Kra Canal to have huge security and social implications

[JAG]

Night and day obviously!!

[AlphMichaels]

Dawei. It's going to happen eventually. It's a pitiful mess ATM after years of throwing money at it and having it slip in generals hands.

30 years out before complete. Japan is throwing money at it. ITD was ruled incompetent and the contract paused by prior administration. Looks like it may be back on track and it is a positive trade route. Many multinationals are positioning to participate in Myanmar now that the door has been (only) cracked open. They'll do so, in part, with the understanding it's part of the plan and a long slog work in progress. But they'll throw money at it in exchange for "favors" including rights to est Mfg, use port facilities, etc.

[pendingo]

I think this will become feasible over time and probably will form a border between Thailand and Malaysia ultimately.

However, there seem to be conflicting reports about the Chinese involvement in the Kra Canal construction.

According to the China Daily Mail the Chinese are pushing for it but The Straits Times says they have denied any involvement.

Lots of smoke and mirrors here.

Definitely a political hot potato.

[animatic]

I think this will become feasible over time and probably will form a border between Thailand and Malaysia ultimately.

However, there seem to be conflicting reports about the Chinese involvement in the Kra Canal construction.

According to the China Daily Mail the Chinese are pushing for it but The Straits Times says they have denied any involvement.

Lots of smoke and mirrors here.

Definitely a political hot potato.

Thailand as owner would never consider letting the border slide northward to the edge of their cash cow. If anything it would cause even greater defense of the lower border. There is the most likely security issue for Thailand.

[kannot]

why dont they fix the bloody awful roads first nationwide?

[wombat]

Find the highest point and start digging

[DLang]

Tomorrow's News:

Thai students invent machine to teleport ships across Thailand. Win gold medal. Teacher tried to pass off the work as his own. All Thais are brilliant.

I dare say, by the time every reader of this thread is nothing but smoke in the sky, the Kra Canal will still only be rumoured in newspapers.

[FlipSide]

No-one in this forum yet seems to be considering the massive environmental implications of either digging the canal, and for a moment imagine one of the largest sea ports in Asia dividing Thailand between Ranong to Krabi, that would absolutely destroy some of Thailand's best nature. Add the oil slicks, warehousing & logistics of 16,000 containers a day, plus the garbage & run off, to the heavy industry. Just look at the container yards and pollution mess, scattered all through the industrial zones between BangNa & Pattaya as a pre cursor. It's a really bad idea, Kiss Thailand tourism and natural beauty goodbye. Is it really worth the sacrifice to turn that whole area both sides of the coast & in between into an industrial war zone. Dump the Kra idea again please.

[SilverBeast]

Was curious about the 'savings' in travel time. Cargo ships average 23kts (42kms/hour). Lets just say 20kts (37km/hr) for slow steaming. That's about 32 hours savings for 1200km. So how long to pass through the locks plus probably having to queue their turn? Plus, do they have to pass through immigration. Can't see much savings in time but in fuel usage.

If they were serious about speed and efficiency then it should have no locks and be double wide with occasional wider sections to make the ships passing easier. That's a lot of earth to move and hence the cost.

They should push or move it all out either to the sea and make a new island from it or whatever method is the most cost effective.

The biggest challenge is to see if they can acquire the land cheap and easy...

[billd766]

"Obviously, it's a significant shortcut of 1,200km for cargo ships that currently go through the Strait of Malacca in Singapore

Hmmm, looking at the map, it does not seem like it is a huge short cut, compared to Suez and the other one....

it just say significant, what are we talking weeks, days or hours?

to me this sounds a little blown out of proportions, is there really a need or is it made up by those receiving brown envelopes or trying to make some quick bucks on land

most likely as everything else in Thailand, this is a smokescreen for something else.........

Assuming the ship travels at 25 kph at the distance is 1,200 km it is an extra 48 hours sailing time. It would take longer to offload the containers onto a train, ship it across country and reload it on the other side assuming that there is a ship waiting there.

You would have to add the extra costs of berthing a ship at both ends, unloading and loading at the other end plus the cost of the rail transport and subtract the extra fuel costs for going around the long way.

[SilverBeast]

https://www.google.com/maps/place/8%C2%B018'06.6%22N+98%C2%B047'01.8%22E/@7.2665096,100.0831595,11z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en

Lots of earth to move...

[pendingo]

You are absolutely right FlipSide the environmental implications don't bear thinking about.

I hope it doesn't happen but I think ultimately it will go ahead if the global corporate lobby so desires.

