Prolonged drought 'likely to hurt Thai GDP'

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DROUGHT IMPACT
Prolonged drought 'likely to hurt GDP'
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- THE worst drought in half a century will drag economic growth down by half a percentage point this year, causing gross domestic product to expand by less than 3 per cent, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

The survey found that the drought had already caused a loss of Bt68.14 billion to the economy.

"From a previous growth projection of 3-3.5 per cent, the Thai economy might expand by less than 3 per cent. The government should find remedy measures to help farmers as soon as possible," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

He suggested that the government provide a budget of between Bt70 billion and Bt100 billion to compensate farmers. He said the government could also help relieve the impact of the drought by giving Bt1,000 per rai to small-scale farmers with less than 15 rai (2.4 hectares).

The government should also help solve the problem of rising debt among farmers.

Thanavath said many farmers did not have enough money to grow their next crop.

He said the government needed to help relieve the impact on them to spur economic growth in each province.

The survey on 1,200 farmers found that more than 92.2 per cent of them had been hit by the drought. Only 7.8 per cent, mostly in the South, have been unaffected.

The drought has damaged 10 million to 12 million rai of rice farmland, 15 per cent of the total 60 million rai of farmland in the country.

The survey found the drought had hit 25 provinces, causing a loss of 4 million tonnes of rice.

The first drought from October to December last year created a loss of Bt32.51 billion, while the second drought from May to the present has created a loss of Bt35.63 billion so far.

Thanavath said the price of rice this year was quite low at an average of Bt7, 697 per tonne of white paddy rice.

This has caused farmers' income to drop by an average of 15 per cent, he said.

Wachira Koontaweethep, an assistant director at the centre, said the drought had caused a higher debt burden for farmers because of the rising cost of production and the cost of finding water, resulting in lower incomes and higher living expenses.

The survey found that more than 85 per cent of farmers had attempted to adjust to the drought by asking for the government's support, growing other crops, doing other work, sourcing an alternative water supply or moving to work in the city.

However, about 15 per cent had not yet adapted and were only waiting for government support and rainfall.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Prolonged-drought-likely-to-hurt-GDP-30264121.html

-- The Nation 2015-07-10

[oneday]

This is good, but right now it's just talk. I hope in the next article on this subject it states that the government IS doing something to help the poor farmers.

[Srikcir]

The GDP growth was going to fall to a range of 2.5%-3% irrespective of the drought.

But the Junta has held itself less than accountable for affecting any decrease in the GDP gowth rate. Now it can "drought" to its box of excuses.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

This drought can stretch over 2 rainfall seasons and can be devastating. They better hold on to enough rice and not start to sell like mad when world price goes up.

[Ulic]

The silver lining is the rice stockpile will go down, the difficult

outlook is this El Nino looks to be a big one and will probably

stretch into a two year drought so the Government should have plans

to save and conserve the rainfall that eventually falls. Drought

in Thailand does not mean no rain just significantly less than

average.