If the junta has to stay on, it must do better
KASAMAKORN CHANWANPEN
THE NATION



OBSERVERS WARN LONGER TERM MAY ALSO BE ROCKIER

BANGKOK: -- THE WAY AHEAD is not a bed of roses. The economy is flagging. The reforms are both threats and opportunities. If the junta is to stay for another two years and remain intact, it has to do its job right, political observers have said.

In the past couple of weeks, the political atmosphere has been overwhelmed by the waves caused by the junta's possible tenure extension, starting with the first move made by some National Reform Council (NRC) members. Using legal instruments, they put forward a few possible approaches that could stealthily give the green light to the extension of the National Council for Peace and Order's (NCPO) term as well as the terms of other essential organs established after the coup in 2014.

Subsequently, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, the premier and the coup-maker, picked up the ball and ran, saying he was ready to stay on - if the people wanted him to.

To date, the prospect of the tenure extension is a strong possibility despite political figures from the key camps coming out and criticising the ambitions of the NCPO and the country's other rivers of power.

It has become clearer every day to those who object to the extension that the junta will likely be in power longer. Admittedly, they concede that their dissatisfaction does not really matter as they are not able to protest. So, the junta could stay on, if all the conditions allow it. But the anti-extension camp cautioned that two more years of junta rule would not be all roses.

Attasit Pankaew, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University, said the junta staying on would provoke both support and objections, but they would amount to only a fraction of the voices. The lecturer believed that the people the government should worry about were the silent majority.

"The people who don't pay much attention to politics and have remained neutral in any disagreement might account for 60-70 per cent of the people. And they will explode if the government doesn't tackle bread-and-butter issues," said Attasit.

Additionally, he remarked that although the internal-friction force is manageable, the international pressure is beyond the military's control and could create a dramatic impact. For example, if international forces impose economic sanctions, the internal pressure would be magnified. Ultimately, it would cause severe damage to the junta, he warned.

Similarly, the vice president of Rangsit University's Research and Academic Services, Anusorn Tamajai, an economic expert, said the country in the near future might face an economic crisis irrespective of the coup. Inevitably, the economy will be a difficult challenge for the government, he said.

"The economy will likely go into recession, not because of the NCPO but because of many factors internal and external."

Anusorn said that the coup could hurt the economy because of foreign investors' reaction to it.

"Others might argue that stability is the key to boosting the economy. However, foreign investors favour stability with democracy. Now they are waiting for Thailand to be sustainably stabilised. So, to return to democracy at the soonest time is the best solution," he said.

The pro-democracy camp and activists share similar views. Sombat Boonngam-anong, aka Nuling, said that the PM could stay in power but ahead of him would lay a thorny road with the economy the major challenge.

Sombat alluded to the song "Returning Happiness to People in the Country" composed by the coup leader, saying that Prayut should keep his promise when he said: "Give us a little more time."

"How long is a little more exactly? The pro-democracy camp has tolerance. But they also have limits. Most importantly, the ailing economy is also pushing people closer to breaking point every minute," said Sombat.

On the other hand, the chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, Supant Mongkolsuthree, expressed sympathy for the government, saying the depressed economy is partly due to the world economy not having fully recovered. However, he also said jokingly that it would be nice if the government could review its economic team's performance.

Asked if there were any opportunities coming for the country and the junta, Attasit responded swiftly: "The reforms are the opportunity, if they could really be pushed through and serve their purpose well.

"If the reforms [under the proposed extended tenure] are successful, it will be a big plus for the NCPO as well as the country. But so far, I haven't really felt the impact. It hasn't occurred to me that they have accomplished anything," said Attasit.

Akanat Promphan, the People's Democratic Reform Committee's (PDRC) spokesman, said that the "great mass of people" wanted to hear the progress of the reform efforts.

He reiterated that the NCPO and the reformers should put in more effort and they could have done a lot better considering the power they have.

"The PDRC, or the 'great mass of people', never set a limit to the time it would take for the reform to be completed," he said. "It is a necessary step needed to be taken before the country can move forward and have an election.

"Thus, we should give it time. But so far, the NCPO and other organs [in the process] have only worked on the draft constitution. Much work is left to be done.

"For example, the reforms should include matters like decentralisation [of power], corruption crackdowns, and the prices of agricultural products. In particular the last one. The government should take care of it. They have more than enough power to do so."

Former Democrat MP Tankhun Jitissara has a similar opinion. He remarked that the reformers should make it clear to the public what they had been doing and what they were going to do.

"In the past year it has been unclear what they were doing. People will start questioning the reforms if no concrete progress is made," he said. "And I think they can do better. If they to stay on, it is the chance for them to push through the reforms harder than they have done in the past year."

