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Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?


Condo prices in BKK, 2 years outlook  

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Ahhh Midas thank you. You have just reminded me why I only post here very very rarely these days. Keyboard warriors such as yourself on the attack at every opportunity, so sad a life. I will gratiously exit so this topic can continue.

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Ahhh Midas thank you. You have just reminded me why I only post here very very rarely these days. Keyboard warriors such as yourself on the attack at every opportunity, so sad a life. I will gratiously exit so this topic can continue.

If you consider my response to be an attack on you it is only because in answer to me simply describing

a sequence of events that could suggest the start of a possible weakness in the rental market,

your suggestion was astonishingly naive for someone who say he has purchased real estate in Bangkok.

Are you saying there it doesnt matter what rents are being paid as long as capital

values are going up ?:D

Then you accuse my friend of having " told porkies "to me.

One effect of this thread and others like it is that at least its eeks to scrutinize some of the

misinformation and market hype which is being put forward

by people with a vested interest. Your suggestion about a conspiracy to set asking rents

twenty-five percent above the market by six individual owners at the same time

requires a considerable imagination :o

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Midas, you may find they had INCREASED the rent by 25% to start with due to lack of interest, we all know what they do when things are quite, they pump up the price. So in reality he is getting market value. 2 sides to every coin however this thread really is about property prices and not rent. I don't see any fire sales yet and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

Now who should we believe ....." zorro1 " or Dr Chakratham Thammasak............ :o

Thailand - The Nation 2009-02-09

Dr Chakratham Thammasak, deputy permanent secretary at The Public Health Ministry

said the ministry believes this economic crisis is worse than the one that hit Thailand in 1997..............

Only a matter of time until it catches up with the condo market........... :D

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I bought into trendy condo sukhumvit 13 around 18 months ago and was one of the first to move in. the last unit sold 2 months ago for 28,000bht/sqm more Than I paid, one floor down. The building is fully sold out. I think that may answer a few questions

I have also purchased another in a different building.

Well there are definitely some uncharacteristic things happening in the

rental market-and such a huge disconnect in these 2 markets ( i.e. sale prices and rents )

cannot go on indefinitely ?

I am referring to the experience of someone I know living and working in Bangkok

who the weekend before last went hunting for a new condominium to rent.

He said there were 6 new fully furnished new condominiums in one building for rent by 6 different Thai owners

offered through the juristic persons office. He then contacted each owner separately

and arranged to hold six inspections one after the other the Sunday before last at 30 minute intervals.

His remarks to me were even during the inspection there was definitely a sense of anxiety if not desperation

by most of the owners and a feeling he said that not many people were looking.

Next day he submitted e-mail offers to all 6 owners and submitted offers

he said that were a little " tongue in cheek " to test the market and with a substantially reduced

rent from that being asked ( i.e. 25%+ ).

The following day he had already been contacted by 5 of the 6 owners

and unbelievably in three different cases the owners immediately accepted

his offer. This is definitely not characteristic of Thai people and he was

taken back because he didn't even expect to achieve this in one let alone three. :D

The situation with the remaining three is that another two owners came back with

counter offers still with substantial reductions and one came back with a somewhat

angry response. :o

But as we know there is a significant time lag in the property market and as far as the demand

side of the equation is concerned -I think this shows there is something changing even if it

slow to reveal itself ? Thais dont usually drop their pants like this :D

Rents have come down definately I have lowered mine by about 3% yes I know its small but its neough to still be full and for me to BUY another condo to rent out. All are ful except the new one which will be available in March. I am more expensive than any other studios at my complex but other owners dont offer what we do. ROI is still 12.5%

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sensible post and in touch with reality. 3-5% is to be expected. Funny part is I could sell my condos now for what I paid for them an pick up 30% on exchange rate

Aha zorro1 !

