Thai economy posts weakest growth for three years

[Robby nz]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

You may well ask then why Yingluck dropped tax payments for the rich when she cut corporate tax.

[trogers]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

You may well ask then why Yingluck dropped tax payments for the rich when she cut corporate tax.

Isn't XYZ Asset a corporate?

[rubl]

Some only read headlines and think that's enough to know a topic.

Here we have parts of previous plans, but with a completely different financing means. No 2.2 trillion Baht now to be paid back later, no now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget. Raises the deficit, but makes it more transparent.

Are you sure about this Rubl? I would be interested to look at the budget you are extrapolating your data from? I would also be interested to see where the previous Government were going to get 2.2 trillion up front.

Isn't the cost even more than 2.2 trillion now despite the '40% Thaksin tax'?

Yes I'm sure. As for info, do some searching yourself.

As for extrapolation, no such thing.

The 2.2 trillion Baht the Yingluck government wanted to borrow, just read their brochure. Only took 50 years to repay it was estimated.

As for the "40% Thaksin tax", no idea what you mean. Even Ms. Yingluck only dared a blanket amnesty bill, but not a 40% tax for Thaksin one.

In the mean time, even the massive rail projects seem to stall a bit. With limited funds the government has no option but to go for co-investment and the Thai possibilities for investment are limited. Not all Yingluck's fault of course, also those pesky foreign countries which can't keep their economy in order to allow them to buy big from Thailand.

So to be clear, of the points you made:

"now we have instalments budgeted in the Nation Budget" You cannot back that up? I would of thought making such a firm statement that you would have those details readily available.

"No 2.2 trillion Baht now" You cannot show any evidence that the 2.2 trillion was to be paid in one go?

So you cannot back up either of your two points you made?

As an aside whether something is paid back over 1 year or 50 years it does not make one better than the other, surely it all depends on performance, loan agreements, interest rates etc. Surely to use the 50 year pay back period as a negative means you are party to fairly comprehensive information on the agreements?

So, you didn't get the Yingluck Administration's brochure with all necessary details on the 2.2 trillion Baht ? I'm terribly sorry, I thought you would be on the distribution list. Anyway, you've been here long enough promoting the Yingluck Administration. If there's someone with info then surely it must be you.

As an aside paying back in 50 years time does suggest a one-time round to get the finances.

"Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister, has embarked on a mission to raise the cash. A fortnight ago parliament passed a bill that permits the government to take on off-budget debt equivalent to the combined annual economic output of Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/10/infrastructure-spending-thailand

And from our dear Mr. "little white lies" Kittiratt

"He explained that, since the 2.2-trillion-baht loan would be separated from the annual national expenditure, the Government would be able to set a balanced national budget in the next few years. This huge investment in the mega-projects is meant to enhance the country’s potential and competitiveness in the long run. He pointed out that the assets resulting from this investment would benefit the country for a long period, even after debt repayment is completed."

http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_news.php?id=6694&a=2

As a little interesting aside, Kittiratt is also the hand-picked knowledgeble, capable and full of potential guy who on the day before the RPPS started stated the project would require 440 billion Baht , but sales of rice would see the money return.

Now the current government with their resevation in the National Budget.

Here info on the draft, but as you now a rubberstamp parliament doesn't make unnecessary changes. It shows 740 bililon Baht reservation for higher-speed railtracks

http://asiancorrespondent.com/125880/thai-juntas-2015-draft-budget-infographics/

"The government has set aside an investment budget for 14 projects, and to prevent redundance in spending the money, a formed a committee to monitor how the money was spent, Gen Prayuth told the Assembly."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/761232-nla-approves-2015-thai-govt-budget/

I hope your happy now?

PS don't bother to ask for more. I have limited time and too many requests from interested TVF posters. I think I still need to put Brucy on the right track and of course the dear Diva, as all females, needs my attention (I also owe it to my dear too early departed friend phiphidon).

Cheers,

uncle rubl

Edited February 16, 2015 by rubl

[konying]

Let's say they raise taxes considerably from Thais who are in the richest 3 or 5%, and they use this money to carry out policies that will benefit the poorest half of Thailand.