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/If-the-junta-has-to-stay-on-it-must-do-better-30262312.html


-- The Nation 2015-06-15

Show some Thainess, mr director general, admit the military are just an expensive failure, turn and run with your tail between your legs, save face and blame everybody else, call an election and prepare for the next coup in 2 or 3 years.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

"If the junta has to stay on, it must do better"

Worse is not possible ! so yes, they must do better.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

<snip>

Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

Won't work - this would open the door to too many freedoms.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

I believe you answered your inferred question of why they weren't working to serve the people.

As MEDIOCRE has been the acceptable Thai standard for 100 years who would know "better " ?

this is the first government after more than a decade that really tackles the problems in Thailand

- and it has to do better to stay in power?

How stupid is this?

if this government does not continue to do its job Thailand will be back to corruption, and criminals in the government

this is the first government after more than a decade that really tackles the problems in Thailand

- and it has to do better to stay in power?

How stupid is this?

if this government does not continue to do its job Thailand will be back to corruption, and criminals in the government

How sweet and naive!!

This is all about consolidating power for people wearing blue shirts, all the keep an outdated feudal system in place.

The irony is that, the NPCO don't even realize, that they are being used as pawns by the real power!!

The vast majority of Thai residents would not have been happy with how this present administration came into office, but the vast majority of those would also appreciate why the change was required.

Thailand was headed for a fiscal cliff with a government blinded by greed, that government cared not for the ordinary Thai citizen or their standard of living. Contributors on TVF talk about the "elite's" who are benefiting now, what about then when we had a so called democratically elected government, who was benefiting then? Where did the billions of baht go from the failed and now discredited rice scheme? How many fortunes increased by obscene and inexplicable amounts under the previous administration?

Everyone who is blessed with at least half a brain will realize the problems facing Thailand are huge, corruption within the previous administrations (of both sides of the political fence) have taken a heavy toll, inefficiency within various government departments has been allowed to erode the services they provide, the Thai education system is now in need of widespread reform and rebuilding, has this all came about in the last 18-24 months?

If anyone thinks this present administration would fix all of this in a year or two then they must be delusional, much of the required changes will require a generational effort and billions of baht to be invested.

Does anyone reading this honestly believe that a return to the governments of the past would be a good thing? Are any of the personalities of the recent past capable of leading Thailand into a new era?

This present administration may not be perfect, we all know that, but at least they are motivated towards improving what was previously ignored and neglected. So they have to stay in power for another year, or two, or three....who cares as long as the ills of the past are being dealt with and treated.

The protestations from abroad regarding a return to the status quo are just that, protestations from foreign governments with their own political agenda's and ties to the multi nationals, they should be ignored and be politely asked to mind their own business. I understand foreign investment is needed but that must come on Thailand's terms and not that of the IMF or World Bank.

In short Thailand cannot afford a return to the political charades of the past, if real and lasting change is to be enacted then it must happen now, the clock is ticking with the rest of the world improving and progressing every day. If Thailand is to keep pace then the present administration must not only continue with the reforms it must pick up the pace, the young of this country deserve no less...

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

and do you honestly believe any country would lend their judiciary system to Thailand for three years in order to protect and uphold the reform.

I don't think so, and while the legal system under pinning the divestiture of the power vested in the people nothing is going to ever be reformed. This is a critical part of democratic systems like most of us are familiar with. When the very laws rights of the citizens are not protected via the judiciary against all violators there is no democracy. When the laws aren't enforced by an experienced, educated, well paid, independent judiciary who has only the desire to deliver just answers to questions before it and to be the only unassailable part of government that can be trusted. What nation cannot proceed democratically without trust that isn't faith in the rule of law.

I feel far too many people under estimate the position law and and it's keepers must play to ensure democracy. The systems worldwide for creating the judicial bodies and their maintenance are far from perfect. But have been held together by the very high expectations of each person of themselves coupled with prosecuting under the law justices who have acted criminally or negligentelly.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

God I hope you aren't serious. You'd have to be daft to think this constitution in it's current, unaltered form would pass any referendum. There is too much in it even the most illiterate people could easily vote against, like an unelected PM. Even many of the people hand picked by the NCPO or Mr. P are against portions of this draft.

The common people don't have to read the constitution. All they have to do is listen to the commentaries from those people who are reading the constitution and there are many leaders, politicians and ex-politicians reading it and handing out their comments.

And I said nothing about drafting a new constitution. You keep the parts everyone is OK with and take the worst parts and have the NRC and CDC get together and hammer out something everyone is OK with and then you send it to a referendum.