You said you very very rarely these days participate and yet here you are a bit of an old " Keyboard warrior " yourself :o

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[color="#FF0000"]Rents have come down definately[/color] I have lowered mine by about 3% yes I know its small but its neough to still be full and for me to BUY another condo to rent out. All are ful except the new one which will be available in March. I am more expensive than any other studios at my complex but other owners dont offer what we do. ROI is still 12.5%

Now that wasnt so hard to admit was it ?

and I even have our friend zorro who this morning said " however this thread really is about property prices and not rent " and

even he is now talking the market down :o

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Midas, you may find they had INCREASED the rent by 25% to start with due to lack of interest, we all know what they do when things are quite, they pump up the price. So in reality he is getting market value. 2 sides to every coin however this thread really is about property prices and not rent. I don't see any fire sales yet and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

Sorry to say Zorro that the second wave has not hit us just yet this is the lull before the storm. It will not be the same as lehman or bears but it is coming in May at the latest.

at 28000 A SQMETER YOU DID WELL.

And unfortuneitly things will get a lot worse in Europe.

Uk is in for a hard slog with 3 million imigrants in last 3 years. It's getting very though out there now

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okay I'm coming out retirement. Things are pretty horrific right now and the property market should have tanked big time already. Big time!! but it hasn't and apparently on Thai visa property was due for a collapse every year since 97. Its not the Thai style to slash prices nor has Thailand been effected by the sub prime drama that has affected the rest. Thais learned there lesson very well in the last collapse. Nobody knows what the future holds especially analysts , how could they have got it so wrong and IMO do the reverse of whatever they suggest. If they suggest a depression I would bank on a quicker than expected recovery :o

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okay I'm coming out retirement. Things are pretty horrific right now and the property market should have tanked big time already. Big time!! but it hasn't and apparently on Thai visa property was due for a collapse every year since 97. Its not the Thai style to slash prices nor has Thailand been effected by the sub prime drama that has affected the rest. Thais learned there lesson very well in the last collapse. Nobody knows what the future holds especially analysts , how could they have got it so wrong and IMO do the reverse of whatever they suggest. If they suggest a depression I would bank on a quicker than expected recovery :o

Oh how shocking ! The worldwide economic crisis is not unfolding according to the timetable of zorro1 :D

this is the same person incidentally who doesn't think there's any connection between rents and capital values :D

just because there is no apparent sub prime problem here doesn't mean this place is going to escape?

this is what the media were saying in different parts of the world yesterday

and anyone with a reasonable appreciation of economics

would have to be concerned with these comments

Thailand - The Nation 2009-02-09

Dr Chakratham Thammasak, deputy permanent secretary at The Public Health Ministry

said the ministry believes this economic crisis is worse than the one that hit Thailand in 1997..............

UK Independent. Tuesday, 10 February 2009

Ed Balls, the PM's closest ally, warns that downturn is ferocious and says impact will last 15 years

Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression

of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted.

In an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted

that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now.

He warned that events worldwide were moving at a "speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have

seen before" and banks were losing cash on a "scale that nobody believed possible".

USA Wall Street Journal 10 February 2009

The global downdraft is hitting the world's emerging economies with a speed and ferocity few imagined possible just months ago.

The pace of the turnaround has caught policy makers and investors off guard. In a matter of months, gauges of growth

in trade and industrial production in a number of countries went from passable to falling off a cliff; even domestic demand

is suffering. Asia's economies have posted the starkest declines, but the slide is evident from Latin America to Eastern Europe.

Australia Sydney Morning Herald February 10, 2009

Business confidence reversed December's gains and tumbled to a record low in January with the outlook for

employment and forward orders hitting recessionary levels.

Companies' confidence dropped to minus-32 index points last month, a new low for the 12-year history of the

National Australia Bank's survey. That compared with December's improvement to minus-20, following

Russia Reuters February 10, 2009

Russia will request negotiations with European and other foreign banks to postpone repayment on up to $US400 billion ($600 billion) of its private sector debt, Japan's Nikkei business daily said today.

The newspaper quoted a Russian banking industry official as saying up to $US400 billion in debt was at stake.

"As was the case last week when Fitch downgraded Russia, bad news about Russia basically becomes a factor for the euro to fall," said Takahide Nagasaki, chief foreign exchange strategist for Daiwa Securities SMBC.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Russia's sovereign rating to 'BBB' last Wednesday and said further cuts were possible due to low commodity prices, high capital outflows, melting reserves and corporate debt problems.