Surely, even if economic growth is only 1.5% per year, well, lots of people would still be better off. It's only 3 or 5% who are going to be angry.

Do not need to raise, only need to make sure people actually pay some taxes.

Large majority do not pay any taxes at all ever in their life.

You could argue they pay VAT assuming business who charges VAT actually pays it

[Robby nz]

But the latest figures will heap pressure on the leaders, who have vowed to curb subsidies to agriculture and called on Thais to wean themselves of credit. Thailand is one of Southeast Asia's most indebted kingdoms.

How many kingdoms are there in SE Asia ?

And how did Thailand get into this debt situation ?

Check out how much the country and the people were left in extra debt after the PT administration had finished their benevolent time in office.

Didn't I read somewhere that the household debt situation had improved since the coup, now the rice farmers had been paid and things are starting to move forward, yes sure I did.

The 'wean from credit' bit only refers to loan sharks and we see soft loans being made available to farmers and others and a start to loan sharks being arrested. Of course there are still those who got new cars under someone's scheme when the really couldn't afford then and now have loans to pay back.

[wowfactor10]

I wish for the economical growth and well being of Thai citizens the following :

Thailand will move forward in a more stable and real democratic manner

Talks needed, tv debates needed ,working together needed between all political parties in Thailand..

Seems to me that Thailand has completely lost its economical momentum due too constant power struggles and distrusting their rivals in the last decade..

Good luck with it

[rubl]

I wish for the economical growth and well being of Thai citizens the following :

Thailand will move forward in a more stable and real democratic manner

Talks needed, tv debates needed ,working together needed between all political parties in Thailand..

Seems to me that Thailand has completely lost its economical momentum due too constant power struggles and distrusting their rivals in the last decade..

Good luck with it

Agree.

May I sharpen one wish a bit though?

Instead of

"working together needed between all political parties in Thailand"

I would prefer

"working together for the country rather than the party, small groups of people or even individuals"

I know, that should be obvious, but this is Thailand

[englishoak]

Juntas and soldiers arnt known for their economic or business expertise or savvy...

I can't imagine what idiot would think they are.

The economy might be in trouble but hey no problem, the important thing is the people are happy.

This keeps up everyone here will be getting a far better exchange rate soon and the expat community will also be happy.

YAY

[elgordo38]

All the old codgers who come on here moaning about the exchange rate may have something to cheer. Growth drops, interest rate may be lowered to promote investment, value of baht drops, codgers happy.

Just another example of knock down interest rates for the savers and give free money to people that have none and when they borrow it at cheap rates cannot pay it back. All this does is tell people to he*l with saving spend it now as we will get no interest on our money when we retire. One reason the stock market here is on fire as its the only game in town.

[wowfactor10]

I wish for the economical growth and well being of Thai citizens the following :

Thailand will move forward in a more stable and real democratic manner

Talks needed, tv debates needed ,working together needed between all political parties in Thailand..

Seems to me that Thailand has completely lost its economical momentum due too constant power struggles and distrusting their rivals in the last decade..

Good luck with it

Agree.

May I sharpen one wish a bit though?

Instead of

"working together needed between all political parties in Thailand"

I would prefer

"working together for the country rather than the party, small groups of people or even individuals"

I know, that should be obvious, but this is Thailand

Seems we agree something..for the first time then...

Yes political parties should normally working for the country i thinking this was clear already.

There should come a political climate that gives real stability.problem is that after an election there is always one group that is upset with the other group..So then instead of working together they all prefer to hate and to fight.over and over again....really boring with it !!

And because of that this country is going downwards economical.Cause investors and tourists get enough from it.There been fights for so many years now and it only costing Thais their money...

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

The THB is 20 to 25% stronger compared to most western currencies except the USD compared to a year ago, so exporting themselves back to growth will be difficult without a devaluation of the THB, domestic consumption will not save the day either, as most Thais have borrowed to much. Big spending quality tourists have been chased away and the busloads of Chinese will not compensate for the missing Quality tourists. Most new FDI investments in the area is going to the Philippines, Indonesia and to Cambodia. So what are their options? Borrow more money from China and Japan to build new railways? Not really a long term solution either. I can't see any real growth here during the coming years.