world leaders.

"There will not be any coup". 2 days later a coup. Either he knew the coup would take place in 2 days or he made a rash decision. Given his previous comments on what had occurred behind the scene, I doubt it was a rash decision.

Its easy to work out just what the intention of his coup statement was as is his statement of 2016 elections. There will be excuses why this will be changed when the time comes!

As an aside,

Given his previous comments on what had occurred behind the scene, I doubt it was a rash decision.

given the reports of the number of soldiers scattered across Isaan rounding up UDD/PTP politicians and activists on the day of the coup, it looks like a very well-planned decision.

These guys are transparent in all the wrong ways...

[JAG]

  On 2/11/2015 at 1:28 AM, losgrad said:

Do the rich and powerful in Thailand prefer Japan/US or China/Russia? or will they straddle the fence to 'play' both?

Is the issue, the decision-making process of a Military Coup vs. Democracy or is the issue the decisions?

Things aren't always as they first appear....

I doubt they mind as long as they remain on top of the pile domestically.