Fitch's downgrade followed one from Standard & Poor's in December, making it the second ratings cut for Russia since the end of its last major financial crisis in 1998, when Russia devalued the rouble and defaulted on $US40 billion of its debt.

Zorro what interesting data can you submit to support your lollipops and roses perspective ? :D

Edited by midas
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This discussion is likely to be intense so we should take a short break for some

topic related humour ............. :o

1. The US has made a new weapon that destroys people but keeps the building standing. It's called the stock market - Jay Leno

2. Do you have any idea how cheap stocks are? Wall Street is now being called Wall Mart Street - Jay Leno

3. The difference between a pigeon and a London investment banker. The pigeon can still make a deposit on a BMW.

4. What's the difference between a guy who lost everything in Las Vegas and an investment banker? A tie!

5. The problem with investment bank balance sheet is that on the left side nothing's right and on the right side nothing's left.

6. I want to warn people from Nigeria who might be watching our show, if you get any emails from Washington asking for money, it's a scam. Don't fall for it - Jay Leno

7. Bush was asked about the credit crunch. He said it was his favorite candy bar - Jay Leno

8. The rescue bill was about 450 pages. President Bush's copy is even thicker. They had to include pictures - Jay Leno

9. President Bush's response was to meet some small business owners in San Antonio last week. The small business owners are General Motors,

General Electric and Century 21 - Jay Leno

10. What worries me most about the credit crunch is that if one of my cheques is returned stamped 'insufficient funds', I won't know whether that refers to mine or the bank's.

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sorry but I missed the reports by the same people telling us of the massive slump and world wide recession about to happen. you know the same people telling us to buy Rio a over 100 6 mths ago. Now if you can show me those I would be very interested. Hindsight is wonderful however they got it wrong then why should they be right now? Whats it go to do with Thailand property. Please show me fire sales after all the topic is about THAI property. Just for the record I didntsay there was no relation between rent and property values, please show me where i said that. Iam a landlord and so is yabaaa its fact the last condo In my complex sold only a few months back for 28000 bht/sqm more. yabaaa has discounted by 3% not 25%

midas you are just A speculator so stick with guess work and your mates reports and cut n pastes. leave the real facts to us landlords, we love your rent money. All those poor buggers renting with oz or UK pension, very painful. Also bought when the baht was 31 big smiles for me

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sorry but I missed the reports by the same people telling us of the massive slump and world wide recession about to happen. you know the same people telling us to buy Rio a over 100 6 mths ago. Now if you can show me those I would be very interested. Hindsight is wonderful however they got it wrong then why should they be right now? Whats it go to do with Thailand property. Please show me fire sales after all the topic is about THAI property. Just for the record I didntsay there was no relation between rent and property values, please show me where i said that. Iam a landlord and so is yabaaa its fact the last condo In my complex sold only a few months back for 28000 bht/sqm more. yabaaa has discounted by 3% not 25%

midas you are just A speculator so stick with guess work and your mates reports and cut n pastes. leave the real facts to us landlords, we love your rent money. All those poor buggers renting with oz or UK pension, very painful. Also bought when the baht was 31 big smiles for me

zorro you can believe whatever makes you feel comfortable and I wish you well in the firestorm that lies ahead.

I dont worry about paying landlords like you because I merely use the rents I achieve from two lovely apartments I have

in Potts Point Sydney to pay my expenses in Bangkok.

The big difference is zorro if I ever need to sell either of my units- I can do so to anyone-you on the other hand

may find it hard to get a Thai purchaser ( because they don't like secondhand :o ) and chances are you'll have to rely

on another farang as long - as they are within the farang quota. The Bangkok condo market-

full smoke and mirrors.

