First quarter growth at over 3% expected



BANGKOK: -- Economic growth for 2015 is expected to be bolstered by recovering tourism, private consumption and accelerated government spendings with projection in the first quarter to grow over 3%.

The projection was revealed at yesterday’s meeting of the economic ministers by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

The state think-tank said that the government’s planned spending measures are expected to bear fruit and stimulate the economy by the late second or early third quarter.

During the said period, over 100 billion baht is slated to be disbursed, including 40 billion for road construction and repairs, 17 billion for water management, and 15 billion in low-interest loans to small and medium-sized enterprises.

It said a gradual economic recovery is targeted after last year’s fourth quarter growth is expected to be above target with tourism, government investment and domestic consumption being key drivers.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/first-quarter-growth-at-over-3-expected

-- Thai PBS 2015-03-19

no comment.

Maybe just wishful thinking

Pigs flying everywhere.............

"Economic growth for 2015 is expected to be bolstered by recovering tourism, private consumption and accelerated government spendings with projection in the first quarter to grow over 3%."

This projection indicates a failure to achieve 4% in the first quarter as predicted by Prayut!

This first quarter prediction is based in part on the government’s planned spending measures that are expected to bear fruit and stimulate the economy by the late second or early third quarter. If government spending is not going to "bear fruit" until the second OR third quarters, it cannot contribute to growth in the first quarter! The business sector has been SCREAMING for the military government to begin its plan to drive an economic revival but to date it "has yet to materialise." - Thailand cuts interest rates as economy stutters, 2015-03-11.

The so-called recovering tourism comes when Thailand should be seeing a seasonal increase. It did increase as historically expected so does not contribute to an increase on GDP growth.

I expect a first quarter growth rate of 2.4%-3%. Thereafter, growth rates for the second and third quarters are unlikely to improve and may deteriorate further. The projected annual GDP growth rate for Thailand in 2015 is beginning to look more like 2.5%. Even that rate may be overly optimistic if more political upheaval occurs toward the end of 2015 should the draft constitution NOT be put to a public referendum and/or elections predicted for the first quarter of 2016 are delayed indefinitely while the nation continues under Junta martial law.

They're just factoring in the inflation rate.