Goldman Sachs on the Baht

[Suradit69]

Goldman Sachs Sees Baht Capped by Intervention to Shield Export

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s central bank may cap a rally in the baht, Southeast Asia’s best-performing currency this year, to protect exporters, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The baht has gained 1.6 percent against the greenback in 2015, heading for the biggest quarterly advance in two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Morgan Stanley trade-weighted index for the currency is near a 22-month high, while the balance of payments, a measure of international cash flows, moved to a surplus in January for the first time since July.

Thailand’s foreign-exchange reserves climbed to $157.3 billion last month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Morgan Stanley’s trade-weighted baht index has risen 2.8 percent this year to 114.85 and reached 115 last month, the highest since April 2013.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/goldman-sachs-sees-baht-capped-by-intervention-to-shield-exports?cmpid=yhoo

Edited March 4, 2015 by Suradit69

[Rancid]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

[Suradit69]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

Quite agree. Anything any of them say or do is meant to serve their own interests and they all are known to advise their own clients one thing while trading the exact opposite for their own accounts.

Also there is continuing revelations about how the big players have been manipulating the forex and precious metals prices and LIBOR rates.

Still, in this case GS is probably right about the intent of the central bank.

New York’s top banking regulator is investigating whether Barclays and Deutsche Bank used algorithms to manipulate foreign exchange rates, which could increase the penalties they face, a person familiar with the probe said.

In November, UBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America were fined more than $4bn for their role in a forex rate-rigging scandal.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/863a7b3c-813e-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html

(Reuters) - The global gold price setting benchmark or "fix" is open to manipulation, said the head of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which is competing to offer an alternative to the silver fix when the system is disbanded in August.

The gold and silver fixes, along with other commodity benchmarks, have come under increasing scrutiny by regulators in Europe and the United States since a London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) manipulation case last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/10/uk-gold-fix-lme-idUSKBN0EL2HB20140610

Edited March 4, 2015 by Suradit69

[KittenKong]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

[nidieunimaitre]

And let's not forget:

Goldman Sachs are the ones that advised the Greek government and Greek Central Bank on how to cheat their way into the Eurozone at the expense of the European taxpayer.

Draghi of the ECB is on their payroll, and so was Samaras.

IF it serves THEIR purpose, they will surely tell the thruth....

[Anthony5]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

Quite agree. Anything any of them say or do is meant to serve their own interests and they all are known to advise their own clients one thing while trading the exact opposite for their own accounts.

Also there is continuing revelations about how the big players have been manipulating the forex and precious metals prices and LIBOR rates.

Still, in this case GS is probably right about the intent of the central bank.

New York’s top banking regulator is investigating whether Barclays and Deutsche Bank used algorithms to manipulate foreign exchange rates, which could increase the penalties they face, a person familiar with the probe said.

In November, UBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America were fined more than $4bn for their role in a forex rate-rigging scandal.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/863a7b3c-813e-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html

(Reuters) - The global gold price setting benchmark or "fix" is open to manipulation, said the head of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which is competing to offer an alternative to the silver fix when the system is disbanded in August.

The gold and silver fixes, along with other commodity benchmarks, have come under increasing scrutiny by regulators in Europe and the United States since a London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) manipulation case last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/10/uk-gold-fix-lme-idUSKBN0EL2HB20140610

And the hypocrisy is that they pay billions of $ to the government, while the man in the street who was scammed and duped big time, gets nothing.

Well in fact he is scammed and duped one more time, this time by his government, because the bank that got caught out will recover the penalty fees on the back of their customers. And guess who is that.

Edited March 4, 2015 by Anthony5

[paddyjenkins]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

My observation is that Goldman Sachs gets things right about 15% of the time, wrong the rest. In that sense i find them very useful. That said, the average Goldman Sachs analyst is a genius compared to the illiterate imbeciles that make up most of this forum, whose only contribution is unintentional comic relief, for me. That said for the second time, on this occasion I agree with what Goldman Sachs said about the baht and in fact i made a similar comment several weeks ago. Edited March 4, 2015 by paddyjenkins

[Asiantravel]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

My observation is that Goldman Sachs gets things right about 15% of the time, wrong the rest. In that sense i find them very useful. That said, the average Goldman Sachs analyst is a genius compared to the illiterate imbeciles that make up most of this forum, whose only contribution is unintentional comic relief, for me. That said for the second time, on this occasion I agree with what Goldman Sachs said about the baht and in fact i made a similar comment several weeks ago.

Rancid commented on the trustworthiness (or lack of it) of Goldman Sachs. There is a substantial difference between being wrong compared to deliberately misleading clients.

And even if you were to call me an illiterate imbecile on this forum at least it doesn't cost me anything Unlike the clients of Goldman Sachs who after paying money for their advice were referred to by this company as " Muppets ".