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sorry but I missed the reports by the same people telling us of the massive slump and world wide recession about to happen. you know the same people telling us to buy Rio a over 100 6 mths ago. Now if you can show me those I would be very interested. Hindsight is wonderful however they got it wrong then why should they be right now? Whats it go to do with Thailand property. Please show me fire sales after all the topic is about THAI property. Just for the record I didntsay there was no relation between rent and property values, please show me where i said that. Iam a landlord and so is yabaaa its fact the last condo In my complex sold only a few months back for 28000 bht/sqm more. yabaaa has discounted by 3% not 25%

midas you are just A speculator so stick with guess work and your mates reports and cut n pastes. leave the real facts to us landlords, we love your rent money. All those poor buggers renting with oz or UK pension, very painful. Also bought when the baht was 31 big smiles for me

zorro you can believe whatever makes you feel comfortable and I wish you well in the firestorm that lies ahead.

I dont worry about paying landlords like you because I merely use the rents I achieve from two lovely apartments I have

in Potts Point Sydney to pay my expenses in Bangkok.

The big difference is zorro if I ever need to sell either of my units- I can do so to anyone-you on the other hand

may find it hard to get a Thai purchaser ( because they don't like secondhand :o ) and chances are you'll have to rely

on another farang as long - as they are within the farang quota. The Bangkok condo market-

full smoke and mirrors.

You must be kidding Just arrived from oz yesterday after 2 week biz trip. The oz market has S--t it self if you tried to sell now it will cost you big time so not sure why your down ramping Thai when oz is in a far worse shape, anyone can sell an asset in a fire sale. I sold my house 4 years ago in oz (thank god)You still haven't provided any proof that prices are being slashed here so on that note I'm just wasting my time chatting.

edit yes I know they dont like seconhand which is why I bought in a farang expat area 2mins from nana bts and 5 from asoke

Edited by zorro1
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You must be kidding Just arrived from oz yesterday after 2 week biz trip. The oz market has S--t it self if you tried to sell now it will cost you big time so not sure why your down ramping Thai when oz is in a far worse shape, anyone can sell an asset in a fire sale. I sold my house 4 years ago in oz (thank god)You still haven't provided any proof that prices are being slashed here so on that note I'm just wasting my time chatting.

I " down ramp " Thailand as you describe it because it is a less attractive property market

in so many ways e.g. have you compared the contents of the Strata Tiltes Act in Oz to the

Condominium Act in Thailand ? Who and how do you resolve disputes between

Condominium owners in Thailand ? How do you enforce fellow owners in Thailand

to pay their contributions?

Regarding the severity of the downturn THIS TIME AROUND ........... look at this :-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE&eurl

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it looks like a long vid so will get to it later as watching cnbc and those grubby bankers looking very nervous about to be grilled.

Wonder what happened to all the hotshot stockbrokers/investors that used to down ramp property here and Bragg about their 30% income from portfolios and how its soooo easy to go liquid unlike trying to sell a condo. I know them all by nick.Where are you now boys? long time no hear...

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[color="#FF0000"]Rents have come down definately[/color] I have lowered mine by about 3% yes I know its small but its neough to still be full and for me to BUY another condo to rent out. All are ful except the new one which will be available in March. I am more expensive than any other studios at my complex but other owners dont offer what we do. ROI is still 12.5%

Now that wasnt so hard to admit was it ?

and I even have our friend zorro who this morning said " however this thread really is about property prices and not rent " and

even he is now talking the market down :o

Ok girls easy. Each of my units is normally 14000 a month, now ive got 3 rented out at 13500 and one at 14000 the latest customer, however am insisting on a 1 year contract for the lower price. The 5th one Ill post at 13500 too.

Im happy enough with 12.5% Roi + bought most of them with the £ at 72 baht

Edited by yabaaaa
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What all these Bangkok condominium market " bulls " like zorro

( who claims the economic crisis must already over :o ) don't tell you in discussion

the weakness or otherwise of the market here is

Thailand hasn't even made a real dent in its liabilities from the previous

crisis in 1997 ?

Thailand is like the average family in the U.S. struggling

to keep going from day-to-day by living off its credit cards and how long

is that sustainable with the rest of the world now plunging even deeper ?