[jaidam]

No-one in this forum yet seems to be considering the massive environmental implications of either digging the canal, and for a moment imagine one of the largest sea ports in Asia dividing Thailand between Ranong to Krabi, that would absolutely destroy some of Thailand's best nature. Add the oil slicks, warehousing & logistics of 16,000 containers a day, plus the garbage & run off, to the heavy industry. Just look at the container yards and pollution mess, scattered all through the industrial zones between BangNa & Pattaya as a pre cursor. It's a really bad idea, Kiss Thailand tourism and natural beauty goodbye. Is it really worth the sacrifice to turn that whole area both sides of the coast & in between into an industrial war zone. Dump the Kra idea again please.

Excellent point, reminds me of why the canal is an impossibility. That is because the water level of the Gulf of Thailand is not related to the mean level and tidal movements of the rest of the sea. Thai scientists assert that with the global warming and associated rise of sea level will NOT affect the GOT. Assuming these scientists are not talking absolute BS which I think they might be, the raging current in the new canal (from mean global level to GOT "special" level) would make navigation impossible and might cause such erosion that Thailand will no longer exist.

[animatic]

Hardly impossible, but locks at two ends would be inevitable.

Edited June 8, 2015 by animatic

[Chicog]

"""The Kra Canal can be comparable to the sea lanes in the Panama and Suez canals""

What a joke comparing a small detour of 1200 km with an enormous way around South America & Africa !

You got that right. Presumptuous buggers aren't they?

The only benefit I can see is a new and very practical Thai-Malaysia border and all the monk-murdering, teacher-bombing separatists of a different cloth can stay in their southern sh!thole and become totally UMNO's problem.

Just use the existing border. A bloody great big canal would make it a lot hard for their friends in Malaysia to supply them with weapons and explosives.

[elgordo38]

This project pops up every now and then when somebody high up in the Government needs a substantial contribution from Singapore for his retirement plans.....

It will become reality one day when all the "moneyed" people have control and options on all the land needed. They will cash in for a princely profit. Singapore by that time will be tired of paying.

[MockingJay]

Since the country already is divided into at least two fractions anyway, why not split it in two by force, right???

If they do it, Thailand (or should I better say - certain, already super rich people) will of course profit from the canal multiplying their assets, while the rest of the country, its nature, its people and especially tourism will receive the final death blow.

Edited June 8, 2015 by MockingJay

[elgordo38]

No-one in this forum yet seems to be considering the massive environmental implications of either digging the canal, and for a moment imagine one of the largest sea ports in Asia dividing Thailand between Ranong to Krabi, that would absolutely destroy some of Thailand's best nature. Add the oil slicks, warehousing & logistics of 16,000 containers a day, plus the garbage & run off, to the heavy industry. Just look at the container yards and pollution mess, scattered all through the industrial zones between BangNa & Pattaya as a pre cursor. It's a really bad idea, Kiss Thailand tourism and natural beauty goodbye. Is it really worth the sacrifice to turn that whole area both sides of the coast & in between into an industrial war zone. Dump the Kra idea again please.

Environment is a dead issue in this profit driven world.

[DLang]

environmental implications

Alai na?

[Basil B]

A lot cheaper, build two massive container ports either side of the peninsular with a massive rail link linking the two, possible scale up track and trains by 200% = double the containers lengthwise, double stacked, two deep = x8 containers per carriage.

Then upgrade the rail link with Malaysia to Lao, to link with China, HK and the rest of Asia possibly even Russia Europe.

The General will get his upgraded railway, at a cost probably cheaper then the cost of the proposed canal, lots of jobs and income for Thailand.

[Gunna]

The trade route to the Indian Ocean through the Malacca Strait has the problems of pirates, shipwrecks, haze, sediment and shoals. Its rate of accidents is twice as high as the Suez Canal and four times higher than the Panama Canal.

An alternative shorter route is to build a canal at Kra Isthmus, Thailand. It will save shipment costs and time as the route is

shortened by 1,000 km.

In 2011 dollars, the Thai Canal could hypothetically reduce annual oil shipping costs by $49 billion if the entire traffic of the

competing straight were diverted, disregarding canal fees and the return trip costs of the empty tanker.

The Kra Isthmus, a mere 44 kilometers at its thinnest point, would render the current necessity for navigating south and around

the entire Malaysian peninsula in East-West transit obsolete, connecting the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean to the South China

Sea. The fuel and time savings wouldnt be as great as they were in the case of the Panama or Suez canals, but a Thai Canal (also known as the Kra Canal) could assuage some of the overcrowding currently experienced in and near the Strait of Malacca.

Were the Thai Canal to be built, Malaysia and Singapore would suffer somewhat, but Malacca will always remain strategically

salient for trade between the Persian Gulf and Indonesia or Australia.

Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam would benefit greatly from a canal. For Myanmar, its littoral remains isolated from the South

China Sea nexus of the other Southeast Asian states, making trade between it and sea-based Southeast Asian partners reliant on

the Malacca passage. The Thai Canal would reduce the costs of sea-based trade significantly for Myanmar.

India, Japan and China all net importers of energy would benefit from having trade traverse the Kra Isthmus as well

Maybe they could take all the excavated soil and dump it in Bangkok to raise it above sea level.

the best design appears to be no locks by digging canal down to sea level, thus increasing the savings to shippers by shortening transit times and minimising delays and therefore being able to increase fees.

[phuketandsee]

The environment is not the only thing that will be impacted. Think of what will happen to the cross-border drug and prostitution business.

[mike324]

No-one in this forum yet seems to be considering the massive environmental implications of either digging the canal, and for a moment imagine one of the largest sea ports in Asia dividing Thailand between Ranong to Krabi, that would absolutely destroy some of Thailand's best nature. Add the oil slicks, warehousing & logistics of 16,000 containers a day, plus the garbage & run off, to the heavy industry. Just look at the container yards and pollution mess, scattered all through the industrial zones between BangNa & Pattaya as a pre cursor. It's a really bad idea, Kiss Thailand tourism and natural beauty goodbye. Is it really worth the sacrifice to turn that whole area both sides of the coast & in between into an industrial war zone. Dump the Kra idea again please.

Thanks for the heads up, the location of canal will be right where Tarutao National Park is, one of the most pristine and persevered areas of marine wild life left with minimum tourists. So yes it easier said than done, the negative factor seems to be to make this a reality. Looks like there is a small mountain range in the way too, so if they have to dig, they will have to cut up a mountain.

[Equalizer]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

Simple economics. Unloading a ship, transporting it cargo overland and re loading a ship would be 10 time more expensive than shipping them the extra 1200km

[Estrada]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

Cobra Swamp was not the Shins, it was Vattana Asavahame aided by Banharn and Suwat Liptapanlop. The NBIA was formed under General Chavalit's Government in 1996. The reclamation of Cobra Swamp was commenced in 1997 and took 5 years to complete. it has nothing to do with the Shinawatras. In fact the DSI prosecuted Banharn and Suwat's Company that bought the land from the shrimp farmers and eventually their company was fined the max fine under Thai Law of B6,000! in connection with the purchase. Vattana Asavahame skipped bail and is on the run, although I have it on good authority, that he is often at home in Samutprakarn.

The construction of the Airport was proposed in 1973 and cancelled and postponed by various Governments. At least Thaksin got the Airport constructed and opened

Nice try, but the major land value increase happened when it was reality that Swampy would be opening as the Bangkok international airport. Nobody is disputing the project was started decades ago but fizzled out- no opportunities for the poster boy of corruption when it's a stagnant project now is it? Sorry you do not remember the brouhaha surrounding the Shins land purchases in cobra swamp, but I do.

Nice try! But you are absolutely and totally mistaken. Not only was I involved in this affair, I was with Suwat at the time in Miami 1996, when he was orchestrating the land purchase. The DSI top investigator is also a friend of mine and has already given us a complete and accurate blow by blow account on which parties were involved in the land purchase and it does not include the Shins. I have been involved with the airport construction at various stages since the '80s and some of my friends since the '70s.

[phrisco17]

An efficiently-operated land-bridge, perhaps run by/with the help/expertise of the Port of Singapore, would be required. And their commercial involvement might ease their objection to this route bypassing Singapore itself ?

I understand that in the USA container-trains a couple-of-miles long, with containers stacked two-high, are common these days ?

And as I understand it, the only possible justification for the Canal-idea, is that the Straits-of-Molucca sea-route is close to its physical capacity, so an alternative-route has to be found ? Then ideas like a (surely cheaper) land-bridge or sea-to-sea canal must be contemplated.

The relative delay of a land-bridge, or indeed the very-expensive Canal, would only be justified by the current longer sea-route being totally full, IMO.

But in Thailand they would be stacked 4 or 5 high and the trains would topple off the tracks at the first turn!

[Ricardo]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

Simple economics. Unloading a ship, transporting it cargo overland and re loading a ship would be 10 time more expensive than shipping them the extra 1200km

Fine, but if the Straits are at capacity, then the ship cannot get through them, how much more expensive it that ?

[mrfill]

Presumably this is the way to solve the problems in the south. Cut the country along the dotted line and hope that the troublesome bit floats away.

[mrfill]

The new suez canal is to be about 100km, cost $8.4m and take 1 year to construct, so $28m seems perfectly reasonable for a comparable project in Thailand.

[mrdome]

I hope this will never get build and I doubt it will.