Edited March 5, 2015 by Asiantravel

[stoli]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

So, your reply is: "I disagree with Goldman Sachs statement, but I may be wrong." Very bold statement. ??????

[Thakkar]

Michael Lewis' Liars Poker was published in the early Eighties. In it he described how investment banks intentionally "blew up" their clients, if it meant that would make money for themselves.

This M.O. should've been widely known since then but miraculously, the banks have been able to get away with the same M.O. for decades since.

Reading this thread, I'm gratified that the general skepticism we should have had since the early Eighties is now finally widespread.

Having said that, there is a trend of competitive devaluation going on, and surely Thailand will join the fray. I doubt though that the movements will be substantial as all sides seem cognizant of the the dangers of an all-out currency war.

T

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

If you look at their trading desk you will find that they lose money only 0.001% of the time. The reason for this is not that are such great traders but because all the markets are rigged. The TBTF have been fined for rigging FX, LIBOR, energy, S&P for credit ratings on debt and now the investigation into PM rigging. The world has become one big ponzi scheme.

[bangkapi]

Goldman Sachs loves to mislead the "muppets" for the gain of a few insiders.

[Muhendis]

Where money is involved............Trust no one.

In God we trust All others pay cash.

[Pinot]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

My observation is that Goldman Sachs gets things right about 15% of the time, wrong the rest. In that sense i find them very useful. That said, the average Goldman Sachs analyst is a genius compared to the illiterate imbeciles that make up most of this forum, whose only contribution is unintentional comic relief, for me. That said for the second time, on this occasion I agree with what Goldman Sachs said about the baht and in fact i made a similar comment several weeks ago.

So...You're an illiterate imbecile? Or a genius? Perhaps if you say it a third time?

[Broeno]

Who the <deleted> is Golman Sachs.

They better publish what i say. Then you know its bare nonsens.

[Si Thea01]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

Wasn't it alleged that this particular organisation played a major role in the GFC. And you are so right, not a very trustworthy group. Are they up to their old tricks using the Baht to do so?

[abrahamzvi]

And let's not forget:

Goldman Sachs are the ones that advised the Greek government and Greek Central Bank on how to cheat their way into the Eurozone at the expense of the European taxpayer.

Draghi of the ECB is on their payroll, and so was Samaras.

IF it serves THEIR purpose, they will surely tell the thruth....

If I were you, I would be more careful with your statement. If you maintain that Mr. Draghi and the ECB are on the payroll of Goldman Sachs , what you are saying is the all the European governments, including Germany and other EURO countries are ruled by Goldman Sachs.This is more that ridiculous!!

[paddyjenkins]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

Show me any "professional" who gets it right more than 50% of the time, except those who happen to be so widely followed that whatever they say or do dictates what the market will do.

My observation is that Goldman Sachs gets things right about 15% of the time, wrong the rest. In that sense i find them very useful. That said, the average Goldman Sachs analyst is a genius compared to the illiterate imbeciles that make up most of this forum, whose only contribution is unintentional comic relief, for me. That said for the second time, on this occasion I agree with what Goldman Sachs said about the baht and in fact i made a similar comment several weeks ago.

So...You're an illiterate imbecile? Or a genius? Perhaps if you say it a third time?

You prove my point

[1FinickyOne]

Sure, they are right,… or wrong, and they reserve the right to change thier minds at the change of the wind… and have their own motivation for telling you something one day and going the other way… when enough of the advisers say the same thing then you may or may not profit by playing with them or against them...

what I am trying to say here is I rarely bother to pay attention to any of them anymore… and I am probably happier for it.

[Anthony5]

Goldman, as are all investment bankers, can be best compared to weathermen on television.

Tomorrow we will have heavy thunderstorms, with a chance on sun.

[blazes]

I seem to recall that at the end of 2013, Goldman Sachs was calling for a price of gold at the end of 2014 of $1050.

So far the price has not been manipulated downwards further than about $1150.

Perhaps GS are losing their touch?

[winstonc]

And let's not forget:

Goldman Sachs are the ones that advised the Greek government and Greek Central Bank on how to cheat their way into the Eurozone at the expense of the European taxpayer.

Draghi of the ECB is on their payroll, and so was Samaras.

IF it serves THEIR purpose, they will surely tell the thruth....

the only valid post in this discussion ...100% correct..short memories for some...

[Srikcir]

An analysis of baht stability can be complex and subjected to many contradictions. The MS report appears to put a rosy spin on the economic pressures building against the baht's strength.

Morgan Stanley’s trade-weighted baht index has risen 2.8 percent this year to 114.85 and reached 115 last month, the highest since April 2013.

Thailand's industrial confidence index for February 2015 has fallen for the first time in a period of four months.

Southeast Asia’s best-performing currency this year

But the worst GDP performance

Thailand is one of Southeast Asia's most indebted kingdoms. The troubles for the once buoyant economy comes as regional rivals Indonesia and the Philippines pull ahead.