With a fall of 18% in VAT revenues alone things are going to get very tight.............? :D

PDMO unsure of 1997 debt authority

Bangkok Post

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI

9/02/2009

The central bank's Financial Institutions Development Fund incurred liabilities of 1.4 trillion baht during the crisis for its bailout of creditors and depositors of ailing banks and finance companies.

The liabilities have been restructured over the past several years through government bond issues. While the central bank is responsible for ultimately paying down the principal debt, the Finance Ministry must carry the interest cost of the bonds...................................................

The liabilities have been split into three lots, with 500 billion baht in the first lot to be paid down from annual profits generated by the central bank. Two other lots, of 112 billion and 776 billion, would be paid through returns from the central bank's general accounts.

From 1997 to 2007, however, the central bank has paid down just 31.6 billion baht for the first lot of 500 billion baht in debt.

full article :- http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...-debt-authority

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and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

ha ha ha.. Thanks for that.. Best laugh of the week !!

1-3 years recovery go back and read my post. Isn't it strange how the ASX has been up last 2 weeks whilst USA dying, Us ozzies realise the yanks are bankrupt and we are in quite good shape. My stock holdings long and entry price. Check out my posts I was a prolific poster but TV is deadbeat about futures and then I discovered Stocks!!! full time looking for bargains. Before you respond go to your trading platform and check out the current pricing below. Don'T tell me we are not near the bottom. I'm backing it with cash.

BHP 22

rio 35

kcn 2.32

ipl 2.27

aqa 2.33

lei 17.90 (avg)

bnb bugger (small spec buy) but still hurt

Now gents can you please at least explain to me why most`of my holdings are UP from their lows ???? simple we have bottomed otherwise this wouldnt be the case.

the rest of my stuff is in property and cash. I feel great!!!

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and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

ha ha ha.. Thanks for that.. Best laugh of the week !!

1-3 years recovery go back and read my post. Isn't it strange how the ASX has been up last 2 weeks whilst USA dying, Us ozzies realise the yanks are bankrupt and we are in quite good shape. My stock holdings long and entry price. Check out my posts I was a prolific poster but TV is deadbeat about futures and then I discovered Stocks!!! full time looking for bargains. Before you respond go to your trading platform and check out the current pricing below. Don'T tell me we are not near the bottom. I'm backing it with cash.

BHP 22

rio 35

kcn 2.32

ipl 2.27

aqa 2.33

lei 17.90 (avg)

bnb bugger (small spec buy) but still hurt

Now gents can you please at least explain to me why most`of my holdings are UP from their lows ???? simple we have bottomed otherwise this wouldnt be the case.

the rest of my stuff is in property and cash. I feel great!!!

Mate i hope you are right on this one and market has bottomed out ,time will tell, will keep an eye on those stocks ,for my money i like the top 4 Oz banks

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wednesday better guide for banks but just my opinion, anyway who cares really at the moment its like throwing darts, so many bargains.

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-551576

AAP

15/02/2009 4:25pm

<script src="http://g.adspeed.net/ad.php?do=js&zid=12959&wd=300&ht=250&target=_top" type=text/javascript> http://g.adspeed.net/ad.php?do=clk&aid...auth=A16846A951

The Australian share market is expected to open lower on Monday after a one per cent fall on Wall Street on Friday following concerns about US Banks.

"In our market on Monday, we'll be giving up 20 points and giving up the gains we had on Friday," AMP Investments chief economist Shane Oliver said.

"Wall Street had a bit of a fall, of about one per cent, mainly on the back of renewed concerns about US banks and overnight the Futures trading with respect to the Australian market suggest a fall of about 20 points.

"The good news was that the Obama stimulus package passed through both houses of congress. But I doubt that will be much help - I think that's been factored in already."

On the local market on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 closed up 44.8 points, or 1.27 per cent, at 3,559.1, while the broader All Ordinaries gained 38.2 points, or 1.1 per cent to 3,496.7.

However, in the US on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 82.35 points, or 1.04 per cent, to finish at 7,850.41, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 8.35 points, or one per cent, to 826.84.

Mr Oliver said the main driver of the Australian market would be the profit reports, with more announcements about dividend cuts and capital raising to come.