I'm all for taking the US constitution and working from that, but Thais are too proud and stubborn to work from the US constitution, though they might consider a Swiss constitution, which I'm unfamiliar with, though I'm sure it's pretty good. They bent over backwards enough just trying to emulate as close as they were willing to, the German government goad map.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

God I hope you aren't serious. You'd have to be daft to think this constitution in it's current, unaltered form would pass any referendum. There is too much in it even the most illiterate people could easily vote against, like an unelected PM. Even many of the people hand picked by the NCPO or Mr. P are against portions of this draft.

The common people don't have to read the constitution. All they have to do is listen to the commentaries from those people who are reading the constitution and there are many leaders, politicians and ex-politicians reading it and handing out their comments.

And I said nothing about drafting a new constitution. You keep the parts everyone is OK with and take the worst parts and have the NRC and CDC get together and hammer out something everyone is OK with and then you send it to a referendum.

I'm all for taking the US constitution and working from that, but Thais are too proud and stubborn to work from the US constitution, though they might consider a Swiss constitution, which I'm unfamiliar with, though I'm sure it's pretty good. They bent over backwards enough just trying to emulate as close as they were willing to, the German government goad map.

You are bang on. The constitution is designed to fail which means the whole process resets. It's a delaying tactic. They will stay in power for as long as the elephant in the room is still present in the room.

OB

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

"Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it."

Then you do not agree with a constitutional monarchy for Thailand but create a republic? That's impractical given the present Junta government. A better alternative more consistent with Thailand's culture and traditiona would be the adoption of an enduring constitutional monarch constitution like Canada. But the Thai requirement for a State sponsored religion negates that approach.

In the final analysis a democratic constitution is supposed to (in part) represent, protect, and preseve the sovereignty of the PEOPLE of the State. The problem for Thailand is that there are multiple "extra contitutionalities" that go beyond the people's constitutionality, ie., the Royal Thai Military. Obviously, the Thai military is very protective of its own sovereignty and capable of subjugating the people's sovereignty at any time of its chosing.

Such extra constitutionalities do not exist in Western democratic republics or constintutional monarchies. Thus, not worth the military's consideration.

The best solution would be to reinstate the plebisite-approved 2007 Constitution with a fully elected Senate (or one with only advisory capability like the UK), adoption of the German MMP electoral system, and the elimination of Independent bodies having extra constitutional powers.

I can't, for the life of me, understand why they aren't working furiously to amend or alter the constitution with regard to the most negative things objected to by many people including the NRC. Sending the constitutional draft to a vote in its current form guarantees a rejection and huge amounts of lost time. And if it is going to be sent to a referendum in its current form then why will it take until January for that referendum?

It is not difficult to think they are doing this on purpose to stay in power.

Why do you think it will be rejected?

No one will read the constitution and the vote will only depend on which camp hands out more money.

Drafting a complete new constitution is anyway pure nonsense. Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it.

"Take a good constitution, Swiss or USA, adjust it for Thailand and use it."

Then you do not agree with a constitutional monarchy for Thailand but create a republic? That's impractical given the present Junta government. A better alternative more consistent with Thailand's culture and traditiona would be the adoption of an enduring constitutional monarch constitution like Canada. But the Thai requirement for a State sponsored religion negates that approach.

In the final analysis a democratic constitution is supposed to (in part) represent, protect, and preseve the sovereignty of the PEOPLE of the State. The problem for Thailand is that there are multiple "extra contitutionalities" that go beyond the people's constitutionality, ie., the Royal Thai Military. Obviously, the Thai military is very protective of its own sovereignty and capable of subjugating the people's sovereignty at any time of its chosing.

Such extra constitutionalities do not exist in Western democratic republics or constintutional monarchies. Thus, not worth the military's consideration.

The best solution would be to reinstate the plebisite-approved 2007 Constitution with a fully elected Senate (or one with only advisory capability like the UK), adoption of the German MMP electoral system, and the elimination of Independent bodies having extra constitutional powers.

agree with the overall thrust of your post but disagree on the independent bodies these organisations should be strengthened in their capacity to investigate and also be responsible for delivery a set of concrete reports that set out detailed information covering what they been monitoring what they discovered and any actions and recommendations. It places the independent agencies into a position of going on record formally and performance accountability. That can be used when and if they have dropped the ball, and can permit discovery of any institutional or individual corruption within the agency by locating the intersections of accountable individuals in their reports and the ball being dropped.

It seems in the past the independent agencies were political entities with a nebulous duty to government or the people. Also I'd remove any access to the supreme courts and have lower courts as entry to ensure ability to observe and be aware of any legal cases bought by the.