Unemployment rate in farm and non-farm sectors last year increased with the number of unemployed in both sectors totaling 230,000 representing an increase of 0.84 percent.

"The number of people who failed to repay debt for more than three months in the last quarter of 2014 rose to 30.4 percent, which is valued at more than 14.2 billion baht,"

the balance of payments, a measure of international cash flows, moved to a surplus in January for the first time since July.

The joint standing committee has revised down its export-growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to just 2 per cent-2.5 per cent,

The Ministry of Commerce has revealed that the Kingdom’s exports and imports in January shrank by 3.46% and 13.33% respectively, due to low agricultural and fuel prices.

The Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) revealed that exports and imports last month came to 17.25 billion USD and 17.7 billion USD respectively, causing a trade deficit of 457 million dollars.

[elgordo38]

Goldman Sachs are not really trustworthy, many times they advise one thing and trade the other way.

This time they may be right.

Quite agree. Anything any of them say or do is meant to serve their own interests and they all are known to advise their own clients one thing while trading the exact opposite for their own accounts.

Also there is continuing revelations about how the big players have been manipulating the forex and precious metals prices and LIBOR rates.

Still, in this case GS is probably right about the intent of the central bank.

New York’s top banking regulator is investigating whether Barclays and Deutsche Bank used algorithms to manipulate foreign exchange rates, which could increase the penalties they face, a person familiar with the probe said.

In November, UBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America were fined more than $4bn for their role in a forex rate-rigging scandal.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/863a7b3c-813e-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html

(Reuters) - The global gold price setting benchmark or "fix" is open to manipulation, said the head of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which is competing to offer an alternative to the silver fix when the system is disbanded in August.

The gold and silver fixes, along with other commodity benchmarks, have come under increasing scrutiny by regulators in Europe and the United States since a London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) manipulation case last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/10/uk-gold-fix-lme-idUSKBN0EL2HB20140610

The "Fix" is in on every tradeable item from currency, stocks to precious metals to oil its all manipulated. The "big boys" drive it up and down and profit on the upside and downside its a rigged game. The US suckered all the oil companies (big cheap loans plus tax breaks) to start fracking to the point where they are all loosing money now but the US is getting cheap oil. Its a mugs game at best.

[elgordo38]

PS The US also used fracking to build inventories and lower prices (looks good to garner votes in the future as well) and this will keep OPEC in line for the foreseeable future, plus it creates problems in Venezula which the US has no great love for and also Iran and also other unstable African countries that are large oil producers. This will also save them money as they no longer have to go to war over oil in the near future. Unfortunately for Canada big brother is eyeing our large fresh water resources. With all the droughts in the US (due to poor water management) fresh water will become more precious than oil. As someone said in a past US election "I can already hear that big sucking sound" as they turn their gaze north. I am sure the plans for a huge pipeline is already on the drawing boards as they try and figure some way to rob us of this precious resource (goodbye Great Lakes) Its funny that years ago before the fracking boom how continuous governments in the states almost k****d our arse for access to the oil sands resources. Now that they are self sufficient (for a while anyway as fracking wells deplete fast) in oil they keep turning down our request for the Keystone pipeline so much for trading partners that should work together. The US only works with other countries as long as it benefits them and is in their best interests.

[BlackJack]

there are many facets to this

here is a more balance perspective

http://www.thefinancialist.com/the-curious-case-of-thailand/

[Frank78]

Nothing to do with Goldman Sachas or not. It follows the natural history of a currency. There is a big chance thai central bank will decide to print thai baths to either stop his rally or in order to weakens it. Bottom line is.. buys USD against THB. I really don't care about Goldman and Co but I can say they were 100% right about the long fall of the euro against US and I had saved big money cause of people like em. so if you wants to keep your capital intact along the years, you should put aside your world domination conspiracy theory for a second and pay a LITTLE attention to currencies specialists.

[nidieunimaitre]

Where money is involved............Trust no one.

In God we trust All others pay cash.

god will have to pay me in cash -and I will (against my principles) double charge him/her/it. And if his real name is jehova or allah, I will triple charge him.

I know that's not fair, but after all the suffering he created, who is he to talk about fairness?

[nidieunimaitre]

Nothing to do with Goldman Sachas or not. It follows the natural history of a currency. There is a big chance thai central bank will decide to print thai baths to either stop his rally or in order to weakens it. Bottom line is.. buys USD against THB. I really don't care about Goldman and Co but I can say they were 100% right about the long fall of the euro against US and I had saved big money cause of people like em. so if you wants to keep your capital intact along the years, you should put aside your world domination conspiracy theory for a second and pay a LITTLE attention to currencies specialists.

If you change "currency specialists" by "currency speculators/manipulators" I might take you seriously.

[mango66]

the Thaksins are out, and Thailand is getting better,

whom it wonders ??

Less money to Dubai !!