"So far, (the profit reports) have been better than feared, so that's held our market up," he said.

Among those reporting their interim profit results this week are Austereo Group Ltd, Crane Group Ltd, Wesfarmers Ltd, Futuris Corporation Ltd, The Reject Shop Ltd, Sky Television Ltd and Billabong International Ltd.

While Woodside Petroleum Ltd, Iluka Resources Ltd, Santos Ltd, Lihir Gold Ltd, Newmont Mining Corporation and Caltex Australia Ltd will report their annual profit results this week.

"There is also a bit of weakness in commodity prices. The oil price was up, but other commodities including gold were down a little bit - so that would be a bit of a drag on the mining stocks," Mr Oliver said.

"But it will probably be the banks that will be the weakest following a five or six per cent fall in US banks on Friday."

Mr Oliver said there was a lot of information coming out of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week.

"So, interest rate will be the focus of attention locally along with profit result," he said.

On Monday, RBA head of international department Chris Ryan addresses 2009 Currency Management Forum on The Australia Foreign Exchange Market.

The RBA monthly board minutes for its February 3 meeting will come out on Tuesday, while on Wednesday in Sydney RBA assistant governor of economics Malcolm Edey will address the Committee for Economic Development of Australia economic and political overview 2009 conference.

On Thursday, the RBA monthly bulletin will be released and on Friday RBA governor Glenn Stevens will appear before House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.

Edited by zorro1
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and we must be fairly close to the bottom of the global crisis

ha ha ha.. Thanks for that.. Best laugh of the week !!

1-3 years recovery go back and read my post. Isn't it strange how the ASX has been up last 2 weeks whilst USA dying, Us ozzies realise the yanks are bankrupt and we are in quite good shape. My stock holdings long and entry price. Check out my posts I was a prolific poster but TV is deadbeat about futures and then I discovered Stocks!!! full time looking for bargains. Before you respond go to your trading platform and check out the current pricing below. Don'T tell me we are not near the bottom. I'm backing it with cash.

BHP 22

rio 35

kcn 2.32

ipl 2.27

aqa 2.33

lei 17.90 (avg)

bnb bugger (small spec buy) but still hurt

Now gents can you please at least explain to me why most`of my holdings are UP from their lows ???? simple we have bottomed otherwise this wouldnt be the case.

the rest of my stuff is in property and cash. I feel great!!!

Oh boy thats a big statement, i hope your right but i have a sinking feeling you are living in quite the fantasy world, we dumped a 2 bedroom in Plaza Athénée about 6 months ago thank god, couldnt imagine trying to do it today...

Edited by tb86
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Not really most stocks are down 70 to 95% from there highs just 6 months ago. Its just math. But of course we are in uncharted waters and maybe the dow could go minus??? scary scary. congrats on off loading your condo probably at the peak.

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Weakness Observed In Bangkok Luxury Condominium Market

Bangkok Real Estate News

February 8, 2009

The luxury condominium market will drop in 2009 as the global economic downturn continues to shrink the much-required pool of cash-wealthy foreign investors, local property analysts said.

They forecast that luxury condominium prices would go down by 10-20% in the first six months of 2009. Existing high prices will suppress local command they said.

“Luxury condominiums depend on overseas purchasers. With the global recession, there are no purchasers left,” said Thaninee Satirareungchai, property analyst, KGI Securities (Thailand).

UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) anticipates sector prices to go down by 10-15% to encourage demand from Thai purchasers, who tend to go for luxury single-detached houses to a certain extent than condominiums.

Thai law stops foreigners from purchasing land; however they are permitted to purchase up to 49% of the commercial space in a condominium, therefore the sector's reliance on overseas investors.

A drop will offer investment prospect for bargain hunters, said Veena Naidu, head of research, UOB Kay Hian (Thailand).

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zorro,

i wonder if u really understand how the economy works?

i will ask u a simple question - WHAT IS THE SINGLE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN EVERY RECESSION/DEPRESSION??

if u don;t know the answer - i offer clues in past posts

Edited by shochu
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